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CADJPY at strong resistance in the Daily chartHistorical context: +60% up since 2020 The CAD/JPY pair has demonstrated a remarkable upward trajectory since March 2020, recording an impressive increase of over 60%. This surge can be partly attributed to Japan's prolonged monetary policy, which maintained negative interest rates while many other countries raised their rates to combat inflation following the pandemic. Recently, the Bank of Japan signalled a significant shift in its monetary policy, indicating its intention to begin raising interest rates. This development has provided a boost to the Japanese Yen. The current pullback represents the sharpest decline observed since the onset of the uptrend in 2020, potentially signalling a change in market direction. This analysis will delve into the recent price action, loss of key support levels, and critical areas to monitor. Technical Perspective: Key Indicators Break Below the 200-Period Moving Average The recent breach below the 200-period moving average signifies a weakening uptrend. This movement suggests a potential reversal in the prevailing direction, accompanied by increasing selling pressure. The 200-period moving average is often regarded as a critical threshold separating bull markets from bear markets, making a drop below this level particularly significant. Accelerating Downward Movement The decline observed between 10 July and 5 August marks the steepest drop in CAD/JPY since 2020. Most notably, this downturn has effectively engulfed all gains made by CAD/JPY over the previous 12 months. The acceleration of this downward movement underscores significant selling interest in the pair. Fibonacci Analysis and Price Structure Following the breakout of the SMA200 on the daily chart, the price has retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level of the recent downtrend. The 50% level is often viewed as a critical area of interest that can present opportunities aligned with the primary trend. The confluence of the 50% level with the 200-period moving average marks a pivotal point for sellers at this juncture. Possible Sell Scenario Given the breach of the 200-period moving average and the prevailing price structure indicating a potential reversal, a selling opportunity may arise if the pair continues to exhibit weakness. A sell signal could be triggered if the price breaks below the uptrend line on the daily chart (highlighted in black). Initial targets for this sell-off could include the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 105.7, with an extended target around the 103.00 region. A stop loss should be established if the price demonstrates a clear breakout above the range defined by the 50% Fibonacci level and the SMA200 on the daily chart, situated around 111.20. The CAD/JPY pair is beginning to exhibit signs of exhaustion following a prolonged uptrend. The breach below the 200-period moving average and the testing of Fibonacci levels suggest a potential period of correction or reversal ahead. Close monitoring of price action around the 108.229 and 110.258 levels will be crucial in validating any potential short entries. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Short
by Marketscom
Japan’s consumer spending slips, yen extends gainsThe Japanese yen has posted gains on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 152.38, down 0.36% on the day. The yen has taken traders on a roller-coaster ride this week, plunging 2% on Wednesday and rebounding on Thursday with a 1.1% gain. Japan’s household spending fell by 1.1% y/y in September, following a 1.9% drop in August. This was better than the market estimate of -2.1%. Household spending has declined in 10 of the past 12 months, as consumer confidence fell in October and inflation is relatively high. On a monthly basis, household spending decreased 1.3%, after a strong 2% gain in August. This beat the market estimate of 0.7%. The weak yen is also weighing on consumers, who are being squeezed as their purchasing power has fallen. The yen fell to three-month lows this week against the dollar and if the downswing continues, the Bank of Japan will be under pressure to respond with a rate hike. Although consumers are holding tight on the purse strings, wages have been rising and the BoJ is hopeful that will translate into increased consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. Consumer spending makes up more than half of the economy and BoJ is unlikely to make further rate hikes until it sees stronger consumer spending. The markets don’t expect a rate hike until early 2025. The Federal Reserve didn’t surprise anyone with a 25-basis point rate cut on Wednesday. This is the second cut in the easing cycle after an oversized 50-bp chop in September. The vote was unanimous and unlike the Bank of Japan, the Fed has been transparent and telegraphed its plan to cut rates ahead of the meeting. The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates in the coming meeting and will be keeping a close eye on inflation and employment reports. USD/JPY faces resistance at 153.44 and 154.17 152.16 and 151.43 are the next support levels
by OANDA
EURJPY Sellers In Panic! BUY! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the EURJPY next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 164.32 Bias - Bullish Safe Stop Loss - 163.70 Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 165.53 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
EUR/NZD Forecast: Short Position Setup📉 **EUR/NZD Forecast: Short Position Setup** 🔹 EUR/NZD is currently trading at **1.79561**, with a potential move within a range targeting **1.76111** as a key downside objective. Tracking these levels closely could reveal strong indications for market direction. 🔍 **Key Levels to Watch:** - **Immediate Resistance:** 1.79849 - **Support Zone:** 1.79029 - **Target Range:** 1.79846 to 1.76111 📊 **Forecast Details:** If the price reaches and holds below **1.79849**, this could confirm a continuation of the downward trend. Breaking through **1.79029** as support strengthens this setup, paving the way toward our primary target of **1.76111**. 💡 **Market Insight:** The bearish outlook suggests watching for potential pullbacks near resistance before the price resumes its trend downward. 👉 Do you agree with this EUR/NZD setup? Share your thoughts below! #EURNZD #ForexForecast #ForexTrading #Pipnest #MarketAnalysis
Short
by pipnest
GBPJPY LONG SETUP Smart Money Play for GBPJPY With GBPJPY showing signs of support in the current range, the smart play would involve waiting for confirmation of continued strength before entering long, or positioning for a minor pullback in line with the recent shift in momentum. 1. Identify Key Support Zone • Price is currently testing the 100 SMA on the 4-hour chart and is positioned near two previous significant turning points. This level could act as a pivotal support if buyers re-enter the market here, as it has been a strong level in the past. • The presence of the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud just below price suggests that any break lower could see further downside, but above it, we may be primed for a continuation to the upside. 2. Volume and Trend Alignment on the Daily • With the ADL, CMF, and CMO still positive, underlying buying pressure remains intact. The positive daily Ichimoku cloud further confirms a bullish trend, especially since price is above the cloud and the lagging span is supportive above price. • Daily RSI being above 50 also supports a bullish outlook, though the recent fall indicates a need for confirmation that buyers are indeed stepping in at this level. 3. Monitor Lower Timeframes for Pullback Confirmation or Reversal • 4-Hour Chart: Wait for bullish confirmation to resume on the 4-hour MACD or RSI. If the RSI and MACD indicators start to show signs of upward momentum, it could signal that buyers are actively defending this level, supporting a bullish entry. • 2-Hour MACD: The MACD remains dark red, signaling current downside momentum. For a higher-probability entry, wait until MACD shifts lighter or flips entirely, indicating a possible end to the pullback. 4. Confluence with Bollinger Bands and Divergence on Lower Timeframes • The price recently touched the upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands, indicating a high point, and is now testing the 20 SMA. This setup suggests we are at a consolidation or retracement phase. • On the 15-minute chart, RSI divergence (price making higher lows while RSI makes lower lows) could hint at a potential bullish reversal at this support zone, but higher timeframe confirmation is needed. Trade Idea Given these signals, there are two potential smart-money plays: 1. Long Continuation: • Wait for the 4-hour indicators (MACD and RSI) to confirm a bullish reversal. Enter long if RSI begins to rise again and MACD shows green momentum, ideally with a close above the 100 SMA on the 4-hour as confirmation of strength. • Place stop-loss below the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud or recent support levels, aiming for an initial target near 199 or the upper Bollinger Band on the daily. 2. Short Pullback Trade (if price breaks 4-hour support): • If price breaks and closes below the 100 SMA and the lower edge of the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud, consider a short entry targeting the daily 20 SMA or the 197 level as interim support. • Monitor CMF and ADL for signs of waning buying pressure, as well as confirmation from MACD on lower timeframes turning darker again, supporting a continued down move. Summary of Smart Money Play 1. Trend Bias: Overall bullish on the daily, but cautious of the pullback on the 4-hour and lower timeframes. 2. Setup: Wait for pullback completion or a break of support for bearish continuation. 3. Entry Trigger: Use 4-hour MACD and RSI as signals to confirm reversal to the upside or continued weakness. 4. Risk Management: Place stops below significant support zones, targeting recent highs or lower support levels in line with the trend.
Long
by Shivsaransh1
EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart Breakdown🚀 EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart Breakdown 🚀 Current Price Levels: Right now, EUR/USD is around 1.0777. Key levels to watch include 1.08108 (resistance) and 1.07463 (support). These levels could be crucial for breakouts or reversals. Recent Trend: We had a significant drop, followed by a slight recovery that seems to be consolidating. It looks like price is moving within a range between 1.07463 and 1.08108. Potential Moves: Bullish: If we break above 1.08108, it could signal more upside momentum. Bearish: If it drops below 1.07463, the downtrend might continue, targeting lower levels like 1.07178. For now, it's in a bit of a consolidation zone. Keep an eye on those support and resistance levels to catch any big moves! 📊👀
by mubeenbinsaddiq