Market next move . Support Fatigue / Breakdown Risk
Observation: Price has tested the red support zone multiple times.
Disruption: Repeated tests of support often weaken it. If it breaks, a sharp drop may follow.
Implication: Instead of bouncing, EUR/USD could slide below 1.13200, triggering stop-losses.
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2. Lack of Bullish Volume Confirmation
Observation: The recent candles show low volume on bullish attempts.
Disruption: Weak demand at support indicates hesitation among buyers.
Implication: Without a volume spike, any bounce may be short-lived or fail entirely.
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3. Bearish Momentum Still Intact
Observation: Price action shows consistent lower highs and lower lows.
Disruption: The short-term trend is still bearish, so this could be a pause before continuation down.
Implication: A false bullish break could trap long traders before a drop resumes.
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4. Fundamental Risks (USD Strength)
Disruption: Any U.S. data surprises or hawkish Fed comments (noted by U.S. event icons on the chart) could push USD higher, dragging EUR/USD down.
Implication: Technical bounce setups could be invalidated by macro events.
Forex market
NZD/USD 4 Hr. Real-Time Bias!1). Place Fib tool wherever it works, as theses will be key levels of Buy/Sell entries! 2). Strike a trendline off of whatever works best! 3). Establish a 5-wave/ABC sequence that seems to work! 4). Remember, wave 1 defines directional bias of price action! 5). Wave 5 slightly broke above a previous high, therefore the upward bias is likely still intact! 6). It's all the same price action principles on any timeframe any Instrument! 7). Practice...It's actually quite simple!
EURCHF both scenarios possibles
OANDA:EURCHF UPDATE from first analysis (attached) we are have upside - downside moves, new trend line is created, sup zone is created (violet line) and we can see also long zone.
If we see break of 0.94000 we will be higly possible in bullish move, break of sup zone (violet line) we will can see bearish move.
Currently still giving higher chances for bearish trend, but lets see some stronger moves.
SUP zone: 0.93850
RES zone: 0.92750, 0.92550
EURJPY still to expect bearish for new week
OANDA:EURJPY strong bearish bounce from top line of price action, currently price in rectangle and on bottom line of price action.
EUR with all showing self the weakest in last periods and expectations are still to see weaknes, here expecting break of rectangle and trend line of PA and higher bearish continuation till res zone.
SUP zone: 163.300
RES zone: 160.600
USDCHF- Buy on dips USDCHF formed triple bottom near 0.8180 and showed a minor pullback. It hits an intraday high of 0.82685 and is currently trading around 0.82666. Intraday bias appears to be bullish as long as the support 0.8180 holds.
Markets eye US Durable goods order data nd SNB chairman speech today for further direction.
Technical Analysis Points to Further Upside
The pair is trading above the 55-EMA, below 200 EMA and 365 EMA on the 1-hour chart indicates a mixed trend. The immediate resistance is at 0.8272 any break above targets 0.8300/0.8350/0.8375.
Support Levels and Potential Declines
On the downside, near-term support is around 0.82250, any violation below will drag the pair to 0.8180/0.8135/0.8090/0.8000.
Bullish Indicators
CCI (50) - Bullish
Directional movement Index - Bullish
Trading Strategy Recommendation
It is good to buy on dips around 0.8258-60 with a stop-loss at 0.82220 for a TP of 0.8378/0.8405.
BUY GBPAUD break out# GBP/AUD Trading Plan
1. **Entry:**
- Buy on candle close above consolidation box
- price above moving averages
2. **Stop Loss:**
- 2.07601 as indication price failed to break out
- Use 2% account risk max
3. **Take Profit:**
Next major resistance level
4. **Key Confirmations:**
- Increasing volume on breakout
- Higher timeframe uptrend intact
- Strong momentum indicators
5. **Management:**
- Move stop to breakeven at +50% to first target
- Take partial profits at first target
Downtrend Awaiting ConfirmationUSDJPY has just made a technical rebound from the support zone at 142.22 up to the resistance area around 144.60 — a confluence with both the EMA 34 and EMA 89. However, based on the chart, this zone has previously acted as a reversal point, and price is now retesting that same level of rejection.
The current price action suggests a high likelihood of a small double-top pattern forming around 144.60. If selling pressure re-emerges here, the market could reverse and head back down toward 142.22, aligning with the developing downtrend.
Moody’s recent warning on U.S. credit rating has placed pressure on the USD, while the JPY continues to hold its safe-haven appeal amid market uncertainty.
EURUSD Trade Executed London May 25EURUSD Trade Executed London
May 25
PreMarket Analysis
Parent bias Bull
Previous session
Monthly
Expansion cycle opening above the .618 in a Premium, with a sell off wick, expecting the expansion to continue.
Weekly
Candle fractal is a expansion with equal highs and FVG as magnet to reach for.
Fridays delivery expanded in Asia consolidated in London then expanded to take buy side, retraced lower in London close, news manipulation to expand to the equal highs, did not take but went in to consolidation
May 26 Ideas
Premarket analysis logic suggested that Asia will expand to equal highs. It did. When price did not take the equal highs, I suspected a consolidation until London macro and anticipated a expansion move, to the down side.
London Framework
Trade framework
* Price in a premium market -DXY in a discount market
*1:39 fake swing,I did consider that price may want to take the equal highs it created and to be cautious
*1:55 price rolls over, elements of 2022 model were in play
*2:24 price swings up again with 2022 candle formation, swing low, displacement, FVG
3:00 swing low broken
3:02 entry with a fumble on my entry price
5:01 exit at second target
Very happy with the analysis and logic to frame this trade. My entry could have been tighter I lost 8 pips trying to enter, all good.
USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.This chart shows a technical analysis of USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen) on a 1-hour timeframe, published on May 27, 2025. Here's the breakdown:
Current Price: 143.975, with a notable upward movement (+0.79%).
Descending Wedge Pattern: The red trendlines show a falling wedge—a bullish reversal pattern.
Breakout: Price has broken above the wedge and is now rallying.
Support Zone: Highlighted rectangle (around 142.000–143.000), acting as a demand zone where price consolidated before breaking out.
Bullish Setup:
Entry Trigger: Breakout from the wedge + strong bullish candles.
Target: 145.119, marked with a target icon, just above the recent highs.
Projected Path: Zigzag upward trajectory drawn with green arrows suggests expected bullish continuation.
Summary:
This chart supports a long position idea based on a wedge breakout and strong momentum. The trader anticipates the price to rise toward 145.119. Risk management (SL level) isn’t explicitly marked but would typically sit below the support zone (~142.000).
Would you like help setting up trade parameters (entry, SL, TP) or automating alerts for a setup like this?
EUR/USD Holds Above 16-Year ChannelThe U.S. dollar, pressured by debt concerns, has declined toward critical 2025 lows near the 98 level. Meanwhile, the euro has stabilized near 1.1380, now trading above the upper boundary of a 16-year descending channel originating from the 2008 peak and extending through 2024.
This breakout positions EUR/USD for a potential long-term bullish move—provided the DXY confirms further downside. A firm monthly close above 1.16 would confirm the breakout, setting sights on highs from 2018 and 2021, between 1.20 and 1.24.
On the downside, key pullback levels are 1.1270, 1.1140, and 1.1070. A break below those could extend pressure toward 1.0990 and 1.0890.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
Pound Tops $1.357 on Solid DataGBP/USD advanced above $1.357, hitting its highest level since February 2022, as Trump’s delay of the 50% EU tariff boosted global sentiment. The pound also gained from promising April data, with retail sales rising 1.2%, marking the fourth monthly gain. Inflation stayed high at 3.5%, adding uncertainty over the BoE’s next move. Markets now price in a 50% chance of a rate cut by August, with another possible by year-end.
Support lies at 1.3425, with resistance at 1.3600. Other key levels are 1.3850 and 1.3750 above, and 1.3165 and 1.2890 below.
Euro Nears $1.14 as Dollar is PressuredEUR/USD climbed to $1.1395, approaching a one-month high as the dollar softened amid mounting U.S. fiscal concerns and uncertainty over Trump’s tax-and-spending bill. Risk sentiment improved after Trump delayed a planned 50% tariff on EU goods, easing fears of a transatlantic trade clash. The euro also gained from ECB President Lagarde’s remarks that it could strengthen as a global currency if EU institutions were reinforced.
Resistance is at 1.1425, with additional levels at 1.1460 and 1.1580. Support begins at 1.1260, followed by 1.1100 and 1.1050.
Yen Reaches Highest Level in a MonthThe Japanese yen strengthened toward 142 per dollar on Tuesday, its highest in four weeks, driven by safe-haven inflows and weak dollar sentiment tied to Trump’s fiscal plan. Worries over a widening U.S. deficit weighed on the greenback, while speculation of a 25% iPhone tariff added to trade conflicts. Domestically, expectations for more BoJ tightening rose after core inflation surprised at 3.5%, a two-year high.
Resistance stands at 148.60, with further levels at 149.80 and 151.20. Support is found at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.
EURGBPLooking at your EUR/GBP analysis, the pair appears to be approaching a critical reversal zone that could mark the end of the current downtrend.
The price action shows a clear Elliott Wave structure, with what appears to be a completed 5-wave decline from the highs marked at point (a). Currently, the pair is testing the significant support area highlighted in the pink box around the 0.786 level (0.83479), which coincides with the completion of wave 5.
This convergence of technical factors suggests we're entering a high-probability reversal area. The completion of the impulsive wave structure, combined with the pair reaching this key support zone, indicates that selling pressure may be exhausting.
From this level, we should anticipate a bullish reversal to develop soon. The initial upside targets would likely include the previous wave 4 area and the descending trendline resistance. A successful break above these levels would confirm the trend reversal and open the path for a more substantial recovery move.
Traders should watch for early signs of buying interest, such as bullish candlestick patterns or positive divergences on momentum indicators, to confirm the anticipated reversal. The risk-reward setup appears favorable for long positions near current levels, with stops below the support box.
The Day Ahead Economic Data (Key Market Movers)
United States:
April Durable Goods Orders – Key manufacturing signal.
May Conference Board Consumer Confidence – Insight into consumer outlook.
May Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity – Regional factory health.
March FHFA House Price Index / Q1 House Price Purchase Index – Housing trends.
Asia:
China April Industrial Profits – Industrial sector health check.
Japan April Services PPI – Service-sector inflation data.
Europe:
Germany June GfK Consumer Confidence – Eurozone demand signal.
France May CPI – Eurozone inflation input.
Eurozone May Economic Confidence – Overall sentiment indicator.
EU27 April New Car Registrations – Auto industry and consumer demand barometer.
Central Bank Activity
Fed’s Kashkari speaks – May affect USD, short-end yields.
ECB’s Villeroy and Nagel speak – Watch for policy clues ahead of June decision.
Earnings Releases
Xiaomi – China tech sentiment.
PDD Holdings – Consumer demand in China.
AutoZone – U.S. retail/auto sector strength.
Okta – Enterprise tech/security outlook.
Bond Auction
U.S. 2-Year Treasury Note – Key for gauging short-term rate sentiment and demand for front-end duration.
Trading Focus
U.S. data (durables, confidence) may drive early equity, USD, and bond market moves.
Central bank commentary can create intraday volatility, especially in rates and FX.
China and EU data influence risk tone and commodities.
Earnings from Xiaomi, PDD, Okta may move tech indexes and related sectors.
2Y auction is a barometer for Fed path expectations.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.