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Government bonds

US10Y held the 1D MA200 and is starting a new rallyThe U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below): Last week it tested the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support, for the first time since April 01 and held. As a result, we expect it to resume the Bullish Leg, the same way it did on July 19 2023 and test initially the previous Higher High of the 2-year Channel Up. Our Target is slightly below at 5.000%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YLong
by TradingShot
2
US 10Y TREASURY: smooth optimismInvestors are still weightening the latest inflation data posted during the previous week. Posted inflation figures were in line with the market estimate. Inflation rate reached 3.4% on a yearly basis, while core inflation eased to 3.6% in April. By putting it into a perspective of jobs data and consumer sentiment, inventors are perceiving that the first rate cut might occur in September this year, with currently 54% odds. This sentiment pushed the equity markets in the US, however, US Treasuries were traded in a mixed manner. Namely, the 10Y benchmark yields started the previous week around 4.5% level, and during the week were pushed to the lowest weekly level at 4.32%. Still, yields are ending the week at 4.42%. The level of 4.2% is currently tested. Market will start the week ahead trying to break the 4.2% line to the upside. Some volatility might be expected in the coming period, and data are still not completely clear in which direction the inflation in the US is heading. In this sense, there is some probability for the 4.5% level to be tested for one more time, but there is no indication that this level might be breached. On the opposite side, the easing of yields might go down to the level of 4.3% for one more time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Bond Market Hints Towards a Second Wave of Shorts to hit the JPYLate last year the Spread of the US/JP Carry Trade hit the PCZ of a Bearish Shark resulting in it pulling back to the 50% Retrace, this came ahead of Bearish Action in the stock market and strength in the JPY. However, the bounce at the 50% retrace indicates that it could turn into a Bullish 5-0 which would result in higher highs. In addition to that, the leverage ratio on the trade has been forming what looks to be a nice looking Cup with Handle pattern, which if it plays out would bring the leverage ratios up from 500% to well over 800%. This would likely align with higher highs in the SPX, Higher Inflation Rates, Higher Commodity, Import/Export Costs, and a continuation of the falling Japanese Yen. I will leave the chart of last year's Carry Spread Chart Post below for reference.
TVC:US10YLong
by RizeSenpai
The INFAMOUS Blow Off Top!!! US10Y US02Y $TLTThe indicators from this chart which backtested to call the 1990s Gulf War recession, the Thai Baht, the 1998 LTCM, the 2000 dotcom bubble, the great financial crisis, and the COVID pandemic all before they officially happened. It is calling for whatever this next crisis is going to be called. I placed MOAB or mother of all speculative bubbles for the crisis holding name. I am sure the talking heads on TV who never saw this coming will give their two cents about how great everything is. Clearly, we have issues in society and those issues are being pasted over on the market with money printing. This isn't doom-bear BS, it's just an indicator that has front-run every single one of these black-swan events. The best way to play this is to reduce broad market exposure and sell into the big up days. Look at defensive plays like bonds, gold, and US dollars. Now that doesn't mean you can't stay net long, for that consider option spreads, but this tells you to clearly lower your exposure. NASDAQ:TLT AMEX:GLD TVC:GOLD NASDAQ:IEF AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ
TVC:US02Y
by rwoods187
US10Y - US Ten Year Yields WeeklySome weekly consolidation; Possible yields haven't topped yet. These inflection points lead to weekly and monthly trend changes which I will be looking for a potential spike as momentum shifts back down and rates test the keltner channel mid or upper line. There is also a possibility that rates breakout of the resistance (trend change) of this bullish leg from 2020. The Red line on the keltner channel oscillator at the bottom. I expect more black swan events to occur as chaos ramps up in the next year.
TVC:US10Y
by Mikhiavelli
US 10Y TREASURY: watch for CPIMoves in Treasury yields during the previous week are showing that the market has already priced all known information, and waiting for new ones in order to decide on a further action to the up or downside. The 10Y Treasury benchmark was moving between levels of 4.51% down to 4.42% on one occasion. The majority of deals were around the 4.5% level. It should be mentioned that a 30-year bonds auction was held the previous week, where strong demand for these bonds was evident. This demand was led by latest US unemployment data and investors expectations of rate cuts during the course of this year. In this sense, a demand for other maturities, including 10Y was left out of the focus. In a week ahead a fresh US consumer price index data will be released, which might bring back some volatility on the Treasury yields. If the CPI is higher from market expectations, then yields might be pushed to the upper side, at least 4.55%, with low probability for 4.6%. However, if the CPI data show some relaxation, then the Treasury yields will continue their current path to the downside, and the level of 4.4%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Huge potential implications from YIELD SPREADS (US10y-DE10y)Folks know how I feel about very long term (multi year/decade+) outlook for inflation and yields - they are going higher. And I have called for higher yields (and spreads) and thus dollar so far this year. BUT BUT BUT The yield spread chart is suggesting a potential divergent high which could have MAJOR implications across asset markets. Is it fortelling a turn in the sequence of stronger US data? If so then in coming weeks/months we could see: Weaker data Lower yields (esp in the front end) Curve "disinversion" Weaker DXY Higher risk assets = stonks, commods (gold silver, Uranium, oil etc), Bitcoin
TVC:US10Y
by WVS_Stockscreen
US 10Y yield key support under pressureWe suspect that the US 10Y yield chart has topped short term having tested and again failed at its previous uptrend at 4.74 (which is now acting as resistance) . Please see the weekly chart. This throws the spotlight on key nearby support where we find a short term uptrend, last week's low, the 55-day ma and the 200-day ma together with a previous high all converging 4.44-4.33 (see daily chart) . While this could well hold the initial test, it is now under the spotlight, and should it give way we would allow a return visit to the 20-month ma at 4.03. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
US02Y Next Move The matter still requires deeper analysis, despite the absence of wide-ranging movement today. The recent decline in bonds did not help boost gold prices. The yield on the two-year US bond is currently at a support level of about 4.8% on the one-dimensional chart and may look to rise. If the Federal Reserve maintains a tight policy, gold may struggle to rise. However, if we begin to receive signals indicating that the Federal Reserve may wish to continue lowering interest rates this year, gold may be more optimistic. We should monitor the level of two-year and ten-year bonds, the direction of the dollar index, and geopolitical aspects to be clear about the direction of gold.
TVC:US02Y
by HezhaRavandi