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Government bonds

US10Y Look for a 1D MA50 rejection.A month ago (August 21, see chart below) we argued why the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) would go lower with the Fed having no choice but the cut the Interest Rates: Well the Fed did it and cut the rates not just by -0.25% but -0.50%, initiating the new cut Cycle. Now let's look at the US10Y's price action on a smaller time-frame, namely the 1D. As you can see the pattern is a double Channel Down, with the price trading below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since July 03 2024. That is the current Resistance and until it breaks (1D candle closing above it), we should be looking every time for a sell near it. Assuming the Bearish Legs of the diverging (dotted) Channel Down are symmetrical like those of May and June, our Target is 3.450%, representing a -10.50% decline (same as August's Bearish Leg). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
Five Market Correlations You Can UseAs a trader, I've discovered key market correlations that provide valuable insights. Here are 6 you can use: 1️⃣ US Dollar Index & Commodities (DXY & Commodities ): The US Dollar Index often moves inversely to commodities like gold and oil. Monitoring this correlation helps gauge potential moves in commodity prices based on the USD's strength or weakness. 2️⃣ S&P 500 & Volatility (SPX & VIX): The S&P 500 and the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) exhibit an inverse relationship. A rising VIX indicates higher market uncertainty, influencing my risk management decisions when trading the S&P 500. 3️⃣ Bond Yields & Currency Pairs (BondYields & Forex ): Strong correlations exist between government bond yields and currency pairs. Higher bond yields may lead to a stronger currency, and vice versa. This correlation helps in forex analysis and trade setups and we use it in our program's bias matrices. 4️⃣ Crude Oil & Transportation Stocks (CrudeOil & Transportation ): Crude oil prices and transportation stocks, like airlines and shipping companies, often move together. Understanding this correlation provides insights into both oil demand and economic trends. 5️⃣ Gold & Real Interest Rates (GOLD & InterestRates ): Gold is often influenced by real interest rates (nominal rates adjusted for inflation). When real rates are low or negative, gold tends to perform well as an inflation hedge. 6️⃣ USD/CAD & Oil Prices (USDCAD & Oil ): The Canadian dollar (CAD) is sensitive to oil prices due to Canada's significant oil exports. As oil prices rise, USD/CAD tends to fall, and vice versa. The Norwegian Krone (NOK) also exhibits a similar behavior at times. By recognizing these correlations, I make more informed trading decisions and anticipate potential market moves based on the pre session biases. I also keep a close eye on updated correlation matrices in case any have de-coupled recently. Utilize these insights in your trading arsenal to gain a competitive edge!
TVC:US10YEducation
by AlexSoro
4
US 10Y TREASURY: surprising 50 bps cutAlthough markets were divided on whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps or 50 bps at their September meeting, still, the Fed brought some sort of surprise by cutting interest rates more aggressively, by 50 bps. Considering Fed's dual mandate, to keep inflation at targeted levels and a stable jobs market, the analysts are now noting that, with the latest rate cuts, the Fed switched attention to the US jobs market. The US yield reacted to the Fed's decision in a mixed manner. Still, the 10Y US yields turned to the upside, despite Fed Chair Powell's comment that more rate cuts are coming till the end of this year. The 10Y US yields reached the lowest weekly level at 3,6%, and soon reverted to the upside, ending the week at the level of 3,74%. While digesting Feds comments, the market is currently seeking an equilibrium level for the US yields. Based on current sentiment, there is some probability that yields might shortly revert back toward the level of 3,8%. However, on a longer time scale, the trend for 10Y US yields is on the downside.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10y-US02y Yield Curve Reversion - Watch StocksUS 10y and 2y yield curve has reverted (i.e. is no longer inverted) and historically this has been a bearish signal for stocks in the months ahead. Whilst stocks have continued to gain for a few weeks to months, ultimately there seems to always have had a precipitous drop to follow. Keep a solid cash position and potentially look to hedge longs moving into October/November and onwards. These drops have presented FANTASTIC buying opportunities, but ultimately you can only buy if you have dry powder set aside.
TVC:US10Y
by Profit_Link
Lower Rates Expected by 9/27/24Ahead of the Fed meeting Wednesday the market was pretty much 50/50 split on whether the fed funds rate would be cut by 25 or 50 basis points. After the 50bps announcement the counter intuitive move occurred, which was rates began rising, but this should have been a surprise. This was as straight forward "buy the rumor, sell the news" gets. Today however it appears the rates attempted to rally past 3.76% but failed. 3.76% happens to be the 50% fib level from the recent highs to lows and now we'll look to see the 10-yr break below 3.70 for a sustained move lower. Marking this as a "Long Investment Idea" since lower rates imply higher bond prices, don't be fooled by the rate chart.
TVC:US10YLong
by jpoma13
Adapting Your Strategies to Stay AheadThis is how I embrace market adaptability and recognize (and navigate) changing market conditions! As a trader, I've learned the art of adapting my strategies to stay ahead and here's how: 1️⃣ Market Awareness: I continuously monitor market trends, economic data, and global events to stay informed. Recognizing shifts in volatility, sentiment, and liquidity (if not trading FX) is key to adapting. I make sure to have a baseline short and mid term outlook, so I can spot deviations which could signal changes (particularly useful when it comes to monetary policy shifts). 2️⃣ Flexible Strategies: I avoid rigid approaches and embrace flexibility in my trading strategies. Being open to different approaches within my methodology helps me capitalize on diverse market environments. I have an arsenal full of trading weapons... and I am not afraid to use any of them. 3️⃣ Indicators & Patterns: I incorporate a wide range of technical indicators and chart patterns to gauge changing market dynamics and correlate what I see to fundamentals and sentiment. This allows me to spot emerging trends and reversals. 4️⃣ Review & Adapt: I regularly review my trading performance and identify periods of success and struggle. Adapting my strategies based on these insights enhances my edge. 5️⃣ Patience & Observation: During market shifts, I exercise patience and observe new patterns before making significant adjustments. Rushing to adapt can lead to hasty decisions. I follow the market and ride its waves so I like to see certain signs/clues before making decisions about changing a longer standing bias. 6️⃣ Risk Management: In times of uncertainty, I prioritize risk management to protect my capital. Adjusting position sizes and setting appropriate damage control or stop-loss levels is crucial. 7️⃣ Learn from Peers: Engaging with the trading community and learning from experienced traders enriches my understanding of market adaptations. Collaboration is valuable. You still have to separate the value from the mainstream influencer-regurgitated cliches, but hey, it's still free advice. Embracing adaptability has been a game-changer in my trading journey. Recognizing changing markets and adjusting my strategies accordingly enhances my ability to thrive in any conditions.I always tell my students that we can all make money no matter what the environment is like as long as you can adapt to it. 🚀📊✨
FX:BUNDEducation
by AlexSoro
1
Chart Analysis of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Based on current chart patterns and Elliott Wave Theory, it appears we are in Wave 4 of a higher-degree cycle for the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields. Wave 4 is typically a corrective phase following a strong trending Wave 3, suggesting that this phase may involve consolidation or retracement. Key Levels to Watch: 38% Retracement (Lower Orange Line) : If yields bottom near this retracement level, it may indicate a potential support zone where Wave 4 could complete its correction. 61% Retracement (Upper Orange Line) : Should the yields find support at the 38% level, they might subsequently target the 61% retracement level of Wave 3, suggesting a potential upward move. Market Implications : If the bond yields continue to rise and reach these retracement levels, we could witness a significant bearish trend in the broader market. However, it's crucial to recognize that market conditions are dynamic and can affect these projections. Disclaimer : This analysis is based on the current technical chart patterns and Elliott Wave Theory. Market conditions are subject to change, and unforeseen factors can impact outcomes. Therefore, it's essential to stay informed and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Regards
TVC:US10Y
by imkhushal
1
US 10Y TREASURY: Fed on the moveThe US inflation data, posted during the previous week, clearly showed that the inflation in the US is slowing down. It is still above the Fed's target of 2%, but it opens the space for the Fed to cut interest rates. Markets are almost sure that the first rate cut will occur at September's FOMC meeting, which is scheduled for September 19th. The market positioned itself in accordance with expectations during the previous weeks, by decreasing yields on the US Treasury bonds. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark reached the lowest weekly level at 3,61%, still ending the week at 3,65%. Considering that the FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, some increased volatility could be highly expected. The 10Y Treasury yields might oscillate a bit up to the levels around 3,70%, looking for an equilibrium. Fed Chair Powell’s rhetoric after the meeting would shape the investors sentiment, in which sense, some higher movements might be possible. Still, on a long-run, the interest rates and yields would certainly trade with a clear downtrend.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
30-year US10Y trend vs. 10-year Bitcoin trend divergence vs. disparity o1-mini: **Understanding Divergence vs. Disparity** - **Divergence** refers to a situation where two related data sets, indicators, or trends move in opposite directions. In financial markets, divergence often signals a potential reversal or shift in the prevailing trend. For example, if the price of an asset is rising while a momentum indicator is falling, this negative divergence may indicate weakening upward momentum and a possible downturn. - **Disparity**, on the other hand, denotes a difference or inequality between two quantities. In finance, it can refer to discrepancies in valuations, performance metrics, or other financial indicators between assets or markets. Disparity highlights the gap between two elements without necessarily implying any future convergence or reversal. **30-Year US 10-Year Treasury Yield Trend vs. 10-Year Bitcoin Trend** - **30-Year US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) Trend**: - Over the past three decades, the US10Y has experienced a long-term downtrend. From the early 1990s to around 2020, yields declined from levels above 7% to historic lows below 1%, particularly during times of economic stress like the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. - This downward trend reflects factors such as monetary policy easing, lower inflation expectations, and increased demand for safe-haven assets. - However, starting around late 2020 and into 2023, yields began to rise again due to factors like economic recovery, rising inflation, and shifts in Federal Reserve policies. - **10-Year Bitcoin Trend**: - Since its inception in 2009 and especially over the past decade, Bitcoin has exhibited a remarkable uptrend, despite significant volatility. - From being virtually worthless in its early years, Bitcoin reached all-time highs above $60,000 in 2021. - The cryptocurrency's growth has been driven by increased adoption, institutional interest, and its perceived value as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. - Volatility remains high, with notable corrections exceeding 50%, but the long-term trajectory has been upward. **Analyzing Divergence and Disparity Between US10Y and Bitcoin Trends** - **Divergence**: - The inverse movements of US10Y yields and Bitcoin prices over their respective periods can be seen as a divergence in investor behavior and sentiment. - Traditionally, declining yields on government bonds like the US10Y suggest a risk-averse market seeking safety, which lowers yields due to higher bond prices. - Conversely, the rise of Bitcoin signifies a growing appetite for alternative investments, often perceived as riskier but offering higher potential returns. - This divergence highlights a shift in how investors allocate capital between traditional safe assets and emerging alternative assets. - **Disparity**: - There's a disparity in the performance and volatility profiles of the US10Y and Bitcoin. - The US10Y is a benchmark for low-risk, fixed-income investments with relatively stable returns, influenced by macroeconomic factors and monetary policy. - Bitcoin represents a high-risk, high-reward asset class with extreme volatility and speculative investment behavior. - The disparity extends to their roles in a portfolio: bonds are typically used for capital preservation and income, while Bitcoin is considered for growth and diversification. **Implications for Investors** - **Portfolio Diversification**: - The divergence between bond yields and cryptocurrency performance suggests that including both asset classes can enhance diversification. - Bonds may provide stability and income, while Bitcoin could offer growth potential and a hedge against certain systemic risks. - **Risk Management**: - Understanding the disparity in risk profiles is crucial. The low volatility of US10Y bonds contrasts sharply with Bitcoin's high volatility. - Investors should assess their risk tolerance and investment horizon when allocating assets between these categories. - **Market Signals**: - Diverging trends can signal shifts in macroeconomic conditions. Rising bond yields may indicate inflation expectations and tightening monetary policy. - Bitcoin's performance could reflect market sentiment toward digital assets and technology adoption. **Conclusion** The concepts of divergence and disparity help in analyzing and interpreting the differing trends of the US10Y yields and Bitcoin over their respective periods. While divergence highlights the opposite movements and potential shifts in investor behavior, disparity emphasizes the fundamental differences in their investment characteristics. Understanding both can aid investors in making informed decisions and constructing resilient portfolios amid evolving financial landscapes.
TVC:US10Y
by Surfwave