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Government bonds

US10y-US02y Yield Curve Reversion - Watch StocksUS 10y and 2y yield curve has reverted (i.e. is no longer inverted) and historically this has been a bearish signal for stocks in the months ahead. Whilst stocks have continued to gain for a few weeks to months, ultimately there seems to always have had a precipitous drop to follow. Keep a solid cash position and potentially look to hedge longs moving into October/November and onwards. These drops have presented FANTASTIC buying opportunities, but ultimately you can only buy if you have dry powder set aside.
TVC:US10Y
by Profit_Link
Lower Rates Expected by 9/27/24Ahead of the Fed meeting Wednesday the market was pretty much 50/50 split on whether the fed funds rate would be cut by 25 or 50 basis points. After the 50bps announcement the counter intuitive move occurred, which was rates began rising, but this should have been a surprise. This was as straight forward "buy the rumor, sell the news" gets. Today however it appears the rates attempted to rally past 3.76% but failed. 3.76% happens to be the 50% fib level from the recent highs to lows and now we'll look to see the 10-yr break below 3.70 for a sustained move lower. Marking this as a "Long Investment Idea" since lower rates imply higher bond prices, don't be fooled by the rate chart.
TVC:US10YLong
by jpoma13
Adapting Your Strategies to Stay AheadThis is how I embrace market adaptability and recognize (and navigate) changing market conditions! As a trader, I've learned the art of adapting my strategies to stay ahead and here's how: 1️⃣ Market Awareness: I continuously monitor market trends, economic data, and global events to stay informed. Recognizing shifts in volatility, sentiment, and liquidity (if not trading FX) is key to adapting. I make sure to have a baseline short and mid term outlook, so I can spot deviations which could signal changes (particularly useful when it comes to monetary policy shifts). 2️⃣ Flexible Strategies: I avoid rigid approaches and embrace flexibility in my trading strategies. Being open to different approaches within my methodology helps me capitalize on diverse market environments. I have an arsenal full of trading weapons... and I am not afraid to use any of them. 3️⃣ Indicators & Patterns: I incorporate a wide range of technical indicators and chart patterns to gauge changing market dynamics and correlate what I see to fundamentals and sentiment. This allows me to spot emerging trends and reversals. 4️⃣ Review & Adapt: I regularly review my trading performance and identify periods of success and struggle. Adapting my strategies based on these insights enhances my edge. 5️⃣ Patience & Observation: During market shifts, I exercise patience and observe new patterns before making significant adjustments. Rushing to adapt can lead to hasty decisions. I follow the market and ride its waves so I like to see certain signs/clues before making decisions about changing a longer standing bias. 6️⃣ Risk Management: In times of uncertainty, I prioritize risk management to protect my capital. Adjusting position sizes and setting appropriate damage control or stop-loss levels is crucial. 7️⃣ Learn from Peers: Engaging with the trading community and learning from experienced traders enriches my understanding of market adaptations. Collaboration is valuable. You still have to separate the value from the mainstream influencer-regurgitated cliches, but hey, it's still free advice. Embracing adaptability has been a game-changer in my trading journey. Recognizing changing markets and adjusting my strategies accordingly enhances my ability to thrive in any conditions.I always tell my students that we can all make money no matter what the environment is like as long as you can adapt to it. 🚀📊✨
FX:BUNDEducation
by AlexSoro
1
Chart Analysis of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Based on current chart patterns and Elliott Wave Theory, it appears we are in Wave 4 of a higher-degree cycle for the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields. Wave 4 is typically a corrective phase following a strong trending Wave 3, suggesting that this phase may involve consolidation or retracement. Key Levels to Watch: 38% Retracement (Lower Orange Line) : If yields bottom near this retracement level, it may indicate a potential support zone where Wave 4 could complete its correction. 61% Retracement (Upper Orange Line) : Should the yields find support at the 38% level, they might subsequently target the 61% retracement level of Wave 3, suggesting a potential upward move. Market Implications : If the bond yields continue to rise and reach these retracement levels, we could witness a significant bearish trend in the broader market. However, it's crucial to recognize that market conditions are dynamic and can affect these projections. Disclaimer : This analysis is based on the current technical chart patterns and Elliott Wave Theory. Market conditions are subject to change, and unforeseen factors can impact outcomes. Therefore, it's essential to stay informed and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Regards
TVC:US10Y
by imkhushal
1
US 10Y TREASURY: Fed on the moveThe US inflation data, posted during the previous week, clearly showed that the inflation in the US is slowing down. It is still above the Fed's target of 2%, but it opens the space for the Fed to cut interest rates. Markets are almost sure that the first rate cut will occur at September's FOMC meeting, which is scheduled for September 19th. The market positioned itself in accordance with expectations during the previous weeks, by decreasing yields on the US Treasury bonds. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark reached the lowest weekly level at 3,61%, still ending the week at 3,65%. Considering that the FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, some increased volatility could be highly expected. The 10Y Treasury yields might oscillate a bit up to the levels around 3,70%, looking for an equilibrium. Fed Chair Powell’s rhetoric after the meeting would shape the investors sentiment, in which sense, some higher movements might be possible. Still, on a long-run, the interest rates and yields would certainly trade with a clear downtrend.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
30-year US10Y trend vs. 10-year Bitcoin trend divergence vs. disparity o1-mini: **Understanding Divergence vs. Disparity** - **Divergence** refers to a situation where two related data sets, indicators, or trends move in opposite directions. In financial markets, divergence often signals a potential reversal or shift in the prevailing trend. For example, if the price of an asset is rising while a momentum indicator is falling, this negative divergence may indicate weakening upward momentum and a possible downturn. - **Disparity**, on the other hand, denotes a difference or inequality between two quantities. In finance, it can refer to discrepancies in valuations, performance metrics, or other financial indicators between assets or markets. Disparity highlights the gap between two elements without necessarily implying any future convergence or reversal. **30-Year US 10-Year Treasury Yield Trend vs. 10-Year Bitcoin Trend** - **30-Year US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) Trend**: - Over the past three decades, the US10Y has experienced a long-term downtrend. From the early 1990s to around 2020, yields declined from levels above 7% to historic lows below 1%, particularly during times of economic stress like the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. - This downward trend reflects factors such as monetary policy easing, lower inflation expectations, and increased demand for safe-haven assets. - However, starting around late 2020 and into 2023, yields began to rise again due to factors like economic recovery, rising inflation, and shifts in Federal Reserve policies. - **10-Year Bitcoin Trend**: - Since its inception in 2009 and especially over the past decade, Bitcoin has exhibited a remarkable uptrend, despite significant volatility. - From being virtually worthless in its early years, Bitcoin reached all-time highs above $60,000 in 2021. - The cryptocurrency's growth has been driven by increased adoption, institutional interest, and its perceived value as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. - Volatility remains high, with notable corrections exceeding 50%, but the long-term trajectory has been upward. **Analyzing Divergence and Disparity Between US10Y and Bitcoin Trends** - **Divergence**: - The inverse movements of US10Y yields and Bitcoin prices over their respective periods can be seen as a divergence in investor behavior and sentiment. - Traditionally, declining yields on government bonds like the US10Y suggest a risk-averse market seeking safety, which lowers yields due to higher bond prices. - Conversely, the rise of Bitcoin signifies a growing appetite for alternative investments, often perceived as riskier but offering higher potential returns. - This divergence highlights a shift in how investors allocate capital between traditional safe assets and emerging alternative assets. - **Disparity**: - There's a disparity in the performance and volatility profiles of the US10Y and Bitcoin. - The US10Y is a benchmark for low-risk, fixed-income investments with relatively stable returns, influenced by macroeconomic factors and monetary policy. - Bitcoin represents a high-risk, high-reward asset class with extreme volatility and speculative investment behavior. - The disparity extends to their roles in a portfolio: bonds are typically used for capital preservation and income, while Bitcoin is considered for growth and diversification. **Implications for Investors** - **Portfolio Diversification**: - The divergence between bond yields and cryptocurrency performance suggests that including both asset classes can enhance diversification. - Bonds may provide stability and income, while Bitcoin could offer growth potential and a hedge against certain systemic risks. - **Risk Management**: - Understanding the disparity in risk profiles is crucial. The low volatility of US10Y bonds contrasts sharply with Bitcoin's high volatility. - Investors should assess their risk tolerance and investment horizon when allocating assets between these categories. - **Market Signals**: - Diverging trends can signal shifts in macroeconomic conditions. Rising bond yields may indicate inflation expectations and tightening monetary policy. - Bitcoin's performance could reflect market sentiment toward digital assets and technology adoption. **Conclusion** The concepts of divergence and disparity help in analyzing and interpreting the differing trends of the US10Y yields and Bitcoin over their respective periods. While divergence highlights the opposite movements and potential shifts in investor behavior, disparity emphasizes the fundamental differences in their investment characteristics. Understanding both can aid investors in making informed decisions and constructing resilient portfolios amid evolving financial landscapes.
TVC:US10Y
by Surfwave
Bond markets pricing in a possible recessionary scenarioSpread between US 2 year yield and Fed Funds Rate is one of the key indidcators to watch out for the state of the economy. Fed Funds Rate is an overnight rate. Historically, before any recessionary scenarios the spread was seen moving to negative territory, during Middle East Crisis in 1989/1990, dotcom crisis in 2000/2001 and Credit crisis in 2008. Currently, the spread is at -1.67%, second lowest in history only to 2008 Credit crisis which was at -1.76%. This leads to a strong conclusion that the interest rate markets are possibly pricing in a recessionary scenario. Interesting times ahead...
TVC:US02Y
by scorpiomanoj
2
US 10Y TREASURY: NFP implied yieldsFriday was the major trading day on the US financial markets, after the release of jobs data for August. The US nonfarm payrolls came weaker than market was expecting, which implied market higher volatility. The nonfarm payrolls came at the level of 142K, while the market was expecting to see 160K for the month. On the positive side was a modest decrease in the unemployment rate from 4,3% to 4,2% in August. Such weak figures were an indication to markets that the Fed might need to cut interest rates at least by 50 bps in order to support the economy, which might be potentially entering into a recession. Of course, the US economy is still holding in a relatively good shape, where relatively weaker jobs figures should be taken with a reserve. The 10Y Treasury benchmark was pushed to the downside, reaching the lowest weekly level at 3,65% at one occasion at Friday's trading session. Still, yields are ending the week at the level of 3,71%. The week ahead will be used by investors to digest the latest jobs data and reassess their positions accordingly. In this sense some adjustments in yields are possible to the upside. The level of 3,8% might be tested for one more time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX