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US 10Y TREASURY: PCE weekUS Treasury yields had a relatively calmer week. Higher volatility was exhausted after the FOMC meeting, two weeks ago. The economic data are weighted and in expectation of the new ones the 10Y US benchmark was moving within a relatively short range, between levels of 4.20% and 4.29%. However, the major concern of market participants continues to be when the Fed will cut interest rates? Recent economic data are showing some potential that the US economy is beginning to slow down. This might be one of the triggering events for the Fed to cut interest rates, despite relatively elevated inflation figures. The week ahead is bringing PCE data for May, which is Fed`s favorite inflation gauge. In case of any surprises, the volatility might be easily back on markets. As per current charts, there is some potential for 10Y yields to test a bit higher ground, above 4.30%, while continuing to test the 4.20% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Bitcoin and Global LiquidityWhenever global liquidity increases, this liquidity increase fuels Bitcoin and supports Bitcoin's rise. This pattern has been continuing in the form of a sine wave since 2009. Global liquidity falls at certain times and rises at certain times. Since 2011, global liquidity has been rising in a low-speed trend, exceeding the previous peak each time it rose. Global liquidity, which last peaked in 2022, returned to a slow increase at the beginning of 2023. I think there is currently at least a 100% gap for this rise to be completed. I think Bitcoin will also rise as this gap is filled. I think it is essential for at least a long-term cryptocurrency investor to follow global liquidity closely. While this global liquidity is not meaningful to explain the SP500 or Nasdaq indexes, it appears to be in full correlation with Bitcoin.
TVC:CN10YLong
by YavuzAkbay
Bund ProjectionsSometimes a drawing can speak better than words, or at least present an idea in a better and more efficient way. This project involves projected tendencies and forces that might affect the price, represented with the curves as attractors and influencers with their respective arrows pointing the direction of the potential simulated pressure applied to the tendencies of the market. Rectangles are projected potential support and resistance in their respective time zone. The white one is different, the exception to the rule, but it could end up having some interesting price action near it (/if the price reaches that zone). The purple cross is interesting with it's time stamp for a potential time zone of interest, while it's marked price level could be relevant if the price reaches it in this project. Orange rectangle is the wild card which could end up being irrelevant as trying to predict potential simulated scenarios of evolution of price action is not a concrete and exact science and we deal with probabilities and tendencies. The purple monster curve wishes to be the big kahuna of the project if it ends up being a success, meaning relevant price action is to be watched near it. All elements can provide signals through Japanese Candlestick analysis and hunt for inflection points / reversals, but the purple one could be the big showdown whether it is a bounce, or a break and retest, the function of the curve is applied with the intention of catching as many as possible potential simulated scenarios and unfoldings of events. Nen projects are for recreational purposes only and the authors are not liable in case of loss of capital caused by the trading decisions inspired by them. Every trader is responsible for his own trades and decisions. May the force of profits be with you!
FX:BUND
by nen
US 10Y TREASURY: maybe September?Markets have survived another FOMC meeting, and volatility induced by their narrative. From initially planned three rate cuts during the course of this year, we have learned from Fed Chair Powell, that there will probably be only one rate cut this year. The markets have switched their attention on when this first pivoting might occur, with current estimates that it might be in September. Whether this will be the case it is unclear, considering that the Fed missed their own estimates, let alone estimates from the market. The 10Y Treasury yields started the previous week around the level of 4.47% and during the week, Treasuries were traded higher in prices and lower in yields. The lowest yield reached was at 4.19%, still, the market closed Friday`s trading session at 4.22%. The level of 4.20% should be tested in the coming period. In this sense, it should not be expected to have lower yields from the current ones. Some short volatility toward the upside is possible but not the significant one. At this point on charts, the level of 4.3% might be a target of 10Y yields, but only shortly.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
*SMC* DXY correlated with US02Y Bonds As we can see on the daily tf, DXY has created Relative Equal High at 105.459 which translate to this level being a liquidity pool. We are likely to see 105.459 being taken out put where can it go? As we can see, above 105.459, the closer PDArray is the OrderBlock (made the 30 Apr) which confluate with the 75% of the Dealing Range and another buyside liquidity pool at 105.742. I dont expect DXY to trade above the mean threshold of the OrderBlock and if it touched I expect a strong reaction to the downside. Concerning the 02 year Bonds , the body has respected the OrderBlock (30 Apr) creating relative equal low which has been taken out (june 12). There is a ''crack'' in correlation right now between the DXY and the major Bonds of the US which leads me to think that there is a higher probability for the DXY to follow the Bound and drop lower. Fundamentally, Powell has been pointing out the progress that has been made (which could eventually lead to a cut of rates) However, the ''Dot Plot' ' surprised the market of a likely to only 1 cut this year instead of 2-3 rate cut priced-in, which could be the reason why DXY has been going higher the last couple of days.
TVC:US02Y
by ezod
2
Yields are still selling off after yesterday's dropLet's see how the TVC:VIX does over the next few days/weeks. Still think it eventually breaks its major support level, at least temporarily. The 2Yr and 10Yr are crashing and following yesterdays drop. TVC:TNX #interestrates, as we said, will likely be cut, even if a little. They will most likely be raised again next year. Not political... Anyway, since we have stated COUNTLESS times. They CANNOT lower rates but MUST lower them.
TVC:US02YShort
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Bearish on DXYThis week we have CPI and US Fed funds rate announcements. Most probably we don't get a rate cut for now (as the market expects). However, I think this week the announcements are coming out with a more dovish tone. Let's see what happens . . . If the CPI number come out lower or equal to the expectations and the Fed Chair Powell signals 1 or 2 rate cuts for this year. I believe we can expect the yellow scenario. Otherwise, we can expect the red scenario happens in short term.
TVC:US10YShort
by SamanFx0
US 10Y TREASURY: FOMC induced volatilityThe 10Y US Treasuries reacted to jobs figures data posted on Friday. The data were somewhat mixed. On one side, unemployment for May showed an increase to 4.0% from 3.9% posted for the previous month. On the other hand, the non-farm payrolls with 272K jobs added, significantly surpassed market expectations of 190K. The market is expecting for the jobs market to slow down as it will be the first sign for the Fed to pivot, as inflation is holding sticky above 3%. However, May data were sort of mixed. The Fed is meeting on Wednesday, and the majority of market participants are of the opinion that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting. Based on the CME Group's FedWatch Tool there is currently a 68% chance that the Fed will pivot in September this year., based on traders’ expectations. A mixed mood has been evident during the previous week. The 10Y US benchmark was moving toward the downside during the week, reaching its lowest weekly level at 4.27%. Still, Friday’s trading session brought a change in sentiment, where the market returned yields toward 4.43%, due to posted jobs data. As FOMC will decide on interest rates on Wednesday and will communicate its macro projections with the wider community of investors and traders, it implies that the increased volatility might be ahead for another week. Still, the markets should eventually calm after they price all available information.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Extensive Analysis of the US Government Bonds 10YR Yield Chart (Overview The chart for US Government Bonds 10YR Yield on the 4-hour timeframe shows significant movement with the price rebounding from a recent low. The indicators used include Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, Commodity Channel Index (CCI), MACD, and Support and Resistance levels. Key Observations 1. Moving Averages (200 MA and 50 MA): • 200 MA (Green Line): The price is currently below the 200 MA, indicating a bearish long-term trend. • 50 MA (Blue Line): The price is also below the 50 MA, reinforcing the short-term bearish sentiment. 2. Bollinger Bands: • The price is at the middle Bollinger Band, indicating that the market may be at an equilibrium point. The previous move was from the lower band, suggesting the market might be moving back towards the upper band. 3. Commodity Channel Index (CCI): • The CCI is likely around 0 or slightly positive, indicating neutral to mildly overbought conditions. This suggests a potential for a continuation of the current trend or a mild pullback. 4. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): • The MACD line is above the signal line, and the histogram is showing increasing positive values, indicating bullish momentum. 5. Support and Resistance Levels: • Resistance Zones: Strong resistance is seen around 4.550% and the strong high zone above. • Support Zones: The recent low at 4.250% is marked as a weak low, with further support below. Comprehensive Technical Analysis 1. Current Trend: • The long-term trend is bearish, as confirmed by the price being below the 200 MA. However, there is a short-term bullish sentiment as indicated by the price moving upwards and crossing the 50 MA. 2. Equilibrium Conditions: • The price is near the middle Bollinger Band, indicating a balance point. A move above this band could suggest a continuation towards the upper band, while a rejection could mean a return to the lower band. 3. Volume: • Increased volume during the recent upward move indicates strong buying interest, which may continue to push the price upwards. 4. Key Support and Resistance Levels: • Resistance: Significant resistance levels start from 4.550% to 4.700%. • Support: The recent low at 4.250% and significant support around this level. 5. Momentum Analysis: • The MACD indicates bullish momentum, suggesting the possibility of further upward movement in the short term. Best Trade Opportunity Given the current market conditions, the best trade opportunity appears to be a short-term buy trade to take advantage of the recent bullish momentum and potential for continuation towards higher resistance levels. Trade Setup: • Buy Level: Around 4.435% (current level near the middle Bollinger Band) • Stop Loss: Below 4.300% (to account for potential pullbacks) • Take Profit: • First target: 4.550% (near the first resistance level) • Second target: 4.650% (middle resistance level) • Extended target: 4.700% (upper resistance level) Trade Rationale: • Bullish Indicators: The MACD and the recent upward movement suggest bullish momentum. • Volume Consideration: Increased volume during the recent move up indicates strong buying interest, supporting further upward movement. • Risk-Reward Ratio: Entering a buy position near 4.435% offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, especially with a stop loss below the recent low. Summary • Buy Opportunity: Enter at 4.435% with a stop loss below 4.300%. • Targets: 4.550% (first target), 4.650% (second target), and 4.700% (extended target). • Rationale: The market is currently showing bullish momentum, and the potential for continuation towards higher resistance levels is high given the MACD and volume indicators.
TVC:US10Y
by KironKavanagh
1
1O year US T Bond Yield:A hot jobs report Friday sent shivers through the bond market, prompted yet another repricing of rate-cut expectations and may have ruined Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s weekend. Treasurys sold off, sending yields (which move opposite to price) jumping Friday. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, the most sensitive to policy expectations, jumped 15 basis points to end at 4.87%, while the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose 14.8 basis points to 4.428%. For the purist TEchnical Analyst, teh writing was on the wall. And till 4.66% rise, they woudl still be relaxing in their Lazy Boy Chair.
TVC:US10YLong
by SWFguy