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Minor advantage on the bullish sideMorning folks, So, downside AB-CD action is started as we suggested. But, it is very slow and going heavy. Appearing of triangle shape here and early signs of bullish dynamic pressure on daily chart turns the balance slightly on the bullish side. Still, we do not have yet any clear patterns that makes us sure. So, if you're conservative - it would be better to wait a bit. If you still want to buy inside the triangle - it would be better to place initial stop below OP target, just not to be washed out occasionally, if AB=CD will be completed. Because it doesn't break the bullish context but could give us "222' Buy instead.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Was that end of bull run? BTC Price action + signal!Hello everyone! i want share my idea + signal at bitcoin. I'll make simple technical analysis, yesterday bitcoin test 106500 LVL but i think sellers are still strong and they will brake that support zone and then we have 101000-100000 support zone where we can see real buyers if we are still in bull trend. in my opinion bear trend will start soon. Why bitcoin made new high? with technical it tested 1 week FVG and it worked well but what happened exactly? Despite the high, profit-taking is evident. On-chain data shows $4.02B in volume from 1–5y holders (highest since February), suggesting old hands are selling into strength. ETF inflows slowed this week, and the Fear & Greed Index at 74 (“Greed”) signals potential overheating. If $100K fails, a deeper correction to $90K–$87K could confirm a short-term bear trend. Institutional Adoption: Highlighted $40B+ ETF inflows and corporate buying (e.g., MicroStrategy), as these are major drivers of the $111,880 high on May 22, 2025. Regulatory Tailwinds: Noted Trump’s re-election and SEC speculation, which markets priced in as bullish. Halving & Scarcity: Linked the April 2024 halving to reduced supply, supported by on-chain data showing low exchange inflows. Macro Factors: Tied Fed rate cuts and BTC’s “digital gold” narrative to the rally, as these are widely discussed in 2024–2025. Added on-chain evidence ($4.02B volume from older holders) to support your view of profit-taking and seller strength. Noted slowing ETF inflows and high Fear & Greed Index (74) to justify a potential correction, aligning with your bearish outlook. Suggested $100K as a critical level to watch, with a break below signaling a deeper drop to $90K–$87K, giving traders a clear risk framework. This is not long term, short signal but for few days it will be good, we have FOMC soon and it will show us real bitcoin price direction. Open short at 1075000 Stop loss at 109000 Take profit at 101000 Always make your own research!!!! for collaboration text me Private!!!
Short
by elmakacho
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Break & Retest of ATH Signals Uptrend to $120K?Overview Summary Bitcoin ( COINBASE:BTCUSD ) is retesting a major zone after its breakout above the previous ATH resistance zone of $105K–$107K, a level that previously marked the top of the 2024 cycle before it pulled back to $76K. This chart now shows BTC pulled back from $111K highs, potentially validating a classic "break and retest" pattern and continuation of the overall trend. Price action is unfolding within a clean ascending uptrend channel structure that has defined the bull trend since late March. With BTC currently testing the upper boundary of this previous major resistance zone ($105K–$107K), this area now acts as the "make-or-break level" for the long awaited bull run. If buyers continue to hold this level, the market may resume its upward momentum with heavy strength, opening the door to the next leg towards our medium term target of $120K+ as projected by the channel extension. However, a decisive close below $105K would invalidate this near-term structure and suggest deeper consolidation or a sentiment reset. Key Technical Structure Major Resistance & Support: $105K–$107K Trend Channel: Active Short Term Resistance: $112K Key Target Zone: $118K–$122K Invalidation Zone: < $105K Why This Setup Matters This is a textbook breakout retest structure, when previous cycle highs are reclaimed and flipped into support, it often sets the stage for rapid continuation. The fact that BTC is pausing here rather than collapsing suggests the market is preparing for this decision. Break & Retest at this current price zone would: Reinforce bullish market structure Invite trend-following buyers and institutions waiting for confirmation Set up asymmetric long entries targeting $120K Signal broader strength across the crypto market, likely dragging other cryptos upward Future Outlook & Trade Setup If BTC respects the $105K–$107K zone, we anticipate a strong push toward the next major resistance zone between near $120K. Watch for volume and wick rejection to confirm demand. Trade Plan (If Support Holds) Entry: < $107K Short-Term Target: $112K Long-Term Target: $120K+ Invalidation: Break below $105K Final Take Bitcoin is at a pivotal zone where market memory and technical structure converge. If this retest holds, it validates a breakout continuation structure with room to run toward $120K+. If this zone fails, we expect a deeper retest into $100K–$102K or lower.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by GreenZoneCapital
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap: Structural Breakout Aligns with Macros## 📊 TOTAL – Crypto Market Cap Ready for Expansion Phase? --- ### 🧵 **Summary** The crypto market is showing signs of strong macro strength, with TOTAL reclaiming major support levels and forming a structurally bullish setup. Our multi-Fibonacci confluences and hidden bullish divergence point toward the possibility of a sustained breakout and new expansion leg toward \$4.9T and beyond. This bullish view is further supported by powerful macro fundamentals expected over the next 8–10 months, including: * Central bank rate cuts and liquidity expansion * U.S. and EU regulatory clarity (stablecoins, ETFs, MiCA) * Strong institutional adoption and geopolitical shifts * Ethereum scaling upgrades and Bitcoin halving cycle effects Together, these narratives form a compelling foundation for a broad-based market cap expansion. --- ### 📈 **Chart Context** This is a **weekly chart of the TOTAL crypto market cap**, providing a bird’s-eye view of market cycles, macro structure, and capital flow across the entire ecosystem. --- ### 🧠 **Key Technical Observations** * **Reclaim of \$3.02T level** (key support/fib level) signals macro bullish momentum. * Market is forming **higher lows and bullish continuation structures**. * **Support zones:** \$3.02T (reclaimed), \$2.57T (key pivot), * **Resistance/TP zones:** * **TP1 – \$3.75T** (100% trend-based fib + -27% retracement expansion) * **TP2 – \$4.9T** (161.8% trend-based fib + -61.8% retracement expansion) * **TP3 – \$6.9T** (261.8% fib extension target) --- ### 🧶 **Fibonacci Confluences and TP Logic** We’ve employed both **standard Fibonacci retracement** and **trend-based extension** tools to build our target structure. The **1TP and 2TP zones** are defined by confluences between: * **Retracement expansion levels** of **-27% and -61.8%** * **Trend-based extension levels** of **100% and 161.8%** If price reaches 2TP (~~\$4.9T) and **retraces toward the parallel legs** (100%–127%), this would confirm structural symmetry and open the door for a final push toward \*\*TP3 (~~\$6.9T)\*\* — the 261.8% extension. --- ### 🔍 **Indicators** * **MACD Crossover** and rising histogram bars * **Hidden Bullish Divergence** between MACD and price – a classic continuation signal * Weekly trendline breakout from accumulation zone --- ### 🧠 **Fundamental Context** While not directly charted, key macro catalysts like ETF approvals, global liquidity cycles, monetary easing, and increasing institutional interest will likely play a role in the next phase of expansion. This chart captures the structural readiness for that narrative. ## 📊 Fundamental Context (Extended Outlook: Mid-2025 to Early 2026) Below is a detailed breakdown of upcoming macroeconomic, geopolitical, and crypto-specific developments sourced from: * Bitwise Asset Management * Fidelity Digital Assets * ARK Invest * CoinDesk, Reuters, Axios, WSJ * CapitalWars, Cointelegraph, Coinpedia * European Commission (MiCA regulations) * U.S. Congressional records and SEC announcements These events are chronologically aligned to support a structured macro bullish thesis for TOTAL market cap. Bullish Crypto Catalysts (June 2025 – Feb 2026) Summer 2025 (Jun–Aug): Monetary Easing and Regulatory Breakthroughs Central Bank Policy Pivot: By mid-2025, major central banks are shifting toward easier policy. Market expectations indicate the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop tightening and begin cutting interest rates in 2025, with forecasts of up to three rate cuts by end-2025 bitwiseinvestments.eu . Declining inflation and rising unemployment are pushing the Fed in this direction bitwiseinvestments.eu bitwiseinvestments.eu . Easier monetary policy increases global liquidity and risk appetite, historically providing a tailwind for Bitcoin and crypto prices bitwiseinvestments.eu . In fact, global money supply is near record highs, a condition that in past cycles preceded major Bitcoin rallies bitwiseinvestments.eu . Should economic volatility worsen, the Fed has even signaled readiness to deploy fresh stimulus, which would inject more liquidity – “another tailwind for Bitcoin price growth” nasdaq.com . Liquidity and Inflation Trends: With inflation trending down from earlier peaks, central banks like the Fed and European Central Bank are under less pressure to tighten. This opens the door for potential liquidity injections or QE if growth falters. Analysts note a strong correlation (often >84%) between expanding global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price rise nasdaq.com . There is typically a ~2-month lag for liquidity increases to flow into speculative assets like crypto nasdaq.com nasdaq.com . The monetary easing expected in mid-2025 could therefore boost crypto markets by late summer, as new liquidity finds its way into higher-yielding investments. One projection even models Bitcoin retesting all-time highs (~$108K by June 2025) if global liquidity continues upward nasdaq.com – underscoring how “accelerated expansion of global liquidity” often aligns with crypto bull runs nasdaq.com . U.S. Stablecoin Legislation: A landmark regulatory catalyst is anticipated in summer 2025: the first comprehensive U.S. crypto law, focused on stablecoins. The Senate has advanced the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act to a final vote coindesk.com . Passage of this bill (expected by mid-2025) would create a federal framework for stablecoin issuers, resolving a major regulatory gray area coindesk.com . Analysts call this “one of the most important regulatory developments in the history of crypto” – potentially even bigger than the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in impact coindesk.com . By enforcing prudential standards on stablecoin reserves and permitting licensed issuance, the law would legitimize stablecoins as a core part of the financial system. Bitwise predicts that clear rules could trigger a “multi-year crypto bull market,” with stablecoin market cap exploding from ~$245B to $2.5 trillion as mainstream adoption accelerates coindesk.com coindesk.com . A U.S. law would also likely set a global precedent, encouraging other regions to integrate crypto-dollar tokens into commerce. Bottom line: expected stablecoin regulation in summer 2025 is a bullish game-changer, improving market integrity and unlocking new liquidity for crypto markets coindesk.com . Regulatory Clarity in Europe: Meanwhile, Europe’s comprehensive MiCA regulations have fully taken effect as of late 2024, so by summer 2025 the EU has a unified crypto framework. This gives legal clarity to issuers, exchanges, and custodians across the 27-nation bloc pymnts.com skadden.com . The harmonized rules (covering everything from stablecoin reserves to exchange licensing) are expected to expand Europe’s crypto market size by 15–20% in the coming years dailyhodl.com . With MiCA in force, firms can confidently launch crypto products EU-wide, and institutional investors have more protection. U.K. regulators are on a similar path – e.g. recognizing stablecoins as payment instruments – further globalizing the pro-crypto regulatory trend. By mid-2025, this regulatory thaw in major economies is improving investor sentiment. Goldman Sachs recently noted that 91% of crypto firms are gearing up for MiCA compliance – a sign that industry is preparing to scale under clearer rules merklescience.com merklescience.com . Overall, the summer of 2025 marks a turning point: governments are embracing sensible crypto rules (rather than harsh crackdowns), reducing uncertainty and inviting institutional capital off the sidelines. Initial ETF Impact: The first wave of U.S. spot crypto ETFs – approved in late 2023 and January 2024 – will have been trading for over a year by mid-2025 investopedia.com . Their success is already far exceeding expectations: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust amassed a record $52 billion AUM in its first year (the biggest ETF launch in history) coindesk.com , and other Bitcoin funds from Fidelity, ARK, and Bitwise quickly joined the top 20 U.S. ETF launches of all time coindesk.com . These products have unleashed pent-up retail and institutional demand by offering a regulated, convenient vehicle for crypto exposure coindesk.com . By summer 2025, ETF inflows are still robust, and many Wall Street analysts expect a second wave of approvals. Indeed, 2025 is being called “the Year of Crypto ETFs” coindesk.com . Observers predict dozens of new funds – including spot Ether, Solana, and XRP ETFs – could win approval under revamped SEC leadership in the post-2024 election environment coindesk.com . If so, late 2025 could see a broad menu of crypto ETF offerings, widening investor access to the asset class. This steady drumbeat of ETF launches and inflows adds a structural source of buy-pressure under crypto markets throughout 2025. (Notably, Bloomberg data showed over $1.7B poured into spot crypto ETFs in just the first week of 2025, on top of 2024’s flows etf.com .) In short, the ETF effect – “shocking the industry to its core” in year one coindesk.com – is set to grow even stronger in 2025, channeling more traditional capital into crypto. U.S. Political Shift (Post-Election): The outcome of the Nov 2024 U.S. elections is a crucial backdrop by mid-2025. A new administration under President Donald Trump took office in January 2025 and immediately signaled a markedly pro-crypto policy stance. Within his first 100 days, Trump’s appointments to key financial agencies (SEC, CFTC, OCC) effectuated a “180° pivot” in crypto regulation from the prior administration cnbc.com . Industry observers describe a sharp policy reversal – where previously the sector faced hostility, now it’s courted as an engine of innovation. President Trump has publicly vowed to be “the first crypto-president,” hosting crypto industry leaders at the White House and promising to boost digital asset adoption reuters.com . He even floated creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States reuters.com – a striking show of support for Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset (though it remains to be seen if this materializes). More tangibly, regulatory agencies have begun rolling back onerous rules. For example, the SEC under new leadership scrapped a prior accounting guideline that made bank crypto custody prohibitively expensive reuters.com . And the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has “paved the way” for banks to engage in crypto activities like custody and stablecoin issuance reuters.com . These changes in Washington brighten the outlook for crypto markets: with regulatory uncertainty fading, U.S. institutions feel more confident to participate. In essence, by mid-2025 the world’s largest capital market (the U.S.) is shifting from impeding crypto to embracing it, a narrative change that cannot be overstated in its bullish significance coindesk.com reuters.com . Geopolitical Easing and BRICS Actions: Global macro conditions in summer 2025 may also improve due to geopolitical developments. If major conflicts (like the Russia-Ukraine war) de-escalate or move toward resolution by late 2024 or 2025, it would remove a key source of risk-off sentiment. Lower geopolitical risk and easing of war-driven commodity shocks would help cool inflation (especially energy prices) and bolster global growth – factors that support risk asset rallies (crypto included). On another front, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa + new members) are continuing their de-dollarization agenda in 2025. At the BRICS summit in October 2024, they discussed creating a new gold-backed reserve currency (“the Unit”) as an alternative to the U.S. dollar investingnews.com . They also announced a BRICS blockchain-based payment network (“BRICS Bridge”) to connect their financial systems via CBDCs, bypassing Western networks investingnews.com . Going into 2025, these initiatives are expected to progress (with Russia currently chairing BRICS). While a full-fledged BRICS currency may be years away (and faces hurdles moderndiplomacy.eu ), the bloc’s move to settle more trade in non-USD currencies is already underway (by 2023, roughly 20% of oil trades were in other currencies) investingnews.com . Implication: A shift toward a more multi-polar currency world could weaken U.S. dollar dominance over time investingnews.com . For crypto, this trend is intriguing – as nations seek dollar alternatives, Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, supranational asset may rise. In sanctioned or economically volatile countries, both elites and the public might accelerate adoption of crypto for cross-border value storage. For example, U.S. sanctions on Russia and China have already catalyzed talk of reserve diversification investingnews.com . Fidelity analysts note that “rising inflation, currency debasement and fiscal deficits” globally are making Bitcoin strategically attractive for even nation-states and central banks coindesk.com coindesk.com . Summing up: a backdrop of improving geopolitical stability (if realized) plus a weakening dollar regime provides a bullish macro and narrative case for borderless cryptocurrencies as we enter the second half of 2025. Fall 2025 (Sep–Nov): Institutional Inflows, Adoption & Tech Upgrades Surging Institutional Adoption: By autumn 2025, the cumulative effect of regulatory clarity and market maturation is a wave of institutional adoption unlike any prior cycle. In traditional finance, major U.S. banks and brokers are cautiously but steadily entering the crypto arena. Reuters reports that Wall Street banks are now receiving “green lights” from regulators to expand into crypto services, after years of hesitance reuters.com reuters.com . Many top banks have been internally testing crypto trading and custody via pilot programs reuters.com . As one example, Charles Schwab’s CEO said in May 2025 that regulator signals are “flashing pretty green” for large firms, and confirmed Schwab plans to offer spot crypto trading to clients within a year reuters.com . Banks like BNY Mellon, State Street, and Citigroup – which collectively manage trillions – are expected to roll out crypto custody solutions by 2025, often via partnerships with crypto-native custodians dlnews.com . The OCC has explicitly authorized banks to handle crypto custody and stablecoins (under proper safeguards), removing a key barrier reuters.com . And the SEC’s friendlier stance under new leadership means banks no longer face punitive capital charges for holding digital assets reuters.com . The net effect is that by late 2025, institutional-grade crypto infrastructure is falling into place. More pension funds, endowments, and asset managers can allocate to crypto through familiar channels (regulated custodians, ETFs, prime brokers). Even conservative banking giants are warming up: Bank of America’s CEO stated the bank “will embrace cryptocurrencies for payments if regulations permit” and hinted at possibly launching a BOA stablecoin for settlement reuters.com . Likewise, Fidelity and BlackRock’s crypto units are expanding offerings after seeing outsized demand. This institutional legitimization dramatically expands the pool of potential investors in crypto markets, supporting a higher total market capitalization. Crypto ETF Expansion: In Q4 2025, the roster of crypto-based ETFs and funds is likely to broaden further. As noted, analysts foresee 50+ crypto ETFs by end of 2025 under the pro-industry U.S. regulatory regime coindesk.com . By fall, we may see Ethereum spot ETFs (building on the successful Bitcoin products) and even funds for large-cap altcoins. For instance, Nate Geraci of The ETF Store predicts spot Solana and XRP ETFs are on the horizon in the U.S. coindesk.com . Internationally, Canada and Europe already have multiple crypto ETPs – their continued growth adds to global inflows. With a year of performance history by late ’25, crypto ETFs will likely start seeing allocations from more conservative institutions (insurance firms, corporate treasuries, etc.) that needed to observe initially. Fidelity’s strategists noted that in 2024 much of the ETF buying came from retail and independent advisors, but 2025 could bring uptake from hedge funds, RIAs, and pensions as comfort grows coindesk.com coindesk.com . In summary, fall 2025 should witness accelerating capital inflows via investment vehicles, as crypto solidifies its place in mainstream portfolios. This sustained demand – “2025’s flows will easily surpass 2024’s” according to one strategist coindesk.com – provides a steady bid under crypto asset prices, reinforcing a bullish trend. Nation-State and Sovereign Adoption: A notable development to watch in late 2025 is the entry of nation-states and public institutions into Bitcoin. Fidelity Digital Assets published a report calling 2025 a potential “game changer in terms of bitcoin adoption”, predicting that more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and treasuries will buy BTC as a strategic reserve asset coindesk.com . The rationale is that with rising inflation and heavy debt loads, governments face currency debasement and financial instability, making Bitcoin an attractive hedge coindesk.com . By Q4 2025, we could see early signs of this trend. For example, there are rumors that Russia and Brazil have explored holding Bitcoin reserves fortune.com , and Middle Eastern sovereign funds flush with petrodollars might quietly accumulate crypto as diversification. In the U.S., President Trump and crypto-friendly lawmakers like Senator Cynthia Lummis have openly discussed establishing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve or adding BTC to Treasury holdings coindesk.com . Lummis even introduced a “Bitcoin Reserve” bill in 2024, which if enacted would set a precedent for national adoption coindesk.com . While such bold moves might not happen overnight, even small allocations by governments or central banks would be symbolically massive. It would validate crypto’s role as “digital gold” and potentially ignite FOMO among other nations (a game theory dynamic Fidelity’s report alludes to). Thus by late 2025, any announcements of central banks buying Bitcoin or countries mining/holding crypto (similar to El Salvador’s earlier example) could spur a bullish frenzy. At minimum, the expectation of this “sovereign bid” provides a narrative supporting the market. As Fidelity’s analysts put it: not owning some Bitcoin may soon be seen as a greater risk for governments than owning it coindesk.com . Ethereum & Crypto Tech Upgrades: The latter part of 2025 is also packed with technological catalysts in the crypto sector, which can boost investor optimism. Chief among these is Ethereum’s roadmap milestones. Ethereum core developers plan to deliver major scaling improvements by end-2025 as part of “The Surge” phase bitrue.com . This includes fully rolling out sharding – splitting the blockchain into parallel “shards” – combined with widespread Layer-2 rollups, aiming to increase throughput to 100,000+ transactions per second bitrue.com . If Ethereum achieves this by Q4 2025, it would vastly lower fees and increase capacity, enabling a new wave of decentralized application growth. For users, that means faster, cheaper transactions; for the market, it means Ethereum becomes more valuable as utilization can skyrocket without bottlenecks. Progress is well underway: an intermediate upgrade (EIP-4844 “proto-danksharding”) was implemented earlier to boost Layer-2 efficiency, and the next major upgrade (code-named Pectra) is slated for Q1 2025 focusing on validator improvements and blob data throughput fidelitydigitalassets.com . After that, the final sharding implementation is expected. By late 2025, Ethereum’s evolution – including MEV mitigation (The Scourge) and Verkle trees for lighter nodes (The Verge) – should make the network more scalable, secure, and decentralized bitrue.com . These upgrades are bullish for the ecosystem: a more scalable Ethereum can host more DeFi, NFT, and gaming activity, attracting capital and users from traditional tech. Investors may speculate on ETH demand rising with network activity. Beyond Ethereum, other protocols (Solana, Cardano, Layer-2s like Arbitrum, etc.) also have roadmap milestones during this period, potentially improving their value propositions. Overall, the tech backdrop in late 2025 is one of significant improvement, which supports a positive market outlook – the infrastructure will be ready for mainstream scale just as interest returns. Bitcoin Halving Aftermath: Although the Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, its bullish impact historically materializes with a lag of 12-18 months. That puts late 2025 into early 2026 right in the window when the post-halving cycle may reach a euphoric phase. By fall 2025, Bitcoin’s supply issuance will have been at half its prior rate for ~18 months, potentially leading to a supply-demand squeeze if demand surges. ARK Invest notes that previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) all coincided with the early stages of major bull markets ark-invest.com . Indeed, by Q4 2025 we may see this pattern repeating. ARK’s analysts observed in late 2024 that Bitcoin remained roughly on track with its four-year cycle and expressed “optimism about prospects for the next 6–12 months” following the April 2024 halving ark-invest.com . That optimism appears well-founded if macro conditions and adoption trends align as discussed. By November 2025, Bitcoin could be approaching or exceeding its previous all-time high ( ~$69K from 2021) – some crypto analysts foresee six-figure prices during this cycle. Importantly, a rising Bitcoin tide tends to lift the entire crypto market cap. Late 2025 could see a broad rally across altcoins, often referred to as “altseason,” as new retail and institutional money, emboldened by Bitcoin’s strength, diversifies into higher-beta crypto assets. The expectation of the halving-driven bull cycle can itself become a self-fulfilling sentiment booster: investors position ahead of it, providing additional buy pressure. In summary, fall 2025 is poised to be the crescendo of the Bitcoin halving cycle, with historical analogues (2013, 2017, 2021) suggesting a powerful uptrend in crypto prices. Reduced BTC supply + peak cycle FOMO + all the fundamental drivers (ETF flows, low rates, tech upgrades) make this timeframe particularly conducive to a bullish market cap expansion. Winter 2025–26 (Dec–Feb): Peak Momentum and Continued Tailwinds Bull Market Momentum: Entering winter 2025/26, the crypto market could be in full bull mode. If the above developments play out, total crypto market capitalization may be approaching new highs by late 2025, driven by strong fundamentals and investor FOMO. Historically, the final leg of crypto bull markets sees parabolic gains and surging liquidity inflows. We might witness that in Dec 2025 – Feb 2026: exuberant sentiment, mainstream media coverage of Bitcoin “breaking records,” and increased retail participation. Unlike the 2017 and 2021 peaks, however, this cycle has far greater institutional involvement, which could imply more sustainable capital inflows (and possibly a larger magnitude of inflows). Key macro factors are likely to remain supportive through early 2026: central banks that began easing in 2024-25 may continue to hold rates low or even consider renewed asset purchases if economies are soft. For instance, if a mild U.S. recession hits in late 2025, the Fed and peers could respond with quantitative easing or liquidity facilities, effectively “printing” money that often finds its way into asset markets, including crypto nasdaq.com . China’s PBoC could also inject stimulus to boost growth, adding to global liquidity. Such actions would prolong the “risk-on” environment into 2026, delaying any end to the crypto uptrend. Additionally, global equity markets are projected to be strong in this scenario (buoyed by low rates and easing geopolitical tensions), and crypto’s correlation with equities means a rising stock tide lifts crypto too – as was observed in May 2025 when stock rallies coincided with BTC and ETH jumps blockchain.news blockchain.news . Investor Sentiment and Retail Revival: By early 2026, investor sentiment toward crypto could be the most bullish since 2021. With clear regulatory frameworks, high-profile endorsements (even governments buying in), and tech narratives (Web3, AI+blockchain, etc.), the stage is set for a positive feedback loop. Retail investors who largely sat out during the harsh 2022–23 bear market may fully return, spurred by “fear of missing out” as they see Bitcoin and popular altcoins climbing. This broadening of participation (from hedge funds down to everyday investors globally) increases market breadth and can drive total market cap to climactic heights. Notably, the availability of user-friendly investment onramps – e.g. spot crypto ETFs through any brokerage, crypto offerings integrated in fintech apps and banks – makes it much easier for average investors to allocate to crypto in 2025-26 than in past cycles. The removal of friction means inflows can ramp up faster and larger. Social media and pop culture hype also tend to peak in late-stage bulls; we might see Bitcoin and Ethereum becoming water-cooler talk again, drawing in new demographics. All of this contributes to strong sentiment and capital inflows in winter 2025/26, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Continued Policy and Geopolitical Tailwinds: The policy landscape is expected to remain a tailwind into 2026. In the U.S., if the pro-crypto Trump administration stays aligned with its promises, we could see additional positive actions: perhaps tax clarity for digital assets, streamlined ETF approvals for more crypto categories, or even federal guidelines for banks to hold crypto on balance sheets. Such steps would further normalize crypto within the financial system. Regulatory coordination internationally might also improve – for example, G20 nations in 2025 have been working on a global crypto reporting framework and stablecoin standards, which, once implemented, reduce the risk of harsh crackdowns in any major economy. On the geopolitical front, the BRICS de-dollarization efforts might bear first fruit by 2026, such as increased trade settled in yuan, gold, or even Bitcoin. If Saudi Arabia (a new BRICS invitee) starts pricing some oil in non-USD, that could weaken dollar liquidity at the margins, and some of that displaced value might flow to alternative stores like crypto or gold. Additionally, by 2026 the world will be looking ahead to the next U.S. Presidential election cycle (2028) – typically, in the lead-up, administrations prefer supportive economic conditions. This could mean fiscal stimulus or at least no new financial regulations that rock markets, implying a benign policy environment for risk assets. In Europe, 2026 will see MiCA fully operational and possibly updated with new provisions for DeFi and NFTs, further integrating the crypto market. In sum, early 2026 should carry forward many of 2025’s positive drivers – ample liquidity, regulatory support, and growing mainstream acceptance – giving little reason to suspect an abrupt end to the bullish trend during this window. Bitcoin Halving Cycle Peak: If history rhymes, the crypto market might reach a cycle peak somewhere around late 2025 or early 2026. Past bull cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) peaked roughly 12-18 months after the halving; a similar timeframe would put a possible top in the Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 period. That could mean Bitcoin at unprecedented price levels and total crypto market cap in multi-trillions, barring any unforeseen shocks. ARK Invest’s analysis as of late 2024 remained optimistic that Bitcoin was “in sync with historical cycles” and poised for strong performance into 2025 ark-invest.com . By early 2026, those cycle dynamics (diminished new supply vs. surging demand) might reach a crescendo. One metric to watch is the stock-to-flow or issuance rate – post-halving Bitcoin’s inflation rate is below 1%, lower than gold’s, which can drive the digital gold narrative to its zenith at this point. Moreover, Ethereum’s upcoming transition to a deflationary issuance (with EIP-1559 fee burns and Proof-of-Stake) means ETH could also be seeing declining supply into 2026, potentially amplifying its price if demand spikes. Thus, both of the top crypto assets would have increasing scarcity dynamics during the period when interest is highest – a recipe for a dramatic run-up. Importantly, capital rotations within crypto during peak phases often send smaller altcoins skyrocketing (as investors seek outsized gains), temporarily boosting total market cap beyond just Bitcoin’s contribution. All told, the early 2026 period could represent the euphoric apex of this cycle’s bull market, supported by solid macro and fundamental fuel laid in the preceding months. Even if volatility will be high, the overall outlook through February 2026 remains strongly bullish for crypto’s total market capitalization, given the confluence of loose monetary conditions, favorable policy shifts, geopolitical diversification into crypto, institutional FOMO, and major network upgrades powering the narrative. ✨ Philosophical Reflection In the ever-unfolding rhythm of cycles—accumulation, expansion, distribution, and reset—crypto mirrors the deeper architecture of nature and consciousness. Just as seeds lie dormant in winter awaiting the kiss of spring, so too does capital bide its time in the shadows before surging into momentum. The Fibonacci spirals found in shells, storms, and galaxies reappear in price action—offering not just numbers, but a language of emergence. What we witness in the TOTAL market cap is not just a breakout—it is a reawakening. A collective pulse of belief, liquidity, and intention. In this confluence of technical geometry and macroeconomic tides, the market becomes more than price—it becomes a story, a symbol, a signal. We don’t just analyze this chart—we read it like a sacred map, charting the ascent of value, vision, and velocity.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by BitonGroup
FlokiCoin Technical Analysis – Buy the Dip OpportunityFlokiCoin is currently trading at a critical support region, aligning with both structural support and the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA). This area marks a key inflection point for price action, as it has historically acted as a springboard for bullish continuation. The confluence of the 200 EMA and the channel low support significantly increases the importance of this level, as it represents a major decision point for market participants. Despite the recent corrective move, the broader market structure remains bullish. Price action has been consistently printing higher highs and higher lows over the past several weeks, a hallmark of an established uptrend. The recent bounce from this confluence support zone can be considered another higher low in this bullish sequence, suggesting that the pullback may have already found its base. A successful retest of this area has already occurred, leading to a rebound that reinforces the idea of ongoing buyer interest. If price continues to hold above this zone, it increases the probability of FlokiCoin resuming its upward trajectory. The key target from here is the channel high resistance, which is located at 1,478 satoshis. This level serves as the primary objective for bullish momentum, and a break above it could open the door for a stronger expansion move. In conclusion, as long as price holds above the current support confluence, this pullback can be interpreted as a buying opportunity within the context of the existing trend. FlokiCoin remains in a bullish posture technically, and the current setup favors a continuation to the upside toward higher levels.
Long
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
Is the momentum in Bitcoin EXHAUSTED? Or not yet?In recent days, Bitcoin has been actively updating its ATH almost daily. Everyone is already predicting $150,000 by the end of the month. 🔥 But is everything really so rosy? Let's take a closer look! During the powerful growth over the past month, two gaps have formed below us. The first is at $97,368–102,867. The second is at $85,158–93,232. And as we know, in 99% of cases, gaps close sooner or later. 📊 Technical: Liquidity zones - as we know, the price moves from liquidity to liquidity, which pushes it in one direction or another. Right now, there is practically no liquidity above us; it is all concentrated below. Only a move to $99,000 can now liquidate more than a billion dollars in longs. I think short sellers' stops are much higher, at $120,000 and above. There is no point in placing them here when there is still no confirmation of a trend reversal. ⚙️ Metrics and indicators: Volume - as I say in every review - is not a new growth impulse. It is a technical rebound. It has been moving at reduced volumes all along, which have only continued to decline. MACD - has already given a bearish crossover , but this is certainly not the best indicator on such a TF. However, in combination with other indicators, it can predict a trend reversal at the right time. DSRZ - shows the volume of interest at certain levels, and now we see that the first block of interest is concentrated in the $106,000–104,000 zone. These are the first support levels, from which I will expect the first rebound if the correction continues. Liquidation Levels - as I said, all liquidity is now concentrated at the bottom. Bitcoin is very overheated and it's time to cool it down. Many think that it will be overheated when, as in the previous cycle, funding will be 0.2 and above. But this is a different cycle, a different time, different traders, and different rules. This has already been proven more than once in this cycle. 📌 Conclusion: I have said many times that we should not expect much from this momentum and that it is purely a technical rebound. And if something does not push us sharply upward now to bring in retail, we can definitely not expect it before the fall. Summer is coming, investors and traders will close their positions and go on vacation. The market will be quiet. So, personally, I am leaning back in my chair, expecting a price of at least $85,000, and watching what happens next. 🥃
Short
by Crypto_Inside_trading
1
Liquidity Pools Becoming Dark OceansThe foreign exchange market and the cryptocurrency market differ fundamentally in liquidity, participant makeup, and incentive structures. The FX market is characterized by deep liquidity and a broad spectrum of institutional participants, which together support global financial stability. By contrast, the cryptocurrency market—especially for new tokens and meme coins—is driven largely by profit-seeking agents without built-in mechanisms to ensure orderly trading. This disparity raises the prospect that, as crypto liquidity pools expand, opportunistic actors may exploit them in ways that threaten both crypto markets and the wider economy. The FX market is the largest financial market in the world, with average daily turnover of US \$7.5 trillion in April 2022—a 14 percent increase from three years earlier . This volume is supported by major banks, central banks, hedge funds, multinational corporations, and retail investors. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market’s average daily trading volume in Q1 2025 was US \$146 billion, and spot volume stood at about US \$51 billion per day . The much shallower depth in many crypto tokens makes them more vulnerable to price swings and manipulation by large orders or coordinated schemes. Major FX market makers such as JPMorgan, UBS, and Deutsche Bank operate under rigorous risk-management frameworks that promote orderly trading. Central banks and corporate hedgers further contribute to stability by smoothing excessive volatility and hedging currency exposures . These participants balance profit objectives with responsibilities toward market integrity. In crypto markets, however, large holders or “whales” typically focus on maximizing returns. Without formal obligations to provide liquidity, their trades can trigger extreme price movements, especially in tokens with limited float. Meme coins highlight these dynamics vividly. They often attract speculative investors through hype, driving rapid price rallies. Once insiders or developers decide to exit, they can execute “rug pulls,” dumping their holdings and crashing the token’s value. Chainalysis data shows that ERC-20 tokens involved in pump-and-dump schemes yielded average profits of about US \$2,672 per dump . In July 2023, an exploit on the Multichain bridge—akin to an insider-driven rug pull—resulted in over US \$125 million drained from DeFi liquidity pools . As crypto liquidity pools grow, they risk becoming “dark oceans” where opacity and profit-driven agents dominate. Unlike the FX market—where large trades prompt interbank controls and regulatory checks—crypto markets often lack coordinated circuit breakers. Malicious actors can engage in wash trading, spoofing, and layering with little fear of immediate enforcement, amplifying volatility and undermining confidence. If corporations and financial institutions increase their crypto exposure without adequate safeguards, these vulnerabilities could spill into the broader economy. Market instability might trigger margin calls, liquidity shortages, and balance-sheet disruptions. State or non-state actors could exploit crypto’s pseudonymous nature to influence currency flows, evade sanctions, or engineer financial shocks with real-world consequences.
by mertenes3
DOT / USDT - Complex H & SMorning fellow traders, Looking into this market lately, and after the previous short term uptrend the coins have been consolidating a little bit. When looking at DOT / USDT pair we can see something like a cup & handle easier that's starting to develop a handle, but I believe it's a complex head & shoulders. Take a look at it, I think that before any major move down, creating a possible spring, we could see another move to the upside. Trade thirsty, my friends.
Long
by mr_willmedina
Toncoin 5X Lev. Full PREMIUM Trade-Numbers (PP: 1480%)This chart setup with leverage originally came to my attention around 15-April. Seeing the same market conditions now after some consolidation and a small higher low makes the setup stronger. This is an easy one. I think it has a good chance of success and the timing is about right. Just make sure your position is safe (low leverage) and you should do fine. Full trade-numbers below: _____ LONG TONUSDT Leverage: 5X Entry levels: 1) $3.10 2) $2.85 3) $2.65 Targets: 1) $3.23 2) $3.75 3) $4.28 4) $4.62 5) $5.32 6) $6.01 7) $7.01 8) $8.28 9) $9.68 10) $10.5 11) $11.9 Stop-loss: Close weekly below $2.50 Potential profits: 1480% Capital allocation: 4% _____ Leveraged trading can be a lot about position managing and capital allocation, if you are going for those very small and short-term swings. If you are looking for long-term trade setups like I do, timing and entry prices are king. The top priority. I think both are excellent here but you know anything goes. While I like a high accuracy/hit rate, the market is not without risk and anything can happen at any time. Not all trades are won but it can be good this time. With the right capital allocation, mindset and planning, you can't go wrong. As the market turns bullish, as soon as the up-move starts, you have secured an awesome position. Thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
btcusd 15mThis updated Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart expands on the previous one, introducing a clearer risk management structure by adding a "register level" — a deeper demand/support zone. Let’s break it down: --- 📉 Updated Chart Breakdown (BTC/USD – 15 Min) 🔻 Register Level (Stronger Demand Zone) Zone: ~$106,600–$106,800 This zone caught a previous wick and bounce, suggesting it's a stronger support if the price drops below the immediate entry level. It represents a last defense zone before deeper sell-offs. 🟩 Entry Level Zone Zone: ~$107,300–$107,600 Same as the previous chart. It’s still valid but is now more clearly shown as a potential reaction zone, not the ultimate bottom. 🔶 Support Point Zone: ~$108,300 Where price was rejected before. This level will likely be a key confirmation breakout if hit again. 🎯 Target Level (Take Profit) Level: ~$110,250–$110,400 The trade setup aims for a strong upside continuation into this resistance area. --- 📌 What’s Different in This Chart vs. the Previous BTC Chart? Element Previous Chart Updated Chart Register Level ❌ Not Shown ✅ Shown (strong support) Support Level Label ✅ Same ✅ Same Entry Zone Depth Mid-level Now shows fallback area Risk Management Clarity Medium ✅ Much clearer Trade Setup Bullish Reversal Bullish Reversal w/ zone confidence --- ✅ Key Trading Insight This chart provides better risk control by identifying a lower register zone that gives traders the ability to: Wait for a deeper test before entering. Add confidence to the trade if price bounces hard from this zone. Place tighter or more informed stop-losses just below this level. --- Would you like a side-by-side comparison of this BTC setup with the earlier Gold setup you shared — in terms of risk/reward, entry logic, and strength of signals?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Alpha_Gold_Trader