Long-Term US Bond Yields Set to RiseWhat if the 2.2% to 2.9% that was once resistance becomes a new floor? Recent changes in the long-term charts hint at more #yield rises.Longby goncalo19710
German Bund 10y going towards 3%I think the current buoyancy on long duration eu core gov bonds is deceptive. rates in europe are way to low due to current macro environment, inflation still high, prices of gas and oil sets for higher levels in coming months ECB still in hawkish mode. rsi is also on the rise above its mean. probably this development will require 2 steps for the yield to reach 3% level. first stop is 2.55% / 2.6% that is a strong resistance so, some form of consolidation, then a breakout to 3% by johnconnor811
Short-Term Bond Rates VS RecessionReference chart for my research purposes. This is a study of determining the approximate start of a recession based on short-term bond rates.by PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS22109
Short-Term Bond Rates VS. Fed Funds RateReference chart for my research purposes. Studying the success of short-term bond rates to front run federal fund rate decisions (in white). Without much inspection, we can say they are fairly reliable.by PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS7
US Bond Yields Tracked Over TimeReference chart for my research purposes. US Bond Yields Tracked Over Timeby PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS2
US02Y / US10Y vs SPX - Double top on SPXGood times until late 2023. We might form a huge double top on the SPX. At the tops, before 2000 + 2008 crash, the US02Y/US10Y had started to fall. Right now it's still holding flat. We probably have a couple months before markets crash. Bull run until then.Longby brian7683114
Bond yields divergingThis chart shows that 1 year yields are diverging in trend direction away from longer term yields. I don't know what this means but it looks very odd indeed. Markets appear to be betting that deflation is on the way.by MrAndroid2
US 4 month yieldAppears the bond traders are pricing in another rate hike based on job numbers, I guess that's why we've got this strange whipsaw going, Expected core CPI is 0.4% m/m, Fed target is 2% inflation y/y, could be a big whipsaw day tomorrow instead of the pump I was expecting. Gonna sit this one out and wait until ES/NQ indicators start cycling again.by hungry_hippo665
What the fed is going to do with interest rates?Did we reach the peak? I don't think so, and even if we did, another little jump on the rate is probableby knownBeer70577116
The 2 Year Rises Thoughts on the yield curve ? Shall we stabilize from here (uninvert?) Shy is the two year rising away from the other treasuries in the face of a slowing economy? by WillNixTrading222
Rethinking Fed Intervention: Wages, Inflation, and AIIn light of the precarious global economy and numerous contributing factors, such as deglobalization, the inflationary impact of the war in Ukraine, an aging population, and an overwhelming amount of debt, the Federal Reserve's role and efficacy in the current economic climate have come into question. Drawing on Jeff Snider's work, it is increasingly evident that the Federal Reserve has not completely controlled the financial system. Despite their efforts to manipulate interest rates, external factors and market forces continuously challenge the Fed's authority. The market's current outlook suggests that the Fed may be forced to cut rates soon, indicating that its strategy of hiking rates may not have been the best approach. The central premise that the Fed should intervene to suppress inflation by keeping wages low is fundamentally flawed. Higher wages can lead to increased productivity investments, reducing the need for labor and raising living standards over time. However, hiking interest rates can stifle investment, hindering economic growth and exacerbating inequality. In recent months, inflation has decreased independently, without the direct influence of the Fed's actions, suggesting that the economy may be self-correcting. However, this natural deflationary pressure could be disrupted by external factors, such as the tightening of lending standards brought on by the mini-banking crisis. The ongoing threat of AI-driven job losses and an impending recession further complicates the situation for American workers. Jeff Snider's research at Eurodollar University offers valuable insights into the complex relationship between the Fed and inflation. Snider argues that the Fed's actions may not be the primary cause of inflation, as it has limited control over the money supply. Instead, he posits that the global financial system, specifically the eurodollar market, plays a more significant role in influencing inflation rates. As we progress into the exponential age, the rapid advancement of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) will lead to significant disruptions. However, there are potentially positive aspects to these developments. AI could revolutionize industries, streamline processes, and create new opportunities. The widespread adoption of AI can lead to increased efficiency, improved decision-making, and the automation of repetitive tasks, ultimately driving economic growth. The productivity gains associated with AI could offset some of the negative impacts of the current economic climate, such as job losses and wage stagnation. In summary, the belief that the Fed should intervene to suppress wages to tackle inflation is fundamentally misguided. Such intervention can have numerous negative consequences, including hindering investment and stifling economic growth. In contrast, allowing wages to rise can lead to increased productivity investments and improved living standards. To effectively address inflation, it is essential to consider a more comprehensive range of factors beyond the Fed's actions and recognize the importance of encouraging sustainable economic growth through policies promoting higher wages and productivity investments. Policymakers and financial analysts must carefully consider the consequences of their actions and their impact on the broader economy and society. Thanks to Michael Green, aka @profplum99, for inspiring me to write this analysis :) twitter.comby BitcoinMacro2
US02Y about to break its 1W MA50 and start a mega stock rally?The US02Y has been trading on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the past 4 weeks, closing above it on all occasions. This is a key time for (primarily) the stock market as the last time the US02Y broke and closed below its 1W MA50 (week of December 31 2018), a massive rally on stocks (which on this chart are portrayed by the S&P500 and the black trend-line) was initiated. This was at the end of the U.S. - China trade war. The 1W RSI also shows that we are closer to that break-out than ever. Will a closing below the 1W MA50 give investors finally what they've been waiting for? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE ๐, FOLLOW โ , SHARE ๐ and COMMENT โ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐Shortby TradingShot24
US 10-Yr Govt Bond Yield | Has the rate ripe for a decline?US10YR has been rising after the completion of what looks to be an expanding leading diagonal wave A and currently now may be in terminal level for the corrective wave B which could possibly reach at or below 4%. The yield is often related to the USDJPY pair and it is noticeably mimicing the pairs growth since its last drop from 129 level to current's 134. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) too was hurt because of this rising yield from 1959 last high to as low as 1818 as of this posting. We may possibly expect a shift in this market direction once the yield starts to cool down from its rise and can therefore be use as an added conviction for the Gold's bullish reversal. @marketpainterph #elliottwave #marketpainterph #XAUUSD #GOLD #US10YRby marketpainterPHUpdated 1
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part IIITime for yet another update in this uncanny inverse relationship between the SG10Y Government Bonds and the S&P500 Index ETF, SPY... Recall that the SG10Y GBond yields are in apparent inverse correlation to the SPY. When there is a trendline breakdown on the yields, the SPY is bullish; and when there is a trendline breakout, the SPY is bearish. So far, it can be observed that this relationship is intact and predictable, with the SPY forging bullishly when the SG10Y GBond yields are falling... Note that a support is approaching and this can mean either or both of two things: 1. There should be a brief stall in momentum incoming soon; and 2. The primary trend for the SG10Y GB Yields is bearish, expected to break the support and head further down until the end of April 2023. This also suggests that April should see a surge in the SPY (and S&P500), denoted by the larger green arrow. So far, now change in the yield downtrend, at least for the next week, until it reaches the expected downside target (red circle).by Auguraltrader1
Long from wave (4) to 6% zoneUS10Y yield is in completion of C of wave (4), expect to see a strong run up to 6% zone in wave (5) of circle 3 by end of this year.Longby VyazUpdated 117
Fed Fund Bond Futures CyclesChart shows the credit cycles of fed fund rates and bond futures ranging from short term expiring bonds up to 30 year bonds. S&P Nasdaq and Bitcoin are compared to historical changes in fed fund rate and bond futures. As the chart indicates when fed fund rates reach their lowest point we call this "easy street" all markets seem to steadily rise in this part of the cycle. As futures start contracting and rising off the low rates markets typically see a choppy/semi bullish price action. As the fed reaches the top of the hiking cycle markets tend to break higher highs and a melt up stage occurs. The last part of the cycle is the fed pivots rates start dropping and futures expand we have a market drop. Then we start the cycle all over again. It seems as though markets are now in the hiking cycle with futures contracting. Although markets did not see a semi/bullish choppy stage as of yet but I think that we are entering that stage now. This would be a stock pickers market with choppy bullish price action. We should have a blow off top once rates reach their highest point and of course another drop once the fed pivots. This is the historical cycle and although history does not repeat it does tend to rhyme. Past performance of course is no indication of futures results. Take this with a grain of salt because things could shift but my belief is that we will still have the blow off top once the fed stops hiking rates. Any comments are welcome but if this holds true. It is your cheat code for future cycles. Happy and safe trading. "There are many roads to success but one must be chosen"Longby JayBigTree5100
04/04 Journal: US 2Yr Tue, 04/04 ~ 2023 has printed a HH into LL @ gfib; a setup for reversal. Next wave should form LH. This should be btwn 4.361%-4.580% Us govt reversed 2/3 of QT recently (hence recent downtrend) so could see weakness in 2yr over coming months Rmb Bonds down, mkt up and vice versaby PLAYBOYP416112
04/04 Journal: As far as I can see, yield curve continues to trend down(LLs/LHs). New range established. Will treat PA accordingly. when trend reverses may be a bullish sign. should occur before market turn bullish. by PLAYBOYP416112
US Bonds (10Y, 02Y, 01Y, 06Months) all indicating lower yields!The US Federal Reserve officials, including Fed President Bullard recently spoke about the economy is still strong and the interest rates need to go higher. US Bonds (10Y, 02Y, 01Y, 06 months) are rejecting the narrative indicating lower yields going forward. Who's right? Normally, the bond prices (and hence the corresponding yields) are right!Longby Sujay_fi6
10 Year Yields Topping Out5 wave high completed at 4.25% and now showing potential to see 2.75% on wave C lower in Q2Shortby TradingMula9
That may have been the first break.Update to: All lines original. No update the analysis/charting, just a follow up to say if this thesis was in play we'd now have held the wave "B" retrace/failed new high and be heading into the corrective C leg. Which would present itself as a capitulation in bonds yields over following big price swings. Shortby holeyprofit11119
Usd 30y bond AND DXY Bearish pressure analysis30 years bond shows weakness on the chart while Dollars index is showing a green bar daily divergence, Most assets are having a green bars the 31st March will that stay the same till we all go in march Or take profit and first quarter profit taking will occurr? Most assets are above their 50% from last bottom only the Indexes are currently sitting on a +15% from last bottom This is not a trading advice DYORShortby Wakandian118