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USD/HKD short?Factors That Could Push USD/HKD Lower (HKD Appreciation) Capital Inflows Into Hong Kong -Increased foreign investment (e.g., into Hong Kong equities, IPOs, real estate) can drive demand for HKD. -This forces HKMA to intervene by selling HKD and buying USD to keep the peg in place. Stronger Chinese Economic Outlook -Since Hong Kong is tightly linked to China, a surge in investor confidence in China’s recovery or stimulus measures can boost demand for HKD assets. US Dollar Weakness -If the Fed cuts rates aggressively or if inflation in the US falls sharply, USD could weaken across the board, including versus HKD (within the peg limits). -Lower US yields reduce the interest rate differential that typically favors USD holdings. Shift in Carry Trade Dynamics -Traders who borrowed in HKD to invest in higher-yielding USD assets may unwind positions if USD rates fall, pushing demand back into HKD. Intervention by the HKMA at the Strong Side -When USD/HKD nears 7.75, the HKMA sells HKD to prevent further appreciation, thus maintaining the lower bound of the peg. Important Limits -The Peg Is Actively Defended: The HKMA intervenes automatically to keep USD/HKD within the 7.75–7.85 range, using its foreign reserves. Extreme Downward Movement Unlikely: Unless there’s a major structural change, such as abandoning the peg or switching to another anchor currency (e.g., RMB), a sustained move below 7.75 is not possible under current policy. -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
Short
by bossout10
5
Bullish reversal?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 145.84 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 144.91 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 147.15 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
2
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?The Cable (GBP/USD) is rising towards the pivot, which acts as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.3611 1st Support: 1.3469 1st Resistance: 1.3693 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
3
Lingrid | NZDUSD Potential Market Correction From ResistanceFX:NZDUSD has approached a key resistance zone at 0.6040 after completing an A-B-C upward move and forming a potential lower high. Price is testing both horizontal and trendline resistance, suggesting exhaustion within the broader upward move. A failure to hold above the 0.6040 area may trigger a reversal toward the 0.5991 support zone. The structure favors a bearish pullback if the breakout is rejected. 📉 Key Levels Sell trigger: Rejection from 0.6045 Sell zone: 0.6035–0.6045 Target: 0.5991 Invalidation: Close above 0.6055 💡 Risks Clean breakout above resistance zone Strengthening NZD from risk sentiment shift Holding above upward trendline support If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Short
by Lingrid
10
USDJPY Ascending channel bullish strong from support 📊USDJPY Analysis – 4H Timeframe USDJPY is giving full respect to the bullish ascending channel, maintaining higher highs and higher lows with clean structure 📍 Key Support Zone: Strong buying interest seen near 147.200 — potential long opportunity from this zone Watching for bullish confirmation or entry setups at this level 🎯 Next Target / Supply Zone: 🔹149.000 – marked as the next resistance / supply zone where price may react or slow down Bullish Order Block (OB) sits deeper at 143.000 – a strong area of interest if price pulls back further 🧠Stay patient and let price action lead — clean structure, smart levels, and risk-managed entries What’s your take on USDJPY right now? Drop your thoughts #usdjpy
Long
by experttrader04
9
One last rally in EUR/USDIn the right bottom you can see the Daily chart for EUR/USD: The chart shows the EUR/USD on a daily timeframe. There was an initial strong rise of 1,700 pips, marked as a 100% move. After this, the price corrected downward by 1,084 pips, which is 61.8% of the previous rise. The 61.8% retracement is a common Fibonacci level, often signaling a reversal or pause. Now, the price is moving up again, following a similar path as the first rise. The chart suggests a possible new upward move of another 1,700 pips (100%). A "take profits zone" is marked at the top, indicating a target area for traders. This pattern reflects how markets often move in waves: trend, correction, and trend continuation. Fibonacci levels help traders identify potential reversal points. The chart is used to project future moves based on past price behavior. The MAIN CHART shows a clear uptrend for EURUSD and the current correction with a flag. The combination of both patterns give us a clear BUY zone in the channel and using the trend as support or once the channel break upwards. This is a very good risk reward ratio trade situation where all traders should be!
Long
by TopChartPatterns
16
CHFJPY Looks Toppy… Is a 500 Pip Crash Coming?CHFJPY Has Exploded Past 180 — But Is the Top Already In? After blowing clean through the key 180 resistance level, CHFJPY has continued surging into July — a month historically known for thin liquidity as traders hit holiday mode. These low-volume environments often lead to exaggerated price moves, much like we see in late December. From a structural standpoint, this pair looks seriously overextended and ripe for a sharp pullback — with potential downside targets around 180 and 178 over the coming weeks. If I were a bull, I’d want to see a clear break and weekly/monthly close above 186 before considering further upside. As it stands, I’m gradually building into a short position, eyeing that 180 handle as my first key level. Let me know your thoughts in the comments — agree, disagree, or seeing something I’m not? *This is my personal analysis shared for educational purposes only. Always do your own research — never blindly follow anyone’s trades.*
Short
by TheFxAce
5
GBPNZD Analysis — 4H Chart ReviewI’m watching GBPNZD for a potential bullish continuation after a successful retest of the long-term ascending trendline. Price rejected near the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle and showed bullish momentum right off that support. My structure suggests potential upside targets at 2.25559 (minor resistance) and 2.26854 (upper triangle boundary/major resistance zone). 🔍 Fundamental Context: 🇬🇧 GBP Fundamentals: UK CPI came in softer than expected, and BoE rate cuts are slowly being priced in for late 2025. However, BoE still sounds relatively hawkish compared to RBNZ due to inflation persistence in services. Strong UK wage growth and sticky inflation give GBP some near-term yield support. 🇳🇿 NZD Fundamentals: RBNZ remains on hold, but dovish tilt noted in recent communications. NZD under pressure from falling dairy prices and weak global growth sentiment (especially China). Risk-off flows and Fed hawkishness keep NZD vulnerable as a high-beta currency. ⚠️ Risks to the Setup: A surprise hawkish turn from RBNZ or better-than-expected NZ data could boost NZD. Renewed UK political instability or weak retail sales data may pressure GBP. Broader market risk sentiment — NZD may strengthen if risk-on returns and US yields drop. 🗓️ Key News/Events to Monitor: UK Retail Sales (July 25) RBNZ Governor Orr Speech (if scheduled) US PCE (for global risk impact) Chinese macro data (indirect NZD driver) 🔁 Leader/Lagger Perspective: GBPNZD often leads EURNZD during GBP-specific catalysts (BoE speeches, UK CPI). It lags NZDUSD and NZDCAD when risk sentiment or commodity cycles dominate. 📌 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints I'm bullish on GBPNZD in the short term, especially after a strong trendline retest and recovery off the 2.2450 zone. Fundamentals support GBP resilience over NZD due to relatively hawkish BoE stance and weaker New Zealand data. The main risk to this setup would be a dovish BoE surprise or strong NZ commodity-led rebound. I'll be watching UK Retail Sales and general risk sentiment closely. This pair can act as a leader during UK-specific news but becomes a lagger when risk flows dominate broader NZD direction.
Long
by ultreosforex
1
EUR/USD | Bullish Momentum Builds – Next Targets Ahead! (READ)By analyzing the EURUSD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that, as per the previous analysis, the price first made a strong move in two steps, successfully hitting the 1.15580 target. Upon reaching this key level, it reacted positively with increased demand and is now trading around 1.16520. Given the current trend, I expect further bullish movement soon, with the next potential targets at 1.16720, 1.17230, and 1.17500. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
18
AUDCAD: Respecting Structure, Repeating OpportunityWhat we’re looking at here is a beautifully balanced range market, the kind I love trading, because it speaks so clearly when you take a moment to listen. Price is respecting both sides of this range clearly. The lows are being protected and respected multiple times before. We’ve already tapped into that lower bound, and the reaction has been good, together with liquidity collecting. And when price finds its feet in these kinds of zones, I immediately think of what the range is offering, right now, with risk clearly defined and reward just sitting at the other edge, waiting. If price gives us one more small retest, I’m watching for confirmation: not just in candlestick structure, but also in volume behavior. I have my eyes set straight on that upper resistance zone near 0.90000. And from there unless there’s a news catalyst or volume breakout, that’s where the move likely might exhaust… and that’s where I’m out, before the reversal can bite. If the structure shifts, I’ll shift too. But until then, this is a perfect range. Just sharing my thoughts for the charts, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TrendDiva
15