Short-Term Outlook: ZN Bonds will decline to 109.16$.I. Bearish Momentum:
The ZN bonds market has recently displayed signs of bearish momentum, with several key indicators pointing towards a potential downturn. One of the most notable factors contributing to this sentiment is the presence of strong seller volume, indicating that there is significant downward pressure on bond prices.
II. Seller Dominance:
Seller dominance can be a powerful indicator of market sentiment. When sellers outnumber buyers, it often leads to downward price movements. In the case of ZN bonds, the sellers have been in control, suggesting that the short-term bias leans towards a bearish outlook.
III. Price Target: 109.16:
Based on the current market conditions and the prevalence of seller dominance, it is reasonable to anticipate a decline in ZN bond prices. Our short-term price target is set at 109.16, which reflects the potential support level where prices may find temporary stabilization.
IV. Intraday Resistance: 110.31:
In addition to the seller dominance, there is a notable intraday resistance level at 110.31. This resistance level acts as an obstacle to any upward price movement and can further support the notion of a downward price trend. Traders should pay close attention to this level as it may provide an opportunity to enter short positions.
In conclusion, the ZN bonds market appears poised for a short-term decline to the 109.16 price area, supported by seller dominance and the presence of an intraday resistance level at 110.31. As a bonds trader, it's vital to remain vigilant and adaptable to changing market conditions while implementing effective risk management strategies. The financial markets are dynamic, and staying informed is essential to making well-informed trading decisions.
ZN
Huge Volume 08/25/2022, and an important level was brokenMBK method is very interesting, this is an important level that was broken on 08/25/2022, in zn and also in zb. The t bonds markets are tending to go down with this interesting configuration. this level was tested Three times, on 8 July, 11 July, and 21 July.
Elliott Wave View: Ten Year Notes (ZN) Looking to Extend LowerShort term View in Ten Year Notes (ZN) suggests that rally to 120’16 ended wave ((4)). Internal subdivision of wave ((4)) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave A of ((4)) ended at 120’04 and dips in wave B of ((4)) ended at 118’23. Final leg higher wave C ended at 120’16 which completed wave ((4)). Wave ((5)) lower is currently in progress with internal subdivision as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. The Notes still needs to break below previous wave ((3)) low on 6/15/2022 at 114’07 to rule out a double correction in wave ((4))
Down from wave ((4)), wave 1 ended at 117’18 and rally in wave 2 ended at 119’06. Internal of wave 2 unfolded as a zigzag where wave ((a)) ended at 119’03 and wave ((b)) ended at 117’24. Final leg wave ((c)) ended at 119’06 which completed wave 2. Wave 3 lower is currently in progress and a break below wave 1 at 117’18 should better confirm the extension lower. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 117’28 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 119. Near term, as far as pivot at 120’17 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
Yields / Fed Funds / Rates / Inflation / 007s / TLT / ZN / ZBYou can't fix silly.
You can't fix stupid.
The Bond Market isn't going to fix anything, it assures ruin.
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Buy the Dip hasn't quite worked out.
TLT will head to Sub 52.
You were warned long ago exactly what is happening would.
And explained in no uncertain terms exactly why.
DX back to 125?
Yeah... it's how you end up in ruin. Europe first.
TNX Yield times 2.81 - follow along or lose.
TNX ZN TKT ZB - 10Year / 20Year / 30YearSh_t Mixed remain Bonds... every flight to Safety has been utterly and systematically
crushed.
It will be again and again as our Bond Market losses its Pillars of which there are 4.
One by one these are failing.
Longer-term, the lose/lose proposition will compound.
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Short term, we'll see how YCC and an overall Market Panic can trend Yields.
The Fed has permitted the Bond Market to generate the necessary adjustments.
Strenght - historically has been in control of only the short end.
Operation twist is no longer relevant, the FED can simply clip coupons and trend into
expiration of Holdings while reinvesting across the entire Curve.
Sadly, engaging in Yield Curve Control (YCC) crossed the Rubicon.
My thesis has been proven entirely correct - instability by design.