Bitcoin: 113K Support Bounce Buy Signal.Bitcoin has retraced thanks mostly to "unexpected" revisions to labor market statistics. While this move has many making outrageous forecasts, price has simply retraced to the 113K support levels and has generated a swing trade long signal (break of 114K). IF the momentum stays intact, it is within reason to anticipate a test of the low 120K's while a more aggressive expectations would be a break out into the 130K's. Keep in mind if 123K is broken, even by a small amount, that would confirm the current movement as the wave 5 of 5 which means it becomes the most vulnerable to a broader correction.
This NFP report and BLS situation is the perfect example of a catalyst that NO ONE in the financial "expert" space saw coming. Even Chairman Powell on Wednesday was pointing out how stable employment growth has been and emphasized the importance of this statistic for their rate decisions. Which means the Federal Reserve is making decisions based on totally inaccurate data. Which also means the entire market has been priced completely wrong for months. My point is, "official" information that you may be basing your investments on can be totally inaccurate and can be revealed out of nowhere. This risk alone puts every investor at the mercy of the market and why it is so important to recognize the limitations of ANY market information through the lens of RISK management.
I have been writing about a potential bullish range breakout beyond 120K for a test of the 130s OR if the range support breaks instead, to watch for a test of the key support at 113K. There is NO way to know which way the market will choose in advance, it all depends on the outcomes of specific events which act as catalysts for one scenario or the other.
This is why being knowledgeable about wave counts and other forecasting techniques can be very helpful in terms of gauging risk and potential. And based on this, AS LONG AS the 108K area is NOT overlapped, the current price structure is still within the boundaries of a bullish sub wave 4. This is why I am still short term bullish on Bitcoin and why I believe the current buy signal has potential to test at least the low 120's in the coming weeks. IF the 108K area is broken instead, that reduce the chances of a short term bullish break out, and may be the proof that the broader Wave 5 structure is complete.
The risk at this point can be measure from the 112K low area and nearest profit objective 118K which offers an attractive reward/risk. Measure everything from RISK first, and always be prepared to be wrong. If the market pays, consider it a gift.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
