USDCHF - Dollar will continue to grow after FOMC?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of upward correction, we can see the supply zone and sell within that zone with appropriate risk reward. The bottom of the ascending channel will be the target of this move.
The Federal Reserve recently reduced its interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 4.75%. The Fed’s statement indicates that the “labor market has cooled,” whereas the previous statement had only mentioned a “slower job market growth.” Additionally, there appears to be a slight decline in confidence regarding inflation reduction.
Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, emphasized that he will remain in his role until the end of his term. When asked about fiscal policies, Powell stated that such matters are outside the Fed’s authority. He added that if the economy remains strong and inflation does not reach the 2% target, monetary policy adjustments may occur at a slower pace. He also highlighted that the policies of any administration or Congress could have significant economic impacts, but these effects will be evaluated alongside other factors.
The recent report on Switzerland’s consumer inflation index indicates that the global landscape has not changed significantly from the pre-COVID era. After the inflation shock of the COVID period, some banking officials speculated that the world was entering a new phase where zero or negative interest rates were unlikely, and the neutral rate would be higher. However, there is no strong evidence to support this claim, especially with the major transformations anticipated from the growth of artificial intelligence. Furthermore, many analysts believe that the risks associated with de-globalization and demographic arguments are not as compelling.
In September, the Swiss National Bank revised its inflation forecast for 2025 from 1.1% to 0.6% and also adjusted the interest rate. The inflation forecast for this year was revised down from 1.3% to 1.2%. The next meeting of the Swiss National Bank is scheduled for December 12, and if current conditions persist (including energy prices and exchange rates), a 50-basis-point rate cut could become a strong option.
Deutsche Bank also sees an increasing likelihood of a return to negative interest rates, noting factors that could lead to higher risk and a stronger Swiss franc. These challenges are not exclusive to Switzerland; Europe as a whole is facing similar issues. Deutsche Bank has indicated that, currently, inflation in Europe does not pose a significant problem.
