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XAO - AU10YR - Australian Stock Market - 10 YR Bond YieldsStarting with this video, I'll begin incorporating insights from AriasWave into each new release. Here, I dive deep into what I believe to be the true pattern of the Australian Stock Market and discuss what might unfold next. I also analyze 10-year bond yields, presenting a case for significantly higher rates—potentially reaching at least 16%. This isn't just about making bold predictions; I break down the reasoning behind these conclusions using detailed wave analysis.
TVC:AU10Y
by AriasWave
1
US10Y 1D RSI Bearish Divergence signals a long-term sell.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the December 27 2023 Low. The price is above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and is approaching the patterns top. The 1D RSI is already making a bearish reversal though, having posted Lower Highs against the price's Higher Highs, which technically is a Bearish Divergence. As a result, we expect the Bullish Leg to top soon and then reverse to the Channel's new Bearish Leg. The previous one made a Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern on the 1.2 Fibonacci extension level and as a result our Target is just above it at 3.500%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
The Best Explanation of The Bond Market You're Ever Gonna Get12 Month US10Y Bollinger Bands between 2.5 and 2.9 Standard Deviations away from a moving average model greater than 4 years in length, preferably exponential. I haven't optimized this to perfection, but it's close enough to give you the basic idea. The bond market is just a simple oscillator emerging from a complex system and simply does what every other very large and complex system does. It has a trend around which it travels but in decades and centuries not years. It isn't complicated, but it is extremely slow. There are 2 phases and a 5,000 year long trend. It goes up. It goes down. Over the course of centuries it declines. In the down phase, it stays below trend and does the exact opposite in the opposite phase. A kindergartener can trade this thing. Currently the phase is turning over from a down phase that lasted from 1980 to 2020, and entering into a new up phase that will most likely last for 3-4 decades. Trading it: buy secondary market long duration government bonds at the bond yield 3 standard deviation line and sell at the trend. Repeat for the next 30-40 years. Easy peasy.
TVC:US10YShort
by MarkLefevre
2
US 10Y TREASURY: still digestingIt was an interesting week for US Treasury bonds. Although markets went into hype after the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the US, the 10Y Treasury yields remained out of this scope. Their exclusive focus was on the FOMC meeting and Fed’s next move. As expected, the Fed cut interest rates by another 25 bps, with a solid overview of the US economy at this moment. The 10Y Treasury benchmark reached its highest weekly level at 4,47%, after which some relaxation came, down to the level of 4,30%. Markets will use the week ahead to digest currently available data. The Fed has another FOMC meeting scheduled in December. Markets are expecting, with currently 75% odds that the Fed will make another rate cut by 25 bps. In line with this sentiment, it could be expected that 10Y Treasury yields will continue with a relaxation. However, some volatility might also be expected, where the yields might shortly turn to the upside, testing levels modestly above current 4,3% level, before they make a move toward the 4,2% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Yields USA 1. 1-Month Yield (4.596%): - The short-term yield here is the highest, which might indicate a risk premium for investors lending to the government over such a short period. This could also reflect the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policies, which may be keeping short-term rates high to combat inflation. 2. 1-Year Yield (4.316%) and 2-Year Yield (4.252%): - The yields for 1-year and 2-year bonds are slightly lower than the 1-month yield, which is unusual in a normal yield curve, where rates typically increase with maturity. This could indicate an inverted yield curve, often seen as a sign of an economic slowdown or potential recession. Investors may be anticipating future rate cuts due to an expected economic weakening. 3. 10-Year Yield (4.308%): - The 10-year yield is close to the short-term rates, confirming a relatively flat or even inverted yield curve. Typically, the 10-year yield is higher in a growth environment. Here, a yield similar to short-term bonds suggests low confidence in long-term economic growth or expectations of stabilized inflation. 4. 30-Year Yield (4.473%): - The 30-year yield remains close to short-term yields, with a slight increase compared to the 10-year but still within the same range. This configuration indicates that the market does not anticipate strong long-term economic growth or significant inflation increases. It may also signal that investors seek the safety of long-term assets despite similar yields to shorter-maturity bonds. The yield curve appears inverted or very flat, which is often interpreted as a sign of caution or economic uncertainty. This structure reflects a potential anticipation of an economic slowdown, where the Federal Reserve might need to lower rates in the coming years if inflation is controlled and economic growth slows. Investors may be seeking protection by purchasing long-term bonds, anticipating lower rates in the future.
TVC:US10Y
by eLs-Trading
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value. Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart. #US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
TVC:US10Y
by AFCapital21
US10Y: Rejection at the top of the 1W Channel Down. Prime short.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield may still be bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 59.113, MACD = 0.016, ADX = 38.613), but this week's candle is getting rejected at the top of the 1 year Channel Down. If it closes in red it will be the first in almost 2 months and a clear technical signal that a bearish reversal has started. The 1W RSI has also started to reverse. As a consequence, we are turning bearish on the US10Y as of now, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.480) where the previous LL was formed. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
Hidden Bearish Divergence on Yield US Treasury 10YrWhile RSI 14 reach above 70, TVC:US10Y formed a lower low compare to when the last time RSI 14 were above 70 (Apr'24). They say this is a hidden Divergence, a Bearish one. I predict the Yield will fall to 3.6% but still within the Bullish Continuation pattern in the medium to long term. Meaning that the strengthening price of US Bond is temporary before they fall and push the yield higher to the level of Global Financial Crisis in 2008.
TVC:US10YLong
by mmdcharts
1
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Update The UK 10-year gilt yield is showing a potentially interesting setup on the chart! A symmetrical triangle pattern appears to be forming, and a weekly close above 4.75% could confirm this formation, with a longer-term target up to 6.60%. Recently, yields surged to 4.51%, the highest in a year, following reactions to the Labour government’s first budget. Key highlights include: • 📈 £28 billion in increased borrowing per year across parliament. • 💰 £297 billion in bond sales this fiscal year—second largest on record. • 💸 £40 billion in new tax hikes, aimed at boosting funding for public services and covering a £22 billion fiscal gap. The Office for Budget Responsibility adjusted GDP growth forecasts up to 1.1% for this year but revised down to 2% for 2025. Meanwhile, inflation is projected to average 2.5% in 2024, peaking at 2.6% in 2025, then easing to 2% by 2029. The Bank of England is still expected to cut rates by 25bps this week, though traders now anticipate three quarter-point cuts by 2025's end (down from five last week). Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:GB10Y
by The_STA
US 10Y TREASURY: FOMC rate decisionSurprisingly low Non-farm payrolls of 12K surprised markets and shaped investors sentiment as of the end of the previous week. The US Treasury yields were heading higher testing shortly the level of 4,3%, however, Friday's noisy NFPs pushed the yields toward the 4,36% level. The week ahead will be the crucial one of the further courses of the 10Y Treasury benchmark. On November 7th, the FOMC will decide on the further course of US interest rates. It is to be seen how Fed currently perceives the US jobs market, and whether such a low jobs level will have an impact on Fed decision. At this moment, the market is expecting to see a further 25 bps cut. At this moment, there is an indication of a possibility that the market will test the level of 4,4%, before the yields ease a bit back. Still, due to US Presidential elections and the FOMC rate decision, this might be another highly volatile week on US financial markets.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
WHAT'S FLOWING: EURAUD | CADCHF | GBPAUD | BRENT | COPPER + MORETop Row Charts: EUR/AUD (Top Left): Market is trending upwards, labeled as "LONG", possibly indicating a buy signal based on the trend or setup shown. CAD/CHF (Top Middle): Seems to be range-bound with no distinct trend breakout, potentially in consolidation. GBP/AUD (Top Right): Marked as "LONG", showing a bullish trend continuation. Bottom Row Charts: Brent Crude Oil (Bottom Left): Labeled as "SHORT", indicating potential bearish momentum or correction. Copper (Bottom Middle): Another chart marked "SHORT", likely reflecting a downtrend or sell signal. UK100 Index (Bottom Right): This chart also indicates "SHORT", suggesting possible weakness in the index. DXY (Bottom Right): Labeled as "FLAT", indicating a lack of directional bias in the U.S. dollar index, showing indecisive or range-bound trading. These charts seem to be using TPO (Time Price Opportunity) profiles and volume profiles, which help traders analyze price action around key levels, identifying areas of value or imbalance. You are likely monitoring multiple assets (forex pairs, commodities, indices) for potential trade setups, distinguishing between trending and consolidating markets.
FPMARKETS:US10YR
by moneymagnateash
US 10Y TREASURY: PCE and NFP aheadDuring the previous week there has been a lack of new macro data which would point to markets the course of inflation and potential next Feds move regarding interest rates. Still, the markets are watching closely any statements from Fed officials, and trying to position according to the current sentiment. Considering that statements from Feds officials were pretty cautious regarding the future rate cuts, the markets reacted by increasing yields. The US 10Y benchmark started the week by testing the 4,0% level, and moved to the highest weekly level at 4,25%. Yields eased on Friday, ending the week at 4,18%. The week ahead is bringing a release of new PCE and Non-farm payrolls data, which would most certainly bring some increased volatility back to the market. There is the potential that the yields might continue to slow down during the week, however, in case of any surprises related to macro data, yields could also hit the 4,25% level for one more time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1