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Government bonds

INCOMING LOWER HIGHS!!When they bring the talking heads on TV and make them say: "we haven't seen anything yet, yields are going higher!", you know it's time to buy them! Every single time they do this, bonds yields are either making higher highs or very close to those "local tops". It was identical prior to October 7th of last year. Look it up as a reference. If you don't like that relation, how about you look up Ray Dalio 'warning us, poor naive investors' to NOT BUY LONG TERM NOTES. Yields going up is nothing but a big lie in my moronic opinion. This is the next 'Lower high' and I think we're now heading with clean air down to 3.26% on the 10yr note.
TVC:US10Y
by salomondrin
Why the US 10-Year Yield Deserves Close AttentionThe 10-year US Treasury yield, at its highest since July, has mostly moved sideways this year. However, the weekly chart reveals a potential falling wedge pattern. If yields close above 4.53%, it could signal a push towards new highs. Initial resistance is at 4.18% (200-day moving average) and 4.24% (55-week moving average). Markets expect a 25-basis point Fed rate cut in November, but investors are watching key economic data, and Fed comments for further insights. Keep this on your radar, because while the market holds above 3.50, this longer term potentially bullish pattern will remain valid. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10YLong
by The_STA
US 10Y TREASURY: driven by inflationThe inflation data were the ones that the market was watching closely during the previous week. The September inflation came just a bit higher from the market estimate. While core inflation remained elevated at 0,3% for the month and 3,3% for the year, the inflation figures were standing at 0,2% in September and 2,4% for the year. As inflation is holding modestly above Feds target of 2,0%, the markets are anticipating the next Feds move. Whether they will cut in November or maybe, the next cut will be postponed for December. This question came after the Atlanta Fed President Bostic noted in an interview that the higher inflation data might impact his opinion to skip a rate cut in November. The US Treasury yields reacted accordingly during the previous week, where 10Y US yields were pushed to the levels above the key 4,0% level. The highest weekly yields reached were at 4,1%, however, they slipped modestly toward the 4,073% at Friday's trading session. As the market is digesting the latest inflation, it should be expected for yields to calm down a bit in the week ahead. The next target of markets might be to test levels below the 4,0%, where 3,9% or even 3,8% might be the next targets.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Bullish rates reversal signals US dollar downside riskIf you want clues on directional risks for the US dollar, there are worse places to look than US 2-year Treasury note futures, shown in the left-hand pane of the chart. As one of the most liquid futures contracts globally, the price signals it provides can be very informative for broader markets, especially in the FX universe. Having tumbled most of October, implying higher US yields given the inverse relationship between the two, the price action this week looks potentially important. We saw the price take out long-running uptrend support on Wednesday before staging a dramatic bullish reversal on Thursday despite another hot US inflation report. The bounce off the 200-day moving average on the back of big volumes delivered not only a hammer candle but also took the price back above former uptrend support, delivering a bullish signal that suggests directional risks for yields may be skewing lower. You can see that in the right-hand pane with US 2-year bond yields hitting multi month highs on Thursday before reversing lower. But it’s the correlation analysis beneath the chart that I want you to focus on, looking at the strength of the relationship US 2-year yields have had with a variety of FX pairs over the past fortnight. USD/JPY has a score of 0.9 with USD/CNH not far behind at 0.89, signalling that where US 2-year yields have moved over the past two weeks, these pairs have almost always followed. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD have experienced similarly strong relationships over the same period with scores ranging from -0.88 to -0.96, the only difference being where yields have moved, they’ve usually done the opposite. The broader readthrough is that shorter-dated US yields have been driving US dollar direction recently, with rising rates fuelling dollar strength. But given the bullish signal from US 2-year Treasury note futures on Thursday, if we just saw the lows, it implies we may have seen the highs for US yields and the US dollar. Good luck! DS
TVC:US02YEducation
by FOREXcom
$TNX The little Yield that could. You think the Great Yield slaughter of the 40 years was something; just feast your eyes on the great Yield breakout, eons in the making. In our next predicted cycle of disastrous economic, but not all that surprising or unexpected economic events; we will now see the Great Bond Slaughter coupled with treasury yields sky high. An event the likes of which the world has never seen. As you can see the TVC:TNX is flagging on all high time frame charts and has several upper targets to reach before then top is in. Our next target being a measured move at 8%. Since we called this breakout 2 years ago, it has not failed to disappoint. You might also want to check out the TVC:VIX and TVC:DXY monthly/quarterly/yearly charts. When the shit goes down, you better get ready. ~Cypress Hill
TVC:US10YLong
by Midgar-
Very close to Yield Curve Inversion, AGAINAfter #InterestRates were cut people were expecting a furious wave of buying, this has not come into fruition. Recent events: 2Yr Yield rallied substantially. 10Yr #Yield bottomed when we called it, has not run as much as it's shorter term counterpart. We're close to inversion again! Colored areas = POTENTIAL Inverse Head & Shoulder = BOTTOM. Worth noting, TVC:TNX has a higher right shoulder. Further analysis: We are seeing a Negative Divergence on $DJI. Volume has been lessening as the days go by. TVC:RUT Small Caps are LOWER and trading in a tightening range.
TVC:US02Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
10Y bonds seeking support from April-July channelFrom April to July the 10 year Treasury yield was in a downward channel. It broke below that, retested the resistance-now-support for bonds, and kept moving until it recently re-entered. The fundamentals for long bonds still seem strong, with the cutting cycle starting with an abrupt 50bp cut, but bonds seem to be seeking support. If yields break above this channel, then we may be seeing something unexpected sniffed out by the bond market. If we retest and continue the downtrend in yields, then expect a nice downtrend back to the post-2008 norm.
TVC:US10YLong
by ijustwanttomakeatrendline
10Y is back in the April-July channel, testing supportFrom April to July the 10 year Treasury yield was in a downward channel. It broke below that, retested the resistance-now-support for bonds, and kept moving until it recently re-entered. The fundamentals for long bonds still seem strong, with the cutting cycle starting with an abrupt 50bp cut, but bonds seem to be seeking support. If yields break above this channel, then we may be seeing something unexpected sniffed out by the bond market. If we retest and continue the downtrend in yields, then expect a nice downtrend back to the post-2008 norm.
TVC:US10YLong
by ijustwanttomakeatrendline
Another great opportunity to work with U.S. T-BondsAnother great opportunity to work with U.S. government debt in the short term. We have all noticed that after the 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the reaction of the fixed income markets was mixed. Geopolitical and domestic issues did not allow institutional investors to act freely, leading to a reverse effect. Currently, another 50 basis point cut is expected, and the treasury curve is in a flattening phase. Yields have risen again. This is exactly what we call a great opportunity to re-enter the markets with 6-12 month expectations. #UBT #TLT #UST #US20Y #US30Y
TVC:US20YLong
by gorgevorgian
4
US 10Y TREASURY: surprised by jobs dataThe major macro news during the previous week were posted nonfarm and unemployment figures in the US for September. The nonfarm payrolls significantly beated market expectation, by reaching the figure of 254K, while unemployment rate dropped to the level of 4,1% from 4,2% during August. The markets are now convinced that the Fed will slow down rate cuts till the end of this year to 25 bps, considering the high resilience of the US economy. Previously, markets were pricing another 50bps cuts. The US yields adjusted accordingly to new expectations. The 10Y US benchmark was moving around 3,80 during the week, but Friday's jobs data pushed the yields to the higher grounds, ending the week at level of 3,96. Yields were testing the level of 4% previously. It could be expected that the markets will spend a week ahead by digesting the jobs data, in which sense, the 4,0% level could be tested during the week. At this moment, there is no indication that yields could move to the higher grounds. On the opposite side, there could be some relaxation, at least to the level of 3,9%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Predictive Correlation the SG10Y Bond Yields on S&P500I have posted about this correlation previously. Perhaps this time it might be clearer to see... This uncanny correlation between the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields as a leading indicator for the S&P500 was noticed some time ago, and tested since. As shown, the major turning points were seen in trend changes of the SG10Y GBonds first, before the S&P500 reacted. The vertical time markings show when you would short or long depending on the trend breakouts of the SG10Y GBonds (see lower panel, blue line), Comcomitantly, comparing what happens from that point, you can see the S&P500 in the upper panel with yellow line. The lowest panel is the MACD... and this shows the correlated pattern of a (lagging) technical indicator. Since 2023, there are at least six instances with 100% hit rate. Now... that brings us to TODAY. It appears that we are given advance warning of the next couple of months. For now, there should be a quick pop up to the very recent high followed by a failure of support in the S&P500; and then the expected trends should play out...
TVC:SG10YShort
by Auguraltrader
10Y - 02Y outlookMy recent assessments have been negated. I am mostly skewed to the idea it will break negative again, correlating to sentiment fuel for the blow off top in the SPX (no recession sentiment short term?). Once it flips negative again, to back test the purple bull penant, I strongly expect that to correlate to the markets topping and will potentially exit if I see further confirmation across other instruments. Reason for exiting prior to it flipping positive again if it goes negative, is because my research has shown me when the 10-2 yield spread is truly trending upwards to break 0%, the market falls with it, as I imagine "smart money" will know what's coming and exit. Not financial advice. Just my prediction for now.
TVC:US10Y
by mypostsareNotFinancialAdvice