looks like a distributionThis is logaritmic chart from US2Y, commercials offloading their positions or the other part is closing their positions???
Government bonds
Canada macroeconomicsTreasury bond yields and house price.
Also include unemployment rate and inflation rate YOY
US10YAs of June 23, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.40%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous session. Recent data from June 20, 2025, showed the yield at 4.38%, and it has hovered in the 4.3%–4.5% range throughout June. This level is above the long-term average of around 4.25%.
The uptick in yields is driven by investor concerns over US fiscal policy, a growing budget deficit, and recent credit rating actions. Federal Reserve officials have also highlighted risks related to the labor market and inflation, with markets currently pricing in two possible 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year.
Summary:
US 10-year Treasury yield (June 23, 2025): 4.40%
Recent range (June 2025): 4.3%–4.5%
Drivers: Fiscal concerns, inflation expectations, and Fed policy outlook
This yield is closely watched as a benchmark for global interest rates and risk sentiment.
US 10Y TREASURY: digesting FOMC ahead of PCEThe central event for financial markets during the previous week was the FOMC meeting. The Fed decided to hold interest rates at current levels, but two rate cuts till the end of this year are still on the table. This was in line with market expectations. Still, the Fed Chair Powell shortly commented on the potential for higher inflation in the coming period, as a reflection of implemented trade tariffs of the US Administration. The Fed is expecting to see it reflected in the inflation figures in the future period, but they will continue to be data-driven when deciding on interest rates.
Due to the FOMC meeting, the 10Y Treasury benchmark was moving with a higher volatility during the week, as was expected. The nervousness regarding Fed's next move on interest rates was high for some time in the past. The 10Y yields started the week around the 4,5% while ending it at 4,37%. The PCE data are scheduled for a release in the week ahead. If there are no surprises with the data, it could be expected that 10Y yields will have a relatively calmer week, with further relaxation in yields, moving above the 4,3% level.
US 10Y TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK JUN 23-27 (UPDATED DAILY)US 10Y TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK JUN 23-27 (UPDATED DAILY)
Geopolitical event
Early Monday in Asia, US equity futures fell and oil prices surged following US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend, prompting a risk-off sentiment that saw Asian equities decline and the dollar strengthen against major currencies. The US Treasury market faced pressure as investors anticipated heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with some expecting a flight to safety that could increase demand for Treasuries and push yields lower. However, concerns over potential oil supply disruptions and rising inflation risks could elevate real yields, potentially pressuring Treasury prices. Analysts suggest that while Treasuries may see initial safe-haven buying, sustained oil price spikes could complicate the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook, impacting Treasury yields. The uncertainty surrounding Iran’s response and the risk of further escalation, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, may continue to weigh on the Treasury market as investors reassess global economic implications.
Economic Releases for the week www.myfxbook.com
Technical outlook
For the monthly we maintain to be constrained within the previous month’s range as long as we don’t see any break from the range I will call the monthly range sideways. Weekly I would like to see a break below 4.316% to be bullish otherwise sideways. A break below 4.316% I will be looking at previous month low as a target. For the daily I would lie to wait how the market digests the ongoing Iran strike by the US for direction. But a break below 4.344% could be a bullish sign for me.
GB10Y BRITISH GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD.1. GBP 10-Year Bond Yield
The UK 10-year gilt yield is currently around 4.54%, near its highest level since April 2025.
This yield increase reflects sticky inflation pressures and market expectations about the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy stance.
2. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
The BoE held its official Bank Rate steady at 4.25% in June 2025, with a 6-3 vote in favor of maintaining rates.
Inflation remains above target at 3.4% (May 2025), but there is evidence of easing price pressures in services and wages.
The BoE signaled that rate cuts could resume later in 2025, possibly starting in August, depending on inflation and labor market developments.
The central bank continues a cautious, gradual approach to withdrawing monetary policy restraint while monitoring inflation risks.
3. Impact on GBP Strength
Higher UK bond yields relative to other major economies support the British Pound by attracting foreign capital seeking better returns.
The decision to keep rates steady amid sticky inflation has helped maintain GBP strength near multi-year highs against the US dollar (around 1.34–1.35).
Market expectations of future rate cuts may cap further GBP gains but the current yield environment supports a relatively strong pound.
Geopolitical risks (e.g., Middle East tensions) and global economic uncertainties remain factors that could influence GBP volatility.
Conclusion
The GBP 10-year gilt yield near 4.5% combined with the BoE’s decision to hold rates at 4.25% supports the British Pound’s relative strength in mid-2025. While inflation remains above target, signs of easing price pressures and a cautious BoE stance suggest rate cuts could begin later this year, which may moderate further GBP appreciation. Overall, the bond yield and interest rate decision interplay is a key driver of GBP performance amid ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
This is how I see the odds split for a recession.This is how I see the odds split for a recession.
Above the black line, recession less likely.
Below the red line, recession more likely.
The Fed fund rate tracks this over time.
10 YEAR JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD JGB10Y1. Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield and Price
The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield is around 1.40% to 1.52% in mid-2025, recently easing slightly to about 1.40% on June 20, 2025.
This yield level is significantly higher than the near-zero levels seen in previous years but remains low by global standards.
The bond price for the 10-year JGB hovers near 99.6 to 100, reflecting the inverse relationship with yields (as yields rise, bond prices fall slightly).
Japan’s bond yields have been rising steadily since 2022, reflecting market concerns about inflation, fiscal sustainability, and monetary policy shifts.
2. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Policy
The official BoJ short-term policy rate is currently at 0.50%, up from negative territory (-0.10%) a year ago.
The BoJ has maintained a very accommodative monetary policy stance but has started to allow some upward flexibility in long-term yields, including the 10-year JGB yield, moving away from strict yield curve control.
The BoJ is also considering buying back some super-long government bonds to stabilize the market amid rising yields.
3. Relationship Between Bond Yields, Prices, and JPY Strength
Bond yields and prices have an inverse relationship: as yields rise (reflecting higher interest rates or inflation expectations), bond prices fall.
JPY Strength is influenced by several factors related to bond yields and interest rates:
Rising Japanese bond yields tend to support a stronger yen, as higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns.
However, Japan’s yields remain much lower than those of other major economies (e.g., US 10-year yield ~4.4%), which limits yen appreciation.
The BoJ’s accommodative policy and yield curve control have historically kept yields low, suppressing JPY strength relative to currencies like USD.
Recent yield increases and policy shifts have led to some yen appreciation, but trade and geopolitical factors also play significant roles.
The trade deficit narrowing and ongoing trade talks with the US may also impact the yen’s value.
Conclusion
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has risen modestly to around 1.4%, reflecting gradual monetary policy normalization by the BoJ, which still maintains a very low short-term interest rate of 0.5%. This yield increase supports some yen strength by attracting capital inflows, although the yen remains sensitive to global yield differentials and trade dynamics. Bond prices have adjusted accordingly, declining slightly as yields rose. The BoJ’s interventions, including potential bond buybacks, aim to manage market volatility amid these shifts.
JGB 10-Year vs. AU 10-Year Bond Yield Differential and Related Concepts
1. Current Yield Differential (June 2025)
The Australia 10-Year Government Bond yield is approximately 4.33% to 4.32% (recently around 4.31%).
The Japan 10-Year Government Bond (JGB) yield is about 1.40% to 1.52%, with recent figures near 1.40%.
This results in a yield spread (Australia minus Japan) of roughly 278 to 365 basis points (2.78% to 3.65%), meaning Australian 10Y bonds yield significantly more than Japanese 10Y bonds.
2. Carry Trade and Yield Differential
The carry trade involves borrowing in a low-yield currency (e.g., Japanese yen) and investing in a high-yield currency (e.g., Australian dollar) to profit from the interest rate differential.
Given the large yield spread (~3%), investors can earn positive carry by borrowing JPY at low rates (~0.5%) and investing in AUD bonds yielding above 4%.
However, carry trade profits depend on currency movements: if the AUD depreciates against the JPY, gains can be eroded or losses incurred.
3. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP)
UIP theory states that the expected change in exchange rates offsets interest rate differentials, implying no arbitrage profits from carry trades.
For example, if Australian yields are 3% higher than Japanese yields, the AUD is expected to depreciate approximately 3% versus the JPY over the investment horizon.
Empirically, UIP often fails in the short term, allowing carry trade profits, but tends to hold over the long term.
4. Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP)
CIP states that the forward exchange rate between two currencies should reflect the interest rate differential, eliminating arbitrage opportunities via forward contracts.
In practice, CIP generally holds in developed markets, meaning investors can hedge currency risk using forward contracts, locking in the carry trade return minus hedging costs.
Deviations from CIP can occur but are usually small and short-lived in major currency pairs like AUD/JPY.
Summary Table
Aspect Details
Australia 10Y Yield ~4.31%
Japan 10Y Yield ~1.40%
Yield Spread (AU - JGB) ~2.78% to 3.65% (278–365 basis points)
Carry Trade Borrow JPY at low rates, invest in AUD for yield pickup
UIP Exchange rate expected to depreciate AUD by yield diff.
CIP Forward rates reflect interest differential, hedging possible
Implications for Investors and Markets
The large yield differential incentivizes carry trades from JPY to AUD, contributing to capital flows and exchange rate dynamics.
Short-term carry trade profits arise due to UIP deviations but are subject to currency risk.
CIP arbitrage ensures that hedged carry trades have limited risk-free profits, but unhedged positions carry exchange rate exposure.
Central bank policies, geopolitical events, and market sentiment can cause fluctuations in yields and exchange rates, impacting carry trade viability.
#BOJ
US10Ythe US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) stands at 4.39%-4.5%,The 10-year yield is a key benchmark for long-term interest rates in the United States and is closely watched by investors as an indicator of market sentiment regarding economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.
The yield has been rising recently, reflecting investor concerns about US fiscal policy, inflation, and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (June 2025)
The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% at its June 2025 meeting.
This marks the fourth consecutive meeting with no change in rates, as the Fed continues its cautious, data-dependent approach amid persistent inflation and moderate economic growth.
The Fed’s latest “dot plot” and projections indicate that two 25-basis-point rate cuts are still possible by the end of 2025, but expectations for cuts in 2026 and beyond have been reduced.
Key Drivers and Outlook
Yield Movements: The 10-year yield has climbed amid concerns about US fiscal deficits, credit rating downgrades, and the impact of tariffs and trade policy on inflation.
Fed’s Tone: The FOMC statement and projections reflect ongoing stagflationary pressures—slower growth, persistent inflation, and a slightly rising unemployment rate.
Market Expectations: Markets are pricing in two rate cuts by year-end, most likely in September and December, but nearly half of Fed officials see little or no room for cuts in 2025 if inflation remains sticky.
Conclusion
The US 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated as markets weigh fiscal risks, inflation, and the Fed’s cautious stance.
The Fed is holding rates steady but signaling that two rate cuts remain possible in 2025, with future moves highly dependent on incoming data, especially inflation and labor market trends.
Investors should expect continued yield volatility as economic and policy uncertainties persist.
US10Y UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD.the US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) stands at 4.39%-4.5%,The 10-year yield is a key benchmark for long-term interest rates in the United States and is closely watched by investors as an indicator of market sentiment regarding economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.
The yield has been rising recently, reflecting investor concerns about US fiscal policy, inflation, and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (June 2025)
The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% at its June 2025 meeting.
This marks the fourth consecutive meeting with no change in rates, as the Fed continues its cautious, data-dependent approach amid persistent inflation and moderate economic growth.
The Fed’s latest “dot plot” and projections indicate that two 25-basis-point rate cuts are still possible by the end of 2025, but expectations for cuts in 2026 and beyond have been reduced.
Key Drivers and Outlook
Yield Movements: The 10-year yield has climbed amid concerns about US fiscal deficits, credit rating downgrades, and the impact of tariffs and trade policy on inflation.
Fed’s Tone: The FOMC statement and projections reflect ongoing stagflationary pressures—slower growth, persistent inflation, and a slightly rising unemployment rate.
Market Expectations: Markets are pricing in two rate cuts by year-end, most likely in September and December, but nearly half of Fed officials see little or no room for cuts in 2025 if inflation remains sticky.
Conclusion
The US 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated as markets weigh fiscal risks, inflation, and the Fed’s cautious stance.
The Fed is holding rates steady but signaling that two rate cuts remain possible in 2025, with future moves highly dependent on incoming data, especially inflation and labor market trends.
Investors should expect continued yield volatility as economic and policy uncertainties persist.
10 year united states government bond yieldthe US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) stands at 4.435% newyork session,The 10-year yield is a key benchmark for long-term interest rates in the United States and is closely watched by investors as an indicator of market sentiment regarding economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.
The yield has been rising recently, reflecting investor concerns about US fiscal policy, inflation, and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (June 2025)
The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% at its June 2025 meeting.
This marks the fourth consecutive meeting with no change in rates, as the Fed continues its cautious, data-dependent approach amid persistent inflation and moderate economic growth.
The Fed’s latest “dot plot” and projections indicate that two 25-basis-point rate cuts are still possible by the end of 2025, but expectations for cuts in 2026 and beyond have been reduced.
Key Drivers and Outlook
Yield Movements: The 10-year yield has climbed amid concerns about US fiscal deficits, credit rating downgrades, and the impact of tariffs and trade policy on inflation.
Fed’s Tone: The FOMC statement and projections reflect ongoing stagflationary pressures—slower growth, persistent inflation, and a slightly rising unemployment rate.
Market Expectations: Markets are pricing in two rate cuts by year-end, most likely in September and December, but nearly half of Fed officials see little or no room for cuts in 2025 if inflation remains sticky.
Conclusion
The US 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated as markets weigh fiscal risks, inflation, and the Fed’s cautious stance.
The Fed is holding rates steady but signaling that two rate cuts remain possible in 2025, with future moves highly dependent on incoming data, especially inflation and labor market trends.
Investors should expect continued yield volatility as economic and policy uncertainties persist.
10 YEAR US GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD . the US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) stands at 4.39%-4.5%,The 10-year yield is a key benchmark for long-term interest rates in the United States and is closely watched by investors as an indicator of market sentiment regarding economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.
The yield has been rising recently, reflecting investor concerns about US fiscal policy, inflation, and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (June 2025)
The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% at its June 2025 meeting.
This marks the fourth consecutive meeting with no change in rates, as the Fed continues its cautious, data-dependent approach amid persistent inflation and moderate economic growth.
The Fed’s latest “dot plot” and projections indicate that two 25-basis-point rate cuts are still possible by the end of 2025, but expectations for cuts in 2026 and beyond have been reduced.
Key Drivers and Outlook
Yield Movements: The 10-year yield has climbed amid concerns about US fiscal deficits, credit rating downgrades, and the impact of tariffs and trade policy on inflation.
Fed’s Tone: The FOMC statement and projections reflect ongoing stagflationary pressures—slower growth, persistent inflation, and a slightly rising unemployment rate.
Market Expectations: Markets are pricing in two rate cuts by year-end, most likely in September and December, but nearly half of Fed officials see little or no room for cuts in 2025 if inflation remains sticky.
Conclusion
The US 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated as markets weigh fiscal risks, inflation, and the Fed’s cautious stance.
The Fed is holding rates steady but signaling that two rate cuts remain possible in 2025, with future moves highly dependent on incoming data, especially inflation and labor market trends.
Investors should expect continued yield volatility as economic and policy uncertainties persist.
US 10Y TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK JUN 16-20 (UPDATED DAILY) US 10Y TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK JUN 16-20 (UPDATED DAILY)
Overnight
U.S. Treasuries ended the week lower as rising energy prices sparked inflation concerns, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts. Crude oil surged $5.12 (7.5%) to $73.16/bbl, up 13.3% weekly, following Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran’s retaliatory missile attack, raising fears of further escalation. Treasuries began the day higher but steadily declined, pushing the 10-year yield above its 50-day moving average (4.374%), though it dropped nine basis points for the week.
Economic Releases for the Week
www.myfxbook.com
Technical Outlook
Monthly
We continue to trade within the previous month’s range with no clear direction. Range 4.63% -4.12%
Weekly
Technically hard to read were the market would go with all the geopolitical noise. Inflation was the concern reason why the yield went higher after the Israel-Iran issue due to surge in oil. This week, we might be able to see the direction after the FOMC on Thursday. So meantime I will hold my projection.
Daily
Same as weekly outlook. Will watch FOMC first.
US BOND Market ROUGH CORRECTION Q3 ?Us bond market failed the initial demand zone & drop 8 % in 2nd quarter & recovered, might visit the extreme demand zone in coming Q 3 which is around 9 % drop
US 10Y TREASURY: eyes FOMC projections The US inflation data were posted during the previous week, showing that the inflation continues to slow down, with 0,1% in May. Also, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data are showing decreasing inflation expectations for this year at 5,1%, from previously posted 6,6%, while the five year expectation eased to the level of 4,2%. However, the unrest on markets was imposed by new Middle East tensions, which were also reflected in the Treasury yields during the previous week. The 10Y yields started the week at 4,5%, and closed it at 4,4%. The lowest weekly level was at 4,3% on Friday, but the Middle East unrest pushed the yields toward the 4,4%.
The week ahead brings the FOMC meeting and Feds macro projections, which is scheduled for Wednesday, June 18th. It is widely expected that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at this meeting, while the odds are increased for a rate cut in September. Certainly, the day of the FOMC meeting will bring some increased volatility, considering investors sensitivity to the Fed's narrative and especially projections. The next supporting level for the 10Y yields stands at 4,2%. However, considering the current unstable geopolitical scene as well as the FOMC meeting, there is also an equal probability for 10Y yields to test higher grounds, around the 4,5% level, but not higher from it.
Recession delayed like in the past (higher yield)yield inverted, usually a signal for recession, but there is a case that the recession delayed
It's during the recession of 1992, 2009, and now it should happen this year, but the chance has dropped from 70% to 30%
delayed recession moght be delayed for 4 year or until yield making higher high
after making higher high will see recession within 2 years, rest for 1 year then bottomed for 2 years
So we need to see
1. higher high 10-year yield in 2026-2027
2. recession within 2 years (2028-2029)
3. Resting for 1 year (2030)
4. bottomed yield for 2 years (2031-2032)
Rates Poised For Another Leg UpRates pattern forming a reverse head and shoulders formation. Look for the 20 year at 5.25%
US10Y Big downside potentialThe U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been since last week on a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rebound, consistently rising since the April 04 Low (Support 1). The presence of the Lower Highs trend-line just above it, puts strong selling pressure long-term.
As a result, either now or upon a Lower Highs contact, we expect the US10Y to turn bearish and Target 3.860% (Support 1).
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Eurobonds: Europe Seizes on Trump’s Fiscal MisstepBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The tax bill proposal put forward by the Trump administration — known as the “Big Beautiful Bill” — includes a controversial clause, number 899, which threatens to tax dividends and coupons from U.S. assets received by foreign investors from countries deemed “hostile” or “discriminatory” toward the United States. While designed as a geopolitical pressure tool, this measure could ultimately undermine the U.S. market itself and present a historic window of opportunity for Europe.
For years, Brussels has aimed to boost the appeal of its markets against U.S. dominance. Regulatory measures like MiFID II, the push for strategic autonomy, and the introduction of common debt instruments such as Eurobonds have steadily gained ground. Now, with the prospect of a direct penalty on foreign investment in the U.S., European assets — offering favorable real yields and a strengthening currency — are emerging as a solid alternative.
The European Central Bank has already warned that this is “a window not to be missed.” Christine Lagarde has hinted that the euro could strengthen to the point of becoming a global reserve currency, particularly if new joint debt issuances are used to fund defense spending. Amid growing geopolitical tensions and declining confidence in “American exceptionalism,” the debate over mutualizing European debt is returning with renewed momentum.
Clause 899 effectively acts as a self-imposed competitive disadvantage for the U.S. In a globalized market, such a tax reduces the real returns of American assets and redirects capital flows elsewhere. If Europe accelerates Eurobond issuance and reinforces its fiscal framework, it could turn this American fiscal crisis into an unprecedented geopolitical opportunity.
Building a Eurobond Market
Since the landmark Next Generation EU plan in 2020, the European Union has made steady progress toward creating a joint debt market. By 2025, over €450 billion in debt has been issued, with new rounds under discussion to fund defense, security, and the green transition. This has helped develop a more complete yield curve, improved market liquidity, and strengthened the euro’s role as a reserve currency.
Relative Yields and Monetary Context
Although European bonds offer lower yields than their U.S. counterparts (e.g., the 10-year German Bund yields around 2.5% versus 4.3% for the U.S. Treasury), the ECB’s monetary tightening cycle has moderated. Inflation in the eurozone has fallen below 3%, and interest rates are beginning to decline. This supports the appreciation of long-term European bonds in anticipation of future rate cuts. Additionally, the risk premiums for countries like Italy and Spain have narrowed, reinforcing confidence in European fiscal cohesion.
Rising Foreign Demand
Foreign holdings of U.S. debt have fallen — from 50% in 2014 to about one-third in 2024 — while European debt is gaining traction. According to ECB and BIS data, every €100 billion in foreign purchases reduces yields by roughly 20 basis points, suggesting that continued demand could exert downward pressure on yields in the medium term.
Strong Euro and Yield Curve Management
With the euro on the rise — projected to reach 1.19 USD by 2028 — euro-denominated assets are becoming more attractive to global investors. Moreover, the ECB retains the ability to intervene in secondary markets, preventing excessive yield curve distortions and maintaining financial stability.
10-Year Eurobond Technical Analysis
Between the final quarter of 2024 and March 2025, 10-year Eurobonds staged a steady recovery before stabilizing in a consolidation range between 2.359% and 2.675%, with a current average of 2.512%. The bond’s technical structure signals a bullish trend, supported by a positive moving average crossover, which could push yields toward the upper end of the range.
The RSI currently stands at a neutral level of 52.38, indicating room for further upward movement without entering overbought territory. Additionally, the 2.568% level has proven to be a dynamic support, having rebounded multiple times, reinforcing its significance as a launchpad for further yield increases.
Conclusion
European bonds are experiencing a structural opportunity driven by U.S. fiscal missteps, growing fiscal integration within the eurozone, and a declining interest rate environment. If Europe continues to push joint bond issuances to fund strategic initiatives such as defense, energy transition, and digitalization, Eurobonds could solidify their status as a viable and competitive alternative to U.S. Treasuries.
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US10Y (10-Year Treasury Yield) Weekly TF 2025
📊 Chart Context
Current Yield: \~4.50%
Current Structure: Consolidation below major Fibonacci resistance, with multiple breakout and breakdown paths marked by confluence zones.
📉 Key Technical Observations
Bullish Scenario – Yield Rally (Rate Hike Cycle / Inflation Surprise)
TP1 (5.0%): 0.00% Fib level, psychological resistance.
TP2 (6.10%): 38.2% Fib + -27% extension zone.
TP3 (7.70%–7.91%): Major Fib confluence (-61.8% & 48.60% projection)
Bearish Scenario – Yield Drop (Rate Cuts / Recession)
Support 1 (3.91%): 23.6% Fib retracement, key structural demand.
Support 2 (3.22%): 38.2% retracement
Support 3 (2.74%): 48.6%
Support 4 (2.12%): 61.8%
Support 5 (1.33%): 78.6%
Forecast Scenarios (Based on Arrow Colors & Pathways):
Red Boxes & Zones: Critical Resistance / Reaction Zones
These are strong confluence levels that may trigger pullbacks before continuation.
Green Arrows – Bullish Projection with Pullbacks
Scenario A: Price may rally toward the 5.0% TP1 zone but experience a temporary pullback before continuing toward the 6.10% TP2 zone.
Scenario B: After a short-term correction near 6.10%, if bullish momentum sustains, yield may spike toward the 7.70–7.91% TP3 zone.
These movements reflect a stair-step advance with corrective legs between key levels — bullish macro outlook with intermittent risk events.
Pink Arrows – Bearish Pullbacks & Correction Phases:
Scenario A: Initial rejection from current zone (~4.5%) may send yields down to the 3.91% support confluence.
Scenario B: If support at 3.91% fails, yields may further retrace to 3.22% or 2.74%, activating the lower fib retracement zones.
After stabilizing in these zones, a rebound may begin and realign with the broader bullish structure.
These pink arrows suggest that even in bullish macro cycles, the market may correct deeply before resuming its ascent.
Macro & Fundamental Context:
1.Fed Pivot Dynamics: With inflation cooling and unemployment ticking higher, markets price in possible Fed rate cuts by late 2025.
2.Bond Demand Outlook: Recession fears and de-risking scenarios trigger massive flows into long-term Treasuries, pulling yields lower.
3.Global Liquidity Conditions: Lower yields = increased liquidity = favorable conditions for crypto, gold, and risk assets.
4.Hawkish Risk: Any oil shock or CPI surprise can pause or reverse easing expectations, pushing yields up.
Effects on Gold & Crypto (as scenarios play out):
↗ If US10Y Yields RISE to 6% or 7.7% (TP2/TP3)
* Gold: Likely to suffer due to rising real yields; institutional demand weakens.
* Crypto: Bearish; risk assets sell off amid higher opportunity cost and tighter liquidity.
* Dollar (DXY): May strengthen, applying more pressure on gold & crypto.
* Strategy: Favor defensive positioning. Look for shorting rallies or hedge exposures in BTC, ETH, and high-beta alts.
↘ If US10Y Yields FALL toward 3.2% to 2.1% (Support 2–4):
* Gold: Bullish. Lower yields reduce holding costs and boost safe-haven appeal.
* Crypto: Bullish. Liquidity rotation into high-risk assets often follows easing cycles.
* DXY: Likely to weaken, further supporting BTC and altcoins.
* Strategy: Look to accumulate crypto during dips. Gold may offer breakout opportunities.
Rangebound Near 4.5% (Current Zone):
* Gold: Mixed; capped upside until clear direction emerges.
* Crypto: Ranges or whipsaws. Watch for breakout signals from BTC.D and TOTAL3.
* Strategy: Stay cautious. Monitor DXY and macro events for confirmation.
Related Reference Charts
TOTAL3 – Altcoin Market Cap Weekly
BTC.D – Bitcoin Dominance Weekly
A case for an 8% Higher for LongerThe monthly line chart is starting to look similar to the 2000-2008 timeframe; however instead of a prolonged Bear Flag; it looks like a prolonged Bull Flag in the making. Should that bull flag break to the upside; a doubling of the "pole" could put rates at or near the 8% range. (the dates rhyming could be just coincidental)
US 10 YEAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 9-13(JUNE 9 UPDATE) OvernUS 10 YEAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 9-13 (JUNE 9 UPDATE)
Overnight
U.S. Treasuries declined following a stronger-than-expected May employment report, signaling a robust labor market and sustained economic growth, reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Investors sold across the yield curve, with the belly experiencing the most pressure. Meanwhile, the stock market rallied, likely benefiting from portfolio rebalancing from bonds to equities. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.4% to 99.18, reflecting the positive data and higher rates.
High Impact News this Week
www.myfxbook.com
Technical
Sometime last week I mentioned this “I expect market to reach 4.47% yesterday’s high and making a bold call of 4.539% - 4.541% for the week. This is just a probability based on the price patterns I’m seeing. Resistance at 4.41% and 4.387% And I also mentioned last Friday the heavy news days like NFP or CPI creates moves that are unexpected and would rather stay away. As expected those levels we mentioned were closed through.
Bias
I am expecting previous week high of 4.51% to be targeted. For today if the candle closes through 4.514% I am looking at 4.541 as the next daily target. Wednesday could be the catalyst day when CPI is due to be released along with inflation rate. Another day to stay off for me.
DISCLAIMMER: This technical analysis is based on historical chart data, which may not predict future market outcomes. Any insights or interpretations I provide are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
US 10Y TREASURY: will the Fed cut?The jobs market data were in the spotlight of investors during the previous week. The major impact came from the non-farm payrolls posted on Friday, which was better than anticipated with 139K new jobs added. The jobs market in the US continues to hold strongly, which impacts investors anticipation of potential Fed's rate cut during the course of this year. Namely, as the Fed has a dual mandate of keeping inflation at targeted level and exercising full employment, the stronger jobs market might impact Fed's decision to hold reference interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time. The CME FedWatch tool is currently anticipating 100% odds that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at their June meeting. The FOMC June meeting is scheduled for 17th-18th.
The jobs data triggered a strong reaction on the US Treasury market. The 10Y US benchmark yields were pushed to the upside on Friday, from 4,32% on Thursday up to 4,50% on Friday. Usually, after such a strong spike in prices or yields on the market, there is time when the market will consolidate, in which sense, there is a probability that yields will ease to some extent during the week ahead. Still, the market nervousness might continue to the lower extent until the FOMC meeting.
