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Hidden Bearish Divergence on Yield US Treasury 10YrWhile RSI 14 reach above 70, TVC:US10Y formed a lower low compare to when the last time RSI 14 were above 70 (Apr'24). They say this is a hidden Divergence, a Bearish one. I predict the Yield will fall to 3.6% but still within the Bullish Continuation pattern in the medium to long term. Meaning that the strengthening price of US Bond is temporary before they fall and push the yield higher to the level of Global Financial Crisis in 2008.
TVC:US10YLong
by mmdcharts
1
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Update The UK 10-year gilt yield is showing a potentially interesting setup on the chart! A symmetrical triangle pattern appears to be forming, and a weekly close above 4.75% could confirm this formation, with a longer-term target up to 6.60%. Recently, yields surged to 4.51%, the highest in a year, following reactions to the Labour government’s first budget. Key highlights include: • 📈 £28 billion in increased borrowing per year across parliament. • 💰 £297 billion in bond sales this fiscal year—second largest on record. • 💸 £40 billion in new tax hikes, aimed at boosting funding for public services and covering a £22 billion fiscal gap. The Office for Budget Responsibility adjusted GDP growth forecasts up to 1.1% for this year but revised down to 2% for 2025. Meanwhile, inflation is projected to average 2.5% in 2024, peaking at 2.6% in 2025, then easing to 2% by 2029. The Bank of England is still expected to cut rates by 25bps this week, though traders now anticipate three quarter-point cuts by 2025's end (down from five last week). Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:GB10Y
by The_STA
US 10Y TREASURY: FOMC rate decisionSurprisingly low Non-farm payrolls of 12K surprised markets and shaped investors sentiment as of the end of the previous week. The US Treasury yields were heading higher testing shortly the level of 4,3%, however, Friday's noisy NFPs pushed the yields toward the 4,36% level. The week ahead will be the crucial one of the further courses of the 10Y Treasury benchmark. On November 7th, the FOMC will decide on the further course of US interest rates. It is to be seen how Fed currently perceives the US jobs market, and whether such a low jobs level will have an impact on Fed decision. At this moment, the market is expecting to see a further 25 bps cut. At this moment, there is an indication of a possibility that the market will test the level of 4,4%, before the yields ease a bit back. Still, due to US Presidential elections and the FOMC rate decision, this might be another highly volatile week on US financial markets.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
US 10Y TREASURY: PCE and NFP aheadDuring the previous week there has been a lack of new macro data which would point to markets the course of inflation and potential next Feds move regarding interest rates. Still, the markets are watching closely any statements from Fed officials, and trying to position according to the current sentiment. Considering that statements from Feds officials were pretty cautious regarding the future rate cuts, the markets reacted by increasing yields. The US 10Y benchmark started the week by testing the 4,0% level, and moved to the highest weekly level at 4,25%. Yields eased on Friday, ending the week at 4,18%. The week ahead is bringing a release of new PCE and Non-farm payrolls data, which would most certainly bring some increased volatility back to the market. There is the potential that the yields might continue to slow down during the week, however, in case of any surprises related to macro data, yields could also hit the 4,25% level for one more time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
German 10 year bund (yield chart) giant HS patternGerman 10 year bund keeps scaling. Price action is reflected on the charts. On the long term, seems like the german 10 year bund is building a huge Head and Shoulders pattern. That would be consistent with rates going down in the eurozone. But… if the German bund should spike over 2.50%, that would probably mean that euro rate cuts will be on hold for longer than expected. IMO, it’s all about geopolitics, as it’s also related to oil/natural gas supply from the east, commercial war with the USA, China and India, etc. all of them are inflationary and would also be pushing government spending to the upside on military and defense systems, detracting investment capacity from the private sectors… All to be seen in coming weeks… any insights you would like to share about the topic, please let me know!
TVC:EU10Y
by j_arrieta
US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analysis(What we need to know)!Today, I want to analyze the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield ( TVC:US10Y ) for you in the weekly time frame . In fact, the US 10-Year Government Bonds shows the yield rate of ten-year US Treasury bonds and is a measure of investors' confidence in the US economy . As such, this index influences capital allocation across various markets and impacts broader financial conditions . ----------------------------------------------------- The US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10Y) started its upward trend after COVID-19 . After breaking the Important Resistance line and 200_SMA(Monthly) , we can hope for the continuation of US10Y's upward trend. (The Important Resistance line started in 1981 , so it was very important.) According to the Elliott wave theory , US10Y seems to be completing main wave 4 , so main wave 3 was of the Extended type . If the upper line of the descending channel breaks, we can be more sure of the end of main wave 4. I expect US10Y to rise at least as wide as the descending channel width and up to the Resistance zone(5.55%-4.92%) after the descending channel break , completing the main wave 5 . If the Resistance zone(5.55%-4.92%) is broken, we can expect a further increase in US10Y . Now let's see if the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10Y) increases , what will be the effect on other assets? Impact of Rising 10-Year Bond Yields on Key Assets: Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) and Other Cryptocurrencies : As bond yields increase, riskier assets like Bitcoin may face downward pressure. Investors are often drawn to safer investments, such as bonds, when yields rise, making cryptocurrencies less attractive. Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ) : Higher bond yields usually put pressure on gold prices. Since gold does not offer any yield, a rising yield on bonds increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, causing a potential decline in its price. U.S. Stocks : Rising bond yields can lead to lower stock values, particularly in riskier sectors like tech. Higher bond yields often translate into increased borrowing costs, impacting growth and profitability, especially for companies that rely heavily on credit. US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analyze (US10Y%), Weekly time frame⏰. 🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔 Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:US10YLong
by pejman_zwin
9
US bond bloodbath powers USD/JPY above key levelHigher US Treasury yields has propelled USD/JPY through the 200DMA and 151.95, the latter an important technical level corresponding with prior episodes of Bank of Japan intervention. If it manages to hold above 151.95, traders could consider buying the break with a tight stop either below it or the 200DMA for protection. There's little visible resistance evident until above 155, and even then it's minor. 155.40 is one potential target. Given yield differentials between the US and Japan, you could argue USD/JPY should be higher based on where it traded earlier this year when spreads sat at similar levels.
TVC:US02YLong
by FOREXcom
1
US 10Y TREASURY: retail sales eased the sentimentThe US Treasury market was under influence of the posted data for the Retail Sales in the US in September, as a potential add-on to the total inflation in the country. Released data were in line with the market consensus, as the indicator was higher by 0,4% in September, leading to yearly increase of 1,7%. Without other posted data which would add to the potential move of the inflation in the US, the 10Y US yields eased a bit, and tested the 4,0% level. Still, at Friday trading session, yields ended the week a bit higher, at the level of 4,075%. In the week ahead there are no macro data scheduled for a release, which could point to potential inflation movements, in which sense, it could be expected a relatively calmer week when US yields are in question. There is some probability that yields could test the 4,0% level for one more time, while odds are quite low for the move toward the upside.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX