May Wheat futures: Daily trend reversalThis setup can lead to a larger failure of a weekly decline signal, which could cause a major move in $ZW_F. I'm long May futures here, paying close attention to how it develops, if the signal isn't stopped the trade could be held for longer until the chart evolves into a higher timeframe trend potentially, that would be the ideal scenario here.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Zw_f
Technical Update Wheat (6.8.22)Wheat
Technicals: July wheat futures have been the laggard of the big-3, treading near the lower end of the last month’s range. Our pivot pocket from 1095-1102 remains intact. This pocket is not only psychologically significant, but also technically significant with the 50-day moving average coming in at 1099 ¾, along with other previously important price points. If wheat can tag along with corn and beans and breakout above that first hurdle, it could take prices back near first resistance, 1142 ¾-1150.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1142 ¾-1150***, 1200-1205 ¼**
Pivot: 1095-1102
Support: 1027 ¼-1034 ¼****
Separating the Wheat from the...Corn?We like being long $ZW_F vs. short $ZC_F as both a short-term trade and and longer-term play. Corn has experienced a resurgence thanks to the huge rally in $CL_F prices while wheat have found rock-solid support at $490 per bushel and reclaimed an uptrend line going back to last March. Ratio should be 3:2 in favor of corn contracts.
WHEAT | Weekly Chart A rather logical looking interpretation. There's a reasonable degree of support, whilst we're buying in the lowest percentiles of the last decade. Further, the probability of the downtrend being breached looks increasingly likely. Further, the return distribution of commodities is particularly convex or asymmetric with a long right tail. Thus, we can give the position similar treatment to that which we might a long option trade.