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US 10yr Yields Eyeing 5%?Chart Analysis: The 10-Year US Treasury Yield continues to climb within a well-defined ascending channel, highlighting robust bullish momentum in recent months. 1️⃣ Ascending Channel: Yields are trading near the upper boundary of the ascending channel (green-shaded area), reflecting sustained upward pressure. Traders should monitor reactions at this boundary for potential breakout attempts or a pullback toward the channel’s midline. 2️⃣ Key Resistance Levels: 4.80%: Immediate resistance level, capping recent gains. 5.02%: A critical horizontal resistance zone, representing a multi-year high and potential target on continued strength. 3️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): Trending upward at 4.33%, providing dynamic support. 200-day SMA (red): Rising at 4.24%, reinforcing the broader bullish trend. 4️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 75.68, signaling overbought conditions, which may precede a consolidation or corrective pullback. MACD: Bullish momentum remains strong, with the MACD line above the signal line and in positive territory. What to Watch: Sustained breaks above 4.80% could pave the way for a test of 5.02%, with potential for further upside if this resistance fails. Any pullback may find support near the 50-day SMA or the ascending channel’s lower boundary. RSI overbought conditions suggest vigilance for potential divergences or reversal signals. The 10-Year Yield’s bullish structure remains intact, supported by rising moving averages and upward momentum. However, caution is warranted as yields approach critical resistance levels. -MW
TVC:US10Y
by FOREXcom
SG10Y - a peek into the next few weeks.As pointed previously for the last few years... the SG10Y Singapore Govt 10 year Bond Yields chart have an uncanny correlation to give us a heads up on when the US Equity markets like the S&P500 SPY SPX are going to keel over and drop. On such instance is here and now. A higher high and a clear breakout after a Fibonacci retracement, within a bigger retracement. This is a clear and present indication that (US) equity markets are going to keel over and drop. Bears are just around the corner. Pain till Mid-Feb Heads up.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
US 10Y TREASURY: surprise, surpriseThe US jobs data posted during the previous week was the highest surprise for markets in the recent period. The US economy added 256K new jobs in December, which was much higher from market expectations. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped to the level of 4.1%. Certainly, such developments are positive for the US, however, investors were not happy. A strong jobs market and a too strong US economy will make the Fed halt further cuts of interest rates. Some analysts already came up with their predictions that the first rate cut in 2025 might occur in September. For other analysts it is questionable whether the Fed will cut even once in 2025. Whatever these initial expectations, still the FOMC meeting is scheduled for January 28th, where more information will be available and further priced. The US 10Y benchmark yields reacted strongly to jobs data on Friday. Yields reached higher grounds, at 4,76%. At one moment, yields reached the level of 4,8%. Yields returned to the levels from April last year. Until the January FOMC meeting, it could be expected that the market will continue to test levels around the 4,8%. However, the picture will be much clearer after the inputs from Feds officials. Hopefully, there will be no more surprises.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
[EUCHF] Reallocating your FIAT-Cash to your friendly neighbour OANDA:EURCHF Hello all, TL;DW: Without seeing a precise trade entry/exit this 'trade' is more about positioning you FIAT into another country. 🧀 The reward is (more) cheese Knowing that inflation will (hopefully not!) come back in full in 2025, it can be a wise move to prepare for it in advance and position yourself accordingly. 🧀 Super Swiss Cheese Target of below 0.9 and below I assume a continuation in this drawn channel of standard-deviations, which will lead to a target over a time horizon of 9+ months somewhere at 0.90 or further below 0.85. Please also watch the video. Thanks! 🚀
TVC:DE10YShort
by OiconomiX_io
Market Update: UK 10Y Yields Back on Nov 4th, we highlighted a potential triangle pattern on UK 10Y yields. 📈 At the time, we noted that a weekly close above 4.75% would complete the pattern, offering a potential longer-term upside target of 6.6%. Last week, we got a weekly close above 4.75%! While a monthly close would strengthen the case, for now, as long as yields stay above 4.50%, I'm leaning into this scenario. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:GB10YLong
by The_STA
Bond prices under pressureThe price on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to almost 96.0 on Friday, after payrolls report came stronger than expected, reinforcing the view that Fed would need to slow down rate cuts. The price on the UK 10-year gilt fell to 89.6, the lowest since August 2008, and broke down the support at 91.0.The pressure in the UK bond market has been further amplified by mounting investor concerns over the nation’s debt levels and the government's ability to restore public finances while implementing its budget plans. This rise reflects a broader increase in bond yields fuelled by concerns over Trump’s policies and a hawkish outlook from the Fed.
OANDA:UK10YBGBP
by TCDAN
10y+ bonds are becoming even more attractive for investorsThe US economy in December added the most jobs since March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, capping a surprisingly strong year and supporting the case for a pause in Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Nonfarm payrolls increased 256,000, exceeding all but one forecast of economists. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from November. YIELDS are rising, and traders are fully pricing in the first rate cut in October. The 10-year yield may aim for the 5% level, similar to the March 2023 movement. However, let's not forget that at that time the interest rate was 5.5%, and there were no expectations for combating 9% inflation. Currently, inflation is even below 3%, and concerns that the US will impose new sanctions or that tax cuts will create a new wave of inflation are purely speculative fears, not facts, which have created an emotional backdrop in the markets. On the contrary, 10, 20, and 30-year bonds are becoming even more attractive for investors. And don't forget, pre-election promises often do not turn into reality.
TVC:US10YShort
by gorgevorgian
3
1Q2024 outlook pre-December NFP'sBack in December before the November non-farm payroll print, the US 10-year yield was sitting just below the 4.20% which coincided with the 50- and 200-day MAs. Since the stronger than expected payroll print of 227 thousand, yields have spiked aggressively to highs just above 4.7% earlier this week. (See the attached idea from December) It is difficult to gauge how the payrolls will affect the US bond market today but I still believe the US 10-year yield will reach the 2023 highs of 5% given the strong upward trend. The turmoil in the UK gilt market also does not bode well for investor risk sentiment as we may be witnessing a historic resurgence of the so called bond vigilantes. Over to the technical indicators, a short-term pullback towards the 50-day MA at 4.41% and the zone between 4.45% and 4.50% seems like the next move following today’s payroll print. The US 10-year seems a bit overstretched and the RSI indicator is hinting at a bearish divergence. This will however just be a short-term pullback and as long as we remain above the 50-day MA, a 5.00% yield on the 10-year seems inevitable.
TVC:US10YLong
by Goose96
Bond market bottom ? Equites down bonds to change and move up?Simply put, USA needs the interest rate to be lower, it bounces off the long term KLOS then we could see a change in direction for bonds something that next to no one is expecting. Trump is coming into help save the world. So his new team will make structural changes Elon could tweet to all to buy bonds and hey everyone who follows him takes action to save their own butts. Elon fixes the deficit hugely in relative proportions without putting the jobs at risk. That would on the one hand help savers and people with mortgages as if the price of the bonds goes up then interest rates go down. however the loss to Americans from their stock portfolios does not help the total money held by Americans. The box represents only 7% away price may reverse at round number 100, which is not so far away now. This area offers strong KLOS for a bounce from 2004 levels You could get short term fed notes which pay well and would benefit from any reduction in interest rates. I think these would hold their prices or go up a bit because they may get bid but the money moving out of equites. Interest rates to move lower ? (with a bit of dollar weakness ?) this will reduce the payments all governments need to make globally so as to stretch their budgets rather then raise taxes.
OANDA:USB30YUSDLong
by William_Playfair
2024 review and where to from here for US10yRisk-off sentiment doesn’t seem to last long in this current market despite all the geopolitical tensions, election volatility and inflation fears we witnessed this year. In spite of all the volatility and the odd carry trade squeeze the SPX is set to end the year up more than 25%, its second year on the trot of more than 20% gains. Never the less the US10 is on its way to close the year down roughly 4.5%. Meanwhile gold, a risk-off asset similar to US long-term treasuries, touched fresh all-time highs in October at $2,792 per ounce, up almost 30% year-to-date, and bitcoin (regardless whether you see it as a store of value, casino capitalism coin or a reserve asset) is up 125% year-to-date. The US 10-year yield was off to the races in the first four months of the year off the back of elevated inflation and modest US labour market growth which saw yields climb to highs of 4.7%. 10-year yields however turned at the end of April after US CPI topped out at 3.5% in April while the US unemployment rate continued to tick higher. I initially expected treasuries to continue their sell-off in the 2Q2024 and the US 10-year yield to break above the April high of 4.7% to complete another wave higher towards 5.0% however the forward guidance from the Fed coupled with their self-proclaimed victory against inflation ultimately pushed bids for bonds. Additionally, in June the ECB, BOE and other major central banks started front running the Fed with their rate cuts which strengthened the demand for treasuries and the dollar. The failed break above 4.5% in July coupled with the US unemployment rate topping out at a rate of 4.3% let the bond bulls loose. Yields continued to slide rapidly in the 3Q2024 until Japanic Monday on the 5th of August when the carry trade squeeze scorched short positions on the Japanese Yen after the BoJ’s surprise rate hike. Bond bulls managed to pull the yield down to a low of 3.6% before the Fed’s 50bps rate cut unexpectedly halted their run. Counter intuitively, longer-term yields have been rising since the Fed started cutting the federal funds rate. The Fed controls the short the short-end of the yield curve and with the Fed cutting rates coupled with the treasury sell-off, the market finally saw the normalization of the yield curve which has been inverted since July 2022! So, where to from here? The conclusion of the US election results saw treasury yields come off of their highs of around 4.5% but the current sell-off may still have legs if the bond vigilantes see another bout of inflation on the horizon. Additionally, the Fed has indicated that they are in no hurry to cut rates, opting for a more hawkish stance. The last non-farm payroll print will be released on Friday which may give some technical direction for yields heading into 2025. A break below the 200-day and 50-day MA around 4.2% will allow yields to drop back below 4% as we head into the New Year. My prediction is however for a re-test of the 2024 high at 4.7% early in 2025. A break above the 61.8% Fibo level of 4.3% will be an early indication of this move. In terms of technical indicators the RSI still has room to move higher and is close to oversold ranges while a cross of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA will signal a golden cross. Additionally the impulse wave following the Fed rate cut was very strong which signals to me that we are current seeing a bullish pullback in yields (bearish for bonds).
TVC:US10YLong
by Goose96
US10Y afternoon analysisTechnical analysis for US10Y. Bearish on long-term bonds, this analysis has yields continuing to go up. Displayed count has A wave beginning off 9 March 2020 low, completed 23 October 2023. B wave as completed zigzag to September 17 2024 low. C wave count in wave 3 of 3, with targets of 5.337% and 5.592%. This count shows C wave completing at top of pitchfork (drawn off 9 March 2020 low), but with measured move I would expect the C wave to complete north of 6.496%. Key supports: 4.507% and 4.126% Key resistances: 4.739% and 5.021%
TVC:US10YShort
by discobiscuit
1
US 10Y TREASURY: expected economic outlookInvestors continue to weigh the US economic outlook for the year 2025, and adjust their positions accordingly. Although there has not been significant US macro data released during the previous week, still, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report for December showed that the US manufacturing remained under pressure. Also, weekly jobs data missed the investors’ expectations. The market reacted with further decrease of the price of the US Treasuries, increasing the 10Y benchmark yield to the highest weekly level of 4,62%. Still, they have ended the week at 4,60%. In a week ahead, the US non-farm payroll data are set for a release. This might bring further volatility to the market, and a reaction in modestly higher 10Y yields. The higher volatility might continue through the month, prior to the January FOMC meeting, scheduled for January 28-29th.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX