The break-up (a must-watch chart)One of the most important—and unusual—developments in the market right now is the combination of rising US bond yields and a falling US dollar.
Normally, when bond yields go up, the dollar strengthens. It's similar to a high-interest bank account: if you can earn more by holding US assets, global investors tend to pile in, increasing demand for the dollar.
But that’s not what we’re seeing today.
Instead, yields are rising while the dollar weakens—something that’s more often associated with emerging markets facing debt concerns. It signals a deeper issue: despite higher returns on offer, investors are becoming wary of the underlying fundamentals.
In short, **America’s massive debt load and relentless money printing may be starting to catch up—**even with the world’s reserve currency. And the market is beginning to take notice.
This is important to all asset classes moving forward. Keep your eyes peeled on it.
Government bonds
JAPAN GOVERMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD JP10YJP10Y, Yen Strength, and Bond Price Correlation
Key Relationships
JP10Y (Yield) and Bond Price:
Inverse Correlation: Bond prices and yields move inversely. When Japan’s 10-year government bond yield (JP10Y) rises, bond prices fall, and vice versa.
JP10Y (Yield) and Yen Strength:
Positive Correlation (Typically): Rising JP10Y often strengthens the yen (JPY) by attracting foreign capital into Japanese bonds. Higher yields make yen-denominated assets more attractive, increasing demand for JPY.
Exception: If yields rise due to fiscal instability or inflation fears (e.g., Japan’s 2025 bond yield surge to 1.59%), the yen may weaken despite higher yields, as investors prioritize safety over yield.
Bond Price and Yen Strength:
Indirect Link: Falling bond prices (rising yields) can strengthen the yen if driven by improved economic confidence or hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) policies. Conversely, bond price declines due to fiscal risks may weaken JPY.
Factors Influencing Correlation
Factor Impact on JPY Strength Impact on JP10Y (Yield)
BoJ Rate Hikes Strengthens JPY Raises JP10Y (bond prices fall)
Foreign Demand for JGBs Strengthens JPY Raises JP10Y (bond prices fall)
Carry Trade Activity Weakens JPY (if yields low) Lower JP10Y (bond prices rise)
Economic Growth/Fiscal Health Mixed (depends on context) Rises if growth/inflation up
Global Risk Sentiment Strengthens JPY (safe-haven) Lower JP10Y (bond prices rise)
Recent Examples (2024–2025)
March 2025: Japan’s 10-year bond yields surged to 1.59% (highest since 2008), driven by BoJ rate hikes and reduced bond purchases. This initially strengthened the yen, but concerns about higher borrowing costs and economic stress later tempered gains.
February 2025: Declining JGB yields (due to BoJ’s dovish signals) weakened the yen, highlighting the sensitivity of JPY to yield fluctuations.
Summary Table
Relationship Typical Direction Exceptions/Caveats
JP10Y ↑ → JPY ↑ Positive (capital inflows) Negative if driven by fiscal risks
JP10Y ↑ → Bond Prices ↓ Inverse (fundamental) Always holds
Bond Prices ↓ → JPY ↑ Indirect (if yields signal strength) Weakens if yields reflect stress
Conclusion
The correlation between JP10Y, yen strength, and bond prices hinges on the underlying driver of yield movements:
Yield rises from BoJ tightening or economic optimism → JPY strengthens.
Yield rises from fiscal instability → JPY may weaken despite higher yields.
Bond prices and yields remain inversely linked regardless of context. Traders should monitor BoJ policy, global risk sentiment, and Japan’s fiscal health to interpret these dynamics accurately.
UK GOVERMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD The correlation between the UK 10-year gilt yield (GB10Y) and GBP currency strength is nuanced and influenced by multiple factors, as of May 2025:
Key Points on GB10Y and GBP Strength Correlation
The UK 10-year gilt yield recently rose to 4.77%, its highest since April 2025, driven by hotter-than-expected inflation data (CPI at 3.5% YoY, above forecasts) and reduced market expectations for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts this year.
Typically, higher gilt yields attract foreign investment, increasing demand for GBP as investors buy sterling to purchase gilts, which tends to support GBP strength.
However, in early 2025, despite rising gilt yields (reaching 4.82% in January), the GBP weakened significantly against the USD, falling to a 14-month low. This divergence occurred because high gilt yields also signaled economic difficulties such as fiscal instability, higher borrowing needs, and inflation concerns, which weighed on sterling.
Thus, high gilt yields can have a dual effect:
Positively, by attracting yield-seeking capital inflows supporting GBP.
Negatively, by reflecting underlying economic or fiscal stress that undermines confidence in GBP.
Market reaction depends on which effect dominates. For example, if rising yields are driven by strong economic growth and tighter monetary policy, GBP tends to strengthen. If yields rise due to fiscal concerns or inflation fears, GBP may weaken despite higher yields.
Analysts note that the recent rise in gilt yields has been partly influenced by global factors (e.g., US Treasury yields) but also UK-specific inflation and fiscal issues.
The UK/US 10-year yield spread is also important: a widening spread (UK yields rising faster than US yields) tends to support GBP/USD appreciation, signaling relative UK economic strength.
Overall, the correlation between GB10Y and GBP is positive but not perfect and can be overridden by economic fundamentals, fiscal outlook, and geopolitical risks.
Summary Table
Factor Impact on GBP Strength Explanation
Rising GB10Y due to strong economy Supports GBP Attracts foreign capital inflows
Rising GB10Y due to fiscal/inflation concerns Weakens GBP Signals economic/fiscal stress
UK/US 10Y yield spread widening Supports GBP Indicates relative UK economic outperformance
Global risk-off environment Can weaken GBP despite yields Safe-haven flows favor USD or other currencies
Conclusion
While rising UK 10-year gilt yields generally support GBP strength by attracting investment, this relationship is conditional. If higher yields reflect inflation or fiscal instability, GBP may weaken despite rising yields. Traders and investors closely monitor inflation data, BoE policy signals, and the UK/US yield spread to gauge the net effect on GBP.
Here’s a direct comparison of the latest available 10-year government bond yields for JPY (Japan), GBP (UK), AUD (Australia), and USD (United States):
Country/Currency 10-Year Bond Yield (%) Notes
United States (USD) 4.54 Yields rising amid fiscal concerns, global bond sell-off.
United Kingdom (GBP) 4.77 Highest among the group; inflation data above forecasts, BoE cautious.
Australia (AUD) 4.53 Yield up after RBA rate cut; mirrors US yield trends.
Japan (JPY) 1.52 Yield at highest in over a month, but still much lower than peers.
Key Insights
GBP (UK) has the best performance on bond yield today, with the 10-year gilt at 4.77%.
USD (US) and AUD (Australia) yields are close, at 4.54% and 4.53% respectively.
JPY (Japan) lags far behind, with a 10-year yield of 1.52%.
Conclusion:
On May 21, 2025, the UK’s 10-year bond yield is the highest among GBP, JPY, AUD, and USD, making GBP the top performer in terms of government bond yield today
apan’s Bond Market Is Flashing Alarms – Carry Trade at Risk?🚨 Japan just witnessed its weakest 20-Year Government Bond auction since 1987, triggering a spike in long-dated yields:
📉 Bid-to-cover ratio at lowest since 2012
📉 Tail (spread between avg. & lowest accepted bid) was massive
📈 40Y JGB yield hit all-time highs
📈 30Y at highest since it was introduced in 1999
📈 20Y at highest level since 2000
This is a BIBLICAL move in the JGB complex.
📌 The implications?
Japan’s carry trade—a pillar of global liquidity—could be under pressure
Global bond markets may reprioritize risk
BoJ is walking a tightrope: intervene now or risk a credit crunch later?
US 10Y OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK MAY 19-23 (UPDATED DAILY)US 10y Treasury Outlook for the Week May 19-23,2025
May 19, 2025
Friday Fundamental Recap
U.S. Treasuries rose, with the 30-yr yield nearing its mid-January peak (5.005%). Gains followed Japan’s Q1 GDP contraction (-0.2%; expected -0.1%) and a strong eurozone trade surplus (EUR36.8 bln; expected EUR17.5 bln). Weak U.S. data—April Housing Starts and May Consumer Sentiment—limited gains and Moody’s U.S. credit downgrade from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16, citing $36 trillion debt, pushed yields higher.
2025 Downgrade (Moody’s, May 16, 2025):
• Immediate Reaction: Treasury yields rose after the downgrade, with 2-year Treasury yields accelerating their climb. This reflects investor demands for higher risk premiums due to perceived fiscal risks.
• Bond Prices: Higher yields correspond to lower bond prices, as investors sell off Treasuries to account for increased risk. The downgrade could lead to further price declines, especially for longer-dated bonds, if yields continue to rise.
• Market Implications: Higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government may exacerbate debt concerns, potentially leading to more volatility. Posts on X indicate expectations of “knee-jerk volatility” and a “risk-off tilt,” suggesting short-term selling pressure on Treasuries.
• Longer-Term Outlook: If investors rotate to defensive assets (e.g., gold), Treasury demand may weaken further, pushing yields higher. However, Treasuries remain the most liquid and relatively safe asset globally, which could limit the extent of yield spikes.
US Economic Calendar for the week
This week's high impact economic news will come on Thursday and Friday while the rest of the week are full of Fed speakers schedules www.myfxbook.com
Technical Outlook
Monthly
We are still trading within the April range and the closest level I could see as draw on yield is 4.59% if the weakness in price continues.
Weekly
Im a bit uncertain of the target for the week provided that we had a big news on credit down grade. If price continues to deteriorate with the news take note of previous week’s high of 4.548% to the monthly range high of 4.59% as a possible target. If market shrugs of the news look at 4.39% to be targeted.
Daily
To recap what I mentioned last Friday… “Its also important to note that market might target the Daily Volume Imbalance starting at 4.412% to 4.382%. If yield closes below 4.382% chances are price could continue to rally further. Also note the fib levels for possible key reversal points.
The news on US credit downgrade, it helped fuel the yield to rebound from our expected reversal zone. For today my bias is for yield to target previous day’s high of 4.497% if market decides to push the price lower on this news else still look at previous day low of 4.39% to 4.548%
DISCLAIMMER: This technical analysis is based on historical chart data, which may not predict future market outcomes. Any insights or interpretations I provide are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
US 10Y TREASURY: US downgradeThere is no rest for US Treasuries. The minute the trade tensions between the US and China were settled, at least for the period of 90 days, a new storm hit the market throughout rising concerns over the sustainability of the US debt. At least as this sustainability is perceived by the rating agency Moody’s, which downgraded the US sovereign rating by one notch late Friday. This news had an negative impact on the investors sentiment, but the most volatility in the US Treasury yields occurred in an after-hours trading on Friday, when the news hit the market.
Regardless of the news about US sovereign downgrade, the higher volatility was evident also during the previous week. The highest surprise came from the University of Michigan inflation expectations, which reached 7,3% for this year and 4,6% in a period of five years. This was higher from the previous estimate and certainly was a reflection of the imposed trade tariffs between the US and China. The highest weekly level of the 10Y US benchmark was 4,54%, however, yields are ending the week at the level of 4,44% in an after-hours trading on Friday. For the week ahead, there is no significant macro data scheduled for a release, however, the volatility might continue, especially on Monday. The reaction on a downgrade news might impose some increase in yields, until the market finds the new equilibrium level. On the opposite side some modest relaxation is also probable, around 4,0%-3,8% level.
US30Y : Not perfect anymoreS&P in 2011
Fitch in 2023
Now Moody downgraded it from AAA to Aa1
The reason is clear. The market thinks debt and interest payments are not sustainable for the US, Europe, Japan, and elsewhere. Bottom line: Nowhere is safe. No government bond is safe.
If it keeps climbing, above 5.25%, the Fed will have to act. The only way is QE. However, this time US will print to save just itself. No more life line swaps for the rest. Tariff would be in place. No trade with uncle SAM anymore. If you reject the rule based order, where you recycle your surplus forex and petrodollar into UST, you can expect no help.
This is the chart to watch if you are playing XAU and BTC.
For DXY, dollar may fall. Just that the other currencies will fall FASTER.
Watch it:
a) go up above 5.25%
b) then watch if the FED goes into action.
Exit stocks like what M.Burry did a few days ago.
Good luck to all of us. This will not end well.
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUpdate: May 15, 2025
-As per my last update(April 5, 2025) about the gap between March 24th candle and March 31st candle that any candle body close above that gap will invert that gap from resistance to support and Upside target will be Jan 13, 2025 candle High
- We had a candle body close above that gap and now its acting like support.
-Now i am expecting the bullish trend to continue and long term upside target is Jan 13, 2025 candle High and Short term upside target is April 7, 2025 candle high
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUS10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFA
-After sweeping the previous swing high we retraced back to 50% Fib(Equilibrium)
-Expecting this Week's candle wick to sweep Sellside Liquidity-1 and bounce
-If we bounce from here, iFVG-W (red rectangle) will be our resistance zone
-Rejection from that level can send it back to sellside and our next target will be BISI-W(green rectangle)
If any of these Support/Resistance levels are invalidated i will update the idea next week.
**Major economic events can cause drastic moves and invalidate these levels**
"The President wants lower rates"On February 5th we heard the following from US Treasury Secretary:
“The president wants lower rates,” Bessent said in an interview with Larry Kudlow, “He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury and what is the yield of that.”
Bessent has further stated:
“He wants lower rates. He is not calling for the Fed to lower rates,” Bessent said. Trump believes that “if we deregulate the economy, if we get this tax bill done, if we get energy down, then rates will take care of themselves and the dollar will take care of itself.”
“We cut the spending, we cut the size of government, we get more efficiency in government, and we’re going to go into a good interest rate cycle,” Bessent said.
Currently, the bond market is calling BS on the above.
IMO the only way the bond market will come down meaningfully is if and only if there is fiscal responsibility. At some point the government will understand what the bond market demands...until then we will stay higher for longer. I would not be surprised at all if the 10 year hits 5.3% this year.
A doubling of the move in the lower orange box should not surprise anyone....that puts the 10 year somewhere in the 5.4% range. IMO anywhere between 5.3 and 5.6 is certainly possible and maybe even probable.
US 10Y TREASURY: tariffs negotiationsAnother rollercoaster of US Treasury yields calmed down after the FOMC meeting held during the previous week. As expected, the Fed did not make any changes to the current levels of interest rates. However, in case that trade tariffs cause some harm to the US economy, the Fed is in position to react swiftly. The economy is still growing at a solid pace, as Fed officials see it, and the jobs market is relatively strong while the inflation is still on the target to reach gradually 2% in the coming period.
The 10Y US benchmark yields reached lowest weekly level at 4,26% and moved to the higher grounds in the after FOMC meeting trading. They have closed the week at the level of 4,39%. Markets will spend the week ahead by digesting the latest economic data and also April inflation which is due for the release on Monday. However, the US-China trade tariffs negotiations are expected to start soon, which might bring again some higher volatility and nervousness among investors and traders on the market. As per current charts, some relaxation in the 10Y yields is quite possible, however, the impact of news related to negotiations could impact moves to both sides.
US 10Y Monthly, Weekly and Daily Bias(note ill be using the charting tool Trading view for faster annotations for multi-timeframe analysis)
A. Please check relevant US Economic news that might influence price action {eco us }
May 13 US Cpi & Inflation day
May 15 Jobless Claims, Retail sales, PPI, Empire Mfg Index, Fed Powell Speech
May 16 Housing Starts
you may also access in the web and filter the high impact news feed (www.myfxbook.com)
B. Monthly Range
Price action is currently confined to April range high of 4.59% and range low 3.86%
C. Weekly Range
My Bias for the week is to target 4.43% possibly 4.489% if yield starts trading below 4.262% our bias would change.
D. Daily Bias (May 12) will try to update this daily
Previous day high has already been mitigated and I'm more biased to say the first weekly old high's 4.438% will be targeted
US10Y - Yield Volatility Amid Fed Policy StanceThe 10-year Treasury yield fluctuated between 4.30% and 4.39% this week, closing at 4.382% on May 9.
The Federal Reserve maintained benchmark rates at 4.50%, dismissing pressure from the Trump administration for cuts. Chair Powell emphasised persistent inflationary risks and labor market stability, reinforcing a cautious "higher-for-longer" stance.
4.400% intermediate term buyside liquidity is a point of interest going forward.
How US01Y may relate to stock crashesUsing the 200 Week Moving Average,
we spot that stock crashes often relate with drop in short term bond yields.
Prior to 2008, yield rates usually drop by a few percents by hardly below 0.5%.
However since QE in 2008, bond yield decrease to a nearly 0% level.
These features allow us to spot these financial crisis on the graph easily.
However, whether if this indicator is leading indicator or lagging indicator requires future research.
The Long, Flat Road AheadWith the Federal Reserve’s rate decision in focus, I wanted to revise a previous idea that called for 6% on the 10 year T-bill, and provide a clearer read on what I’m seeing as the larger trend, which could provide important clues for the future of everything from monetary policy, to mortgage rates, and stocks.
Starting with the 500R chart, I think we are seeing a clear flat correction form, with the current segment of the trend being Wave C of (B). In a flat correction, the endpoint of (B) should reach at least 100% of (A). It can also extend further or, in less common cases, only reach 90% of (A), however for the purposes of this idea I will assume the yield will retrace to the 100% level, which is just above 5%.
If this were to play out, it would suggest incoming pressure to financial markets that will eventually subside, likely later in the year. Something else to look for is that if this (B) wave were to fit a Zig Zag structure, that would cause waves (A) and (B) to be of the same pattern, so we should anticipate an alternate pattern in (C), such as a flat, diagonal, or triangle.
The question on everybody's mind at the moment is if/when the next interest rate cut is coming. For today's announcement, I expect there to be no surprises, which can also be supported by short term technicals.
Looking at the 100R chart (right) and Daily chart (left) at the same time provides useful context. The yield bounced off the 0.618 retracement of the 4/4 - 4/11 rise (labeled as 0.382 on the fib extension) and should have upward momentum. On the contrary, the Daily chart shows resistance at what appears to be a more well-defined lower high, with imbalances below. On the 100R chart, I also have a box drawn to show the extremities of the 500R bar. I expect the yield to move higher without creating a new 500R bar - which means the max low would be just below 4.10%.
A retracement to this level would lead to the yield hitting the middle line of the lower imbalance, which should be a key liquidity zone. From there, a move to the 1.618 extension would take the yield to the targeted 5%.
Something else I look for when detecting reversals is divergence on the Fisher Transform oscillator. I have it on both charts, which suggests a near-term move to the downside. Divergences are even more reliable on the Range charts, so a slightly lower low on the yield occurring while Fisher makes a higher low would signal that yields are about to rise higher.
Assuming we see similar action play out, this would support my fundamental prediction that FOMC will temporarily provide relief to the markets - possibly from there being no surprises or dovish comments on rate cuts. I would, however, expect this to be short lived. Since I am already calling for stocks to be near a major reversal level, I expect a sharp rise in bond yields to correspond with a more powerful sell off of stocks than what we saw in February-April. More likely catalysts could be hot CPI and/or failure of US/China trade talks.
Since there isn't much left to comment about on the technical side of things, I'll leave it at that. I ultimately expect the yield to start moving to 5%, so if it starts moving higher from here (4.36% currently), it would invalidate the idea that this will make one more push lower this week. We'll see what happens. Thank you for reading and let me know what you think!
Will The FED cut rates? Maximum employment & stable prices were the choice of words from Jerome Powell last meeting addressing the economy.
While the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year in March 2025, the core PCE, which excludes food & energy, increased by 2.6%. Additionally the NY Fed's multivariate core trend suggests underlying inflation may be closer to 3.0%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures.
The April jobs report showed stronger than expected job growth, with unemployment remaining steady at 4.2%. This robust labor market reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts.
Recent tariff implementations have contributed to rising inflation expectations, with a one year outlook projecting 6.5% inflation. This complicates the Fed's decision making, as cutting rates amid rising inflation expectations could undermine its credibility.
Now let's zoom out to June 2025 the probability of a rate cut at the June meeting has decreased to 37% following strong economic data.
My Chart gives a great outlook on rate cut possibilities and how we can take an overall outlook on the economy based on 10 yr Government Bond. I was able to add in a few important dates along with starting & ending points of rate cuts throughout those time frames. I did not include all the rate cuts in between. However, it can still serve as a great indicator moving forward. I hope this helps and let's hope for the best in our economy moving forward.