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Government bonds

US 10Y yield chart - key levels to watch ahead of dataWe have a big week of data US inflation figures are released tomorrow and are likely to show a continued disinflationary trend, with the headline rate falling to 4.1%. This will help the Fed remain on pause for the Wednesday rate decision. The major level to watch to our mind is the tentative downtrend drawn from the October 2022 high. This comes in at 3.88. The market has been sidelined for months but is building a potential bullish consolidation pattern and that idea will be reinforced should a close above the 3.88 downtrend be seen.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
US 10Y TREASURY: waiting FOMC meeting As the FOMC meeting is approaching and more data on inflation pressures and the economy are released, the Treasury bond market is increasing its volatility. Current question which is in the spotlight is whether the Fed will hike rates by 25 bps or it will skip June and leave rate increase for July`s meeting. Current market consensus is that rates will remain at the same level during June. Although 10Y Treasuries started the week around 3.6%, the yield was soon increased to the level of 3.8%. It was sort of testing this level for one more time, if it can hold. Still, yields are ending the week around 3.7%. The week ahead might bring some volatility back to the markets, in case the Fed still increases rates, contrary market expectations. Certainly, inflation figures will be posted a day before the FOMC meeting, and any surprises on this side might also bring some volatility back. As per current charts, since 3.8% was tested, the market could easily slip back to the level of 3.6%, which might occur during the week ahead. At this moment, there is no indication that 3.8% might be breached to the upside. However, it should be noted, that a potential breach of 3.8% level to the upside, would certainly lead the market to the level of 4% yield for 10Y Treasuries.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y: Prepare for a long term sell.The US10Y continues to trade inside the long term Channel Down since the October 21st High and has now formed the same peak formation as then. With the 1D time frame neutral (RSI = 45.126, MACD = 58.593, MACD = -0.280), the conditions have emerged for a new long term sell. If the previous -20% decline is repeated, then target the bottom of the Channel Down on a TP = 3.100. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
7
US 10Y TREASURY: anticipating 25 bps hikeDebt-ceiling saga is finally over, which means that the US will not enter into technical default, which is something that the majority of market participants anticipated. It had some minor impact on the US 10Y yields. However, old topics are currently preoccupying the market, which is the question whether the Fed will increase interest rates at June`s FOMC meeting or it might be at July`s meeting. Anyway, anticipation of a further 25 bps hike is high, so the market reacted in line with its sentiment during the previous week. The 10Y Treasury yields started the previous week below 3.8%. It was quite evident on the charts that 3.8% was a peaking level at this round. Lowest weekly level was 3.57% on Thursday, however, Friday`s better than expected jobs figures pushed yields back to the level of 3.7%. This comes in line with anticipations of another 25 bps hike in June/Julys FOMC sessions. As per current charts, there is some probability that markets would push yields back to the 3.8% level, however, there is no indication, neither in fundamentals, that the yields might go higher from this level. On the opposite side, there is a lower probability that 3.5% might be tested again. However, it should be noted for the future period, that potential further rate hikes by the Fed, above currently expected 25 bps, might drive 10Y yields toward the 4%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: peaking at 3.8%? During the previous week the US Treasury yields were under influence of both debt-ceiling ongoing negotiations without an actual deal, and posted PCE data. As officially released data on PCE shows higher than expected monthly output of 0.4%, it heated expectations of market participants that the Fed will most probably continue with further rate increases of 25 bps in June`s meeting. Reaction of the market was an increase of Treasury yields, where 10Y bond yields increased from 3.6% up to 3.8%. Insecurity is still high on the market, so it might be expected that bond yields will stay elevated during the following period of time. At this moment, there is no indication on charts that yields might go higher, reaching 4%, so at this moment there is a sort of peak at level of 3.8%. Still, if the Fed continues to increase interest rates, a 4% might easily become a target of 10Y bonds. For the week ahead the most important to watch is potential debt-negotiation deal, as the US might enter into default as soon as June 5th, as per Treasury Secretary Yellen. Hopefully, this will not be the end scenario. If deal is accomplished, the yields might revert a bit to the downside, probably to the level of 3.6%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y Approaching the top of the Channel Down. Sell opportunity.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the top of the (blue) Channel Down pattern, which was our bullish target on our last trade ten days ago (see chart below): Despite not having hit it yet, we decide to close this long trade as we see more value in starting a sell-near-highs approach now. There is also a diverging Channel Down (dotted lines) involved and the maximum technical top that the price can make without breaking any pattern is the top of the Rectangle (4.090% Resistance). That will be our 2nd and final sell entry. Pay attention to the 1D RSI also, which is approaching the overbought barrier (70.00) just like on February 21. Our bearish strategy targets the May 04 Low at 3.300%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
11
British yields above resistance levelVery simple chart showing parallel channel of the UK bond market trending down since the 1980s with the yellow line at 4.2% seeming to be a key line of historic resistance. Back in October 2022 the UK bond market had a severe problem which ultimately led to the resignation of the Prime Minister Liz Truss. The issue was causing pension funds to experience extreme financial stress. The Bank of England had to come to the rescue and buy Gilts. The level we are at now on this 10 year yield is nearly the same.
TVC:GB10Y
by MrAndroid