Forex market
AUD/USD Coils Below Critical ResistanceThe June range is preserved heading into the close of the month with a massive outside-weekly reversal taking Aussie back into key resistance on Friday. Note that momentum is approaching the 60-level for the first time this year and a break higher alongside a breach above 6550 could fuel a substantial rally here- watch the weekly close.
Initial support rests with the February high-week close (HWC) at 6357 and is backed closely by 6290/6315- a region defined by the yearly low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range. Note that the median-line converges on this level over the next few weeks and we’ll reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level- a break / weekly close below would threaten downtrend resumption toward the next major technical consideration at 6162/79.
A topside breach / close above this key pivot zone is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance with key resistance seen at the 2019 lows near 6670. Ultimately a break above the upper parallel (blue) would be needed to suggest a more significant trend reversal is underway with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2024 HWC / yearly open near 6795-6810 and 6900.
Bottom line: An outside-weekly reversal has covered the entire monthly range with the Australian Dollar now testing critical resistance for an eighth-consecutive week. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6550 needed to fuel the next move.
-MB
Yen rises sharply, Tokyo Core CPI nextThe Japanese yen has edged higher on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.57, up 0.16% on the day.
Tokyo Core CPI surprised on the downside in June, falling to 3.1% y/y. This was down sharply from the 3.6% gain in May and below the market estimate of 3.3%. This was the the first slowdown in Tokyo core inflation since February. The decline was largely driven by a renewal of fuel subsidies and a reduction in water charges.
Despite the drop, core inflation remains well above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, maintaining expectations for another rate hike in the second half of the year. BoJ Governor Ueda has signaled that the Bank will raise rates if it is confident that wage growth is sustained, which is critical to maintaining inflation at the 2% target. However, this week's BOJ Summary of Opinions showed that some members are more dovish, given global trade tensions and the bumpy US-Japan trade talks. Japan has said it will not agree to US tariffs of 25% on Japanese cars, and six rounds of talks in the past two months have failed to produce a deal.
The Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, accelerated in May and was higher than expected. The index rose 2.7% y/y up from an upwardly revised 2.6% in May and above the consensus of 2.6%. Monthly, the index rose 0.2%, up from 0.1% which was also the consensus. This was a three-month high and will boost the case for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the July meeting.
USD/JPY faces resistance at 144.49 and 144.64
144.31 and 144.16 are the next support levels
EURJPY BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISEURJPY has just broken out of a well-defined bullish pennant pattern on the 4H timeframe, confirming strong continuation potential to the upside. The price is currently hovering around 169.60 after consolidating in a tight structure, respecting both dynamic trendline support and horizontal resistance. This breakout signals renewed bullish momentum, and I'm now targeting the 172.10 zone as the next significant resistance level. The structure is clean, volume supported the breakout, and price action is aligned with the dominant uptrend.
Despite a relatively quiet start to the week—largely influenced by global risk-off sentiment surrounding Middle East tensions—EURJPY has held firm. Now that geopolitical jitters are easing slightly, yen weakness is resurfacing. The Bank of Japan remains firmly dovish, maintaining ultra-loose policy, while the Euro is supported by hawkish commentary from the ECB as inflation in the eurozone remains sticky. This divergence continues to fuel the long-term bullish bias for EURJPY.
Fundamentally, Japanese economic indicators remain soft, and there's still no clarity on when the BoJ will meaningfully shift policy. Meanwhile, EUR zone confidence indicators have stabilized, and speculation is growing around the ECB holding rates higher for longer into Q3. With widening yield differentials and a favorable risk sentiment return, this pair is positioned well for upside movement. Current momentum supports the probability of reaching the 172.00–172.10 area as risk appetite rebuilds across markets.
Technically and fundamentally aligned, EURJPY offers one of the strongest bullish continuation opportunities on the board right now. I will continue to monitor for minor dips as potential add-on areas, aiming for a full extension of the measured move from the pennant formation. Patience pays in setups like this where structure, sentiment, and macro all align.
EURUSD Lots of Bearish Clues Popping UpThis is an update to my last post, I'm still waiting for that 4hr candle to close below the last. However, now I'm starting to spot more bearish indications on the 1hr timeframe.
First thing I'm noticing is the RSI divergence show that the bullish strength is weakening. RSI on the 4hr + the 1hr are heading lower. Now I'm still waiting for that 4 hour to close below the last but I also want to see this ascending trendline break and hold below as well.
In the event we break below this trendline, I'll be looking to go short with my target plotted on the chart.
Gbpusd Daily_TF Analysis within the bearish flag GBP/USD Daily Timeframe Analysis
1. The price is still trading within a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart.
2.Currently, the price is in a significant high on the higher timeframe.
3. There has been a recent breakout of resistance on the Daily Timeframe.
4. The breakout occurred at the same spot as the trendline breakout.
Expectation: We can anticipate a potential move to the downside for a retest of the previous resistance breakout level and the broken trendline. After a successful retest, the overall bullish trend may continue.
USD/JPY Bearish Gartley Pattern Completion - SELL SETUP
📊 Trade Overview
Pair: USD/JPY
Pattern: Bearish Gartley
Timeframe: 15 minutes
Direction: SHORT
Setup Type: Harmonic Pattern Completion + FVG Confluence
🎯 Market Analysis
The price is evidently bearish according to market structure, currently in a retracement phase, and I expect a bearish continuation at the 61.8 Fibonacci level of the wave.
The harmonic pattern establishes an 88.6 Fibonacci ratio for bearish entry with a balanced and low-risk R/R of 1:1.82 (profit - risk).
Usdjpy D_TF, A symmetric triangle USD/JPY Daily Timeframe Analysis
A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily chart, indicating that a potential breakout could occur in either direction. If the pattern plays out, we should be looking for a breakout and retest of the trendline towards the downside.
Eurusd M_Tf analysis Eurusd - MTF Analysis
Test of support : @ 1.16642, a slight breakout occurred, which could be interpreted as a stop-loss hunt. Additionally, there was a trendline breakout.
Expectation : A potential pullback to around 1.11873, which is a resistance level that coincides with a double top pattern. This could also serve as a retest of the previously broken trendline.
Continuation : After the pullback and retest, the uptrend could potentially resume, with a target of approximately 1.218628.
EURNZD: Bearish Continuation & Short Trade
EURNZD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short EURNZD
Entry - 1.9350
Sl - 1.9422
Tp - 1.9206
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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GBPUSD: Short Signal with Entry/SL/TP
GBPUSD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GBPUSD
Entry - 1.3710
Stop - 1.3765
Take - 1.3604
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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USDCAD Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for USDCAD is below:
The market is trading on 1.3649 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.3697
Recommended Stop Loss - 1.3624
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Retest of New Highs and Pullback Zone✨ By MJTrading:
Chart Overview:
AUDUSD reached a 2025 new high around 0.65600 before pulling back sharply. Price broke out of a consolidation wedge and is now retesting the prior breakout and dynamic support area.
🔹 Key Points:
Structure: Clear impulse move to new highs, followed by corrective pullback.
Support Zone: Blue box ~0.6480–0.6500 could act as a demand area if price extends lower.
EMAs: Price testing the 60 EMA (~0.6523) after losing short-term momentum.
Trade Setup:
Entry: 0.65250
SL: 0.65510
TP1: 0.65000
(Please Manage your Risk)( Ideal: 1% Per Trade)
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish reaction from current EMA support or the blue demand zone.
Deeper retracement if price fails to hold above 0.6500.
💡 Note:
This chart highlights how prior consolidation and breakout zones can offer potential retest entries in trending markets.
Thanks for your time an attention...
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EURUSD: Will Keep Falling! Here is Why:
Balance of buyers and sellers on the EURUSD pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the sellers, therefore is it only natural that we go short on the pair.
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EURUSD: Strong Growth Ahead! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 1.17284 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 1.17538 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURAUD: Weak Market & Bearish Continuation
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the EURAUD pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
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AUD/USD Parallel Channel Setup – Breakout or Pullback in PlayThe AUD/USD pair is trading within a clearly defined ascending parallel channel, with consistent rejections from both the upper resistance zone near 0.6550–0.6560 and repeated bounces from the rising support area near 0.6390–0.6400. This structured price movement indicates strong channel discipline, which traders can use for high-probability breakouts or reversal plays.
The current price action is approaching the upper boundary of the resistance, and a decisive breakout here could lead to a bullish rally toward the projected target.
📈 Bullish Breakout Scenario
If the price breaks and closes above the resistance zone (above 0.6560), it will confirm a bullish breakout from the channel. Based on the height of the channel, the projected breakout target is 0.67365, which is derived by measuring the vertical distance between support and resistance and projecting it upward from the breakout point. This could signal a major trend continuation in favor of the bulls.
📉 Bearish Rejection Scenario
If the price once again gets rejected at the resistance zone, a corrective move is expected toward the support area around 0.6400. The structure suggests that unless a breakout occurs, price may continue to oscillate within the rising channel. The next bearish leg could form a lower high and test the trendline support again.
🧭 Trading Strategy Outlook
Buy Breakout Strategy:
Entry: Above 0.6560
SL: Below breakout candle
TP: 0.67365 (projected target)
Sell Rejection Strategy:
Entry: Near 0.6550 resistance
SL: Above 0.6570
TP: 0.6400 support zone
This is a neutral-to-bullish setup, with a potential for continuation if the resistance breaks with strength. Traders should wait for confirmation before entering.
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EURUSD – 2 Potential Intraday Setups (5-Min Chart)Chart Overview:
This 5-min EURUSD chart shows two example trade setups aligned with the main uptrend. These are shared purely for learning how to recognize and plan structured entries.
(Details are being shown in m5 chart- if this in not working for you please follow to be able to see it- as it is a private idea)
🔹 Example Trade 1 – 3rd Touch of Triangle Support
✅ Context:
Price retested the lower boundary of a broad triangle/wedge for the third time—often a strong area for reactive buys in an uptrend.
✅ Plan Concept:
Entry: Reversal signal on the 3rd touch.
Stop: Below the signal bar low.
Target: Mid to upper wedge area (or TP2).
🔹 Example Trade 2 – Breakout of Descending Flag
✅ Context:
After bouncing off trendline support, price formed a descending flag consolidation.
✅ Plan Concept:
Entry: Break and close above flag resistance.
Stop: Below the strong breakout candle.
Target: Extension toward recent highs (or TP2).
💡 Important:
These examples are not signals and not executed trades—they illustrate a possible planning process for traders studying price action strategies.
💡 Why These Matter:
Both setups align with the primary uptrend, use clear structure for risk placement, and rely on confirmation before entry.
🔹 Note:
These are educational examples only, not trade signals.
💬 Do you study similar setups? Share your charts and thoughts!
Thanks for your attention and your time...
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