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Government bonds

Attention is on the 200-day ma on the EU 10Y yield chartDisclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:EU10Y
by The_STA
US 10Y yield looks to be failing at its downtrendDisclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
US 10Y TREASURY: pending 3.6% levelFed Chair Powell was speaking in front of the US Senate during the previous week, and confirmed what was previously said, that the Fed would most probably hit the rates for two more times till the end of this year. Market expectations are that the rates would be increased by additional 50 bps, which means two times 25 bps hikes. The 10Y US benchmark yields were moving around 3.8% at the beginning of the week, but ended the week around 3.68%. Still, Friday's trading close was at a level of 3.73%. The market continues to perceive an inverted yield curve, meaning that the rates would certainly have to go down. Charts are also perceiving some further relaxation in 10Y yields. Charts continue to point to the level of 3.6% as the next target of 10Y yields. This level might be tested in the coming week or two. On the opposite side, at this moment there is no indication that the yields might go higher from 3.8% and there is a low probability that this level might be tested for one more time in the coming week.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
10y and 2y yield curves inverted--market crash when?The blue line is the inverted yield curve 10y-2y. Two other times where it got to low levels preceded the 2001 and 2008 crashes. But the orange circles mark where the crashes actually began and the markets fell, several months later after the inverted yields bottomed. The bottoms last five to eight months each before the inverted yields started to resolve and move up again. But it was 6-8 months later when the crashes began. If this holds true for today, our bottoming process is just getting started so we could be six months from the inverted yield curve moving up. Then it could take six more months before a crash begins.
TVC:US10Y
by Mokerkane
German Bond Yields DE10Y, DE02Y, DE01YThe German 10Y notes began to move higher slowly since early 2021, and rapidly in 2022 like we all know of. The ECB deposit facility as of 21.06.23 is 3.5% and main refinancing operations is 4%. Like most of us know, the bond market is a major leading indicator of the future rates, and the DE02Y and DE10Y indicate lower rates ahead in the coming months, hinting that we're at the top of interest rates hiking cycle by the ECB. Lets watch how things fold out ;)
TVC:DE10Y
by Sujay_fi
1
GB10Y - UK pensions at risk? update. #BOE #recession"The Bank of England has hiked interest rates to 5 per cent in a further blow to homeowners struggling with spiralling mortgage costs. The rise, up from 4.5 per cent, is the sharpest increase since February – surprising economists who had been expecting a smaller increase of 0.25 percentage points – and sends interest rates to their highest level in 15 years! The move is set to deepen the mortgage crisis as borrowing costs rose for the 13th time in a row in an effort to curb inflation." *Fractal taken from 2007 high for the GB10Y - Gilt/Bond, reaching similar level's before reversing back down. I would expect the same to happen going forward. inflation is way above current interest rates, with the BOE stuck between banking crisis or a recession. I believe we'll see both! - Banking crisis, potential bail out's - expanding the currency supply further which will create more inflation! Pension's will continue too loose value, as bank of England will not be able to raise rates high enough to match inflation. "It comes as the rate of inflation remains unexpectedly stubborn – frozen at 8.7 per cent in May. Analysts had expected the Consumer Prices Index, which peaked at 11.1 per cent in October last year, to fall back to 8.4 per cent." What does this mean for the value of the pound? I'm actually expecting more strength in the GBP - purely from the weakness of the dollar. I would expect the fed to continue to pause now that inflation is finally dropping. FedNow expected to launch on the 1st of July, this will enable faster payment's and a surplus of dollars entering the markets if needed. again weaken's the purchasing power of the DXY - by adding more supply to the currency.
TVC:GB10YShort
by dibz1996
Why did I know that bond yields were going to fall?To obtain this information, we need to look at four things: -Fed Rates: The Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions can have a significant impact on financial markets and the overall economy. -US5Y (US 5-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 5-year Treasury bonds are an important measure to assess market expectations for short-term interest rates and investor sentiment regarding the economy. -US10Y (US 10-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 10-year Treasury bonds are also a key benchmark to evaluate investor expectations for medium-term interest rates and market risk perception. -US30Y (US 30-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 30-year Treasury bonds provide insight into investors' long-term expectations for interest rates and confidence in long-term economic stability. Monitoring these indicators can provide valuable information about the direction of interest rates, market sentiment, and the overall health of the economy. If we observe these three together, we can see that the maximum point marked with a red rectangle, the US5Y, is the only one that violated that high. This suggests that the movement in the US5Y was a manipulation (liquidity pool), as none of the other bonds violated the high. Also, the DXY (US Dollar Index) did not violate it and has already created a lower low. This indicates that we can expect the completion of this move in the DXY and a more aggressive decline in bonds.
TVC:US10YShort
by Wiiso
2
US 10Y TREASURY: supporting 3.6%The Federal Reserve decided to halt its rate increase in June, acting exactly as the market was anticipating. However, this is not the long-awaiting Fed`s pivoting point. As per Fed Chair Powell, there would most certainly be two more rate hikes until the end of this year. This would eventually mean that the benchmark rate might go as high as 5.6% by the end of this year. So, the market was left as of the end of the previous week to digest Fed's comments and decisions during the weekend. On a positive side is that the inflation in the US is slowing down, reaching 4% in May on a yearly basis. As of the end of the previous week, the 10Y Treasuries reverted by 7 points on Friday, ending the week at level of 3.7%, after reaching 3.8% during the week. Current charts are pointing to a potential for further weakening of the 10Y yields, in which sense, the level of 3.6% might be tested for one more time in the week ahead. Still, risks to the upside in the coming period should not be overlooked.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Yields are Yelling: Recession is comingIt looks like we are turning over. Coupled with gigantic short positioning of speculators on bonds (highest in history bsed on the COT Data), the chart indicates that yields will fall again. Why would they fall? Because of a flight to saftey and/or a recession. I am keeping it very simple, I just buy Bonds via ETF. I am long TLT, IEF and SHY. With that trade, I am also long USD, since my native currency is EUR. If we have a weekly close above 3,5% on the US10Y, I will exit my positions. It might also be lucrative to go short stocks now, but I wont do that too much. This might be a great trade, but I am viewing it as a set up for an even better one. We might get a great opportunity to buy stocks soon.
TVC:US10YShort
by Cyranus
2
Hawkish Fed Falls On Deaf EarsIn what was perceived as a hawkish pause by the FOMC, fell on deaf ears shortly after the statement by the Federal Reserve was released Wednesday afternoon. Initially, after investors recognized the hawkish projections, interest rates quickly raced higher and stocks sold-off quite substantially. But that sentiment didn't last long, as US 10-year futures immediately recovered, spending the rest of the session grinding higher. As a result, key trendline support that originates off the March lows remains intact and if held in the immediate future could hint of a period of stability for interest rate futures. In terms of yields, the correlating trendline is even more apparent. The falling trendline (10-year yields) extends further back, connecting the highs from last October. Both trendlines will be keenly watched the rest of the week ahead of two key central bank meetings, namely the ECB and the BOJ.
TVC:US10Y
by fxtrends
US10Y - INMINENT SELL OFF US10Y - 10 YEAR BOND WEEKLY TENDENCY ANALYSIS THE 10 Year Bond Started Buying from Weekly Demand (green) Then reached Monthly Supply that generated a new/fresh weekly Supply to start reversing the price Destiny: Weekly demand (green) Stages/Weekly tendency - Stan Weistein - STAGE I: Price consolidate Between SMA 30 @ Weekly TF - STAGE II: Price break consolidation and make highs above SMA 30 @ Weekly TF - STAGE III: Price consolidate Between SMA 30 @ Weekly TF - STAGE IV: Price break consolidation and make lows below SMA 30 @ Weekly TF
TVC:US10YShort
by imktads
9
US10Y : It is better we keep this in focusSoon it would be FOMC and a new set of dot plot. Till then, everyone is nervous. FX would likely be trading sideways. While all eyes are looking at the various FX pairs, it is this chart that can provide some clue as to what the MARKET is actually thinking. See that is found a footing first at the 100MA. For the last 3 days, it seems to move UP and found a footing at the 200MA. This week would be decisive. For further signs of what the MARKET is thinking, we look further to the COTR due this FRIDAY. And also what happens to OIL. For EURUSD, if you have a keen eye, you would have noticed why previously I mentioned 1.0655 was the LOW. Of course, it went slightly below that. The point was, it did NOT go to the POC just slightly below @ 1.0612 or 1.0525. Understanding this is crucial for what can HAPPEN next and how to trade this. Good luck. P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
TVC:US10YShort
by i_am_siew
6
Is the Worst OVER? This is the differential of 10yr vs 1yr US bond which represents long term against short term yield on sovereign debt, and those you don't know, short term bonds are used by central banks to control interest rates(amazing uh? the FED does not actually print money) therefore they do use bonds as a tool to control interest rates which then controls the S&D of capital. As you can see, we are back at a differential which is extremely low, back to energy crisis levels. However, we seem to be already at very low levels, does that mean THE WORST HAS COME? What is going to happen to the stock market? A very quick and personal thought to sum everything up as I do not consider myself an expert macroeconomist: the market is efficient, meaning that the current price on every single security is traded at all the current public information that is available and if something keeps going up, it means that expectation are in favor of it moving higher. Hope that explains what I wanted to say, Feel free to ask question, be safe!
TVC:US10Y
by EWFAlessio