BUFFET AINT TAKIN NO L'S : 10Y FORECASTForget the metrics forget the indicators This man is all the indicator i need and if he selling 75bn NASDAQ:AAPL stock while owning 356bn TVC:US10Y why deny it of course NASDAQ:AAPL overvalued along with the rest of tech but recession is recession babyLongby Bekiumuzi_Dube113
Inverted Yield curve re-inversion vs SPYSince 1990, there has been a 4/4 probability of market declines and recession proceeding the re-inversion. For data not shown on Tradingview, there were 2 outliers in 1980 and 1982 where the market nearly bottomed as it re-inverted (fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y) However, the last two re-inversions still had the market increase for the proceeding 24 weeks (5-6 months). This is very important information. If this cycle plays out like the last 2, the markets might still crawl higher until Jan 2025.Longby SolenyaResearch2
Yield curve re-inversion vs GoldAs the yield curve re-inverts, it presents an opportunity for safe haven assets like gold to outperform. The only outlier was 1980 and 1982 when gold had already increased 800% in the few years prior due to Fed Volcker's era of runaway inflation. Evidenced by the inverted yield curve's track record of predicting recessions, the Sahm Rule was also triggered on Friday's unemployment data. Since 1950, the Sahm Rule was able to predict a recession 10/11 times (91% chance). Every time it did predict a recession, it did so within 4 months. Coincidentally, This time frame fits quite nicely with the 24 weeks of upside proceeding the re-inversion before the start of a bear marketby SolenyaResearch1
US10Y Government Bond Yield Could Test 3.9% SoonUS10Y Government Bond Yield Could Test 3.9% Soon The price is showing the completion of a complex pattern that could push the price further. A very strong resistance area over the previous weeks is found near 4.48% dating back almost 1 month Also considering overall market expectations, US CPI data on Thursday could help this bearish move. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Shortby KlejdiCuniUpdated 3322
Bearish Yields Can Send USDollar Lower10Y US Yields are falling impulsively within wave C as expected after we noticed sharp leg down into wave A, followed by a corrective rally in wave B. So, there can be now space even down to the former wave 4 area at 3.25%. If we consider a positive correlation with USdollar Index – DXY, then USD can face more weakness. Is DXY trying to break bearish triangle?Shortby ew-forecast3
Yield CurveThe 2/10 treasury yield spread is quickly flattening and an inversion could happen soon. All of the previous yield curve inversions are associated with memorable market sell-offs and recessions. I believe the ripple effect of the ongoing financial and economic sanctions against Russia will end up being the catalyst for the next meltdown. The market conditions have been favorable to a disaster by many measurements for some time now. Again, there are many unknown cross-currents beginning to work their way into the global economy. On top of that, the FED is raising interest rates in less than two weeks.by The_Arena_TraderUpdated 111142
Market topping or not stopping?? Little bit of Macro1. Stocks are fundamentally overvalued. 2. The macro (yield curve and unemployment rate) I'm monitoring is at its peak/low and could be at potential turning point. 3. We need technical analysis to enter this trade and time the short if there is any at all. These are some extremes I'm looking for that can either enrich you if you're right or make you poor if you lack risk managment skills. I'm talking Michael Burry 2008 trade if history repeats itself. Shortby Robert077Updated 7
Daily EU UpdatesHello Traders! Welcome to a new trading month. Let's get to work and safe trading.10:53by ForensicForex0
Yield Curve touched the 0% - Will it continue up?US10Y-US02Y = Yield Curve. The Yield Curve has predicted each of the previous market crashes. The markets are crashing now but is it really the beginning of a bigger market crash? OR are the markets just very volatile and have more last push up? Maybe yes for the US Markets. In 2000, the market peak was when the yield curve was still negative (-0.3%). In 2007, the market peak was when the yield curve was at 0.5%. Is 2024 more like 2000 or 2007?Longby brian76834
Long live "The Widowmaker" trade in JGB'sHistorically, shorting the 10 year JGB was called the widowmaker trade. Yields have trended down for decades in Japan and many a brave soul has tried to call the bottom in yields. Surely the recent move from 1.10% to .72% added a few more souls to the list. RIPShortby hodgson42k0
US 10Y TREASURY: September?During the previous week the 10Y US benchmark rates reached the lowest weekly level at 3.78%, and moved down from the support line at 4.2%. There are two major reasons for such a strong drop in Treasury yields. The first was on Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell noted a potential for a rate cut in the future period, which market perceives to be September`s FOMC meeting, and the second reason was surprisingly weak jobs data posted on Friday. The posted non-farm payrolls for July were significantly weaker from market expectations, reaching 114K, from 175K expected by the market. At the same time, the unemployment rate reached 4.3%, again higher from 4.1% estimated by the market. There is currently fear among investors that the US might slip into recession, however, there are also analysts who are noting that weak figures might be due to seasonal effects. Surprisingly weak jobs data led investors to increase odds for more than one rate cut during the course of this year. Also, there is currently 58% chances by market expectations, that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points. After such a strong move in Treasury yields, it could be expected that the market will slowly digest the Friday`s data and adjust positions accordingly. In this sense, there is a probability that the yields would revert a bit to the upside, at least to the level of 3.9%. However, at this point levels around 4.0% are questionable. by XBTFX16
Strategic Update: Preparing for the Bund's Takeoff Amidst EuropeI believe it's time for the Bund to take off from here with all this context from the entire European Union. I think the moment we see the Bund again at 141, with a TP zone around 135. The SL zone is again around 1/1 or 1.4, so we leave it room to breathe without putting too much pressure on it. Good luck to everyone, and let's start climbing from here urgently. Longby FonF0nUpdated 113
getting close to yield un-inversion 2Y is warming up for un-inversion , looks like more pain to come ahead for SPXby hamedelganyUpdated 112
US10Y-US02Y1Y I see an inverted head and shoulders pattern with RSI in a bullish trend. 5Y RSI is in a bullish trend here as well. Prediction: This inversion has reached a bottom and is going to start moving up.Longby Kyo026Updated 2
10 Yr Yield Roadmap Oct 2023This should have profound implications if correct. On the upside, upper bound at 5.75% on the downside 2.5%by NeonUpdated 12
2 Year yields are weakeningWhich often signals a incoming recession. The market leads the #FED who always raise and lower rates too late. We have #Unemployment starting to tick up Tight financial conditions, delinquencies on the rise. So make hay over the next few months in memestocks, coins, bitcoin, alts, NVDA and so on. But don't be left holding the hot potato when the music stops playings. #Macro #Meltup #NVDA #Nasdaq #Stocks #Bitcoin #Altcoins #Ethereum #PulsechainLongby BallaJiUpdated 5510
US10Y - 7 Days Of Hell! When Will It End!?The FED has maintained their stance with 5.50% whilst BOE and several others have either lowered interest rates by .25 basis points or raised it. Due to this, we have seen turmoil in the yield markets, -11%* decline within 7 days with more potential pain to come. Current price action is trading below 2024's lows which could be a factor, if short-term trading to capture relief rallies back up to PD arrays. 3.783 is the next draw on liquidity. Set a alert! Monthly/Weekly buyside imbalance sellside inefficiency + order block located @ 3.644 - 3.535 is the next potential draw over the monthly basisShort11:11by LegendSince2
US 10 year Bond BoxesAll horizontal rectangles edges are Levels I will be watching for potential support and resistance action. Wouldn't say I am overly confident in the potential colored path of the boxes (red, cyan, yellow, pink and blue), but will provide step by step updates if anything significant pops up in a discretionary perspective. The project should or might become more relevant with it's levels and zones, in time, if we get to see specific price action at the levels to indicate at least a slight sign of relevance. First one to look out for is potential support at the red zone. Next to watch out for is a bullish toned cyan box perspective. If these fail, all bets are not off, we just let the price action dictate how the market feels inside the boxes and what it does when it escapes one. Thinking outside of the box there might be another potential aspect for this project. What if the information is encrypted so that we don't get to see in advance what can really actually happen? How can we crack the code and why? Take a deep breath. Get A Touch of Zen. Look at the design without having thoughts about it and see what pops up and why and how. I like the O icon and the nen text location. Could be wrong though. This one is similar to the EURUSD project. Linked.by nenUpdated 13
UK Bond Steps and ForcesThis is my perspective on the forces that might apply on the UK 10Y Gilt. It can climb along the red rectangles to fall down to the big green or if the first red rejects it or the bottom arc attracts it, we might see support in that area. The vertical green is a special one where unusual or special circumstances and price action might occur, either higher volatility or sudden shift in sentiment. Treat everything as potential support and resistance but also stepping stones in case the market follows the main scenario highlighted with the purple path arrow. The second one with checkmarks is secondary and depends on the activity at the first vertical long red in case we reach it. Arcs are special forces of attraction and or repulsion. They can be broken depending on the momentum or type of activity. If the price slows down near them it can just slide through them, but if candlestick patterns of potential reversals and inflections are formed, I will take a good look at them when deciding how and if to approach the market or adjust/manage previously opened positions.Uby nenUpdated 18
2 Year US Treasury Yield going down2 Year US Treasury Yield going down. 2 Year US Treasury Yield is always the first one to go down, few months before the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. Hold 2 Year US Treasuries to capitalize on it. (Yield down, Bond price up)by T-r-XUpdated 229
Yield Curve Disinversion is ImminentOnly a matter of time, maybe days away at current ratesby GoodTexture3
How I Stay Organized and Efficient During My Morning RoutineGood morning, traders! ☕️ As I gear up for the trading session, here's how I stay organized and efficient during my morning routine: 1️⃣ Plan the night before: I prep my trading station, review market news, and outline my trading goals before calling it a day. This sets a clear roadmap for the morning and reduces decision fatigue. 2️⃣ Start with a ritual: I kick-start my morning with a ritual that helps me get focused and energized. Whether it's meditation, visualization, exercise, or enjoying a cup of coffee/tea, this routine primes my mind for the challenges ahead. 3️⃣ Time blocking: I allocate specific time slots for key activities like fundamental and sentiment research, top down technical analysis, bias matrices, reviewing trade setups, and analyzing charts. This helps me stay on track, avoid distractions, and make the most of my pre-session hours. 4️⃣ Utilize checklists: I have a checklist that outlines essential tasks like reviewing economic data, assessing overnight market developments, rebalancing portfolio and updating my watchlist. If I have anything specific I need to focus on that session, I will take note too. This ensures I don't miss important steps or actions/tasks. 5️⃣ Stay organized digitally: I leverage technology tools like trading journals, note-taking apps, and calendar reminders to keep track of my trade ideas, record observations, and stay organized. This digital approach streamlines my workflow most of the time. 6️⃣ Focus on self-care: Prioritizing self-care is vital for optimal performance. I make sure to nourish my body with a healthy breakfast, hydrate adequately (especially important during the extended heat waves I experience where I live), and take short breaks to relax and recharge. A balanced mindset is key to success. Finding an efficient morning routine is a personal journey. Experiment with different strategies, listen to your needs, and fine-tune your routine over time. Start your day right and set yourself up for trading success! 📈✨ Educationby AlexSoro117