US 10Y TREASURY: all eyes on FedReleased data for the US economy during the previous week could point to the stagflation moment in the US during the course of this year. Posted data for core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index show that in March it increased by 2.8% on a yearly basis, from 2.6% expected by the markets. At the same time, the first estimate for the US GDP Growth Rate was 1.6% for the first quarter of this year, while the market was expecting to see the figure of 2.5%. As it is evident that the inflation will persist during the course of this year, markets have decreased their expectations on three rate cuts for this year. As per CME Group FedWatch gauge, the market is currently estimating two rate cuts with a 44% probability rate.
One more week markets spent eyeing higher yields for US Treasuries, in order to adjust their previous estimates to new available information and sentiment. Although 10Y Treasury yields started the week around 4.6% level, they were looking for the higher grounds during the week, reaching the highest weekly level at 4.73%. Still, yields relaxed a bit during Friday`s trading session, when they returned to the level of 4.66%. The market nervousness will continue during the week ahead, considering that the FOMC meeting and Fed's rate decision is scheduled for the 1st May. Any new information that Fed Chair Powell shares with markets will be immediately priced through yields. Based on current charts, there is some probability for yields to reach 4.8%, but it should be taken with precaution. On the other hand, there is also high probability that yields have peaked, and that some relaxation might be expected in the coming period. What is certain at this moment, is that markets will continue to trade in a nervous manner until they finally hear the Fed's decision and their perception on the US economy and potential future rate cuts.
