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#DYDX/USDT#DYDX The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is adhering to it well and is heading to break it strongly upwards and retest it We have a bounce from the lower limit of the descending channel, this support is at a price of 0.760 We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, which supports the rise We have a trend to stabilize above the moving average 100 Entry price 0.770 First target 0.800 Second target 0.820 Third target .842
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
Update: Elliot-wave-says-no INDEX:BTCUSD Hypothesis: - Rejection from confluence of 20 week MA, 50 day MA and 0.786 Fib level (and Elliot prediction pattern) - Test $74k support line and 0.618 weekly Fib level, possibly wick $69k Fundamentals Key Points Research suggests inflation is moderate, with annual CPI at 2.46% and PCE at 2.06% for March 2025, though tariffs may push prices higher. It seems likely that employment growth is slowing, with 151,000 jobs added in February 2025 and unemployment at 4.1%, showing some weakness. The evidence leans toward economic contraction, with Q1 2025 GDP growth estimated at -1.8%, following 2.3% in Q4 2024. Consumer strength appears mixed, with a 4.6% personal savings rate in January 2025 and high credit card rates at 24.20%. Monetary policy is steady, with the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, and potential future rate cuts are anticipated. Fiscal policy faces challenges, with debt projected to reach 200% of GDP by 2047 if unchanged, amid possible tax cuts. Banking risks include regulatory and credit issues, especially in commercial real estate for smaller banks. Energy demand is rising, with renewables like solar growing fast, while natural gas remains key. Real estate is tough, with high prices and rates, but moderation in price increases is expected. Commodities outlook is bearish, with declining prices, except for gold, which may see record highs. Inflation: Current Projections and Tariff Impacts Inflation projections, as per the Cleveland FED's inflation nowcasting (Cleveland FED Inflation Nowcasting), indicate that for March 2025, the annual CPI is estimated at 2.46%, with core CPI at 2.99%, and PCE at 2.06%, with core PCE at 2.47%. Quarterly figures for 2025 Q1 show CPI at 3.85% and PCE at 2.80%. These nowcasts are based on daily oil prices, weekly gasoline prices, and monthly CPI/PCE readings, aiming to estimate current inflation before official data releases. Recent US tariff policies, implemented in early March 2025, add complexity. As of March 7, 2025, additional tariffs include 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada not satisfying USMCA rules of origin, 10% on Canadian energy products outside USMCA, and 20% on Chinese imports, up from 10% (CBP Tariff Statement). Economic analyses suggest these tariffs could increase inflation, with estimates ranging from a one-time 0.6% price increase to a 0.4% rise in PCE inflation, depending on implementation and retaliation (Impact of Tariffs on Inflation). The nowcasts likely account for these factors, but ongoing trade tensions, including retaliatory tariffs from Canada effective March 13, 2025, on $29.8 billion in US products, could further influence prices (Canada Tariff List). Employment: Signs of Softening The latest employment data, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Summary for February 2025, released on March 7, 2025, shows nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000, below the 168,000 average over the prior twelve months (BLS Employment Situation). The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4% in January, with the labor force participation rate falling 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%, its lowest since January 2023. A broader measure of unemployment, including discouraged workers, jumped to 8%, the highest since October 2021, indicating potential cracks in the labor market amid policy uncertainty and government layoffs. Economic Growth: Contraction Concerns Economic growth estimates, as per the Atlanta FED's GDPNow model, indicate a significant slowdown, with Q1 2025 growth nowcast at -1.8% as of March 18, 2025, up from -2.1% on March 17, but still negative (Atlanta FED GDPNow). This follows a 2.3% growth in Q4 2024, as per the BEA's second estimate, driven by consumer and government spending but offset by investment declines (BEA GDP Q4 2024). The negative Q1 nowcast, if realized, could signal a recession, given the historical threshold of two consecutive quarters of negative growth, though Q4 2024 was positive. Consumer Strength: Savings and Debt Pressures Consumer strength is mixed, with the personal savings rate at 4.6% in January 2025, up from 3.5% in December 2024, reflecting caution (BEA Personal Saving Rate). This rate, calculated as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, suggests households are saving more amid economic uncertainty. However, credit card interest rates are high, with the average APR at 24.20% for March 2025, down slightly from recent months but still burdensome, especially for those with weaker credit, where rates can reach 27.71% (Average Credit Card Rate). Monetary Policy: Steady Rates with Future Cuts Anticipated The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as outlined in the March 19, 2025, FOMC statement, maintains the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, unchanged from January and following cuts in late 2024 (Federal Reserve FOMC Statement). The FOMC projects a 50 basis point reduction in 2025 and another 50 in 2026, reflecting a cautious approach amid solid labor conditions and elevated inflation, with PCE inflation expected at 2.7% by year-end, influenced by tariffs. The Fed's stance balances supporting growth while monitoring inflation risks. Fiscal Policy: Unsustainable Debt Trajectory Fiscal policy faces significant challenges, with the GAO's February 2025 report warning of an unsustainable path, projecting federal debt held by the public to reach 200% of GDP by 2047 if current revenue and spending policies persist (GAO Fiscal Health). The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure shows fiscal policy added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in Q4 2024, but expects a negative impact in Q1 2025, driven by weak federal and state purchases (Hutchins Center FIM). President Trump's proposed tax cuts, including extending TCJA provisions and new breaks, could increase deficits, adding pressure on interest rates and long-term fiscal sustainability (US Fiscal Policy 2025). Banking and Credit Risks: Sectoral Vulnerabilities The US banking sector faces multiple risks in 2025, particularly for midsize and regional banks with concentrated exposures to commercial real estate (CRE), especially office space. Deloitte Insights notes banks with assets between $10 billion to $100 billion have CRE loans at 199% of risk-based capital as of Q2 2024, compared to 54% for banks over $250 billion, highlighting potential credit risks (Banking Outlook 2025). Regulatory scrutiny, cybersecurity threats, and operational risks, as per Ncontracts, add pressure, with 89% of community bankers rating regulation as critical (Emerging Risks in Banking). Larger banks, however, have buffers to manage loan losses, and the sector is seen as resilient by some, with opportunities in fixed-income investments. Energy: Rising Demand and Renewable Growth The energy sector is experiencing robust demand, with utility-scale power generation reaching 3,287 billion kWh by September 2024, up 3% year-over-year, driven by federal policies promoting domestic content (Power and Utilities Outlook). Renewable energy, particularly solar, grew by 30% in 2024, expected to reach 34% growth by year-end, while natural gas, generating 43% of electricity, saw a 4.1% increase but is projected to decline to 40% in 2025 due to high fuel prices. The Trump administration's policies add uncertainty, but demand from data centers and electrification continues to grow (US Power Sector Outlook). Real Estate: High Prices and Affordability Challenges The real estate market remains challenging, with home prices and mortgage rates high, around 7%, prolonging buyer struggles (Housing Market Predictions). The surge in prices since 2020 has lost steam, with some markets seeing declines due to increased inventory and softer demand. Experts project moderation in 2025, with slower increases in prices and rents, but affordability gaps persist, especially with potential rate cuts expected to boost buying power (5-Year Housing Predictions). Commodities: Bearish Outlook with Gold Exception The commodities outlook for 2025 is generally bearish, with the World Bank projecting a 5% decline in commodity prices, reaching a five-year low, driven by an oil glut limiting price effects even with Middle East conflicts (Commodity Markets Outlook). Energy prices are expected to drop, with oil prices declining, though natural gas may rise. Metal prices are set to edge lower, while agricultural prices should ease. However, gold is expected to hit record highs, driven by central bank easing and safe-haven demand amid trade tensions (Commodities Outlook 2025). Additional Considerations Other important factors include geopolitical risks, such as trade wars and conflicts, impacting energy and commodities, and technological shifts like AI driving energy demand. The interplay of these elements, alongside domestic policy shifts, underscores the complexity of the economic outlook, with significant implications for growth, inflation, and financial stability.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Muri001
IMPORTANT ALERT: SMA-200 Display Error on TradingView# 🚨 IMPORTANT ALERT: SMA-200 Display Error on TradingView 🚨 ### Dear trading community, I've detected a significant error on the TradingView platform that specifically affects the display of the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA-200) on the daily chart (1D) of Bitcoin/USDT. ## 📊 The issue: - The SMA-200 on the daily chart is showing **incorrect historical positions** on TradingView - The indicator appears to have anomalously "rewritten" its history - **Drastic change detected**: * **YESTERDAY**: Bitcoin was trading around $84,026 positioned just above the SMA-200 * **TODAY**: The SMA-200 appears significantly repositioned lower, showing a much greater distance between price and the average - This directly affects technical analysis and decisions based on this important indicator ## ✅ Verification performed: - I've compared the data with the official Binance platform - Confirmed that the correct display of the SMA-200 shows BTC trading recently near/above this key level (~$84,000 USDT) - The problem appears to be exclusive to TradingView and does not reflect the actual market behavior ## ⚠️ Implications for your trading: - Do not make decisions based on the current position of the SMA-200 on TradingView - Verify your analyses with data from Binance or other reliable sources - Consider that this error could also affect other derived indicators ## 🔄 Temporary solutions: - Use the Binance platform directly to view charts - Manually reconfigure your SMA-200 on TradingView - Wait for TradingView to fix the issue (I have already reported the error) I will keep the community updated on any resolution. Meanwhile, take extreme caution when basing your decisions on this key technical indicator. **Safe trading!** #Bitcoin #TradingView #TechnicalError #Alert #Trading
by JFSUAREZ37
1
#ENA/USDT#ENA The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading for a strong breakout and retest. We are experiencing a rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is support at 0.3530. We are experiencing a downtrend on the RSI indicator, which is about to break and retest, supporting the upward trend. We are looking for stability above the 100 Moving Average. Entry price: 0.3700 First target: 0.3820 Second target: 0.3950 Third target: 0.4118
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
#CYBER/USDT#CYBER The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading for a strong breakout and retest. We are seeing a bounce from the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is support at 1.46. We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, supporting the upward trend. We are looking for stability above the 100 moving average. Entry price: 1.52 First target: 1.587 Second target: 1.67 Third target: 1.67
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
Bitcoin back on the bull marchAfter a long period of consolidation, it appears bitcoin has finally found its footing at 76k. I've continued to be cycle bullish and would now like to see the final leg up of the cycle. Macro appears neutral with no additional rate cuts being forecast in beyond 2 in 2025, I also see no case for a surprise rate cut. We are at favourable risk levels with SMAX in the high 60's which is very high bullish probability for this stage of the cycle. And we are finally in a clear piece of short term bullish momentum.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by MangosteenBTC
BTC PUSHINGBitcoin is finally waking up. After weeks of choppy action and failed attempts to break out, price has pushed decisively above the $85,000 resistance zone. The bullish divergence on RSI that confirmed earlier this month is doing its job — momentum is building, and buyers are stepping in. We're now flirting with the 200 MA, which previously acted as stiff resistance. A clean break and close above it would open the door to the $91,000 zone — and possibly even higher. RSI is trending upward, showing growing strength, but we’ll need to see follow-through to confirm that this isn’t just another fakeout. Volume remains underwhelming, which is the one red flag here. If this rally is the real deal, we should start seeing more aggressive buying. For now, Bitcoin looks constructive — but as always, this market has a habit of humbling even the most confident traders. Let’s see if the bulls have the strength to keep pushing.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ScottMelker
#ZETA/USDT#ZETA The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading for a strong breakout and retest. We are seeing a bounce from the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is support at 0.3013. We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, supporting the upward trend. We are looking for stability above the 100 moving average. Entry price: 0.3140 First target: 0.3390 Second target: 0.3637 Third target: 0.3954
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
Render (RNDR) Price Breakout: Is a Rally to $5+ on the Horizon?RNDR/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Strong Bullish Breakout Ahead? Render Token (RNDR) has just broken a key trendline resistance, signaling a potential strong uptrend. Here’s why traders should pay close attention to this breakout. 🔥 Key Insights: ✅ Breakout Confirmation: The price has pushed above a long-term descending trendline, indicating bullish momentum. ✅ Retest & Continuation? A successful hold above the $3.90 - $4.00 zone could confirm the breakout and lead to higher price targets. ✅ Key Targets (Take Profits): 🎯 TP1: $4.47 – First resistance level. 🎯 TP2: $4.83 – Major resistance zone. 🎯 TP3: $5.21 – Strong psychological level. ✅ Moving Average Support: Price is now trading above the MA (3.56), acting as dynamic support. 📈 Trading Outlook: If RNDR holds above $3.90, buyers could push the price towards the $4.50 - $5.20 range in the coming sessions. A rejection here may lead to a retest around $3.50-$3.60 before another push higher. 🚨 Bullish or Bearish? This is a strong bullish setup, but confirmation above $4.00 with volume is key for sustained momentum. Keep an eye on Bitcoin and market sentiment!
CRYPTO:RENDERUSDLong
by GoodTarget
Market overview WHAT HAPPENED? Last week, bitcoin tested the key zone of $85,000-$88,000 (volume zone). After receiving the seller's reaction, we formed a local structure that questioned the global decline. In the daily analysis on TradingView on Friday, a support zone of $84,800-$83,500 (pushing volumes) was noted. After the test, we received a reaction and confirmed the buyers' intentions to move the quote to higher levels. WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT? At the moment, longs are a priority. The confirmation of this scenario will be overcoming the $87,500 level. The target for the movement is the $95,000 mark, and there is no significant resistance before it. Despite the fact that we’re in an uptrend, there are no volume zones of the buyer up to the minimum mark of $76,000. Therefore, with strong market activity of the seller at the current level, it’s possible to resume the decline to the lows. Sell Zones: $95,000–$96,700 (accumulated volumes) $97,500–$98,400 (pushing volumes) $107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies) Buy Zones: $77,000–$73,000 (volume anomalies, pushing volumes) IMPORTANT DATES About the macroeconomic news this week: • Monday, March 24, 13:45 (UTC) — publication of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the index of business activity in the US services sector for March; • Tuesday, March 25, 14:00 (UTC) — publication of the U.S. consumer confidence index for March and data on new home sales in the United States for February; • Wednesday, March 26, 7:00 (UTC) — publication of the UK consumer price index compared to February 2024; Wednesday, March 26, 10:00 (UTC) — publication of the UK spring budget forecast; • Thursday, March 27, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of US GDP for the 4th quarter of 2024, as well as the number of initial applications for US unemployment benefits; • Friday, March 28, 7:00 (UTC) — publication of UK GDP for the 4th quarter of 2024; • Friday, March 28, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the basic price index of US personal consumption expenditures for February, as well as in comparison with February 2023. *This post is not a financial recommendation. Make decisions based on your own experience. #analytics
by Crypto_robotics
#AGLD/USDT #AGLD The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading for a strong breakout and retest. We are experiencing a rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is support at 0.960. We are experiencing a downtrend on the RSI indicator, which is about to break and retest, supporting the upward trend. We are looking for stability above the 100 Moving Average. Entry price: 1.00 First target: 1.02 Second target: 1.05 Third target: 1.087
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal