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The DXY and Yields are Set up to Make a Midday ReversalThe DXY and the 30 Year Yield have been on the decline for most of the day but are now showing signs of reversing back up at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat and a Bullish Shark in the form of MACD Bullish Divergence and PPO Confirmation, respectively. When these two start to rise again it is very likely that the QQQ start to continue down as it is trading at the PCZ of a Bearish Deep Crab and has formed Potential MACD Hidden Bearish Divergence and if it starts to go down it will also give us Bearish PPO Confirmation which from there may result in a fast move down to make a lower low. All of this will likely be triggered by whatever the Fed has to say today.
TVC:US30YLong
by RizeSenpai
1
Inverted Yield US10Y-US02Y==Late 1970s to Early 1980s: Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted several times between the late 1970s and early 1980s. Economic Outcome: The U.S. experienced two recessions during this period: one in 1980 and another in 1981-1982. Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experiencing declines during these recessions. ==Late 1980s: Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in late 1988 and early 1989. Economic Outcome: This inversion was followed by a mild recession in 1990. Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced a downturn in 1990, with the DJIA dropping by around 20%. ==Late 1990s to Early 2000s: Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in 2000. Economic Outcome: The U.S. entered a recession in 2001, partly due to the bursting of the dot-com bubble. Stock Market Outcome: The stock market began a decline in 2000, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index dropping significantly due to the collapse of many internet-based companies. ==2006-2007: Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in late 2006 and remained inverted into 2007. Economic Outcome: The Great Recession began in December 2007 and lasted until June 2009, triggered by a housing market crash and subsequent financial crisis. Stock Market Outcome: The stock market experienced a significant decline, with the DJIA losing more than 50% of its value from its peak in 2007 to its trough in 2009. ==2019: Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in August 2019. Economic Outcome: While many analysts were concerned about a potential recession, the U.S. economy remained resilient in 2019 and early 2020. However, the unforeseen COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a global economic downturn. Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced a sharp decline in early 2020 due to the pandemic, with the DJIA dropping by over 30% in a matter of weeks. It's essential to note that while the inverted yield curve has been a reliable predictor of recessions in the past, the exact timing between the inversion and the onset of a recession can vary. Additionally, other factors, such as global events, fiscal policies, and technological shifts, can also play significant roles in economic outcomes.
TVC:US10YShort
by MidasAlgo
Why we expect EURUSD SPX to keep falling.Dear fellows. In this short video we present our case that EURUSD tracks US10Y since 2020 on an inverse relationship. We also expect the yield curve to keep steepening, and by assuming Fed funds rate "higher for longer", US10Y is expected to rise further. Higher US10Y, thus, implies in lower EURUSD and SPX, as well as other major market indexes. The particular dynamics of each does not ensure a day to day follow up, however, eventually they do catch up. Thank you very much for your time. Critics and suggestions are welcome. Best regards.
TVC:US10YShort
by greenfield_br
3
US05Y-EU05Y EURUSD, just went long $FXEMy two most recent posts were identifying a potential upcoming trade idea behind Euro bouncing back vs. USD soon, the chart today has made it looked more prime for reversal, finding ever increasing support, and slightly weakening 5 year yields in both Euro and U.S.. The difference between the two looks like it may start to contract a little in the coming weeks as well, which should send Euro higher. As a slight update to my previous post linked at the bottom, I've updated that chart to include the EU05Y and US05Y yields on the same scale, and the difference between the two (US05Y-EU05Y) on a different scale on the left. It gives a little more complete picture that may help pick out the longer term trend shifts. Zoomed in some on just the EURUSD, seeing how it's seemingly bottomed out, finding support here, and attempted a sharp rally this morning that was equally sharply rejected, but seems like this it's found support again and the trend for the coming weeks may well be a reversal to the upside for the Euro. On the 5 year bonds side of things, both have set slightly lower highs than last week, with there being a bigger drop for the US 5 year than the Euro. Possible we're seeing a slow down of those yields going higher, with the US possibly losing a little more yield than the Euro. Seems prime for a reversal after more than a month and a half of the Euro sliding. With that in mind, I did go long some AMEX:FXE 20 Oct 23 101 strike calls this morning. A little risky and out of the money with some time left, but if this rallies as I hope it will, the payoff should be pretty nice. Trading price at the time of trade was about $98.81. Ask side was 0.30. Contracts in the money at the moment trade for more than 1.00.
TVC:EU05YLong
by dieseldub
US10Y: Short term pullback ahead.The US10Y hit the top of the five month Channel Up, which started after a 5 time hold on the Support Zone, while the RSI shifted to LH (RSI = 68.642, MACD = 0.088, ADX = 56.354). Having completed a common +12% increase, we get the same sell signal as all prior Higher Lows. Our target is Fibonacci 0.5 (TP = 4.315%), highly likely on course for contact with the 1D MA50. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
1
US 10Y TREASURY: at overbought sideFed Chair Powell's speech after the FOMC meeting, held on Wednesday significantly moved the markets during the second half of the previous week. A “higher for longer” wording used by FOMC members was not welcomed by the market. Fed Chair Powell mentioned another rate hike till the end of this year, with an expected rate cut somewhere during the end of the next year. FOMC projected reference rates to end 2024 at 5.1%. Such projections implied immediate market reaction and 10Y yields reached their highest levels since 2007 and level of 4.50%. Yields are ending the week at a level of 4.43%. RSI index reached a clear overbought side, which would in the case of 10Y yields, mean that the market had priced in new information received from Fed Chair Powell. There will be another rate hike till the end of this year, and a level of 4.5% has been priced. From now on, it could be expected some relaxation in the yields, which might return slowly to the level of 4.3% in the coming period. The level of uncertainty is currently increased on the market, but at this moment, further move beyond 4.5% level should not be expected.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Multi-year highs for US 10Y yieldThe Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has led to a significant rise in US Treasury yields, reaching levels not seen in several years. This has, in turn, bolstered the US Dollar while putting pressure on US stock markets. Later this week, investors will closely monitor the release of US core PCE data, seeking additional insights into the country's inflation trends. In the short term, with the recent breakthrough above levels last observed in 2008, our primary focus remains on the upside, particularly towards the psychologically significant 5.00 mark and the 2006 peak at 5.25. Looking further ahead, we've used the width of the downward channel as a basis for measuring potential future gains. This analysis points to a longer-term target approaching 6.00."
TVC:US10YLong
by The_STA
Who's ready for a FRED 50 Trillion Balance Sheet? I Am. Japan has no completely lost control of their bond yields. Japan has completely lost control the US Yield Curve Control. The FRED paused (as I expected they had no choice). The FRED realizing they need to initiate YCC / QE / Rate Cuts before end of 2023 or we're going to see an economic meltdown. Option 1, let yields raise > mortgages blow up > bank collateral blows up bail out 100 Trillion. Option 2, start YCC / QE / Rate Cuts down > things don't blow up but spend 50 Trillion. What's hilarious is there is ZERO news coverage on this ZERO, the USA setup a YCC facility with the BOJ to patch bond yields yet the JAPANESE currency CANNOT handle it and the BOJ is starting to actually panic / tap out. People waiting for a "country" to enact the third world war, I'll give you a hint they always start when some major financial system breaks. That's this this is where we are at. Japan has a GDP of only 4.941 Trillion, if they initiate more YCC / QE they will start to turn into the Turkish Lira and then mass people are going to panic about US bonds. THERE IS ZERO chance we get to 2025 without a FRED balance sheet of over at least 30 Trillion, buckle up.
TVC:US10Y
by FederalXBT