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UNITED STATES 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD US10YMarket Context The yield reflects investor expectations for Federal Reserve policy, inflation trends, and US fiscal conditions. Markets are pricing in potential Fed rate cuts later in 2025, but persistent inflation and fiscal concerns are keeping yields and pending a clear directional bias . The US 10-year yield is a key benchmark for borrowing costs and is closely watched as a “risk-free” rate for global financial markets. Summary US10Y is currently at 4.35%-4.332%, The yield awaiting further economic data and central bank signals.
TVC:US10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
US10Y: New Multi Decade Highs are coming for Treasury Yields!📈 US10Y: Treasury Yields Are About to Explode Higher Longing bonds was the consensus trade heading into 2025. Everyone expected a “flight to safety” as equities tanked, but guess what? Bonds have been a massive disappointment. Instead, Bitcoin and Gold have stolen that narrative—who saw that coming? But here’s the real kicker… The 10-Year Treasury Yield is now forming a textbook Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #2, and we’re entering Phase B with a potential Upthrust (UT) forming. That means yields could be gearing up for a massive breakout, putting serious pressure on leveraged bond bulls. My projection? We’re heading to the 2.272–2.414 Trend-Based Fib Extension, targeting 5.53% to 6.42%. That’s a multi-decade high in yields. If you’re holding bonds with leverage... 🔥 You might want to sleep with one eye open. And no—this isn’t about the Fed, or politics, or CPI print tea leaves. Fundamentals don’t lead—technicals do.
TVC:US10YLong
by StockScaper
US 10Y TREASURY: September rate cut?Jobs data posted during the previous week shaped investors sentiment. The JOLTs job openings in May reached the level of 7.769M, higher from market forecast of 7,3M. The main impact on the market came from the NFP data for June, with 147K new jobs, above market expectations of 110K. At the same time, unemployment fell to 4,1% in June. Strong jobs data significantly decreased market expectations that the Fed might potentially cut interest rates at July's FOMC meeting. Current odds still hold for September's cut. A “higher for longer” is again wording used by market participants. The 10Y Treasury yields adjusted to that expectation by increasing yields from 4,2% toward 4,33% as of the end of the week. In a week ahead, there are no currently significant US macro data scheduled for a release. In this sense, it could be expected a short relaxation of the 10Y yields, where levels between 4,3% and 4,8% could be shortly tested.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
UST 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 7-11 (UPDATED DAILY)US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 7-July 11 (updated daily) Overnight The US 10-year Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.34%. A stronger-than-expected jobs report triggered the rise. Nonfarm payrolls reached 147,000 in June. April and May payroll figures were revised higher. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Wage growth slowed to 0.2%. Investors eliminated expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate cut. The probability of a September rate cut fell to approximately 80%. Fed Chair Powell advocated a cautious approach. A significant bill advanced through Congress. Source: TradingView News (Trading Economics) Economic Release week July 7-11 www.myfxbook.com Technical Outlook Monthly Chart, I am expecting a support (in px) at 4.37%, the 50% fib level of previous month. If it continuous to punch through then I would expect a target of previous month high of 4.518% is in play. Weekly Chart, following a sweep of previous week low with strong rejection, I am expecting market to target previous week high (PWH) of 4.407%. It is also worth to note that the week is closing above 50% range of last week with no signs of rejection. Daily chart, , yesterday I mentioned “ wich leads me to expect a continuation to target yesterday’s high of 4.308%” the lvl was reached and market closed through the previous day’s high which leads me to expect the next daily target will be **Disclaimer:** The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
TVC:US10Y
by Junmadayag
US30Y Bullish ideaThis is a potential idea of the 30 year bond yield potentially having movement to the upside. We have already reached into a daily volume imbalance and weekly volume imbalance. We also have a monthly order block that is acting as support combined with our volume imbalance levels. We also have relative strength with the US30Y against the US10Y and US5Y. Could be a potential idea to look for bullish ideas with the the fact that we are in a potential point were we could have a Quarterly shift. *Targeting A move to the upside were we have buyside liquidity and the 4H fair value gap.
TVC:US30YLong
by That_Guy_Trades
9
Part of the “The Bessent Effect” Explained: Challenge the FedThe 10-year Treasury yield is the heartbeat of commercial lending — it’s what sets the tone for everything from real estate financing to economic sentiment. And interestingly, it’s now hovering right around the same level it was on Election Day 2024 (Blue Line), which feels like a lifetime ago in policy terms. So what’s happened since then? Quite a bit. Yields peaked the week before Inauguration Day (Red Line), then began a steady decline — until we were hit with what can only be described as "Liberation Day Tariff Whiplash." The tariffs, announced in early April (Yellow Line), spooked the markets — particularly the ever-watchful Real Money Investors (think central banks, pension funds, and the ruthless whales). Their reaction? A spike in the 10-year, as they scrambled to reassess risk and reposition. Plot twist: Trump’s unleashing of Scott Bessent. Since stepping into the role of Treasury Secretary, Bessent has taken the reins of U.S. economic diplomacy. By late May (Purple Line), he was already deep in talks at the G7 meeting in Banff, hashing out trade dynamics and currency cooperation with global finance leaders. And — perhaps not so coincidentally — since then, the 10-year has been on the decline again, even as the Fed remains firm in its refusal to cut rates. Here’s the big takeaway: there's a strong chance we could see rates — the ones that actually move the real estate market and reflect how the “real players” feel — drift back down to their pre-tariff levels. That is, before Tariff Derangement Syndrome set in. And probably before they shoot back up to the peaks we saw just as Trump returned to the White House. In short: the 10-year might be hinting that the worst isn't over — but we could be in for a stretch of green pastures before we hit the next storm. Follow on X: @TheAlphaView
TVC:US10Y
by TheAlphaView
US 10Y TREASURY: jobs data aheadThe Fed's favorite inflation gauge was posted during the previous week, which impacted some higher volatility in the U.S. Treasury yields. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index ended May by 0,1% higher from the previous month, bringing the index to the level of 2,3% on a yearly basis. The core PCE remained a bit elevated with 0,2% in May and 2,7% for the year. Still, both figures were in line with market expectations, which was the main reason for 10Y U.S. Treasury benchmark yields drop to the level of 4,25% at the end of the week, from 4,40% where the week started. A drop in inflation figures are increasing market expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates in September. However, a week ahead might bring again some higher volatility in the U.S. Treasury yields as the major jobs data will be posted. For the week ahead the JOLTs Job Openings, the Non-farm Payrolls and the June unemployment will be posted. Considering Fed's dual mandate, bonds market participants will be closely watching these data.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook June 30-July 4 (Updated Daily)US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook June 30-July 4 Overnight On June 27, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.26% after five sessions of decline, as markets anticipate earlier Fed rate cuts. Recent data, including subdued PCE inflation, a sharp drop in May consumer spending, a 0.5% Q1 GDP contraction, and rising jobless claims since 2021, support these expectations. Fed Chair Powell’s dovish congressional remarks and potential new Fed leadership by September or October further bolster a dovish policy outlook. Economic Release for the Week www.myfxbook.com Technical Outlook On the monthly chart, , we can see that price is trading below the 50% level of the previous month’s, May, range showing bullishness in price. Weekly chart, , we can see the previous week low (PWL) has been broken and closed through suggesting the yield could continue to fall and im looking at 4.24% as a target for the week. Daily Chart, we can see that it did not break Thursday’s low instead priced bounced and gave a green candle. This tells e that there’s a possibility of a technical correction. Im looking at the daily supply area (D -OB 4.332%) for a possible target. **Disclaimer:** The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
TVC:US10Y
by Junmadayag
US10Y & ZB1! (Bonds) Weekly AnalysisUS 10‑Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) The 10‑year yield ended last Friday (June 27, 2025) at 4.27% After peaking above 4.46% mid‑week, yields eased late‑week as markets increasingly priced in potential Fed rate cuts—a 25 bp move in July was seen at 22.7% probability, up from ~14% This dovish shift, alongside a softer May PCE print, supported a lull in yield increases Still, Inflation concerns and record debt issuance continue to underpin a term premium on long-duration debt ZB1 – 30‑Year Treasury Bond Futures The September‑expiry T‑Bond futures (ZB1) which trade inversely to yield, saw modest price appreciation, reflecting falling yields. Futures prices responded to the dovish Fed tone and easing global tensions, aligning with stock market gains. The spread between 10‑ and 30‑year yields widened to ~56 bp—the largest since late 2021—illustrating increased yield curve steepening, mirrored in futures. ------------------------------------ I will be approaching the markets differently from now on. Based on the feedback from past analysis, I will be compiling all related pairs into one video, giving you guys the ability to see how one asset affects the other. This is called inter-market relationship and it's something i've been doing for years. It gives you confidence on what pairs are 'Hot Picks' and the ones that have a high chance of not delivering the way you want.
TVC:US10YShort
by LegendSince
Price of fiscal profligacy: US10Y vs DE10Y vs CH10Y Today I will go unconventional in my analysis and look at the yields of 3 major economies with 3 different fiscal trajectories. Today we look at the 10Y Yield of US, Germany and Switzerland. 3 different countries with different Fiscal and Monetary policies off late. The TVC:US10Y after touching the highs of 5% in Oct 2023 has been in a downward trend making new lower highs and lower lows but within the downward slopping channel sweeping the upper bound and the lower bound. Recently, touching the higher bound of the channel at 4.5%, since then it has reversed its course and gone down. On 26th May my article on TVC:US10Y and TVC:DXY forecasted 4.6% as the upper bound for the $US10Y. TVC:US10Y and TVC:DXY Divergence and correlation breakdown for TVC:US10Y by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView . We recently got rejected at 4.51%. So, the obvious direction for TVC:US10Y is lower with 3.5% as the lowest target. Now switching gear to $DE10Y. The German Bunds are doing the reverse. They are making a series of new higher highs and higher lows. With increasing yields on the TVC:DE10Y and fiscal indiscipline on the part of German govt this is going to rise in the medium to long term. Then we finally look at the Swiss 10Y which might touch ‘Negative’ in the near term. The Swiss central bank is on the path to reduce the rates to negative in Sept 25 meeting. The TVC:CH10Y at 0.45% brings back the memory of negative rates. But with global flight to safety and a fiscally conservative government the TVC:CH10Y is in huge demand hence pushing down the yields. Verdict : TVC:US10Y ↘ between 4.3% - 3.5%, TVC:DE10Y ↗ between 2% - 3%, TVC:CH10Y TVC:US10Y ↘ between 0.5% - (- 0.25%)
TVC:US10Y
by RabishankarBiswal
US10Y: Signals Deeper Drop as Rate Cut Hopes BuildUS10Y: Signals Deeper Drop as Rate Cut Hopes Build The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) has broken decisively below a key daily structure zone near 4.32%, marking a significant technical breakdown. If price action holds beneath this level, it increases the probability of a further slide toward 4.14% and potentially 3.09%—levels last seen in early April 2025. From a broader perspective, the yield could eventually decline toward 3.64%, dating back to early September 2024. This bearish momentum may begin unfolding today, especially if the PCE data hints at a potential Fed rate cut. During recent testimonies, Chair Powell emphasized a data-dependent approach, yet didn’t dismiss the possibility of a rate cut in the July meeting. Interestingly, despite US10Y's decline, it may still provide temporary support for the U.S. dollar (USD) in these volatile conditions. The correlation between US10Y and the USD has weakened in recent months. Let's see what happens. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
TVC:US10YShort
by KlejdiCuni
4
US GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD.The correlation between the US 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y) and gold prices is historically inverse but has shown periods of divergence due to shifting market dynamics 1. Typical Inverse Relationship Gold and US10Y yields traditionally move in opposite directions due to: Opportunity Cost: Higher yields increase the cost of holding non-yielding gold, pressuring prices. Real Interest Rates: Gold tends to fall when real yields (nominal yield minus inflation) rise, as seen in pre-2024 data. 2. Recent Deviations and Drivers Since 2024, this correlation has weakened or reversed under specific conditions: Geopolitical Turmoil makes Positive correlation (both rise)us10y and gold ,eg Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East tensions, and U.S.-EU tariffs drove simultaneous surges in yields and gold as dual safe havens. De-Dollarization,Gold decouples from yields as mejor Central banks (e.g., China, Russia) bought gold aggressively, offsetting yield-driven pressure. 3. Yield Level: US10Y at 4.26%, Correlation Status: Weakly inverse, but fiscal risks (e.g., U.S. deficit, trade policies) could reignite positive links. Key Influencers Moving Forward Fed Policy: Expected rate cuts (2×25 bps in 2025) may weaken yields, boosting gold. Inflation Expectations: Sticky inflation could sustain gold’s appeal despite yield fluctuations. Geopolitics: Escalations in trade wars or conflicts may re-tighten the positive correlation. Summary While the US10Y-gold correlation remains fundamentally inverse, recent structural shifts—geopolitical stress, fiscal uncertainty, and de-dollarization—have driven periods of alignment. #dollar #gold
TVC:US10Y
by Shavyfxhub
US10YAs of June 23, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.40%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous session. Recent data from June 20, 2025, showed the yield at 4.38%, and it has hovered in the 4.3%–4.5% range throughout June. This level is above the long-term average of around 4.25%. The uptick in yields is driven by investor concerns over US fiscal policy, a growing budget deficit, and recent credit rating actions. Federal Reserve officials have also highlighted risks related to the labor market and inflation, with markets currently pricing in two possible 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year. Summary: US 10-year Treasury yield (June 23, 2025): 4.40% Recent range (June 2025): 4.3%–4.5% Drivers: Fiscal concerns, inflation expectations, and Fed policy outlook This yield is closely watched as a benchmark for global interest rates and risk sentiment.
TVC:US10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
US 10Y TREASURY: digesting FOMC ahead of PCEThe central event for financial markets during the previous week was the FOMC meeting. The Fed decided to hold interest rates at current levels, but two rate cuts till the end of this year are still on the table. This was in line with market expectations. Still, the Fed Chair Powell shortly commented on the potential for higher inflation in the coming period, as a reflection of implemented trade tariffs of the US Administration. The Fed is expecting to see it reflected in the inflation figures in the future period, but they will continue to be data-driven when deciding on interest rates. Due to the FOMC meeting, the 10Y Treasury benchmark was moving with a higher volatility during the week, as was expected. The nervousness regarding Fed's next move on interest rates was high for some time in the past. The 10Y yields started the week around the 4,5% while ending it at 4,37%. The PCE data are scheduled for a release in the week ahead. If there are no surprises with the data, it could be expected that 10Y yields will have a relatively calmer week, with further relaxation in yields, moving above the 4,3% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK JUN 23-27 (UPDATED DAILY)US 10Y TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK JUN 23-27 (UPDATED DAILY) Geopolitical event Early Monday in Asia, US equity futures fell and oil prices surged following US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend, prompting a risk-off sentiment that saw Asian equities decline and the dollar strengthen against major currencies. The US Treasury market faced pressure as investors anticipated heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with some expecting a flight to safety that could increase demand for Treasuries and push yields lower. However, concerns over potential oil supply disruptions and rising inflation risks could elevate real yields, potentially pressuring Treasury prices. Analysts suggest that while Treasuries may see initial safe-haven buying, sustained oil price spikes could complicate the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook, impacting Treasury yields. The uncertainty surrounding Iran’s response and the risk of further escalation, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, may continue to weigh on the Treasury market as investors reassess global economic implications. Economic Releases for the week www.myfxbook.com Technical outlook For the monthly we maintain to be constrained within the previous month’s range as long as we don’t see any break from the range I will call the monthly range sideways. Weekly I would like to see a break below 4.316% to be bullish otherwise sideways. A break below 4.316% I will be looking at previous month low as a target. For the daily I would lie to wait how the market digests the ongoing Iran strike by the US for direction. But a break below 4.344% could be a bullish sign for me.
TVC:US10Y
by Junmadayag