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Government bonds

US Government Bonds 2 YR Yield - Strong bearish divergenceOn the above 2-week chart the 2 year bond yield has increased an astonishing 4500% in a little over 2 years, perhaps you’ve noticed?. The chart is now indicating rising yields are a thing of the past, at least until 2026. From here on it is pauses and cuts until the real economy shows signs of recovery. This will likely be a difficult 2 years ahead for many. The bearish divergence is significant. Multiple oscillators now print bearish divergence with the rising yield as measured over a 10 month period. Look left. On this time frame with this many oscillators printing divergence, the yield corrected or appreciated significantly and with momentum. Astonishingly a majority of ideas in social media circles and even here on tradingview.com are calling for higher yields. Maybe; however the chart is saying something very different. Is it possible yields continue to increase? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww
TVC:US02YShort
by without_worries
14
US02Y : The BOND dilemma The recent dot plot is quite interesting. It has 2 important notes: a) no recession b) you got to wait longer if you are looking for cuts. This caused yield to move UP - to price in a longer Fed pause. And I think both short and long yield to continue to be HIGH. In a situation with high DEBT load, a higher rate environment is trouble. $ FX and US yield sometimes move in unison and sometime not. We just need to know when it does and when it choose not to. We are now again at the point when things tilt. I THINK that when yield goes any higher, DXY would need to move LOWER to compensate for the higher rates. As we know, DXY is now facing some resistance on its way UP. In a week or two, US might face another possible government shutdown. We must trade with caution. Till the next dot plot in 12/2023, DXY might NOT move up as fast as earlier thought. Good luck.
TVC:US02YLong
by i_am_siew
5
Yield Curve Bottom (10s minus 2s) This is called the "Steepener" trade and refers to a mean reversion in the yield curve. From current level of (-38 basis points, or -0.38%), I'm targeting a move back to 1.00%, or ~70bp, risking down to about (-45bp), or about (-13bp) downside. Yield curve steepeners seek to gain from a greater spread between short- and long-term yields-to-maturity by combining a “long” short-dated bond position with a “short” long-dated bond position, while a flattener involves sale of short-term bonds and purchase of long-term bonds. - CFA Institute
TVC:US10YLong
by jBTCkingaling
1
US 10Y : "FED vs MARKETS" |...who will win? | (Part.II)The market is waiting for one of the most important events that could give a clear direction for the coming months. Today FOMC will release interest rate decision and the main players ( TVC:DXY , TVC:GOLD , VANTAGE:SP500 and FX:EURUSD ) will suffer the consequences. Even if we cannot rule out a 25bp increase, most analysts believe that a pause may be the right choice, also because the usual press conference is not scheduled for the next FOMC meeting, so the board could take advantage of this opportunity, to explain this "temporary change in direction" to the market. So, what will happen today? No I have an objective answer to this question, unfortunately I am not a guru but a simple Trader, so today we will limit ourselves to following events. Having said that, from a technical point of view, we were lucky in March because we widely predicted this increase in yield rates from 3.30% area to a new high (wave 5 for Elliottians) in Part. I of this Analysis. On weekly chart the trend is bullish and the next technical levels are around 4.46%, 4.61% and 4.7%, but today TVC:US10Y could take any direction. US 10Y : "FED vs MARKETS" |...who will win? | (Part.I) (Click on chart below) Trade with care Like | Share | Comment
TVC:US10Y
by TheAnonymousBanker
9
US 10Y TREASURY: digesting week is over?Markets spend the previous week digesting the latest information from the FOMC meeting regarding interest rates levels in the coming period, as well as FOMC economic projections for the next two years. It all created one quite a challenging week on US financial markets, as well as for the US Treasuries. The 10Y yields reached 4.5% immediately after the Fed Chair speech after the FOMC meeting on September 20th, however, during the previous week yields continued to surge further, reaching the highest weekly level at 4.67%. This could be treated as a sort of market overreaction, as yields soon returned to the level of 4.57% where they are finishing the week. Yields continued to move within an overbought momentum for a second week in a row. This adds to the high probability that yields will further move toward the 4.5% levels which is more realistic to current economic prospectus and wording supported by the Fed. At this moment on charts, a 4.3% level could be the next target for 10Y yields, however, it might take some week or more until yields clearly reach this level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Why Gold shall keep falling? Real yields.dear fellows. we believe gold prices are likely to keep falling, because unlike many analysts say, it is not a hedge against inflation, rather against real yields. real yields have been rising, and thus, gold prices should fall. in this video idea, we show how much divergence currently exists between these charts, and why in the next couple of weeks one can expect further losses in the gold price. thank you for your attention. best regards.
TVC:US10YShort
by greenfield_br
6
US20YR - The end is in sightBonds have been selling off at unprecedented rates for unprecedented lengths. The yield curve as started the un-invert indicating the recession is less than a year out. The question remains if rates will remain "higher for longer" or if the flattening will include a swift fall in rates due to recessionary pressures, possibly leading to deflation. If Steven Van Meters and Harry Dent 's predictions are (eventually) true then a play in TLT or TMF is warranted and would lead to gains in the multiples.
TVC:US20YShort
by Merit-Ocrasse