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Zw1

Short WheatDue to a weaker Ruble, Wheat from Russia becomes more competetive which should be solved by a partial decline of US Wheat prices (and by a partial increase in Russia Wheat prices - higher demand for Russian Wheat). Furthermore, USDA does not expect a declining "Ending Stocks" for Wheat this season although US Weather around Kansas is still very unfavorable for Winter Wheat conditions. World Ending Stocks expected: Estimates (April) = 254 Million MT, March = 252 Million - but this is mostly due to a higher estimated "World Beginning Stock" (instead of 252 Million, the world started with 254 Million in this season). Therefore, I expect US (Chicago) Wheat prices to fall to around 462 (next support area). A stop loss should be placed a little bit above 478 (now a resistance area).
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn2101709
Short on Wheat (Chicago) The contract was in an upwards trend until it hit a trend line (1st / 2nd of March) I drew in the weekly chart (possible triangle formation). The resistance in form of the trend line hold and the price started to fall. It broke the first support line at 478 (last high) and the second support area at 462 / 459 (last low) with increasing volume. In my view that is a clear sign that the price might fall further until it hits the trend line at roughly 425 / 430 (part of the possible triangle formation I drew in the weekly chart). The support area at 462 / 459 now becomes a resistance area. My idea is supportet by weather conditions around the world (22nd of March): USA / Canada: Although key wheat producing areas around Kansas have been too dry, relief is expected from the 25th of March onwards. The forecasted precipitation will especially relief dry conditions in Oklahoma and Texas. Furthermore, temperatures are going to be higher than usual in the next two days. All in all: More favorable conditions for wheat. Europe: Temperatures have been significantly lower than usual, although no frost damage is expected. Germany and the Northern parts of Eastern Europe have been to dry. Precipitation is expected for the period: 25th of March - 29th of March. Temperature is going to increase, too. All in all: More favorable conditions for wheat. Black - Sea - Region: Temperatures have been significanly lower than usual, too. A thick snow cover protected winter crop. No significant damage is expected. But, temperatures are expected to stay lower than usual. Cold weather and the thick snow cover prolong dormancy and this might after all have a negative effect on the crop yield. All in all: Conditions are not perfect. Neverthless, a high crop yield is expected. China: Temperatures are forecasted to be significantly higher than usual in important wheat growing areas (esp. in the East of China). All in all: Favorable conditions for wheat. No extrem weather or significant dryness is expected within the next week. Extrem drought in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas is reliefed thanks to precipitation in the coming week. US - Dollar is for dollar dominated commodities an important factor. A week Dollar boosts prices. I expect the US Dollar to fall to 89.02 / 88.50. Here is an important resistance. This might not be favorable for Chicago Wheat price but one has to consider that US Wheat is still highly priced compared to its competiton in the Black Sea Region. So all in all, I think that the price should fall further.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn2101709
Wheat: Long Term Wave Count (Attempt) & Potential Bullish BatI am still getting my feet wet with waves so take this count with a grain of salt..however I thought it was educational for myself and potentially others. Even though it seems very "convenient" that we are coming close to the end of Wave C, it does align with the view of the bullish Bat pattern. If you see something I can fix please share it with me so I can learn and improve! :) That said, I will be buying wheat at the bat entry shown if the price ever makes its way there. Cheers!
WLong
by SharkbaitAl
Wheat Has Completed A Bearish Butterfly and AB=CD PatternI had an order set to short 1 pip above the current high of the day and didn't get picked up. I have since moved the order to the high as shown in the chart. Risk:Reward is pretty nice and looking left (further left than on this chart) there is some structure which supports this as a supply zone. Wheat has been looking pretty bullish so it would probably be advisable to wait for a bearish signal on a lower time frame. Let me know what you think about Wheat!
CBOT:ZWH2017Short
by SharkbaitAl
3
Long WHEAT - return to the most accepted priceIn short-term I think wheat is ready to return to balance price. Positive factors: + soaring global ethanol demand; + prospects of lower crop inputs in the face of falling profitability; + strong recovery in global feed demand (USDA hiked by nearly 11m tonnes to 144.4m tonnes its forecast for world feed use of wheat in 2016-17. That's the second highest figure in record); + increased investor interest on return to multi-year lows; + price dynamics (I believe wheat is still in balance and expect it to return to the most accepted price of 475); Negative factors: - inventory forecast at a record high (253.7 tonnes); - strong dollar; - strong El Niño episode may point to a 2016 winter wheat yield above trend, possibly well-above, and a two-thirds chance of the average spring wheat yield to be modestly above trend;
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by kirill_EN