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Bitcoin (BTC) vs. US 10-Year Treasury Yield AnalysisKey Dynamics: Rising inflation has pushed the US 10-Year Treasury Yield (10YR Yield) higher, creating macro headwinds for Bitcoin as rising yields often reflect tighter financial conditions and increased risk aversion. Despite this, Bitcoin has shown resilience, maintaining an upward trend in its price action. Current Setup: 10YR Yield Resistance Zone: The 4.70%-5.00% range is a critical resistance zone that has capped yields in the past. A rejection at this level would signal easing inflation concerns and a potential stabilization in financial conditions, supporting BTC's bullish trajectory. Breakout Scenario: If the 10YR Yield breaks above 5%, it could signal further inflationary pressures or expectations of higher interest rates for longer. This would increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, potentially weighing on BTC's price. Implications for Bitcoin: Bullish Outlook: A rejection at the 10YR Yield resistance, combined with improved inflation control, could act as a tailwind for BTC, enabling it to continue its upward momentum. BTC’s trajectory could also benefit from a rotation of funds into risk assets as financial conditions stabilize. Bearish Risks: A breakout above 5% would likely put downward pressure on BTC, potentially leading to a period of consolidation or retracement in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Key Levels to Monitor: 10YR Yield: Resistance at 4.70%-5.00% and the significance of a potential breakout or rejection. BTC Support and Resistance: Short-term support: $91,000-$93,000. Resistance: $102,500-$105,000. Conclusion: Monitoring the interaction between the 10YR Yield and Bitcoin's price action is critical. While BTC's upward trend remains intact, a rejection in yields near 5% could strengthen bullish momentum, while a breakout above this level may present challenges. Upcoming economic data will play a significant role in shaping both the yield curve and BTC's trajectory in the near term.
TVC:US10Y
by Richtv_official
US 10yr Yields Eyeing 5%?Chart Analysis: The 10-Year US Treasury Yield continues to climb within a well-defined ascending channel, highlighting robust bullish momentum in recent months. 1️⃣ Ascending Channel: Yields are trading near the upper boundary of the ascending channel (green-shaded area), reflecting sustained upward pressure. Traders should monitor reactions at this boundary for potential breakout attempts or a pullback toward the channel’s midline. 2️⃣ Key Resistance Levels: 4.80%: Immediate resistance level, capping recent gains. 5.02%: A critical horizontal resistance zone, representing a multi-year high and potential target on continued strength. 3️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): Trending upward at 4.33%, providing dynamic support. 200-day SMA (red): Rising at 4.24%, reinforcing the broader bullish trend. 4️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 75.68, signaling overbought conditions, which may precede a consolidation or corrective pullback. MACD: Bullish momentum remains strong, with the MACD line above the signal line and in positive territory. What to Watch: Sustained breaks above 4.80% could pave the way for a test of 5.02%, with potential for further upside if this resistance fails. Any pullback may find support near the 50-day SMA or the ascending channel’s lower boundary. RSI overbought conditions suggest vigilance for potential divergences or reversal signals. The 10-Year Yield’s bullish structure remains intact, supported by rising moving averages and upward momentum. However, caution is warranted as yields approach critical resistance levels. -MW
TVC:US10Y
by FOREXcom
SG10Y - a peek into the next few weeks.As pointed previously for the last few years... the SG10Y Singapore Govt 10 year Bond Yields chart have an uncanny correlation to give us a heads up on when the US Equity markets like the S&P500 SPY SPX are going to keel over and drop. On such instance is here and now. A higher high and a clear breakout after a Fibonacci retracement, within a bigger retracement. This is a clear and present indication that (US) equity markets are going to keel over and drop. Bears are just around the corner. Pain till Mid-Feb Heads up.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
US 10Y TREASURY: surprise, surpriseThe US jobs data posted during the previous week was the highest surprise for markets in the recent period. The US economy added 256K new jobs in December, which was much higher from market expectations. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped to the level of 4.1%. Certainly, such developments are positive for the US, however, investors were not happy. A strong jobs market and a too strong US economy will make the Fed halt further cuts of interest rates. Some analysts already came up with their predictions that the first rate cut in 2025 might occur in September. For other analysts it is questionable whether the Fed will cut even once in 2025. Whatever these initial expectations, still the FOMC meeting is scheduled for January 28th, where more information will be available and further priced. The US 10Y benchmark yields reacted strongly to jobs data on Friday. Yields reached higher grounds, at 4,76%. At one moment, yields reached the level of 4,8%. Yields returned to the levels from April last year. Until the January FOMC meeting, it could be expected that the market will continue to test levels around the 4,8%. However, the picture will be much clearer after the inputs from Feds officials. Hopefully, there will be no more surprises.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
[EUCHF] Reallocating your FIAT-Cash to your friendly neighbour OANDA:EURCHF Hello all, TL;DW: Without seeing a precise trade entry/exit this 'trade' is more about positioning you FIAT into another country. 🧀 The reward is (more) cheese Knowing that inflation will (hopefully not!) come back in full in 2025, it can be a wise move to prepare for it in advance and position yourself accordingly. 🧀 Super Swiss Cheese Target of below 0.9 and below I assume a continuation in this drawn channel of standard-deviations, which will lead to a target over a time horizon of 9+ months somewhere at 0.90 or further below 0.85. Please also watch the video. Thanks! 🚀
TVC:DE10YShort
by OiconomiX_io
Market Update: UK 10Y Yields Back on Nov 4th, we highlighted a potential triangle pattern on UK 10Y yields. 📈 At the time, we noted that a weekly close above 4.75% would complete the pattern, offering a potential longer-term upside target of 6.6%. Last week, we got a weekly close above 4.75%! While a monthly close would strengthen the case, for now, as long as yields stay above 4.50%, I'm leaning into this scenario. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:GB10YLong
by The_STA
Bond prices under pressureThe price on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to almost 96.0 on Friday, after payrolls report came stronger than expected, reinforcing the view that Fed would need to slow down rate cuts. The price on the UK 10-year gilt fell to 89.6, the lowest since August 2008, and broke down the support at 91.0.The pressure in the UK bond market has been further amplified by mounting investor concerns over the nation’s debt levels and the government's ability to restore public finances while implementing its budget plans. This rise reflects a broader increase in bond yields fuelled by concerns over Trump’s policies and a hawkish outlook from the Fed.
OANDA:UK10YBGBP
by TCDAN
10y+ bonds are becoming even more attractive for investorsThe US economy in December added the most jobs since March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, capping a surprisingly strong year and supporting the case for a pause in Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Nonfarm payrolls increased 256,000, exceeding all but one forecast of economists. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from November. YIELDS are rising, and traders are fully pricing in the first rate cut in October. The 10-year yield may aim for the 5% level, similar to the March 2023 movement. However, let's not forget that at that time the interest rate was 5.5%, and there were no expectations for combating 9% inflation. Currently, inflation is even below 3%, and concerns that the US will impose new sanctions or that tax cuts will create a new wave of inflation are purely speculative fears, not facts, which have created an emotional backdrop in the markets. On the contrary, 10, 20, and 30-year bonds are becoming even more attractive for investors. And don't forget, pre-election promises often do not turn into reality.
TVC:US10YShort
by gorgevorgian
3
1Q2024 outlook pre-December NFP'sBack in December before the November non-farm payroll print, the US 10-year yield was sitting just below the 4.20% which coincided with the 50- and 200-day MAs. Since the stronger than expected payroll print of 227 thousand, yields have spiked aggressively to highs just above 4.7% earlier this week. (See the attached idea from December) It is difficult to gauge how the payrolls will affect the US bond market today but I still believe the US 10-year yield will reach the 2023 highs of 5% given the strong upward trend. The turmoil in the UK gilt market also does not bode well for investor risk sentiment as we may be witnessing a historic resurgence of the so called bond vigilantes. Over to the technical indicators, a short-term pullback towards the 50-day MA at 4.41% and the zone between 4.45% and 4.50% seems like the next move following today’s payroll print. The US 10-year seems a bit overstretched and the RSI indicator is hinting at a bearish divergence. This will however just be a short-term pullback and as long as we remain above the 50-day MA, a 5.00% yield on the 10-year seems inevitable.
TVC:US10YLong
by Goose96
Bond market bottom ? Equites down bonds to change and move up?Simply put, USA needs the interest rate to be lower, it bounces off the long term KLOS then we could see a change in direction for bonds something that next to no one is expecting. Trump is coming into help save the world. So his new team will make structural changes Elon could tweet to all to buy bonds and hey everyone who follows him takes action to save their own butts. Elon fixes the deficit hugely in relative proportions without putting the jobs at risk. That would on the one hand help savers and people with mortgages as if the price of the bonds goes up then interest rates go down. however the loss to Americans from their stock portfolios does not help the total money held by Americans. The box represents only 7% away price may reverse at round number 100, which is not so far away now. This area offers strong KLOS for a bounce from 2004 levels You could get short term fed notes which pay well and would benefit from any reduction in interest rates. I think these would hold their prices or go up a bit because they may get bid but the money moving out of equites. Interest rates to move lower ? (with a bit of dollar weakness ?) this will reduce the payments all governments need to make globally so as to stretch their budgets rather then raise taxes.
OANDA:USB30YUSDLong
by William_Playfair