GJ-Mon-30/06/25 TDA-Near end of month candle closureAnalysis done directly on the chart
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Random daily reminder:
Keep pushing forward, learn, make mistake, improve.
Have patience, you are getting there day by day.
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Journal down consistently, so you keep track of your progress
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Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
Forex market
AUD/CAD – Bearish Reversal Setup (1H Timeframe)We’re monitoring AUD/CAD closely after a strong bullish trend. However, signs of exhaustion are now visible.
A Double Top — a classic bearish reversal pattern — has formed on the 1H chart, and a bearish divergence is also present, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Based on this confluence, we anticipate a trend reversal from bullish to bearish and are preparing a sell trade accordingly.
🔹 Pair: AUD/CAD
🔹 Timeframe: 1H
🔹 Trend: Bullish (reversal expected)
🔹 Pattern: Double Top
🔹 Divergence: Bearish
🔹 Bias: Bearish
🔹 Entry (Sell Stop): 0.89045
🔹 Stop Loss: 0.89643
🔹 Take Profit 1: 0.88447
🔹 Lot Size: 0.45
🔹 Risk/Reward: 1:1
🔹 Risk: $200
🔹 Potential Reward: $200
🎯 Strategy: Entry will trigger after confirmation of neckline break from the double top pattern. Trade is structured with a balanced risk-to-reward ratio.
📌 #AUDCAD #ForexSignals #BearishReversal #DoubleTopPattern #DivergenceTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceActionSetup #TrendReversal #SmartMoney #1HChart #ForexTradeIdeas #RiskManagement #BearishBias
How To Short Sell This Forex Pair In A 4h (Time Frame) EntryAm always a curious person and thats what
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EURUSD – June 30th OutlookBias: Still bullish
Liquidity zone pullback: 1.16853 held as expected
Next move: Watching for break of Friday's high at 1.17342 → possible retest of 1.17311 → continuation upward
HRHR Setup: If price returns to 1.16853 today, it's a high risk play due to end-of-month volatility
Caution: If we break below the previous 4H candle, we could range between 1.17342 and 1.16853 for the remainder of the day.
🔹 Approach with caution — it’s the final trading day of the month.
demand zone spotted short sell for long bullish continuation📉 GBP/JPY 4H Analysis – Liquidity Grab + Demand Zone Anticipation
Price action on GBP/JPY is currently in a corrective phase after a strong bullish move, and this pullback presents an interesting setup based on institutional footprints.
1. Structure Break (BOS) & Shift in Momentum
* A Break of Structure (BOS) occurred after price broke above the previous swing high, confirming a bullish trend direction.
* Following the BOS, price retraced into an imbalance (Fair Value Gap - FVG), and responded with aggressive bullish momentum — a classic SMC footprint suggesting institutional buy orders being filled.
2. Current Price Action – Short-Term Bearish Retracement
* Price is currently rejecting the 197.894 resistance zone, and showing signs of weakness with bearish candles.
* This correction is likely targeting liquidity beneath recent lows and a return into the demand zone for potential long opportunities.
3. Demand Zone & Buy Setup
* A well-defined **Demand Zone** sits between **194.000 – 194.600**, which aligns with the previous consolidation and origin of the last major push up.
* This area is also aligned with the unmitigated FVG area — making it a confluence zone where institutional orders are likely to rest.
📍 Trade Plan
Short-Term Bias: Bearish into Demand
Long-Term Bias: Bullish continuation
* Entry: 197.894 (already tapped)
* Stop Loss: 199.123 (above recent highs/supply)
* Take Profit: 194.618 (just above the demand zone to secure profits early)
* Risk-to-Reward: Approximately 1:3
If price enters the demand zone and forms bullish price action (engulfing, internal BOS, or FVG), I will be looking to **flip long** with a target back toward **197.800 – 198.900**.
✅ Conclusion
The current move looks like a healthy retracement to fill imbalances and grab liquidity before the next impulsive leg. This setup provides a high-probability trade opportunity using clean smart money principles.
USD/CHF H4 | Swing-high resistance at a Fibonacci confluenceUSD/CHF is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.8012 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 50% retracements.
Stop loss is at 0.8050 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 0.7962 which is a swing-low support.
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GBPJPY – Bearish Setup Within Uptrend ChannelGBPJPY is moving inside a larger uptrend channel on the 1-hour chart.
Price had been consolidating in a clear trade zone near the recent highs.
That trade zone support has now broken with strong bearish momentum.
This breakdown signals a potential short-term structure shift.
Sellers are stepping in below the trade zone, rejecting further upside.
Bias turns bearish while price stays under this broken level.
We’re now looking for continuation lower within the channel.
Key downside target identified at 194.00, near channel support.
This aligns with previous reaction levels and demand zones.
Plan:
1.Watch for retests of the broken zone for short opportunities.
2.Manage entries and risk carefully inside the channel.
3.Expect downside flow toward 194.00 if momentum holds.
4.Price action confirms break of support, favoring a move lower.
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eurusd 1hEURUSD – 1H Demand Zone (Outside the Range)
EURUSD is currently trading within a clear consolidation range. However, a 1H demand zone has formed outside the current range, indicating potential for a breakout-retest scenario. This demand lies below the consolidation structure, making it a set-and-forget style entry if price sweeps liquidity and returns to this zone.
USDCAD – Long Bias LiveUSDCAD – Long Bias Live
🔹 Entered long near market open at ~1.36780
🎯 Target: 1.37112 (previous swing area highlighted)
⏳ Expect to hold into next London/New York session
After a sharp spike up into the yellow zone (~1.37283) and subsequent retrace, price has found support around 1.36780 (lower white curve). I’m anticipating a bounce back up toward the red resistance band at 1.37112 (former swing level).
• Entry: ~1.36780 support
• Target: 1.37112 resistance
• Timeframe: 15 min chart, swing through today’s London open
All setups can be replayed on TradingView for confirmation.
⚠️ Not financial advice—always trade with proper risk management!
#USDCAD #Forex #TradingView #PriceAction #SwingTrade
AUDNZD short term LONG idea in M30AUDNZD short term BUY idea. AUDNZD is in reversal in Daily and H4 timeframes.
Possible setup for AUDNZD to turn long in M30 TF.
Please note the historical charts shows this pair has lot of liquidity sweeps and manipulation. Please trade with proper risk management.
This is for educational purpose only. Not a financial or investment advise.
EURJPY 4hour TF - June 29th, 2025EURJPY 4hour Bullish Idea
Monthly - Bullish
Weekly - Bullish
Daily - Bullish
4hour - Bullish
EJ has been in a bullish trend on all timeframes and doesn’t really show any signs of stopping. Currently we are right near major monthly resistance around 171.000. It is likely we will see price action push into this zone but we want to identify a potential trade beforehand.
Here are two potential scenarios for this week on EJ
Bullish Continuation - We are a bit close to the 171.000 monthly zone so we would like to see price action come back to our 168.500 4hour support zone before targeting higher.
Trend Reversal - If we see price action fall below 168.500 we want to see bearish conviction and rejection from that same zone. If this happens we can start to consider short scenarios and target lower support levels like 166.250.
Bullish Analyzing the AUD/USD across multiple timeframes, we observe a consistent pattern of price recovery and potential accumulation phases. Starting from the 1D chart, there is a visible upward trend with recent bullish candles indicating strong buying interest. The 4H and 1H charts show a pullback to a potential Order Block (OB) around 0.6535, suggesting institutional buying interest at these levels.
The 15M, 5M, and 1M charts provide a more granular view, showing recent price rejection at lower levels and a swift recovery, indicating a sweep of liquidity below recent lows and a potential trapping of retail short positions. This setup suggests a possible preparation for an upward continuation, as institutions may have accumulated enough positions at a discount.
INSTITUTIONAL THESIS:
Institutions appear to be in an accumulation phase, buying at lower levels (around 0.6535) and preparing for a potential upward move. The repeated testing and rejection of lower prices across shorter timeframes indicate a buildup of buy-side liquidity, likely targeting the recent highs for a liquidity grab.
LEARNING POINT:
"1H Order Block mitigation after liquidity sweep" - This concept is crucial as it shows how institutions potentially use lower price levels to accumulate positions before driving the price up to target liquidity above the market.
SIGNAL: WAIT
SYMBOL: AUD/USD
ENTRY PRICE: $0.6535
STOP LOSS: $0.6520
TARGET PRICE: $0.6560
CONDITION: Buy limit at $0.6535 after confirming support at this level across multiple timeframes.
RATIONALE: Calculated risk/reward ratio of 1:1.7 (Risk=$0.00, Reward=$0.00) does not meet minimum 2:1 requirement. Waiting for better institutional setup with improved risk parameters.
STRATEGIES USED: 1H Order Block Mitigation, Multi-Timeframe Liquidity Analysis
URGENCY: MEDIUM
TIMEFRAME: Short-term
CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85%
RISK/REWARD RATIO: Risk=$0.00, Reward=$0.00, Ratio=1:1.7 (Below 2:1 minimum)
Risk Calculation:
Risk = Entry Price - Stop Loss = $0.6535 - $0.6520 = $0.0015
Reward Calculation:
Reward = Target Price - Entry Price = $0.6560 - $0.6535 = $0.0025
Ratio Calculation:
Ratio = Reward ÷ Risk = $0.0025 ÷ $0.0015 = 1:1.67
Final Decision:
The calculated risk/reward ratio is less than 2:1, thus changing the signal to WAIT.
FINAL RECOMMENDATION: WAIT
Despite the favorable setup for a BUY based on institutional analysis, the risk/reward ratio does not meet the minimum requirement of 2:1. It is recommended to monitor the price action closely and adjust the target or stop loss to improve the risk/reward ratio before entering the trade.
GBPCAD 10 weeks of Consolidation/buildup ready for breakout ?GBPCAD has nearly 10 weeks consolidated at the box and each week got rejected from the resistance. The wig of the candle can tell you the story of rejection and now last week this wig has been overcome by strong bullish solid candle and high chances of breakout possible. let us see...
Is it too late for a TACO trade on USD/CAD? USD/CAD jumped nearly 900 pips on Monday after President Donald Trump announced he is “terminating” trade negotiations with Canada. But the surge didn’t stick. Within hours, the pair gave up most of its gains, slipping back below the 1.3700 breakout level.
There’s been no reversal from Trump — not yet. But price action suggests the market might be front-running one. Traders have seen this before: the “TACO” setup — Trump Always Chickens Out.
In that context, traders may be cautious about chasing the spike without confirmation that the trade breakdown will be long-lasting. The USD/CAD trade now hinges on updates from Trump for more TACO setups.
If USD/CAD stays below 1.3700, the focus shifts back to 1.3628 and possibly lower. Below that, the long-term structure suggests a broader range between 1.3500 and 1.3770.
Forex: Weekly Review...USD in the douldrums USD weakness was the stand out theme for the week starting Monday 22 June. Abated Middle East and tariff concerns, softening US data and hawkish FED board members turning dovish, all combined to ensure the dollar was the week's laggard.
It's interesting that the EUR and particularly the CHF outshone, which meant AUD CHF went down despite the 'risk on' environment. This could be attributed to general USD liquidity skewing the other currencies against each other, although I did read that the EUR and CHF are benefitting from relatively high holdings of gold. Which is a narrative I'll be keeping an eye on.
The president did try to ruffle some tariff feathers on Friday, but currently the market sees any tariff negativity as a buying opportunity. And as the new week begins, I envision last week's themes will remain in place, I wouldn't rule out a 'general risk on' trade. But it's difficult to make a case to short any other currency other than the USD.
In other news, I didn't particularly notice any other news. Except perhaps to mention CAD weakness, which I put down to proximity to the US and also the reversal of the Middle East trade (namely the oil price reversing recent gains). There is a case to say a CAD short is viable, but whilst the 4hr swings on USD CAD are heading downwards, it's likely the USD will remain the better short.
On a personal note, I only managed one trade. AUD CHF long. Which went sideways for a couple of days before stopping out. Ultimately it turned out a USD short would have been a better option. But at the time I placed the trade, It looked like the dollar was recovering against the CHF and at that point I hadn't read about the possibility CHF is benefitting from the SNB gold reserves.
When I realised a USD short would have been better, should I have manually closed the trade and placed a USD short?
There is a case to yes. But personally, I'd rather make a decision in the moment...and let that decision play out. Rather than going down the emotional rabbit hole of interfering with the original decision.
The higher risk reward per trade will ultimately take care of your account.
Personally, from a trading perspective, it was a tough month and I'm glad to see the back of June, as I always say, the only thing that matters is how you move forward.
Please feel free to offer any thoughts or questions.
Results:
Trade 1: AUD CHF -1
Total = -1%
Total since start of blog = +39% (risking 1% per trade)