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NZDCAD ideaNZDCAD trend is bearish. But for now, this pair is on a demand area. 0.826 to 0.830 range area, so if we want to prepare to buy this currency, we must wait for the change of this downward trend to an upward trend, in this case breaking descending channel and breaking 0.8369 level as a resistance and pullback to this level can be prepared to a buy opportunity. But if we don't consider the demand area and give more credit to the descending channel and sellers' pressure, the price reaching the 0.833 area can be attractive for reselling. In this case, the next demand area at 0.815 rates can be your Take profit.
by Alisabbaghi
Wait for better levelsFundamental View Buyers of gold in recession, or sellers of it for a stronger dollar? Volatility in the bond market and uncertainty about interest rate cuts are pushing the dollar higher, dimming the appeal of gold (XAU). Last week, the recovery of the US dollar affected the price of gold (XAU) and put pressure on gold. Because market participants assessed the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in May. However, there are still many buyers and markets for gold, who see the fear of stagnation more strongly. Now for this week. There are many things in the US economic calendar that will help traders know what to expect from the Fed. Investors are monitoring Economic growth data (GDP), jobless claims on Thursday, and PCE data on Friday. The GDP print is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.0% during this period, which means that a recession is not imminent. And If the PCE index prints much higher than expected, it reduces the likelihood that the Fed will hold off on rate hikes in May, especially if economic data is generally positive. With this data, Investors evaluate the interest rate increase in May. Although the market expects a 25 basis point hike on May 3, uncertainty surrounding the possibility of a rate cut this year has caused volatility in the US bond market. The volatility of the bond market causes the dollar to move. The market is currently looking at a 25 percent hike, with the direction of travel determined by whether the Fed will hold off on interest rate changes after that. While this could support gold prices, the recent market rally and overly technical conditions mean there is still scope for a downside if the Fed's rate outlook is confirmed. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 84.6% chance of a 25% rate hike in May, with interest rate cuts expected later in the year. Higher interest rates reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding bullion. Technical View Gold has taken a downward trend in the four-hour time frame. This precious metal has locked itself in the TSE:1960 to TADAWUL:2020 area. It shows that gold needs some drivers to rise or fall. Any sign of information that leads traders to fear further recession could push gold to the TADAWUL:2020 - TSE:2048 highs. But what we think is the better-than-expected print for the US economy makes more downward pressure on XAU. Gold is currently trading at the price of TSE:1982 dollars and is on a dynamic resistance. There is a possibility of a slight rise for gold at the beginning of the week, but we don't have any rush to trade. If the economic data encourages us to sell gold, we will wait and do it in the HKEX:2000 to TADAWUL:2020 area, and if we going to buy gold, we will do it in TSE:1960 or in the important key area of 1920 dollars.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alisabbaghi
Gold Long ideaAfter a 1% decrease in the previous days, gold rose to about 2013 dollars due to the depreciation of the dollar on the eve of the release of key US inflation data. Traders now know that the Federal Reserve is 70 percent likely to raise interest rates by another 25 percent in May. Data released last week showed US employers continued to hire at a strong pace in March, while the International Monetary Fund said in a report on Monday that interest rates in the US and other industrialized nations will return to very low levels. Financial markets have been pessimistic about the U.S. economy since some U.S. banks collapsed in March. Elsewhere, data on Saturday showed that consumer inflation in China, the biggest consumer of bullion, fell to an 18-month low in March. The past has arrived. Gold is in an Over Bought area but We expect a short-term rise for gold. From the technical point of view, the broken 2003 and Polk at that level can provide a good opportunity to enter into a purchase transaction. Falling below the 1988 level can invalidate the buying scenario. The resistance levels of 2021 and 2032 can be your first profit limit.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Alisabbaghi
GBPUSD long/Buy ideaGBP/USD needs balanced GDP data to climb. The pound has been positive for several months, benefiting from the surprising economic strength of the UK. On the other hand, the US dollar has fallen behind, but the recent concerns about the global economy have moved the flows towards the safe dollar. Markets are mostly bearish today, with the only catalyst for their movement being non-farm payrolls data. In order to see the correction of the US dollar, despite the disappointment, we need below $200,000 to force the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates. But not so weak that it can ensure the flow of orders in US dollars. Weak wage growth will also help. In such a case, GBPUSD has the space to increase levels up to 1.252. But to enter the purchase transaction, one should wait for the failure of the 1.245 level to enter the transaction at this level in the pullback.
Long
by Alisabbaghi
Gold Growth stopped at a strong level of $2000Weekly gold Analysis Fundamental View: Gold Growth stopped at a strong level of $2000 Last week, we mentioned the buy sentiments of gold as a safe-haven asset. Now that the market has priced banking crises what are the gold movement drivers? Recession, yes fear of stagnation is remain. Fear of recession in the global economy remains and now the gold buyers are still in their long positions. Why do the world's banks buy gold? On the other hand, the multi-polarization of economic powers and the formation of new regions in the east by China and Russia, and the declining influence of the US dollar as the global reserve currency has been the main driver of gold's rally to the $2,000 level last week. Undoubtedly, China and Russia intend to free themselves from the vortex of the global economy, which is heavily dependent on the US dollar. The concern about the extreme fluctuations of the dollar and the euro has caused the demand for gold to increase from the central banks of the world. Concerns about the trade war and the possibility of a currency war between China and the United States are also considered important factors. Last week, we read in the news that China made its first liquefied natural gas transaction in yuan through the Shanghai Oil and Gas Exchange. Also, last week, China and Brazil announced that they will carry out trade and financial exchanges between them in Riel (Brazil's currency) and Yuan, to which Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the Middle East have also been added. The result is less use of US dollars and more use of gold. Technical View The closing price in the previous month's candle shows the strong power of major buyers of gold, and this defends the upward trend of gold in the long term. From a technical point of view, we are currently in the overbought zone for Gold/XAU. This does not mean that gold will go down. Rather, we consider it only a price correction and collecting more liquidity at lower prices for new buyers. $1955, $1937, and $1910 are our main support levels
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Alisabbaghi
A safe haven for every traderFundamental View At any time in history, if any risk enters the market, traders turn to safe areas to protect their assets. In the past few months, gold has been the best safest place for all financial risks. From recession to financial crises and recently banking problems. As a result, traders withdraw their assets from banks and keep them safe in gold. In the last week, gold grew by about 9%, and the only reason for that is the gold's paradise, traders took their money out of bankrupt banks and invested in gold. Even before the financial crisis, many analysts believed that the possibility of a pivot in FED monetary policies was imminent. Now with the bank crisis, Sooner or later, this would happen. so the conditions are set for a bullish gold market. Technical View From a technical point of view, gold is in an over-bought area and retail traders may be thinking about short on these levels of gold. but what the smart money has entered into gold is heavy long. Therefore, in the short term, before breaking the last high resistance levels, 2000 and 2070 dollars, we will probably see the price of gold in side way. On the other hand, Markets don't rises and fall like a waterfall and need a correction, but in no way is this correction suitable for selling, you should lurk and wait to buy gold at lower levels. $1946, $1911, and $1877 are the main support levels. Calendar events On Tuesday we have the Australian central bank's meeting. Wednesday is our volatile forex day. The FOMC and the FED interest rate decision will strongly impact the gold price. any sign of hawkish policy makes pressure on gold and any dovish policy pushes gold higher.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Alisabbaghi
Gold, Short-Term sellWeekly gold analysis 📌 Key points and overview: We can think about it to buy at lower prices with the lowest risk. Disappointing home and building sales data could bolster expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its rate of contraction. End-of-week flows could change the sentiment and play an important role in keeping gold on the sidelines ahead of next week's Fed meeting minutes. 📝 Analysis: About 10% growth last week! What can be said? Sharpe's move last week narrows the way for Saud in the short term. Gold needs correction. The Federal Reserve will likely indicate that it will continue to raise interest rates. What we expect according to recent job market data. It is true that we are cautious because the change in the contractionary policies of the Federal Reserve is likely, but we cannot expect such a short-term reduction in inflation data alone. We will need at least a few months of consecutive downward inflation. On the other hand, the sudden growth of gold last week showed how attractive the price of gold is for buyers, I mean the prices of $1,620. They think these prices are cheap. Since we don't know how strong the Federal Reserve will be in its upcoming meetings, or we don't know if they will talk more softly, selling gold is a bit risky. We have to wait because the Fed's job with inflation is not done yet. On the other hand, many buyers are waiting at the low prices area. Our suggestion is simple, let's wait for this last growth of gold to rest in a correction, we can think about it to buy in lower prices with lowest risk. The Fed's pressure on the dollar to control inflation will put the US into a recession. We cannot accurately determine the magnitude of this recession, but what is clear is that it will be a recession, and the winners of this recession are gold buyers. 📉 Technical view: The head and shoulder pattern is ready to be broken on the 1-hour time frame. The tide of this pattern can make gold bearish in the short term. You can accompany gold in the downward movement by keeping the risk low because the Federal Reserve supports you. But our team tries to be on the lookout to be a buyer of gold at lower prices. 🔸 Failure of 1745$ levels can leads the way down for gold to fall to the 1720$ and 1700$ levels. 📰 Important calendar events: This week we will have construction data. Disappointing data could reinforce expectations of a slowdown in the Fed's pace of contraction. The decline in the value of the US dollar can be the engine for gold to rise again. However, End-of-week flows could change sentiment and play an important role in keeping gold on the sidelines ahead of next week's Fed meeting minutes.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Alisabbaghi
3 possible gold movement depended on FED decisionsWeekly gold analysis 📝 Analysis: Gold in the past week! In the past week, gold has stopped following an uptrend as the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, which rose nearly 1% in the last few days of the week, forced gold to pull back. Another reason for the decline in gold can be attributed to the rebound correction of the dollar index last weekend. But in relation to this week, The issue that analysts and big traders in the market have a consensus on is the risk and the possibility of slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Over the past months, we have consistently seen extremely aggressive Federal Reserve policies. Aggressive increases in interest rates put pressure on the forex market. What we saw in both gold and cryptocurrency. But what is now apparent to traders are two issues 1. Slowing down the rate of inflation increases the speculation for the softening of the Federal Reserve's policies 2. Although inflation has not decreased significantly, we have seen decreases in the labor market Analysts and traders predict the possibility of the last cycle of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve We never trade based on probabilities, but we tell all the possibilities in order to have a correct view of the market and avoid ambiguous trades. So, according to the information mentioned above, we will be waiting for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, November 2, together with the big market traders. The results obtained from this meeting will give us a better view of the future of gold. 📉 Technical view: 🔸 $1620 is our strong support area and $1680 🔸 By technical point of view, if I am looking to buy gold, I'm waiting for the price of gold stabilize above the rate of $1,700 🔸 But Personally, We are looking for another sell opportunity at $1680 and $1700 levels, and for taking any long positions, fundamentally, We will only think about it when there is a clear change in FED policies. 📰 Important calendar events: This week, a higher print of China MANUFACTURING PMI could be a driver for starting the week and the hope of the market. And the highlighted events are US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI and JOLTS JOB OPENINGS(SEP) because they are predicted tools for Wednesday 2Nov FOMC STATEMENT and FED INTEREST RATE DECISION Any higher print could push down the gold and stocks
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Alisabbaghi
Gold short-term rise does not reduce the pressure of the FEDGold in the past week! The news of the Wall Street Journal and the possible intervention of the yen at the end of the week caused great fluctuations in the market and caused the gold market to turn green. The market is looking for clues about these fluctuations to make sure, it has the power to join these fluctuations or the news. The Wall Street Journal reported that some members of the Federal Reserve are considering slowing the pace of rate hikes after November as volatility and uncertainty grip financial markets. Therefore, many traders thought that it was the end of the Federal Reserve. This week’s calendar is full of important news. First, we have the meeting of the central bank of Canada ahead of which the markets expect an increase in interest rates, but there is a difference of opinion about the amount of this increase. Meanwhile, in Europe, a 0.75% increase by the European Central Bank is almost certain and now the emphasis is on the press conference. Finally, we come to the Bank of Japan, where all experts believe that there is currently no plan to increase interest rates. Considering the upward momentum of gold and the intervention of the Central Bank of Japan in the promissory note market, it is possible that we will continue to see growth in gold, but we do not suggest that you follow the gold market in order to buy. We are not yet at the end of the contractionary policy cycle and this could keep pressure on gold. The short-term rise of gold does not reduce the pressure of the Federal Reserve in the market. Although gold is at attractive prices, making it an attractive long-term buy, it will remain bearish in the short term as banks pursue monetary tightening policies and the Federal Reserve is not yet ready to turn around its policies, which supports the US dollar and will put pressure on gold. Big traders think of buying gold only when there is no more pressure from the Federal Reserve and the growth of the dollar, and the first signs of this should be followed by successive reductions in inflation. $1670 and $1680 is string resistance and $1620 is your support area
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Alisabbaghi
Weekly gold analysis and opportunity📝 Weekly gold Gold is trying to go down to $1620 area because of U.S inflation and last CPI print Over the past few months, any increasing sign in US inflation has caused gold to fall because it forces the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve will increase the interest rate with the increase in inflation, but on the other hand, the only issue that can stop the increase in interest rates is the employment data and the increase of the unemployed. Following the consumer price index and inflation data, the US dollar recovered from its weekly lows and put downward pressure on gold. Strong U.S. consumer inflation numbers reaffirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path. Because we knew this information, we could predict the trend of the last week correctly. We said that any correction of the price of gold upwards can provide a new selling position. According to CME FedWatch, the U.S. dollar's strong growth comes from a 99% expectation of a 75bp interest rate hike in November, a 74 percent chance of a 50 basis point hike in December, and possibly a series of smaller hikes in February and March. As long as the current macro environment holds, more downside is likely for gold. Considering the market's reaction to last week's inflation data, we predict that market traders will prepare themselves for the aggressiveness of the next FOMC session. 🔻 The leading economic data this week is data on home sales and building permits 🔻 In addition to economic data, we should focus on the events of Russia and Ukraine Political,military tensions 🔻 By the technical point of view, the next target of sellers is $1620 and any retracement to the $1660-$1670 is another sell opportunity.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Alisabbaghi
AUDUSD short idea Fundamental bias for this pair is Bearish, because of Strong USD in sake of hawkish monitory policy and neutral bias for AUS because of decrease in China's economic growth and the problems of Corona in China, which caused problems in the supply chain Daily trend is sell AUD 10Y bond yield: 3.976 U.S. 10Y: 3.697 Most of Retail traders are in long position so this is another sell opportunity. This opportunity can be open a sell at 0.64888 and another sill limit at 0.66234 area
Short
by Alisabbaghi
Long on GOLD, just for short-term📝 Weekly gold From the beginning of 2022 to this moment, It was the best for the US dollar. In the last 9 months, this global reserve currency has taken full advantage of the increase in interest rates, risk-averse flows, and the lack of a suitable alternative during the recession. In last Powell speak, he said, would do whatever it takes to control inflation, even if the measures lead to recession. This strengthened the US dollar again and kept the rise of gold. ◽️ A strong labor market has convinced the Fed chief that the economy can withstand the central bank's contractionary policies without going into recession According to this, interest rates will remain at high levels for a while ◽️ Gold has room to see higher prices but, we have to be more careful about our trades when FED is ready for another new hike. Currently, the market has priced in an 85% probability of a 0.75% interest rate hike for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. ◽️ This week's economic data is very important like previous weeks because inflation data (CPI) can show the roadmap of the central bank and how successful it is in curbing inflation. Inflationary expectations have decreased slightly and if it continues for several months, it will lead traders to bet on reducing hawkish policies. A weaker release data could be pressure on the USD and could push the gold too and the effect could be just for a short-term Because we know about the policies of the central bank and the 4% target at the end of the year 🔻 What our team predicts is that the dollar will have a downward bias this week due to lower inflation expectations, and for that reason, gold can grow in the short term. but keep in mind, that the mid-term bias of the US dollar is bullish and Gold is bearish. So you should expect a little upward return for gold. 🔻 Your support levels could be $1690 and $1700, and the resistance for your long positions is $1728 and $1745 🔻 A price fixing above the $1728 area can lead to higher rates for gold. District $1745 and $1760
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Alisabbaghi
Short on EURThe EURUSD currency pair follows the parity rate of one at the ECB meeting. EURUSD has bounced back from a good low level since the beginning of the week, which is due to the news of increased interest rates. But the point is that the expectations from the European Central Bank have increased and this issue provides more downward space for EURUSD movements. The possibility of a 75 percent increase in prices is valued. At the sound of the European Central Bank announcing a half percent increase, the euro will fall. With an increase in interest rates by 75 percent, the event "buy rumors and sell in news" is expected. will have. In addition, without a commitment to do whatever is necessary to reduce inflation, the euro will continue to lag behind the US dollar. Any forecast of a recession in the euro area could reduce expectations of aggressive ECB actions and would be negative for the euro. From a technical point of view, as well as with the increase of interest rates by the central bank, the price of this currency pair can reach higher levels in the short term, and due to the long-term downward outlook, recession, and high inflation, and the energy crisis, entering the selling position from the high to The rates of 0.9901 and 0.98546 will be valuable. The resistances of 1.0046 and 1.009 can limit emotional growth. Apply proper risk. wish you the best
Short
by Alisabbaghi
2
Weekly Gold analysis📝 Weekly gold ◽️ Gold jumped more than 1 percent in its final days after last week's sharp decline, led by weaker U.S. jobs data, but remains under pressure from higher interest rates to continue its downtrend. ◽️ The number of jobs reported was close to market expectations and the market reaction to that data was neither good nor bad. But it had a same result for invetors. However, the jobs data was not very good and this makes the Federal Reserve pay more to continue its policies. ◽️ Gold remains under pressure due to the increase in interest rates by the world's central banks, which recently Europe also had to give in to this increase in interest rates. Because higher rates of banks with the lowest risk can be better than gold or any other assets with a lower yield. ◽️ As long as the current upward rally of the dollar continues, gold will also be dominated by the dollar on the margins, but important thing is that the dollar has been buying at the upper areas for a long time, and any speculators taking profit can be a strong driver for gold buyers. ◽️ The meetings of the ECB, BOC, and Australian RBA for their interest rate hike next week can melt some frozen attention from the US dollar to themselves, and this can be a correction for the dollar and a little rise for gold. 🔻 From a technical point of view, the decline and stabilization of the gold price below the price of 1680 will leave no way for gold to rise. But our analysis team sees the price of gold above $1,700 for at least this week because everything is set for a short-term turnaround. The pullback of gold to the level of $1,700 can raise gold to $1,728.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alisabbaghi