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EUR/USD: Be careful with last minute Holiday shoppingHello traders My last idea worked out profitably. +85 pips. We are entering the last 24-36 hours of meaningful trading. Keep in mind, the Asian markets may not be so invested in the Holidays and may take advantage of the low liquidity in the Western markets. However, levels are levels, especially in the most liquid currency pair, EUR/USD. Take a good look at the monthly levels and how it translate on the lower time frame charts. I base most of my trades on monthly/weekly levels and fine tune it on the 1 to 4 hour charts. Fundamentally, the USA finalized the spending bill. PCE came in a tad lower at 0.1% As I have mentioned in my idea the chaos is back in Washington D.C. even before the inauguration of the President elect Elonald Trump. What happened this week is unconscionable. The blatant power struggle between Trump, Musk and our elected representatives in Congress has started. Mark my words, Trump will dump his unelected co-president sooner than later. He got elected and does not share the limelight with anyone. Remember how he broke hundreds of years of protocol and walked ahead of the late Queen Elizabeth 2nd during a State visit? The other significant development was how 38 GOP members of the House defied Trump and voted against his instruction to raise the debt limit ceiling. With a razor thin majority in the House, Trump is going to have a hard time implementing his agenda, so fasten your seat belts. All in all, the EURO is fundamentally weaker than the USD but investors do not like uncertainty. Just look at the strength of the JPY as a safe have when adverse geopolitical developments happen. I initiated a short position from 1.0442 and will monitor the 1.0419 level if it breaks, down to 1.0384 level for another long position. Best of luck. Happy Holidays.
by jvrfxalerts
2
EURUSD POSSIBLE SELLThe market is currently testing the current Daily 0.5Fib area. Based on 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern via price action. We could see SELLERS coming in strong should the current level hold. Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
Short
by WiLLProsperForex
1
USDJPY💡The chart shows technical analysis of the USD/JPY currency pair on the daily time frame (D1). If the price remains within the liquidity zone, there may be an opportunity to sell with a target towards support levels (S1 or S2). If the price breaks the liquidity zone to the upside, it may head to the next resistance (R.1). MACD indicator: It indicates clear upward momentum, which supports the continued rise to resistance areas. However, you should constantly monitor the indicator, especially if the green bars start decreasing or red bars appear, to identify any possible reversal. We wait for the selling momentum to start. ⛔️It is not investment advice for educational purposes only.
by Adhamcurrency
GBP/USD - LONG POSITION I believe that GBP/USD is presenting a strong buying opportunity based on my analysis. The currency pair is currently rejecting the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which is a significant technical indicator suggesting a potential reversal or retracement. This level often acts as a key decision zone where buyers regain control after a pullback. To validate this setup, I am closely monitoring the price action for strong wick rejections and bullish candlestick patterns, as these are reliable signals of a reversal. If these confirmations occur, I plan to enter a buy position with a well-defined stop-loss placed just below the 78.6% level to minimize risk. This trade setup offers an excellent risk-to-reward ratio of 1:4, meaning for every 1% of risk, there is the potential to gain 4%. Such a favourable ratio ensures that even if some trades fail, the profitable ones outweigh the losses. Additionally, I am considering other confluences to strengthen my confidence in this trade. These include: 1. Momentum Indicators: Observing divergence on the RSI or MACD for signs of bullish momentum. 2. Trend Continuation: Ensuring the broader trend aligns with this reversal; for example, a higher timeframe uptrend would support this buy idea. 3. Volume Analysis: Looking for increased buying volume around this level, which often signals institutional activity. It’s also crucial to stay updated on any upcoming economic data releases or news events that could impact GBP or USD, such as interest rate decisions, inflation reports, or geopolitical developments. These events could either reinforce or disrupt the technical outlook. Overall, I believe this trade has a solid probability of success if the technical and fundamental conditions align. By sticking to the plan and maintaining discipline with risk management, this setup has the potential to be highly rewarding.
Long
by CRYPTO_CURRICULUM
GBPJPY set for bullish move in the 2nd half of the week.Based on the Ichimoku analysis, here’s a trade setup using the 4-hour and daily charts, incorporating Ichimoku Wave and Time Theory: 1. Observations on the Daily Chart: Trend: The price is within the Ichimoku cloud, indicating consolidation or indecision. However, the bullish attempt to break above the cloud suggests upward momentum might develop. Key Levels: Resistance: 197.50 (upper cloud boundary and recent highs). Support: 194.50 (Kijun-Sen and lower cloud boundary). Chikou Span (Lagging Line): Inside the price action, signaling no clear trend confirmation yet. Wave Theory: After a sharp rally in mid-December, the market shows signs of completing a corrective wave within the cloud. Time Theory: If the next bullish move aligns with the current time cycles (Kihon-Suchi intervals: 9, 17, 26), a breakout may occur around the next 2–3 trading days. 2. Observations on the 4-Hour Chart: Trend: The price is trading above the cloud, suggesting a short-term bullish bias. Key Levels: Resistance: 197.00 (recent highs). Support: 195.50 (Kijun-Sen on the 4-hour chart and near the cloud top). Chikou Span: Positioned above the price action, supporting bullish momentum. Wave Theory: The impulsive move to 198.00 was followed by a correction back into the cloud. Current price action suggests a potential new bullish wave starting. Time Theory: Time intervals suggest a minor pullback may complete soon, and the next bullish wave could initiate in the next 4–8 candles. 3. Trade Setup: Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Entry: Wait for a close above 197.00 on the 4-hour chart to confirm bullish momentum. Target 1: 198.50 (previous high on the 4-hour chart). Target 2: 200.00 (psychological level and wave projection). Stop Loss: Below 195.50, where the Kijun-Sen and cloud support converge. Bearish Scenario (If Daily Cloud Resistance Holds): Entry: If price rejects 197.00 and closes below 195.50 on the 4-hour chart. Target 1: 194.00 (daily cloud support). Target 2: 192.50 (next significant support on the daily chart). Stop Loss: Above 197.50. 4. Ichimoku Wave and Time Theory Insights: Wave Analysis: The market may form a new bullish N-wave if it breaks above 197.00. Targets for this wave could align with the 198.50–200.00 zone. Time Analysis: Watch for reversals or breakout confirmations within 2–3 trading days (daily chart) or 4–8 candles (4-hour chart), aligned with the Kihon-Suchi cycles.
Long
by Welburg_Trading
1
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the pullback support. Pivot: 1.0464 1st Support: 1.0333 1st Resistance: 1.0600 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
1
Bullish bounce?The Swissie (USD/CHF) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 0.8868 1st Support: 0.8775 1st Resistance: 0.9019 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
1
Bearish drop?USD/JPY is reacting off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 157.85 1st Support: 154.75 1st Resistance: 161.80 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
3
Fed Rate Expectations: How Are They Formed?Changes in the Federal Reserve's funds rate have far-reaching implications for nearly all existing assets. When the rate increases amidst moderate inflation, the U.S. dollar TVC:DXY typically strengthens, attracting capital from both the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Conversely, if inflation is rising rapidly and the Fed is compelled to aggressively raise rates to stabilize the economy, investors often interpret this as a sign of underlying trouble, prompting them to shift their assets into TVC:GOLD . However, it is essential to recognize that the Fed’s decisions are reactions to prevailing economic conditions. More crucially, market expectations regarding the Fed's rate movements—shaped by collective sentiment—play a significant role in shaping economic outcomes. This post explores the factors that form these expectations. 📍 Key Indicators Influencing Expectations for the Fed Funds Rate The market tends to respond significantly only when actual changes in the funds rate diverge from expectations. If adjustments align with market forecasts, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar typically remains stable. Thus, accurately predicting the Fed's actions is vital for investors and traders. 1. Labor Market Dynamics The labor market is a primary focus for the Fed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases employment reports every Friday, providing insight into unemployment rates. The Fed maintains a forecast range for acceptable unemployment levels—generally between 4.2% and 4.8%—indicating economic balance. An uptick in unemployment signals economic weakness, often prompting a reduction in the funds rate. Conversely, a decline in unemployment raises concerns about potential economic overheating, which could lead to tighter monetary policy. 2. Inflation Trends The Fed’s target inflation rate is set at 2%. As inflation rises, the Fed typically increases the funds rate to curb borrowing. This was clearly illustrated during the 2022-2023 period, where persistent inflation above 8% led to a series of rate hikes. In contrast, deflation would necessitate maintaining ultra-low funds rates. Additional indicators to monitor include wage trends, inflation expectations, and the consumer price index (CPI). 3. Overall Economic Health Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic health. Although GDP data is often retrospective, it reflects long-term economic trends. A decline in GDP may prompt the Fed to adopt stimulative monetary policies. Analysts often utilize the GDPNow model, developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, to obtain real-time estimates of U.S. GDP growth. 4. Treasury Yield Curve The yield curve illustrates the relationship between bond yields of different maturities from the same issuer. A flattening yield curve typically signals economic slowdown, while long-term bonds yielding less than short-term bonds can foreshadow a recession. The Fed could respond to such signs by adjusting funds rates higher depending on the crisis’s underlying causes. 5. Global Economic Influences Economic conditions in other major economies, particularly China and the European Union, can indirectly impact the U.S. economy due to deep economic ties. Monitoring central bank funds rates and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in these regions is essential. 6. The Dollar’s Exchange Rate Against Key Currencies A strong U.S. dollar can adversely affect American exporters. If other central banks, such as the Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank, adopt accommodative monetary policies, the Fed may also consider lowering rates to avoid a detrimental trade balance caused by a strengthening dollar. 7. Market Expectations Investor sentiment creates a feedback loop. With over 50% of Americans investing in equities, a hawkish stance on funds rates tends to increase bond yields and instigate a sell-off in securities, negatively impacting overall economic wealth. Investors’ anticipation of potential rate cuts can pressure the Fed to align with these expectations. 8. Communication from Fed Officials The rhetoric from Fed officials often hints at future monetary policy, providing insights into rate expectations based on their communications. Numerous indicators, including analysts’ forecasts and futures trading on key rates, contribute to understanding the Fed's policies. Due to the complexity of these influencing factors, relying solely on fundamental analysis for trading is not advisable for beginners. 📍 Conclusion Forecasting changes in the Fed's funds rate often begins with the first clear signals about the Fed's potential actions. The primary motivations guiding the Fed are the control of inflation and the management of unemployment—making these two indicators crucial for predictions regarding monetary policy. Additionally, it is essential to consider fundamental factors impacting other major currencies. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
3