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EUR/USD Wave 5 Topped? Correction Incoming to 1.076FX_IDC:EURUSD PEPPERSTONE:EURUSD OANDA:EURUSD 📈 Chart Breakdown 🔢 Elliott Impulse Wave Completed: Waves (1) to (5) appear to form a clean 5-wave impulse structure upward. Final wave (5) is diverging on the oscillator (RSI), signaling potential bullish exhaustion. 🧾 ABC Correction Expected: After the 5-wave impulse, you project an ABC corrective move: Wave A: initial drop Wave B: partial recovery Wave C: deeper move likely toward the 1.07680 support (blue horizontal line) ⚠️ Bearish RSI Divergence: The label "Div" confirms bearish divergence between price and RSI → typical at end of Wave (5). 🧠 Summary: Structure: 5-wave impulse + projected 3-wave correction Bias: Short-term bearish targeting 1.07680 Confirmation: Look for break below support or trendline + momentum shift
Short
by Trwin
EURNZD Potential Breakout or Reversal? | Technical Analysis EURNZD Potential Breakout or Reversal? | Technical Analysis 🚀🔄 The chart illustrates a key technical setup on the EURNZD pair with both bullish and bearish possibilities depending on price action near critical zones. 🔍 Technical Highlights: Bearish Harmonic Pattern Completed 📉 A harmonic structure has formed and completed near the resistance zone (~1.9500), triggering a bearish move towards the target at 1.90688. Major Resistance Zone 🔺 Marked between 1.9450 - 1.9500, where previous price action showed strong rejection (highlighted by the red arrow). This remains the key zone to break for further upside. Support & Breakout Zone 🟦 The price bounced off the support zone around 1.9068 - 1.9100, aligning with trendline support and a previous structure level. This zone also aligns with the target of the bearish harmonic move. Trendline Retest & Bullish Continuation Possibility 🔼 The price broke above the bearish leg and is now consolidating. If price closes above 1.9350-1.9400, a potential breakout toward the 1.9500 resistance zone is expected (blue arrow). 🔄 Scenarios to Watch: ✅ Bullish Case: Break and hold above 1.9400 Target: 1.9500 Resistance Zone Confirmation: Strong bullish candles with volume above current range ❌ Bearish Case: Rejection at current level (near 1.9350-1.9400) Target: 1.9068, the harmonic completion target and support zone Confirmation: Bearish engulfing/rejection candle with trendline break 📌 Conclusion: EURNZD is at a crucial decision point. Watch closely for a breakout above or rejection from the current price range to determine whether the pair will retest highs or complete the bearish target move.
by MrStellanSight
7
More upside for EUHi traders, Last week EU started with a gap down. After the fill it swept the lows and after that it made the next impulsive wave up. So next week after the finish of the correction down we could see more upside. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for the finish of the correction down and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower time frame. After a small correction down you could trade longs again. If you want to learn more about trading with FVG's, liquidity sweeps and Wave analysis, then make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
Long
by EduwaveTrading
1
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 27, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the course of this week's trading session, the Eurodollar has exhibited a strong rebound, successfully retesting and surpassing the Outer Currency Rally threshold of 1.163. Recent analyses suggest that the Euro is poised for further upward advancement, with the key target to reach the outer currency rally target of 1.177. Nonetheless, it is essential to recognize the possibility of a subsequent decline to the Mean Support level of 1.160 before a definitive upward movement.
by TradeSelecter
Forecast USDJPY Contrary to popular belief, USD/JPY is structurally in a long-term bearish trend since 1971 on a logarithmic scale. What appears to be a recovery is in fact a technical retracement within a broader secular downtrend. A historic hidden bearish divergence is forming: the RSI has been gradually rising, while the price continues to print lower highs over the decades. This reflects a momentum squeeze within the bearish structure. We may be standing at the edge of a major rejection zone, where the long-term downtrend could reassert itself forcefully. The market is quietly preparing for a powerful bearish continuation.
Short
by Kanounsyphax
Forecast USDJPY This is not financial advice. Educational purpose only." I am preparing to take a short position on USDJPY starting next week, in alignment with the upcoming rollover of futures contracts. My analysis is based on a combination of technical, macroeconomic, behavioral, and institutional elements. From a technical perspective, a clear bearish reversal divergence is visible on the weekly chart using the 21-period RSI based on HLCC/4. While the price is making higher highs, momentum is weakening, indicating a loss of bullish strength. This setup is reinforced by a long-term continuation divergence that has been forming since the major tops of 1971, suggesting a possible terminal phase in the current cycle. COT data supports this view. Large speculators have been steadily reducing their long positions on USDJPY over recent weeks. More significantly, these same institutional players have begun accumulating long positions on Japanese yen futures (6J), often a precursor to a monetary rotation. The upcoming rollover of futures contracts next week could trigger a more pronounced shift in institutiona positioning. Macroeconomic data from the United States also confirms a slowdown. Core PCE came in at 0.1%, below expectations. Nonfarm Payrolls underperformed, and the ISM Services Index dropped below 50, signaling contraction. In contrast, Japan maintains stable inflation around 2.3%, which gives the Bank of Japan room to begin policy normalization. The yield differential is starting to narrow, a historically bearish factor for USDJPY. Finally, market sentiment remains skewed. Retail traders are still heavily positioned long on USDJPY. Such imbalances, where retail crowds are long and institutional players are exiting, often precede sharp reversals. If the expected institutional reallocation materializes after the futures rollover, I will enter a short position. Technical, fundamental, and cyclical factors are now fully aligned. "This is a personal market view. Always do your own research before making trading decisions."
Short
by Kanounsyphax
2
When Charts Lie: How Fundamentals Rescued My Forex TradingEvery trader knows the frustration: your analysis is technically flawless, but the market moves against you. I learned this brutally in Q1 2024 when my USD/CAD short—backed by textbook bearish divergence and order block rejection—got steamrolled by a 190-pip rally after Canada’s surprise oil export announcement. The Blind Spot in Pure Technicals Price action traders often dismiss fundamentals as "noise," but three scenarios consistently break chart-based systems: Policy Surprises (SNB removing EUR/CHF floor) Geopolitical Shocks (Rubles during Ukraine invasion) Structural Shifts (BOJ abandoning YCC) These events share one trait: they change the market’s fundamental DNA, invalidating historical patterns. A Practical Filter I need to train myself to do something like this: To overlay two fundamental checks before technical entries: Central Bank Calendar No trades 12 hours before scheduled meetings Monitor yield spreads (10YR US vs. DE) Commodity Links AUD/USD: Iron ore inventories USD/CAD: WTI backwardation Case Study: April 2024 GBP/USD Technicals suggested continuation above 1.2700 Fundamental red flag: UK real wages shrinking Outcome: False breakout, 140-pip drop Your Turn Try this today: On your next trade, ask: Is there scheduled event risk? Does this align with rate expectations? Are commodities/equities confirming? The goal isn’t perfection—it’s avoiding obvious mismatches. For me, I read my own words on what should be done, and most probably, I won't do it. I think the above is too much. I believe there must be an easier way to merge Technical and Fundamental Analysis.
Education
by TheInvestor_Diary
EUR/USD – Consolidation and Uptrend Channel Analysis!Price is holding inside a well-defined uptrend channel on the 1-hour timeframe. The trend remains bullish as long as price respects the channel structure. Currently, we see consolidation near the upper zone, showing market indecision. A breakout above consolidation will confirm bullish continuation. If this happens, buyers can look for momentum entries to the upside. However, if price breaks down below channel support and consolidates under it, the bias will shift to bearish and open the way for deeper corrections. Target in case of breakdown: 1.1400 – strong support and liquidity area. Trading Plan: Stay bullish while price is inside the channel. Only turn bearish on a clean break and retest below the channel. Avoid trading inside the middle of consolidation to reduce false signals. Patience and confirmation are essential before taking any positions.
Short
by JosProfessionalTrader
GBPNZD BUY TRADE PLAN🔥 Pair + Date: GBP/NZD – 28 June 2025 📋 Plan Overview Parameter Details Type Breakout Stop Order (Conditional Plan) Direction Buy Stop Status Conditional – Awaiting break of 2.2670 + confirmation R:R 3:1 Confidence ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (90%) upon confirmation 📈 Market Bias GBP/NZD is compressing within a H4 range with clear supply lid near 2.2670. Breakout above this level aligns with bullish D1/H4 structure and GBP macro resilience. 🔰 Confidence Factors HTF bias alignment (D1/H4 bullish structure) Clear range boundary breakout setup Confirmation required: H1 close + volume spike + no rejection wick Session filter: London/NY required 📍 Entry Zone (Trigger) Buy Stop: 2.2673 (2.2670 + 3 pip buffer) ❗ Stop Loss Reasoning SL: 2.2620 Placed below last breakout compression swing low, weighted by ATR volatility to guard against false breaks. 🎯 Take Profit Targets TP Price R:R Description TP1 2.2720 1.2:1 First liquidity shelf TP2 2.2780 3:1 H4 supply cluster TP3 2.2820 4.5:1 D1 swing high supply zone 🧠 Management Strategy SL to breakeven at TP1 50% partial at TP1 30% partial at TP2 Trail 20% for TP3 Full exit on H1 BOS against breakout ⚠ Entry Confirmation Conditions (Mandatory) H1 body close above 2.2670 H1 volume spike No immediate rejection wick on break Session: London/NY active ⏳ Validity H1 setup: 12–18h post-break confirmation ❌ Invalidation Price closes back under 2.2670 after break H1 BOS against breakout 🌐 Macro Snapshot GBP sentiment: +6 (risk-on tone, GBP stable) NZD: slight risk-on fade DXY: neutral sideways No immediate red flag data 📋 Final Trade Summary 👉 Buy Stop 2.2673 | SL 2.2625 | TP1 2.2720 | TP2 2.2780 | TP3 2.2820 👉 R:R minimum: 3:1 at TP2 👉 Status: Conditional – Awaiting break + confirm
Long
by jibkhan111
A valid Demand zone has been spotted on H4 timeframe📊 GBP/USD 4H Analysis – Smart Money Structure in Play On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD has been exhibiting a clear bullish structure following a series of Breaks of Structure (BOS) and higher lows. Here’s a breakdown of my analysis and current trade idea: 1. Market Structure We saw a clear BOS around June 20, indicating a shift in direction as price broke above previous swing highs. A second BOS occurred shortly after, confirming bullish intent with strong momentum candles. This was followed by a minor retracement and another bullish rally — forming a higher low supported by a Short-Term Support (SS). 2. Fair Value Gap (FVG) During the bullish impulse, an FVG was left behind between the BOS levels and the rally base. Price respected this FVG zone as a demand imbalance and pushed higher, reinforcing the presence of institutional interest. 3. Supply Rejection & Entry Price has recently tapped into a minor supply area (highlighted by the red zone) and showed early signs of rejection via bearish candles. This coincides with a premium pricing area in the current bullish leg, providing a potential short-term sell opportunity targeting liquidity below. 4. Demand Zone Below The next major Demand Zone lies between 1.33900 – 1.34600 (highlighted on the chart). This area aligns with a previous SS and the origin of the bullish BOS, suggesting a high-probability reversal zone if price retraces that far. 🎯 Trade Idea Bias: Short-term bearish into a higher timeframe bullish continuation. Entry: Taken at 1.37449 (reaction to supply). Stop Loss: Above supply zone – around 1.37628. Take Profit: Just above the demand zone at 1.35993, locking in profit before potential reversal. Risk-to-Reward: Approx. 1:5 Final Thoughts This trade idea aligns with a smart money framework — BOS confirms directional intent, FVG and SS show institutional footprints, and the supply zone gives a clean entry. If price aggressively taps into the demand zone and shows bullish confirmation (engulfing, BOS, or FVG fill), I’ll look to flip long for a continuation of the larger uptrend.
by eaonimisi
1
USDJPY Continue Bearish TrendThis USD/JPY chart presents a short bias based on multi-timeframe analysis and structure: * **Trend Summary (Text on Chart)**: * **Weekly (W)**: Bearish * **Daily (D)**: Bullish * **12H**: Mixed (Bullish & Bearish) * **6H, 4H**: Bearish → Overall sentiment: **60–80% Bearish Bias** * **Technical Highlights**: * Price is forming a **rising wedge**, typically a bearish reversal pattern. * The pair is currently testing a **Daily Area of Interest (AOI)** near 144.665–144.963, suggesting potential resistance. * Price broke out of the wedge with a projected retest and continuation down. * Target zone is below **143.468 (Daily AOI)** and extends toward **142.823**, suggesting a potential short setup with a favorable risk/reward ratio. * Red and blue EMAs indicate price is below the 200 EMA and flirting with the 50 EMA, adding confluence to the short bias. This analysis implies an anticipated breakdown from the wedge with follow-through to the downside if bearish momentum continues. Multi-timeframe confluence is mostly bearish: Weekly, 6H, and 4H are clearly bearish. 12H is mixed, and only the Daily is bullish. This gives an overall 60–80% bearish bias. Rising wedge pattern: Price is forming a bearish wedge, typically signaling a reversal or breakdown. It's losing momentum near resistance. Price is near a Daily Area of Interest (AOI): The pair is testing a known resistance zone. It has failed to break and hold above it convincingly. Expecting a break and retest of structure: You're anticipating the wedge to break down, retest the structure or AOI, and then continue bearish. Target is aligned with a lower Daily AOI: You have a clear target near 142.800, where price previously reacted — offering good risk-to-reward for the short.
Short
by andreabiondo13
EURNZD BUY TRADE PLAN🔥 EUR/NZD – 28 June 2025 TRADE PLAN 🔥 📋 Plan Overview Parameter Details Type Intra-Day Direction Long Status Pending (Awaiting zone tap + confirmation) R:R 1:3+ Confidence High (85%) 📈 Market Bias EUR/NZD remains in a bullish structure on H4/D1, consolidating after the breakout above 1.9300 zone. We are looking at a continuation play from a refined M15-H1 demand zone after a minor retrace. 🔰 Confidence Factors ✅ HTF confluence: D1 + H4 bullish structure ✅ M15 OB + H1 BOS ✅ Clear volume alignment — recent breakout supported by high volume ✅ No macro/fundamental contradictions 📍 Entry Zone(s) 🟩 Primary Buy Zone: 1.9315 – 1.9290 (H1 OB + M15 refinement + volume base + inducement layer) ❗ Stop Loss Reasoning SL: 1.9255 Placed well below the OB + liquidity sweep low, outside minor wicks, beyond noise zone. 🎯 Take Profit Targets 🥇 TP1: 1.9365 (minor H1 structure high, ~50 pips / ~1.5R) 🥈 TP2: 1.9400 (HTF resistance, ~90 pips / ~3R) 🥉 TP3: 1.9450 (extended runner, swing high test) 🧠 Management Logic Risk 1% of account on this setup Take 33% at TP1 → move SL to breakeven Take 33% at TP2 → trail remainder on H1 fractals Exit all if H1 BOS down confirmed ⚠️ Entry Confirmation Conditions M15 bullish engulfing or BOS in zone NY or London session volume spike Preferable: SMT divergence with correlated pairs ⏳ Trade Validity Window H1 setup = 12-24 hours ❌ Invalidation Clean close below 1.9260 on H1 HTF shift bearish (D1 rejection candle, H4 BOS down) 🌐 Macro Snapshot EUR relatively supported by broader risk tone NZD quiet macro tone, no key news Cross: EUR/USD holding above supports Sentiment score: +7/10 (risk-on bias, no major headwinds) ✅ Summary 👉 Entry Zone: 1.9315–1.9290 👉 SL: 1.9255 👉 TP1: 1.9365 👉 TP2: 1.9400 👉 TP3: 1.9450 👉 Risk: ~30-50 pips 👉 Reward (TP2): ~90+ pips → R:R = 1:3+ Status: Pending zone tap + confirmation
Long
by jibkhan111