Forex market
EURUSD Will Go Higher From Support! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.172.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.177 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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GBPJPY Will Go Down From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPJPY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 197.551.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 196.207 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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GBPAUD Will Go Higher! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for GBPAUD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 2.098.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 2.106 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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GBP/AUD Falling Wedge Pattern – Reversal or Breakdown?The GBP/AUD pair is currently trading inside a well-defined falling channel on the 15-minute timeframe. The price has been making lower highs and lower lows, respecting both the descending resistance and support trendlines. This setup suggests a short-term bearish structure, but the most recent bounce from the lower boundary raises the possibility of a bullish reversal from support.
🔁 Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: Around 2.0995–2.1005 (top of the channel)
Support Zone: Around 2.0930–2.0940 (bottom of the channel)
🔼 Bullish Reversal Scenario
The pair recently bounced strongly from the support zone, indicating buying interest near the channel bottom. If the price breaks above the descending resistance line with a strong bullish candle and follow-through, it would suggest a breakout from the falling channel. That could open upside potential toward 2.1020–2.1050, especially if volume supports the move.
🔽 Bearish Continuation Scenario
If the resistance holds and price starts to fall again, the pair could continue the downward structure, retesting the 2.0940–2.0930 support. A breakdown below that level would confirm a bearish continuation with possible targets near 2.0900 or lower.
🎯 Trade Plan Outline
Buy Setup:
Entry: On confirmed breakout above resistance (~2.1005)
SL: Below 2.0980
TP: 2.1030 / 2.1050
Sell Setup:
Entry: On rejection at resistance or confirmed breakdown below 2.0930
SL: Above 2.1000
TP: 2.0910 / 2.0885
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EURGBP Bullish continuation supported at 0.8510Trend Overview:
EURGBP remains in a bullish trend, characterised by higher highs and higher lows. The recent intraday price action is forming a continuation consolidation pattern, suggesting a potential pause before a renewed move higher.
Key Technical Levels:
Support: 0.8510 (primary pivot), followed by 0.8490 and 0.8470
Resistance: 0.8570 (initial), then 0.8590 and 0.8620
Technical Outlook:
A pullback to the 0.8510 level, which aligns with the previous consolidation zone, could act as a platform for renewed buying interest. A confirmed bounce from this support may trigger a continuation toward the next resistance levels at 0.8570, 0.8590, and ultimately 0.8620.
Conversely, a daily close below 0.8510 would suggest weakening bullish momentum. This scenario would shift the bias to bearish in the short term, potentially targeting 0.8490 and 0.8470 as downside levels.
Conclusion:
EURGBP maintains a bullish structure while trading above the 0.8510 support. A bounce from this level would validate the consolidation as a continuation pattern, with upside potential toward the 08570 area. A breakdown below 0.8510, however, would invalidate this view and suggest deeper corrective risk.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
AUD/CAD BEST PLACE TO BUY FROM|LONG
Hello, Friends!
AUD-CAD downtrend evident from the last 1W red candle makes longs trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 0.886 area still presents a good opportunity for us to buy the pair because the support line is nearby and the BB lower band is close which indicates the oversold state of the AUD/CAD pair.
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Buy setup TiqGpt1D Timeframe: The daily chart shows a strong bullish momentum with a series of green candles indicating a clear uptrend. This suggests institutional buying pressure and a lack of significant sell-side resistance.
4H Timeframe: The 4-hour chart presents a more consolidated view with price action oscillating around the 1.17200 level. This could indicate a phase of distribution or accumulation as institutions prepare for the next significant move.
1H Timeframe: The hourly chart shows a similar consolidation pattern with slight bullish bias as evidenced by the recent green candles. This could be a preparation phase before a potential liquidity sweep.
15M Timeframe: The 15-minute chart shows more volatility with price testing both higher and lower bounds around the central consolidation zone. This indicates active trading and potential setup for stop hunts.
5M Timeframe: On the 5-minute chart, there is a visible decline, suggesting a potential liquidity grab as price dips below the consolidation zone, possibly trapping late retail sellers.
1M Timeframe: The 1-minute chart shows a sharp drop followed by a quick recovery, indicative of a stop hunt or liquidity sweep, confirming the potential trap seen on the 5-minute chart.
INSTITUTIONAL THESIS:
Institutions appear to be in a phase of accumulation after a liquidity sweep, particularly visible on the lower timeframes. The recent sharp movements on the 1-minute and 5-minute charts suggest a trapping of retail positions, setting the stage for a potential bullish continuation.
LEARNING POINT:
"1M and 5M liquidity sweep and trapping of retail sellers before potential bullish continuation."
ELLIOTT WAVE EURUSD H4 update
EW Trade Set Up H4
minuette W4 ended, w5 running
with the decisive break of the 1.1570 level, wave 4 can be declared finished and wave 5 is underway in motive way. Not clear yet the type of motive wave impulsive or diagonal.
daily key levels (area)
1.1732
1.1715 POC
1.1690
The Day Ahead A packed data slate and central bank commentary will shape market sentiment today. Key focus will be on China’s official PMIs for June, offering the first major insight into the health of the global manufacturing cycle as Q3 begins. A soft print could amplify global growth concerns, while a surprise to the upside may support risk sentiment across Asia and commodities.
In the US, attention will turn to the June MNI Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index for further clarity on the state of US industry after mixed regional data earlier this month. The consumer credit and M4 money supply data, along with Q1 current account figures, could influence the USD via their implications for domestic demand and external balances.
The UK sees the release of the Lloyds Business Barometer, which will provide a gauge of corporate confidence amid sticky inflation and persistent BoE rate cut speculation.
In the Eurozone, eyes will be on Germany’s June CPI flash estimate, retail sales, and import prices, all feeding into inflation expectations ahead of the ECB’s July policy meeting. Italy’s CPI and Eurozone May M3 will also be watched closely for signs of disinflation and liquidity trends.
From Japan, May industrial production and housing starts will help assess whether the domestic economy is managing to maintain momentum amid a weak yen and global headwinds.
On the central bank front, the ECB Forum in Sintra kicks off, running through July 2. President Christine Lagarde is due to speak, and any remarks on the rate path or inflation outlook will be closely parsed. Markets will also hear from Fed’s Bostic and Goolsbee, potentially offering clues on the FOMC’s stance amid rising speculation around a September cut.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
GBPJPY Long – Liquidity Sweep & Bullish Shift from Discount Pric
Price swept key sellside liquidity at 197.489, forming a clean external W pattern in deep discount territory. A bullish engulfing candle followed, closing above the internal shift point and reclaiming structure just beneath 198.012 (yesterday’s low). Entered long on confirmed shift with TP set at box equilibrium (EQ) and stop loss placed below the pattern base. Setup aligns with liquidity theory, structure reclaim, and smart money accumulation.
The Correlation Between EURJPY and NASDAQ You Shouldn't IgnoreCurrently keeping a close eye on EURJPY — price action has been bullish 📈, showing a strong upward push on the daily timeframe 🕒.
Right now, we’re seeing a bit of indecision 🤔, which is fairly typical for a Monday session as the market finds its footing.
🔍 I’m watching for continuation to the upside, as long as NASDAQ remains bullish. That said, NASDAQ is looking quite overextended 🧗, and a pullback could trigger a short-term retracement in the euro as well — these two tend to move in correlation 🔗, so keep a close watch on NAS100 for early clues.
If EURJPY consolidates sideways ⏸️, and we then get a clear break of market structure to the upside 🚀, I’ll be looking for a long setup on the retest and failure of the range floor — textbook continuation play 🎯.
As always, this is not financial advice — full breakdown in the video 🎥.
EURAUD BUY TRADE PLAN🔥 **EUR/AUD TRADE PLAN 🔥**
📅 **Date:** 30 June 2025
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📋 **Trade Plan Overview**
| Parameter | Details |
| ---------- | -------------------- |
| Type | Swing / Intra-Day |
| Direction | Conditional Buy Plan |
| Status | Pending Confirmation |
| R\:R | 3.0 : 1 |
| Confidence | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (85%) |
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📈 **Market Bias & Trade Type**
Bias: **Bullish continuation**
Trade Type: **Conditional breakout/retest continuation**
EUR/AUD is consolidating near local highs after a sustained uptrend on the D1 and H4. The price action shows a potential for bullish continuation if the 1.7950 zone is broken and confirmed.
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🔰 **Confidence Level**
⭐⭐⭐⭐ (85%)
* D1 + H4 bullish structure: +40%
* H1 compression breakout potential: +20%
* No macro contradiction / AUD weak: +15%
* Sentiment +6: +10%
---
📌 **Status**
**Pending confirmation** — Conditional plan, no risk live until trigger + confirm.
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📍 **Entry Zones**
🟩 **Primary Buy Zone:** Buy Stop at **1.7952** (+2 pip buffer above high)
🟧 **Secondary (if breakout-retest scenario forms):** Limit at **1.7920–1.7930** (H1 OB + retest zone)
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❗ **Stop Loss**
SL: **1.7890** (below H1 structure low inside consolidation, 1x ATR buffer)
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🎯 **Take Profit Targets**
🥇 TP1: **1.8000** (local psychological level)
🥈 TP2: **1.8050** (H4 liquidity pool)
🥉 TP3: **1.8120** (extension / swing high target)
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📏 **Risk\:Reward**
TP1: 1.5:1
TP2: 3.0:1
TP3: 4.5:1
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🧠 **Management Strategy**
* Risk 0.5% if stop-order triggers
* SL to breakeven after TP1 hit
* 50% off at TP1, 30% at TP2, trail 20% to TP3
* Cancel limit plan if stop-order triggers clean breakout
* Full exit on H1 BOS bearish against
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⚠️ **Confirmation Checklist**
✅ M30/H1 bullish body close above 1.7950
✅ Volume surge at break
✅ London/NY session break only
✅ No fakeout wick rejection
---
⏳ **Validity**
H1 stop plan: 12-18 hours
H4 retest limit plan: 48 hours
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❌ **Invalidation Conditions**
* Close below 1.7890 on H1
* Clean HTF BOS bearish
* Re-entry into deeper consolidation below 1.7900
---
🌐 **Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot**
* Sentiment: +6 (EUR holding strength, AUD macro weak)
* DXY steady, no major red news today
* Cross-market: XAU/USD neutral, no risk-off spikes
* No AUD macro tailwind visible
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📋 **Final Trade Summary**
Conditional buy breakout at 1.7952 pending confirmation. Stop 1.7890, TPs 1.8000 / 1.8050 / 1.8120. Only active on clean session break + volume. Risk tightly managed with no pre-risk until confirm.