Will gold break through on August 5th?
1. Key News Drivers
✅ Expectations of a Fed Rate Cut Strengthen (Core Logic)
Weak non-farm payroll data (the probability of a September rate cut soars to 90%) leads the market to anticipate two rate cuts this year, with the first likely in September.
The US dollar weakens: expectations of interest rate cuts suppress the US dollar, and the attractiveness of gold as an interest-free asset increases.
✅ Rising risk aversion
Trump's tariff policy has sparked trade concerns, compounded by global economic uncertainty (such as a slowdown in Europe and geopolitical risks).
Fragile market sentiment: If subsequent economic data (such as CPI and retail sales) falls short of expectations, gold could rally further.
⚠️ Risk Warning: If Fed officials signal hawkishness (such as downplaying rate cuts) or if economic data rebounds, gold could experience a short-term correction.
2. Key Technical Signals
📈 Bullish Trend Confirmation Conditions:
A break above $3,375 (previous resistance level) opens up upside potential, with targets between $3,390 and $3,400, or even $3,450. Hold the support of 3335 (bull defense line). If the pullback does not break this level, the trend will remain strong.
📉 Pullback Risk Warning:
If 3335 is broken, a pullback to 3300 (a key psychological barrier) is possible, turning into a volatile market.
4-hour chart is overbought: Be wary of short-term profit-taking after consecutive days of gains.
🔍 Key Levels:
Resistance: 3375 → 3390-3400 → 3450
Support: 3360-3350 → 3335 → 3300
3. Today's Trading Strategy
🎯 Main Strategy: Buy on pullbacks (low-cost buying), supplemented by shorting at key resistance levels.
👉 Long Opportunities:
Conservatives: Enter after a pullback to 3360-3350 and stabilization. Stop loss at 3340, target at 3380-3390.
Aggressive: If it breaks through 3375, go long with a light position, set a stop-loss at 3360, and target 3400.
👉 Short Opportunities:
Short if it first hits the 3390-3400 range and finds resistance, set a stop-loss at 3410, and target 3375-3360.
⚠️ Notes:
Avoid chasing the ups and downs, and wait for key levels to be confirmed.
If it falls below 3335, pause long positions and wait for support at 3300 before repositioning.
4. Medium- to Long-Term Outlook
Bull Market Start Signal: A weekly break above 3400 could confirm the start of the Fed's rate cut cycle.
Potential target: 3500-3600 (historical high area).
Risks: If US economic data improves or the Fed turns hawkish, gold could experience a deep correction to 3200-3150.
Summary
Short-term outlook: 3375 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it breaks through, go long; if it hits resistance, trade in a range.
Medium- to long-term: Focus on Fed policy and economic data. Trend-setting long positions should wait for clearer signals.
📌 Action suggestion: Give priority to callback of long orders during the day, strictly set stop-loss, and be wary of high-level shocks and washouts!
