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Government bonds

Yield CurveThe 2/10 treasury yield spread is quickly flattening and an inversion could happen soon. All of the previous yield curve inversions are associated with memorable market sell-offs and recessions. I believe the ripple effect of the ongoing financial and economic sanctions against Russia will end up being the catalyst for the next meltdown. The market conditions have been favorable to a disaster by many measurements for some time now. Again, there are many unknown cross-currents beginning to work their way into the global economy. On top of that, the FED is raising interest rates in less than two weeks.
TVC:US10Y
by The_Arena_Trader
11
Market topping or not stopping?? Little bit of Macro1. Stocks are fundamentally overvalued. 2. The macro (yield curve and unemployment rate) I'm monitoring is at its peak/low and could be at potential turning point. 3. We need technical analysis to enter this trade and time the short if there is any at all. These are some extremes I'm looking for that can either enrich you if you're right or make you poor if you lack risk managment skills. I'm talking Michael Burry 2008 trade if history repeats itself.
TVC:US03MYShort
by Robert077
Yield Curve touched the 0% - Will it continue up?US10Y-US02Y = Yield Curve. The Yield Curve has predicted each of the previous market crashes. The markets are crashing now but is it really the beginning of a bigger market crash? OR are the markets just very volatile and have more last push up? Maybe yes for the US Markets. In 2000, the market peak was when the yield curve was still negative (-0.3%). In 2007, the market peak was when the yield curve was at 0.5%. Is 2024 more like 2000 or 2007?
TVC:US10YLong
by brian7683
US 10Y TREASURY: September?During the previous week the 10Y US benchmark rates reached the lowest weekly level at 3.78%, and moved down from the support line at 4.2%. There are two major reasons for such a strong drop in Treasury yields. The first was on Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell noted a potential for a rate cut in the future period, which market perceives to be September`s FOMC meeting, and the second reason was surprisingly weak jobs data posted on Friday. The posted non-farm payrolls for July were significantly weaker from market expectations, reaching 114K, from 175K expected by the market. At the same time, the unemployment rate reached 4.3%, again higher from 4.1% estimated by the market. There is currently fear among investors that the US might slip into recession, however, there are also analysts who are noting that weak figures might be due to seasonal effects. Surprisingly weak jobs data led investors to increase odds for more than one rate cut during the course of this year. Also, there is currently 58% chances by market expectations, that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points. After such a strong move in Treasury yields, it could be expected that the market will slowly digest the Friday`s data and adjust positions accordingly. In this sense, there is a probability that the yields would revert a bit to the upside, at least to the level of 3.9%. However, at this point levels around 4.0% are questionable.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y - 7 Days Of Hell! When Will It End!?The FED has maintained their stance with 5.50% whilst BOE and several others have either lowered interest rates by .25 basis points or raised it. Due to this, we have seen turmoil in the yield markets, -11%* decline within 7 days with more potential pain to come. Current price action is trading below 2024's lows which could be a factor, if short-term trading to capture relief rallies back up to PD arrays. 3.783 is the next draw on liquidity. Set a alert! Monthly/Weekly buyside imbalance sellside inefficiency + order block located @ 3.644 - 3.535 is the next potential draw over the monthly basis
TVC:US10YShort
by LegendSince
US 10 year Bond BoxesAll horizontal rectangles edges are Levels I will be watching for potential support and resistance action. Wouldn't say I am overly confident in the potential colored path of the boxes (red, cyan, yellow, pink and blue), but will provide step by step updates if anything significant pops up in a discretionary perspective. The project should or might become more relevant with it's levels and zones, in time, if we get to see specific price action at the levels to indicate at least a slight sign of relevance. First one to look out for is potential support at the red zone. Next to watch out for is a bullish toned cyan box perspective. If these fail, all bets are not off, we just let the price action dictate how the market feels inside the boxes and what it does when it escapes one. Thinking outside of the box there might be another potential aspect for this project. What if the information is encrypted so that we don't get to see in advance what can really actually happen? How can we crack the code and why? Take a deep breath. Get A Touch of Zen. Look at the design without having thoughts about it and see what pops up and why and how. I like the O icon and the nen text location. Could be wrong though. This one is similar to the EURUSD project. Linked.
TVC:US10
by nen
UK Bond Steps and ForcesThis is my perspective on the forces that might apply on the UK 10Y Gilt. It can climb along the red rectangles to fall down to the big green or if the first red rejects it or the bottom arc attracts it, we might see support in that area. The vertical green is a special one where unusual or special circumstances and price action might occur, either higher volatility or sudden shift in sentiment. Treat everything as potential support and resistance but also stepping stones in case the market follows the main scenario highlighted with the purple path arrow. The second one with checkmarks is secondary and depends on the activity at the first vertical long red in case we reach it. Arcs are special forces of attraction and or repulsion. They can be broken depending on the momentum or type of activity. If the price slows down near them it can just slide through them, but if candlestick patterns of potential reversals and inflections are formed, I will take a good look at them when deciding how and if to approach the market or adjust/manage previously opened positions.
U
by nen
How I Stay Organized and Efficient During My Morning RoutineGood morning, traders! ☕️ As I gear up for the trading session, here's how I stay organized and efficient during my morning routine: 1️⃣ Plan the night before: I prep my trading station, review market news, and outline my trading goals before calling it a day. This sets a clear roadmap for the morning and reduces decision fatigue. 2️⃣ Start with a ritual: I kick-start my morning with a ritual that helps me get focused and energized. Whether it's meditation, visualization, exercise, or enjoying a cup of coffee/tea, this routine primes my mind for the challenges ahead. 3️⃣ Time blocking: I allocate specific time slots for key activities like fundamental and sentiment research, top down technical analysis, bias matrices, reviewing trade setups, and analyzing charts. This helps me stay on track, avoid distractions, and make the most of my pre-session hours. 4️⃣ Utilize checklists: I have a checklist that outlines essential tasks like reviewing economic data, assessing overnight market developments, rebalancing portfolio and updating my watchlist. If I have anything specific I need to focus on that session, I will take note too. This ensures I don't miss important steps or actions/tasks. 5️⃣ Stay organized digitally: I leverage technology tools like trading journals, note-taking apps, and calendar reminders to keep track of my trade ideas, record observations, and stay organized. This digital approach streamlines my workflow most of the time. 6️⃣ Focus on self-care: Prioritizing self-care is vital for optimal performance. I make sure to nourish my body with a healthy breakfast, hydrate adequately (especially important during the extended heat waves I experience where I live), and take short breaks to relax and recharge. A balanced mindset is key to success. Finding an efficient morning routine is a personal journey. Experiment with different strategies, listen to your needs, and fine-tune your routine over time. Start your day right and set yourself up for trading success! 📈✨
TVC:US10YEducation
by AlexSoro
1
US10Y : What/where to look The Fed say don't worry, things are looking good. There is 'no landing'. So lets be happy and continue as usual. The stocks are riding high. Jobs are plenty. Surely things are fine. But the MARKET says other wise. Above is a simple way of looking at it. The market looks like it is scared shit and continue to buy up longer term bonds. If you look closely, 3.70% is the line separating heaven and hell. I am sitting back until it falls below, then it should be time to begin trading - unlike many who shorted way too early. Why 3.70%? Look closely. When something is going to break, it is usually the 'structure' - and the whole house of cards will fall down - in an instance :) Good luck.
TVC:US10YShort
by i_am_siew
3
US01MY : An important chartThis chart is actually quite important. I take a look at it all the time. It would be quite interesting when it starts to fall, ever so slightly at first, just below the EFFR. We also need to understand which arrow is the BIGGER one. The green or the RED. This can easily answer which is the bigger POTENTIAL :) Good luck. P/S : DO not just believe what I say. Use your common sense. If we look at the chart of most FX pairs, try not to look at the price action. Instead, look at the movement in volume. What I can see is that the MARKET is checking out if there are anymore BUYERs of risky assets. We can see it is running out of buyers, i.e. suckers. What lies ahead is easy to figure out.
TVC:US01MYShort
by i_am_siew