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EUR/USD Currency pair after reflection at the beginning of the week from the support level 1.1216, still moves in a local channel growth. Despite today's peak at 1.1361 we can be seen that the market is struggling with a cross-resistance level at 1.1343, which may ultimately be a strong support for the supply side. Thursday's GDP reading may be the signal for a strong movement in either party. In this instance increases are possible? If the reading turns out well below market expectations, the demand should have no problems with wywindowaniem course around 1,1385-96 level and 1.1465. In my opinion, the GDP reading should not be blatantly weak which should support the supply side. This will mean that we are returning to the inheritance and the exchange rate will move towards the recent lows at 1.1240 levels and 1,1213-18. Variant downward seems to be more likely.
Short
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (18.04-22.04)Currency pair after a recent decline from 1.1465 to 1.1234 level currently located in a local correction. From a technical point of view, the correction should not exceed the level of 1,1322-25. (The lower limit of consolidation, which coincides with the 38.2% fibo recent declines). Then the supply side should once again take the initiative and head towards the last lows at 1,1234-40. After breaking support supply may lead to a test of support at 1,1213-18 (maximum of March 10, which coincides with the 61.8% fibo increases from 0.8231 to 1.6038). The next support level is 1.1144. If there is a deepening decline further props will 1,1058-80 area. The daily RSI indicates further declines. Alternative variant involves breaking the resistance level at 1,1322-25 (euro-dollar exchange rate will return to the interior of consolidation).
Short
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 14/04/16Negative divergence indicator of weakening uptrend proved to be prophetic. The supply side has used the above signal and at present, the currency pair is in the adjustment increases with the level of 1,1144-1,1465. Declines stopped at around the level 1.1266 (61.8% fibo recent increases). Given the strong oversold, we can assume that the demand SHOULD lead to a correction of growth in the area of resistance at 1,1325-43. (Lower limit of consolidation, which coincides with the 38.2% decline from the abolition of 1,1465-1,1273). Then the supply side should lead to deeper declines. Further props levels are 1.1240 (peak March 16) and 1,1215-18 (peaks of March 10). It should, however, keep in mind Thursday's readings, which can change the image discussed currency pair. Alternative version of a return to the interior of consolidation 1,1325-1,1465.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USDToday's session has not led to break permanently recent highs and as a result there has been to determine the further direction. However, looking from the perspective of technical analysis chart of the interval 1D, we can see that the RSI shows negative divergence, which may be a signal reversal. If this state of affairs will continue also during tomorrow's session, we can assume the thesis that the level of 1.1465 was a peak from which started the correction. Considering the amount of data during Wednesday's session, we can not exclude further (perhaps impulsive) increases towards 1,1465-95. Anyway resistance zone, which indicated should defend, which in the long term, it may start a correction. In this case, the supply side once again directs toward support at 1,1325-43. When it comes to the break we get a clear signal that the Eurodollar a correction phase.
Short
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review ( 11.04-15.04 )Moving on to the analysis of the Eurodollar, it is worth quoting a curiosity about the strength of the dollar in April in previous years. It turns out that April is one of the worst months for the dollar. For example, we may use the last 5 years (EUR / USD), when the euro strengthened against the dollar in April fourfold. The exception here is April 2012. Looking more broadly at the foreign exchange market should be stressed here that the dollar lost the most in April against commodity currencies. A currency pair is currently at 1.1402 horizontal below the important resistance zone, which I wrote about several times in my daily reports. The demand side is certainly not yet said its last word and according to my preferred option is an attack on the last peaks at levels 1,1437-56, whose defeat opens the way towards the resistance level at 1.1495. Whereas the density of the resistance to be expected of a strong attacking the supply side to w / the resistance. Therefore, to overcome the march level of 1.1495 seems unlikely, which could be a pretext to develop a larger correction. (Certainly, many investors have set short order around 1,1456-95). Support for the upward trend is the zone between 1,1325-43 levels (peak of 17 March). Given the current monetary policy of central banks, the ECB and the Fed, we can say with certainty that the differences begin to fade. This in turn should support the common currency, which in the longer term should strengthen against the dollar. With this in mind we can risk saying that eventually comes to breaking the 1.1495 level. In this case, the path towards the 1.1885 level seems to be open.
Long
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (04.04-08.04)The currency pair reached a very strong resistance zone, located between 1,1437-95. Due to the very strong buying and the high density of these resistances, the beginning of the coming week should pass under the sign of the correction weakening of the euro against the dollar. Therefore, you must reckon with the defense of the above-mentioned resistance by the supply side and the start of a correction, which would bear part of the gains from 1.1144 to 1.1437. The first props should be 1,1367-76 levels (peak of 11 February, which coincides with the 23.6% fibo recent increases). Further props will zone levels between 1,1325-43 (peak on March 17, which covers the 38.2% fibo recent increases). If the supply side will lead to a deepening of the correction, account must be taken back to around the level of 1.1290. After completion of the correction expect an attack on the last peaks of the level of 1.1495, inclusive. I would like to emphasize that around 1.15 formed a strong barrier to the demand side in the last several months, which is presented on the chart with the interval 1M. Any defeat last level opens the way towards 1.1885.
Short
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 03/30/16Today's strong growth over the important resistance located in the area of 1,1220-45, open the demand side of the road to higher price levels. The next targets for the demand should be the levels of 1.1343 (peak on March 17) and 1.1373 (maximum of 11 of February). In the longer term I would expect growth toward resistance levels are located at 1,1441-60 (peaks of 17 and 18 September) and 1.1495. In my opinion, further increases may be preceded by a correction, which should not exceed the level of 1.1245. Then the demand side should move out another attack towards resistance 1.1303 and 1.1343.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 03/29/16On Tuesday after the holiday weekend on the parquet back investors from Europe, which should revive the currency market during the early hours of the morning. Relevant data will appear only in the second half of the day, when we will know the consumer confidence index by. Conference Board. Investors will also pay attention to statements by members of the FED (Williams, Dudley). Particularly noteworthy occurrence Fed president Janet Yellen. According to the technical analysis, the demand side of the defense support at 1.1144 took the initiative and led counterattack, which led back to the 1.12 level. Nearby hours should show to what extent become the demand side. If demand is thinking about further increases this should lead to a continuation of support at 1,1187-89, which will put the attack on the zone 1,1220-45. This area is an important resistance (peak after the FOMC meeting) and on the outcome, will determine the further movement of the currency pair discussed. Moving on to the crux of the matter, I would like to point out that overcoming these resistances opens the way to higher price levels. The next resistance levels are 1.1285 and 1.1343. | In the longer term, the level of 1.1495 would be in the range of demand. In the event, however, the demand side failed to break through w / the resistance, a return toward the major support at 1.1144 seems to be inevitable. Any of his fracture, can lead to a stronger correction towards 1.1083 and 1.1021 levels.
by RobertPapon
2
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (28.03-01.04)The situation on the eurodolarze has not changed and is consistent with what I presented in previous reports. For the record, let me add that the currency pair is in a correction of recent increases. Due to the proximity of support at 1.1144 (38.2% fibo abolition), the voice has come the demand side, which is trying to move toward the counterattack last local peaks. Therefore, it should be noted that in the next hours, the demand side should make another attempt to attack the local resistance 1,1187-1,1189. From the results of the success will depend on the future direction of the currency pair discussed. Therefore, it should be noted that if demand beats w / the resistance in this case, should be directed towards localized resistance levels 1,1220-1,1245. Any breaking them confirm that the fall from 1.1343 to 1.1144 was a technical correction and return to the further growth. The objectives will be the levels 1.1285, 1.1343 and 1.1495. Otherwise, if the demand will have difficulty overcoming resistance levels 1.1189 and 1,1220-45, account must be taken back towards support at 1.1144. The demand side will certainly defend support, because its defeat could lead to further depreciation towards 1.1083 and 1.1021 levels. Particularly test this latter level would worry about, because this level corresponds to the 61.8% fibo abolition of recent increases and adjustments not often tolerate higher values.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 24/03/16A currency pair is very close to the first important support level 1.1144, which should provide a barrier against further declines. Therefore, I will repeat what I said in an earlier report. The proximity of the support at 1.1144 (23.6% Fibo unbearable increases the level of 1,0821-1,1343) should activate the demand side and direct the course of the Eurodollar at higher price levels. On Wednesday, the demand made his first attempt to seize the initiative, but the movements of growth, they are at the moment quite meager (demand reached only around Tuesday's minimum 1.1187). This does not change the fact that the demand side will certainly defend support, because its defeat could lead to further depreciation towards 1.1083 and 1.1021 levels. Another re-test 1.1144 support will certainly be a great opportunity to open long positions. To summarize the above considerations, I would expect within the next few hours trying to derive some upward movement toward the next resistance level at 1.12. The situation on the demand side to improve significantly if demand will overcome the resistance located at levels 1,1220-1,1245. In this case, the path to further growth will be opened. The objectives will be the levels 1.1285, 1.1343 and 1.1495.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 23/03/16The situation on the currency pair does not change much. Most of the day eurodollar exchange rate moved around the level of 1.1220, which is 23.6% fibo abolition of recent increases (1,0821-1,1343). At present Eurodollar moves the correction of the recent increases, taking the form of consolidation. Accordingly, it is possible to enhance the recent declines towards the next support at 1.1144, which coincides with the lower limiting current channel downward. Then I would expect at this stage of activation of the demand side. In this case, we would be witnessing a classic correction, which would abolish exactly 38.2% increase wave and would only break in further increases in the direction of the recent highs at 1.1343. In the case of a further deepening of the correction consecutive props levels are 1.1082 and 1.1020. However, if the current correction will stop at the first level of support levels located in the vicinity of 1,1220-1,1245, it will be a signal for further growth. First, the demand side should move towards Monday's high of 1.1285. Then, another natural target appears to be the resistance level of 1.1343 (last week maximum). In my opinion, after the correction, we should see further increases in the levels of 1.1343 and 1.1495.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 22/03/16Going to do analyzes Eurodollar wARTo go back to do the events of last week. Wednesday's message has led the Fed to change sentiment co Consequently, the strong dollar sell-off. Currency pair after reaching the maximum at 1.1343 currently moving in the framework of the adjustment. Zone aids extends between 1,1220-1,1245 and if it is maintained that the demand should lead to make gains in the area of Monday's maximum at 1.1285. The next natural target seems to be the resistance at 1.1343 (last week's maximum). In the case of defeat Support, supply will make a deeper correction weight toward the 1.1144 level. In My assessment after completion of the correction, we should be witnesses of further increases in the level of 1.1495.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 24/02/16In the last few hours we have witnessed a test of support at 1.10, but the supply side has not led to its break. Currency pair found support at 1.0990. In the next few hours, it is possible to again attack the supply side and on the results of the test 1.10 level will determine the future direction of trading Eurodollar. From a technical point of view, demand should strongly defend the fundamental support but the situation is not conducive to this. Thus breaking the 1.10 level opens the way towards the 1.0945 level. In contrast, the target ranges for the above scenario, I would look around the 1.08 level. Alternative version of the defense implies support and then removing attacking towards Tuesday's high of 1.1052. Further demand should move towards resistance levels are located at 1.1090 and 1,1066-1,1071.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 23/02/16Declines have occurred during Monday's session, they stopped in the important area of support levels extending between 1,10-1,1045. Currency pair at the moment is close to the 1.10 level. As you can see in the chart below fracture / in support may lead to declines in the vicinity of 1.0945 and 1.08. Therefore, I expect in the near future activation of demand-side and exit-attacking towards resistance at 1.1090 and 1,1066-1,1071. Support for demand may be Tuesday's data, which may become an impulse for a stronger movement. In any case, keep in mind that if Tuesday's readings will support the dollar, the supply will receive strong impetus for further declines towards 1.08. As a result, the growth scenario will be negated.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (22.02-26.02)The outlook for EUR / USD: Declines have occurred in the last week, we can be treated as a correction to the earlier increases. Currency pair found support at the levels of 1.1066 and 1.1071, which from a technical point of view we can consider the formation of a double bottom. Considering the reaction of the demand side during Thursday's and Friday's session, I will risk saying that the Eurodollar will try to work towards recent highs. If my suspicions are correct, this demand should eventually break the key resistance at 1.1160 and head towards 1.1246 level. If this resistance and will be defeated, the demand side will face a chance to return to the last peak (1.1376). Alternative version of a return to the recent lows and then after their defeat, Eurodollar will head towards support at 1,10-1,1045
by RobertPapon
2
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 18/02/16During Thursday's session exceeded the supply side support at 1.1090, however, missed the chance of turning toward the minimum at 1.1071 proved short-lived. Currently we are in the vicinity of the level of 1.11, and it seems that the growth scenario that I presented in the last comment is not completely negated. Certainly the situation on the demand side would look preferably, if there were to overcome the resistance level at 1.1160. Nevertheless, the demand side is not at a disadvantage. However, if you happen to break the support at 1.1090 is the supply should be directed toward Thursday's minimum and then towards lower price levels, extending in between 1,10-1,1045. The signal for a stronger movement may be Friday's US data on CPI.
by RobertPapon