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German inflation higher than expected, Euro dipsThe euro is calm on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1334, down 0.45% on the day. Germany's inflation rate dropped to 2.1% y/y in April, down from 2.2% in March but above the market estimate of 2.0%. This was the lowest level in seven months, largely driven by lower energy prices. The more significant story was that core CPI, which excludes energy and food and is a more reliable indicator of inflation trends, rose to 2.9% from 2.6%. This will be of concern to policymakers at the European Central Bank, as will the increase in services inflation. The ECB has to balance the new environment of US tariffs and counter-tariffs against the US, which will raise inflation, along with the strong rise in the euro and fiscal stimulus which will boost upward inflationary pressures. The ECB will be keeping a close look at Friday's eurozone inflation report, which is expected to follow the German numbers. Headline CPI is projected to drop to 2.1% from 2.2%, while the core rate is expected to rise to 2.5% from 2.4%. The central bank would prefer to continue delivering gradual rate cuts in order to boost anemic growth, but this will be contingent on inflation remaining contained. The markets were braced for soft US numbers but the data was worse than expected. ADP employment change declined to 62 thousand, down from a revised 147 thousand and below the market estimate of 115 thousand. This was followed by first-estimate GDP for Q1, which declined by 0.3% q/q, down sharply from 2.4% in Q4 and lower than the market estimate of 0.3%. This marked the first quarterly decline in the economy since Q1 2022. The weak GDP reading was driven by a surge in imports ahead of US tariffs taking effect and a drop in consumer spending. EUR/USD has pushed below support at 1.1362 and is testing support at 1.1338. Below, there is support at 1.1306 There is resistance at 1.1394 and 1.1418
by OANDA
German inflation higher than expected, Euro dipsThe euro is calm on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1334, down 0.45% on the day. Germany's inflation rate dropped to 2.1% y/y in April, down from 2.2% in March but above the market estimate of 2.0%. This was the lowest level in seven months, largely driven by lower energy prices. The more significant story was that core CPI, which excludes energy and food and is a more reliable indicator of inflation trends, rose to 2.9% from 2.6%. This will be of concern to policymakers at the European Central Bank, as will the increase in services inflation. The ECB has to balance the new environment of US tariffs and counter-tariffs against the US, which will raise inflation, along with the strong rise in the euro and fiscal stimulus which will boost upward inflationary pressures. The ECB will be keeping a close look at Friday's eurozone inflation report, which is expected to follow the German numbers. Headline CPI is projected to drop to 2.1% from 2.2%, while the core rate is expected to rise to 2.5% from 2.4%. The central bank would prefer to continue delivering gradual rate cuts in order to boost anemic growth, but this will be contingent on inflation remaining contained. The markets were braced for soft US numbers but the data was worse than expected. ADP employment change declined to 62 thousand, down from a revised 147 thousand and below the market estimate of 115 thousand. This was followed by first-estimate GDP for Q1, which declined by 0.3% q/q, down sharply from 2.4% in Q4 and lower than the market estimate of 0.3%. This marked the first quarterly decline in the economy since Q1 2022. The weak GDP reading was driven by a surge in imports ahead of US tariffs taking effect and a drop in consumer spending.
by OANDA
EURUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation: Hello, everyone! I hope you're doing well. I’d like to share my analysis of EUR-USD with you. Looking at the chart, EUR-USD is currently in a price range. After reaching the top of the range, I expect it to move toward the bottom of the range, and I anticipate a breakdown below the range's bottom. 📉 Expectation: Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks the bottom of the range, I expect the price to move toward my first target at 1.12142. 💡 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: Top of the range Support: Bottom of the range 💬 What are your thoughts on EUR-USD this week? Let me know in the comments! Trade safe
Short
by PouyanTradeFX
1
EUR/JPY for JPY Strength into BoJEUR/JPY has held resistance at a familiar spot on the chart, from the 163.00 level up to 163.38. This has been the same resistance that's held in the pair for the past seven weeks and for those looking for JPY-strength around tonight's BoJ rate decision, this can be an attractive venue. USD/JPY would have the complication of the 140.00 level which has been major support but for EUR/JPY, the broader context here remains digestion, with a descending triangle formation holding on the weekly chart. Key support for the formation is at 155.00 and logically the 160.00 level looms large for downside setups as that price held a pensive series of tests earlier in April. - js
by FOREXcom
USD/JPY Massive Support into BoJThe 140.00 level in USD/JPY has so far held the lows in 2025 after that price did the same in 2024. There was just one day of testing below that price last year and it was around the weekly open of the first FOMC rate cut for the last cycle. Sellers couldn't find much momentum below and a couple days later, when the Fed did actually cut, price put in a higher-low and then eventually reversed in Q4. But at this stage it looks more and more like we'll see eventual tightening of rates between the U.S. and Japan as inflation in Japan remains elevated and growth in the US somewhat weak. Timing remains the issue and USD/JPY has brewed several bear traps already this year. It seems unlikely that the BoJ will be too aggressive towards rate moves with the uncertainty of tariffs looming overhead, but tonight's rate decision is a quarterly meeting meaning the Bank will issue updated outlooks, and when they last did this on January 27th it allowed for a lower-low in USD/JPY that continued to spiral lower until the 140.00 bounce that showed last week. For resistance, 145.00 is a major level as this was prior support that hasn't yet been tested as resistance. - js
by FOREXcom
EURUSD meltdown incoming | 🔹 Pair / TF | EUR/USD, 4 h → Lower Timeframes | | 🔹 Bias | Bearish (potential reversal after reaching higher resistance, with RFI divergence) | 📊 Key Levels (Adjusted based on higher price) Level: ~1.13900 - ~1.14100 (Potential Immediate Resistance Zone - based on possible previous highs or Fibonacci levels not visible on the prior chart) Level: ~1.14954 (Potential Higher Resistance - extrapolating from previous chart structure) Level: ~1.11504 (Previous R1 - now potential support if price reverses significantly) Level: ~1.10777 (Previous Resistance Zone - now potential stronger support if price falls further) 🚨 Trigger (Adjusted) With an entry at 1.1375, you are likely anticipating a reversal from a higher resistance level. Look for bearish rejection signals (bearish engulfing, pin bar) forming around the ~1.13900 - ~1.14100 zone or potentially higher. Crucially, examine the RFI on the lower timeframes (if possible). If the price made a higher high to reach 1.1375, but the RFI did not make a corresponding higher high (or showed a lower high), this would indicate bearish divergence, strengthening the case for a potential reversal. ✅ Confirmation (Adjusted) Confirm bearish candlestick patterns on lower timeframes (1h, 15m) at the potential resistance levels. Look for bearish divergence on the RFI. This is a strong signal that upward momentum is waning. If you are using RSI, watch for a break below the 50 level after the bearish price action. Increasing selling volume on lower timeframes during the rejection would add confirmation. 🎯 Entry & Stops (Adjusted) | 🔶 Entry | 1.1375 (Your Given Entry Price) | | 🔴 Stop-Loss | Above the high of the rejection candle and potentially above the ~1.14100 level or the next visible resistance, depending on your risk tolerance (e.g., ~1.14250 - ~1.14400) | Your entry is already executed. Now focus on stop-loss placement and target levels. Risk: Manage your position size according to your risk tolerance and the chosen stop-loss level. 🎯 Profit Targets (Adjusted) | Target | Level | Pips (approximate from 1.1375) | RRR (depending on stop-loss) | | :----- | :--------- | :----------------------------- | :--------------------------- | | T1 | ~1.13000 | ~75 | Varies | | T2 | ~1.12500 | ~125 | Varies | | T3 | ~1.11504 | ~225 | Varies | Consider taking partial profits at each target level. Adjust your stop-loss to breakeven or in profit as the trade moves in your favor. ⚙️ Trade Management (Adjusted) Monitor the RFI closely for any signs of bullish resurgence. If the RFI starts breaking back above previous highs or its trendline (if one forms), consider reducing your position or closing the trade. Pay attention to price action at potential support levels. Be prepared to adjust your targets based on market conditions. 🔑 Rationale (Adjusted) With an entry at 1.1375, the trade idea is based on a potential reversal from a higher, currently identified resistance level. Bearish divergence on the RFI (if present) would be a key supporting factor, indicating that the recent upward move lacked strong momentum. Bearish price action at resistance would confirm the selling pressure. Targeting previous support levels offers logical profit objectives. ⚡ Highlight (Adjusted): Given your entry at 1.1375, the strategy now revolves around a potential bearish reversal from a higher resistance level, with a strong emphasis on identifying bearish divergence on the RFI to support the short trade. Monitor price action and the RFI closely for confirmation and trade management.
Short
by Delast2
EUR/CAD – Bearish Momentum ContinuesEUR/CAD – Bearish Momentum Continues EUR/CAD remains in a strong bearish trend, consistently printing a series of Lower Highs (LHs) and Lower Lows (LLs). The market structure confirms ongoing downward momentum. The recent candle also closed bearish, reinforcing the trend. Since the bearish structure is still intact, this could be a good opportunity to open a new short position, following the trend. Trade Suggestion: Entry: Sell at market price Stop Loss & Take Profit: As indicated in the chart
Short
by asimafridi
Bearish reversal off 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?NZD/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.5949 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.5979 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 0.5904 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Dollar looking at worst month since November 2022 | FX ResearchThe US dollar is demonstrating some resilience despite recent setbacks, perhaps with the market focusing on the upcoming Q1 GDP data which analysts have downgraded to expect a contraction against a consensus forecast of 0.2%. Meanwhile, the dollar looks set to put in its weakest monthly performance since November of 2022 despite what had been some reports of dollar demand on month-end rebalancings earlier today. In Australia, the Q1 CPI report showed inflation slightly above expectations but the core trim mean dropped, aligning with the RBA's target range for the first time since Q4 of 2021, supporting expectations of 25 basis point rate cut on May the 20th. Eurozone Q1 GDP outperformed at 0.4% Q over Q, doubling forecasts, while President Trump was back at it criticizing Fed Chair Powell, also touting his own economic policies. Looking ahead, we get Canada GDP, the already mentioned US GDP, and other US reads including ADP employment, Chicago PMIs, personal income and spending, and pending home sales. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets