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Government bonds

SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VI - Bear for EquitiesAs mentioned in previous heads up over the last weeks, it had finally happened (as expected) that the SG10Y GB yield rates break out of trend line resistance. And from previous occurrences, this is a very reliable inverse leading indicator of the SPY (and other related equity indexes); meaning that the SPY should be tanking downwards within the next week or so. Enough said, pattern recognition checked, trend correlation checked, projection based on hypothesis checked... now the rubber hits the road. Not expecting any deviation from the correlation, so is very likely that equities should be tipping over in a bearish slide. HEADS UP!
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
GB10Y - pensions at risk?Here show similarities of 2007, before the 2008 financial collapse! both show reaching their peak, pulling back then heading towards retracement level's. 2007 couldn't hold the 0.702 retracement, bond price reversed and took out the low's. 23/05/23. today we are heading for the same scenario! will be waiting to see if we can break and hold the 0.702, if not then I would expect the same pattern to play out. this would weaken pension's, the value of the pound and cause liquidity issues. BOE already said back in October 2022, that they would step in and double there purchase's, but this would be the last time. expecting more strength in the pound on the shorter timeframe, if we see another leg down from the DXY (US Dollar). Debt ceiling coming up June 1st. i think its likely they'll raise the debt ceiling. this will create more liquidity, plus inflation will start to creep up. may see more banking liquidity issue's banks balance sheets will be heavily leveraged in bonds/gilts. Uk may need to keep raising rate's against the falling pound. united states will have extra liquidity to bail out banks. (if they raise the debt ceiling) this is when i would expect stag-flation to occur, combination of pausing rate hike's, whilst also creating extra liquidity to support failing banks. interesting times ahead, will be looking at these resistance level's as an indication on what come's next for the pound!
TVC:GB10Y
by dibz1996
US 10Y TREASURY: 4% is far away?The US Treasury yields were under influence of Fed Chair Powell's speech in Washington as well as ongoing negotiations regarding the debt-ceiling. Although Powell did not mention anything new in his speech over a potential monetary move in the future period, still, Lorie Logan, a Dallas Fed President, made a comment as of the end of the previous week, that monetary data are still not justifying the halt in Fed's rate hike. Market reaction was imminent, so the 10Y Treasuries surged by 7 bps to the highest weekly level at 3.72%. Still, yields are finishing the week around short-term support at $3.6%. As long as insecurity in markets holds, and further rate hikes are not clearly communicated with the market, it could be expected for 10Y Treasuries to be elevated. The major resistance line at 3.6% has been breached on Friday. This means that the market will start week ahead by testing this level for some time. On the other hand, news on the debt-ceiling negotiations would certainly have an impact on Treasury yields, which might bring some volatility back on the market. On the opposite side, a clear break of 3.6% resistance has opened a way for a 4% next resistance. It should not be expected for this level to be reached in the week ahead, but in case that Fed continues with rate increases, a 4% might easily become the next target.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Towards 10.650%!?-If we take into account that we form a nice head and shoulders at the bottom of the pandemic, prices would certainly seek the region of 10.65% of the US government's 10-year bond. -If we consider the neck region as the starting point for tracing the fate of prices, we will have this bizarre thing happening, an explosion in "treasurys". -On the weekly chart we have a pivot high that wants to form and is targeting the most recent top at 4.350%. -Going down a little further, on the daily chart, the pivot that had formed on 05/12/2023 is about to reach the golden region of the FIB at 3,780%. -We have the long average right below, and it could serve as support. We have Congress about to approve the new limit for the spending ceiling and if it is approved, it may be necessary to raise interest rates again. -We have an unknown soon, which is: Will interest rates explode? -Do your analyzes and good deals. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other graphic reviews!
TVC:US10Y
by MacD_Bollinger
2
US10Y Still room to rise but be ready to short the top.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) hit the downside target on our previous signal (see idea below) and is currently rising again: Being above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), we see the potential of a diverging Channel Down to emerge and establish itself (dotted lines). The completion of a 1D Death Cross, the first since August 25 2021, ensures that the long-term trend remains bearish. As a result, buy the rest of this bullish Lower High leg and be ready to sell again at the top of the original (blue) Channel Down. If the 1D RSI gets rejected on the dashed Lower Highs trend-line, consider the potential of an early top and sell again. Our target for end of July is 3.150%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
British bonds smell of fried! Something bad is happening in the state market. bonds of England - these papers have been actively sold over the past month. During this period, the yield on them increased by as much as 1%. Because of this, we see how the market is already beginning to arrive in some kind of stress: the dollar index is growing, other bonds of developed countries are also being sold, because of this stress, gold also gets it, as central banks are forced to sell off reserves in order to support the nat. currencies and the bond market. Something suggests that panic-sells in risky assets may begin on the market very soon. This will hit equities hard and likely hit crypto hard too. Friends, it’s worth tying up with longs for now, and it’s even better to fix them in profit out of harm’s way. Clouds are gathering over risky assets, prepare umbrellas and shorts, a storm is coming!
TVC:GB10YShort
by Dorado_Crypto
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VConditions appear to be shifting really quickly... just a few days ago, it appeared that the SG10Y Govt Bond was going to break a low and go further down, sending the correlated S&P500 (and other indexes rallying up. BUT, it brooke down and recovered very quickly. NOW, it appears to be ready to break UP and out of the downtrend line. This has happened before, including the indication of the MACD (shown here this time), where there is also a bullish divergence and just now, a crossover of the MACD on the Signal line. Therefore, expecting a repeat of early Feb 2023, and IF this is the case, then the corresponding SPY action would be a lower high and a breakdown (red dotted arrow projects the SPY (blue line). Watch the next 5 trading days... critical clues will be revealed. Btw, if this scenario is played out, then the USD should concomitantly be bearish, Gold bullish, Crude bearish for the most part, etc. Also... for those who are like keen to get the SG bonds, the yields should be rising, not dropping, so no need to rush. Have a good idea of what might happen (don't listen wholesale to those who want to get you to buy stuff), then make a plan to have that idea happen. So far, five parts to this story, and so far it is holding the correlation as expected.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
Correlation Analysis of US G 10 Yr Bonds Vs BitcoinThis intermarket analysis really helps to understand how money is flowing. I use it consistently throughout my entire process. Here we’re comparing the charts of US Government 10 Year Bonds (Blue line) and Bitcoin (orange line). As you can see, the two move different directions, you can see the US G 10 Yr Bonds broke and retested the rising MYL trendline also Bitcoin broke and retested the MYL descending trendline and if rates are falling. So the ratio between the two is a good indication of where the market thinks rates are going.
TVC:US10YLong
by AJCRYPTO25
US 10Y TREASURY: a “dead cross”A $31.4 trillion debt ceiling was in the spotlight of the markets during the previous week. The possibility of the US debt default would certainly have large repercussions not only to the US but also would be felt through the rest of the world. As per currently available official data, the estimation is that the US might default on its debt in June or July, the latest, which is labeled by the government as “significant risk”. As for the Fed rate hikes, the majority of investors are of the opinion that the Fed should stop with further rate increases, as it might hurt the economy more than previously estimated. The US 10Y T-notes ended the week at level of 3.463% as investors were digesting the potential outlook of the US economy after recent developments and rate hikes. The University of Michigan report has been released during the previous week, providing expectations on inflation for the next 5 years. The majority of participants in the survey answered 3.2%, which is higher from the 3.0% estimated during the previous month. Current sentiment on US10Y T-notes is neutral, as RSI moves around level of 50. The moving average of 50 days just made a cross with its MA200 counterpart from the upside, forming a so-called “dead cross”. In technical analysis this indicates the high potential for a downside in the future period. However, for the week ahead, charts are pointing to some potential for the 10Y T-notes to reach 3.30%, but would most certainly oscillate around $3.40 during the week.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y - Watch out for speculative short coveringKey Takeaways: - Large speculators are the most short they have been since 2018 (around -730k contracts) - In 2018 they started to short cover (or buy back their short position) and US10-Year Treasury Yield started to drop. - This could happen again so need to watch out. Data: US10Y : US10-Year Treasury Yield COT:043602_F_NCP_L-COT:043602_F_NCP_S : US10-Year Treasury Note Net Futures Positioning by Large Speculators. From CME's Commitment of Traders Report. Calculated by taking total long position minus total short position.
TVC:US10YShort
by joshdawe21