SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-23 : Rally-111 PatternToday's RALLY pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will continue to push higher, possibly breaking upper resistance near $550/493.
As I suggested in this video, I believe the upward price trend bias will continue into Friday (4-25) and suddenly shift into a BEARISH price trend/bias early next week.
The May 2-5 Major Bottom cycle low, my research predicts, will happen and should prompt a fairly strong downward price trend as we near the end of April and head into early May.
Gold and Silver will likely consolidate a bit over the next 24-48 hours. So, this is a great time to pick lower entry price levels for LONGS/CALLS.
Ultimately, I'm still expecting Gold to rally above $3750 before the end of May and attempt to target $4500++ before the end of June.
BTCUSD is moving into a potential "INVALIDATION" phase. Although I'm currently estimating the probability of that invalidation at about 20-30%, it is still a valid price trend.
I believe BTCUSD will shift into a downward price trend as the markets continue to unwind excesses through the May, July, and October lows, according to my cycles.
The big opportunity for traders over the next 48 hours is playing the upward trend bias in the SPY/QQQ - then moving into a mode of preparation for next week's breakdown/downward price trend in the SPY/QQQ.
So, play it smart. Follow the chart and don't try to be a superhero.
Play what is in front of you and prepare for the bigger price swings headed into next week and beyond.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
ETF market
IWM Has Bottomed but Not Ready Yet for Trend ShiftWhat Price Action Says:
After a sharp decline, IWM has experienced a 15% rebound, signaling the end of the bearish trend. However, this doesn't mean the market is ready to shift upward just yet.
For now, the most probable scenario is sideways movement, likely continuing through the end of Q2. A sustained upward move will require confirmation of a clear bottoming process, which has not been seen at this stage.
Key levels to watch are support at 185 and resistance at 200. Until we see more confirmation of a stable base, expect the market to remain in a consolidation phase.
$GLD short term top in $260-148 target on the downsideAMEX:GLD looks a bit extended here. I could see the possibility of GLD falling back to the $260 support at a minimum and maximum all the way down to $148
The $209 support would be the 50% retracement of the recent run. I like that as a level for a bounce.
Let's see where we end up.
$SPY bear flag target between $387-443AMEX:SPY has been consolidating in a bear flag since April 7th. Should we break down from the flag, I can see a sharp move down to the lower support levels.
I think the most likely targets are at $443 and $409. However, it's possible we can find support at the other targets as well.
I think the move likely plays out before June. Let's see where we end up bouncing.
Invalidation of the downside would be a break over $567.
Spy Road To $500 or $481๐ The Road Below $500? Here's the Case.
While bulls are still buying dips, several key signals suggest a deeper correction may be brewing โ possibly below the critical $500 psychological support zone in the coming weeks.
Technical Breakdown
Rising Wedge Breakdown on the 4H and Daily charts has triggered.
Diverging RSI โ lower highs on RSI while price pushed higher = bearish divergence.
MACD Bearish Crossover confirmed on both 1D and 4H = momentum shift.
Volume Analysis shows increased selling on red candles = institutional distribution.
SMA50 Breach likely โ and SMA200 sits just under $500, a magnet if fear accelerates.
๐ง Market Sentiment
Put/Call Ratio has spiked to 1.20+, suggesting rising hedging activity.
CNN Fear & Greed Index is shifting toward Fear.
Social media chatter (Twitter/X & Reddit) has turned skeptical โ fewer breakout calls, more risk-off talk.
๐ฐ Macro Headlines Fuel the Case
Powellโs latest "higher for longer" interest rate remarks = bearish for growth names.
Earnings misses from key megacaps (GOOGL, AAPL) = cracks in the leaders.
Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and China trade fears = added volatility.
Key Levels to Watch:
$507โ$510 = current distribution zone (supply).
$500 = major psychological & technical level.
$491 = unfilled liquidity gap (volume imbalance) โ very likely magnet.
Final Thought:
This isn't fear โ it's data-backed caution. Until we reclaim $510 with volume and conviction, a retest of $500 and possibly a sweep below is the more probable path.
Stay smart. Stay hedged. As Always Safe Trades I will guide the way.
SPY Setting Up for a Breakout? Gamma, Liquidity & TA Aligning ๐GEX Analysis (Options Sentiment)โจSPY is showing an impressive surge off the 508 HVL zone, with a clean stair-step climb supported by options flow. Gamma exposure is shifting favorably:
* Strongest Call Wall sits at 528โ530, where we see the highest positive NETGEXโaka the Gamma Wall.
* Price is currently testing the 536 level, and the bulls are targeting 549 and potentially 561+ if momentum continues.
* Options Oscillator shows notable GEX alignment (๐ข๐ข๐ข) and IVR 48.8, suggesting room for more expansion.
โก๏ธ Calls are in control (48.6%), and no major PUT pressure remains above 508. With IV contraction, theta decay is less brutal. This opens the door for short-dated call entries (0DTE to 3DTE) above 530.31 with stops below 526.61.
Price Action & Trading PlanโจOn the 1H chart, SPY has broken out from a CHoCH + BOS structure, and weโre currently in a bullish continuation move.
* Trend Strength: Strong Bullish
* Market Structure: In premium but bullish hold.
* Candle Volume: Thin, but breakout is supported by prior strong demand.
* Setup: Long is forming โ waiting for follow-through.
๐ Key Levels:
* Entry: Above 530.31
* Targets: 549 (RRR 1), 561.53 (RRR 2)
* Invalidation: Below 526.61
๐ง My ThoughtsโจSPY is building momentum and options are reinforcing the move. The breakout through the HVL zone, combined with SMC-confirmed structure and GEX tailwinds, tells me the path of least resistance is up. Volume isnโt overly strong yet, so we need to monitor follow-through and not get trapped if a reversal forms near 540โ549. If bulls defend 530, this could turn into a "home run" leg into the week.
๐จ DisclaimerโจThis analysis is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage your risk accordingly.
$SPY & $SPX Blocked @ the 1hr200MA, Daily 35EMA, Downtrend & GapThe 35EMA across timeframes really doesnโt disappoint. This is the Daily timeframe.
We had the 1hr 200MA, the Downtrend Line off of all time highs, and the 35EMA on the daily timeframe. We were not going anywhere. And add to that the MASSIVE bear gap.
Good Job today if you guys took any of the trades I posted either here or on the video last night - every one closed up 100%
"SPY & SPX Stalled: 200MA, 35EMA, Downtrend & Bear Gap Clash!"
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 23 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 23, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
QQQ Ready to Rip Higher? Gamma Pressure + SMC Confirmation Align ๐
QQQ is showing strong signs of continuation as we head into the next session. Let's break it down using both Options GEX sentiment and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) structure.
๐ GEX Outlook (Options Sentiment)
* Highest positive NETGEX sits at the 445โ448 range, acting as a magnet.
* Weโve already reclaimed the HVL support at 430, and the Options Oscillator is lighting up bullish.
* Calls make up 26.9% of the flow and GEX flipped full green, meaning market makers are likely long gamma โ pushing price toward resistance.
* Resistance clusters:
* 445โ448: GEX9 and 2nd Call Wall.
* 466.35 & 479.02: Target zones from price action.
๐ก Options Trade Idea:
445C or 450C (0DTEโ2DTE) โ scalp toward the GEX magnet zone.โจ460C+ (Next Week) โ swing if price holds above 447.8 and you want to play the extension to 466โ479 range.
๐ Technical Analysis (SMC + Structure)
* MTF trend bias: 30m & 1h bullish.
* Strong bullish structure with ChoCH โ BOS โ rally confirmation.
* Thin volume during this leg up is a cautionary flag โ be selective with entries.
* Price must hold above 447.8 to remain in bullish continuation.
* If volume steps in, this could be a session high sweep with fuel left.
* Setup: Bullish Hold
* Entry: Await confirmation near 447.8 zone.
* Target 1: 466.35
* Target 2: 479.02
* Stop: Below 441.01
๐ง My Thoughts:
This looks like a textbook GEX compression + SMC breakout alignment. MM positioning is bullish and technicals are lining up with a classic continuation pattern. However, thin volume could mean a stall or trap โ Iโd stay nimble, scale in on dips, and tighten stops once we push into the 455โ460 zone.
SPY Plan Your Trade For 4-22 : Breakaway In Counter TrendToday's pattern suggests the markets are moving in a counter-trend mode and that we may see a Breakaway type of price bar.
The current trend is Bearish. Thus, I believe the current Counter-Trend is Bullish.
As many of you already know. I picked up some Calls off the lows yesterday after noticing a complete EPP pattern (Ultimate Low) setup about 75 minutes before the end of the regular trading day on 4-21.
My opinion, overall, is that we are still stuck within a consolidation phase. But that doesn't mean we can't see the SPY/QQQ move higher (toward the upper consolidation high) or roll back downward (toward the lower consolidation low).
I do believe we are moving into a moderate upward price trend over the next 3-4+ days where price will attempt to retest the 525-535+ level on the SPY, then ROLL into a top and start a sharp downtrend.
This volatility presents an incredible opportunity for traders. Staying ahead of these trends is key to improved success.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are fairly clear. We've moved into consolidation, and the price is very volatile. The Counter Trend pattern today may setup a 3-4+ day minor rally in the SPY/QQQ.
But, ultimately, I believe the SPY/QQQ will roll downward into the May Cycle lows - just as I have been predicting for the past 45+ days.
Don't get greedy. Play the immediate trend and learn to identify the EPP patterns on 5-minute charts.
Today should be a very good day for traders.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
$UVXY to $100+Unfortunately many of my charts were removed by a moderator for having private indicators on them (which I didn't realize was a thing), so I have to repost them.
If we look at the chart, we broke out of a bull flag and are now testing a very strong support level.
You can see we've bounced off of that level multiple times. I think we bounce off of this level again and continue higher from here.
I have no clue what the cause for this move will be, but it looks like we're set for a large move up to the $98-106 resistances with possibility for an extended move up to the top resistances.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming weeks. Key dates and levels on the chart.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 23, 2025๐ฎ ๐ฎ
๐ Market-Moving News ๐
๐บ๐ธ U.S.โChina Trade Tensions Ease: President Trump announced plans to "substantially" reduce tariffs on Chinese imports, signaling a potential de-escalation in the trade war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent labeled the current tariffs as "unsustainable," and the IMF warned of a "major negative shock" to global growth due to the ongoing trade conflict.
๐ Tesla's Profit Decline: Tesla reported a 71% drop in Q1 profits, attributing the decline to backlash over CEO Elon Musk's involvement in government affairs. Musk announced plans to reduce his role in the "Department of Government Efficiency" (Doge) starting in May. โ
๐ซ Boeing's Earnings Under Scrutiny: Boeing is set to report earnings, with investors closely watching for impacts of trade tensions on Chinese plane deliveries. The company's performance is seen as a bellwether for the aerospace sector amid global economic uncertainties.
๐ Key Data Releases ๐
๐
Wednesday, April 23:
๐ New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 675,000
Previous: 662,000
Measures the annualized number of newly constructed homes sold, indicating housing market strength.โ
๐ S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (9:45 AM ET):
Manufacturing Forecast: 49.5
Services Forecast: 51.0
Provides insight into the economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors.โ
๐ข๏ธ EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report (10:30 AM ET):
Reports on the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by U.S. firms, influencing oil prices and energy sector performance.โ
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.โ
๐ #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
CHIP SECTOR TO CRASH SMH The chart posted is the SMH we are now in the final 5th wave and it is a classic 5th wave Diagonal in the 5th wave wave to form a double top into fib cycle peak .From here we should see a major break down in All chip stocks into Oct 2025 but we should see the first leg down low march 10/20th 2025 this should be a Very Bearish action world wide see spy and qqq as well . This is the warning to All traders EXIT INTO RALLIES THE BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 22 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 22, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 22, 2025 ๐ฎ
๐ Market-Moving News ๐:
๐ Tesla's Q1 Earnings on Watch: Tesla is set to report Q1 earnings after market close. Analysts expect EPS of $0.58 on $23.4B revenue. Investors are focused on delivery guidance, cost-cutting measures, and updates on the robotaxi program and Optimus robot. CEO Elon Musk faces pressure to refocus on Tesla amid concerns over his political engagements. โ
๐ Market Volatility Amid Tariff Concerns: U.S. markets remain volatile due to ongoing trade tensions. The S&P 500 has declined 14% from its February high, with investors closely monitoring corporate earnings for insights into the economic impact of recent tariffs. โ
๐ Key Data Releases ๐
๐
Tuesday, April 22:
๐ Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 4.20 million
Previous: 4.38 million
Provides insight into the housing market's health and consumer demand.โ
๐ IMF Global Financial Stability Report (10:15 AM ET):
The IMF will release its latest assessment of global financial markets, focusing on systemic risks and financial stability. โ
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.โ
๐ #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY Falling Wedge Into Support SPY forming a descending wedge after an extreme sell off, one of the fastest declines in recent history.
This wedge style pattern tends to be the result of sharp move in a particular direction, in this case downward as temporary relief before continuiing in the direction of the larger trend.
Ill be looking for liquidity to enter the market on the thursday / friday session for a potential bounce. If not, then its likely the market will be in for a rough spring.
GLD Will TOP SOON - Good For Crypto and AltsGLD has been on a tear lately, but I believe the rally will come to an end next week. This will be good for BTC and Alts. First looking at the RSI on GLD we can see it is now overbought on a monthly and this somehow coincides with the April 2 deadline on Tariffs. IMO I think this is a trap and GLD will begin to fall after it reaches just above the line I have in the chart.