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Bullish Cypher - SPY spotted a bullish Cypher pattern on SPY’s daily chart, and it looks promising. Entry: Current Market Price Stop Loss: 575.50, just under the D-point, to give the trade some breathing room. Targets: All time high Ideas and Inputs are welcome. Thank you for dropping by. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Krut4rth7
5
$SPY Trade Analysis DarkPoolsThis chart appears to be analyzing the SPY ETF (S&P 500 ETF Trust) on a 30-minute timeframe, with various levels marked for support, resistance, trendlines, and potential targets. Here’s a breakdown of the analysis based on what is visible in the chart: Trend Analysis: Downtrend Observed: The red trendline indicates a clear lower highs (LH) pattern, suggesting a bearish structure. The green trendline highlights a previous descending support line, which was broken, followed by a recovery. Current Context: SPY is below the red trendline, which is acting as resistance. The price is hovering near the EMA cluster (moving averages such as 8 EMA and 21 EMA), indicating indecision or consolidation. Key Levels: Resistance Zones: 595.23 to 599.31: This range aligns with previous pivot points and overlaps with a lower high (LH), making it a significant resistance area. 604.37 (DP): A dark pool level from 12/18 indicates where institutional activity occurred. Breaking this level could signal bullish momentum. Support Zones: 590.96 to 586.50: Price currently sits above this cluster, suggesting short-term support. 578.93 (90 SMA): The 90 SMA acts as a longer-term support level. Potential Trade Ideas: Bullish Scenario: Entry: Above 595.23, ideally with a strong close above the red trendline. Targets: T1: 597.63 T2: 599.31 T3: 604.37 Stop Loss: Below 593.87, the most recent support level. Bearish Scenario: Entry: Below 586.50, confirming a breakdown below immediate support. Targets: T1: 585.00 T2: 580.00 T3: 578.93 Stop Loss: Above 588.00, invalidating the breakdown. Indicators: EMA Strategy: Watch for a cross of the shorter EMA (e.g., 8 EMA) below the longer EMA (e.g., 21 EMA) for bearish confirmation, or vice versa for bullish momentum. Volume Confirmation: Increased volume at breakout levels strengthens the validity of the move. Overall Outlook: The current price action is consolidating between 595.23 (resistance) and 586.50 (support). This range-bound behavior may continue until a clear breakout or breakdown occurs. A move above the red trend-line could suggest a bullish reversal, while a break below the lower support zone would confirm bearish continuation. Why the 6:15 Candle is Key: Liquidity Shift: Around 6:15 a.m. EST, pre-market trading often experiences a shift in liquidity as larger institutional traders and automated systems begin positioning themselves ahead of the regular market open. This creates a noticeable increase in volume or volatility. Reaction to Overnight News: By this time, many traders have processed overnight news, including international market developments, economic data, or corporate announcements. The 6:15 candle often represents the market’s collective sentiment to these inputs. Early Dark Pool & Futures Activity: Institutional players and hedge funds might act on dark pool or futures activity signals around this time. For instance, the SPY chart you provided shows interest in identifying areas that coincide with pre-market setups for further price movement. Key Levels for the Day: The high and low of the 6:15 candle in pre-market trading are frequently used by day traders as pivot points. These levels often act as intraday support or resistance, with price reacting around these zones during the regular trading session. Interpreting the 6:15 Candle in Your Chart: Looking at your chart: The 6:15 candle seems to be sitting just below key resistance at 591.14. This candle’s high and low can serve as short-term levels: High Break: A break above the 6:15 high signals bullish momentum. Low Break: A move below the 6:15 low indicates bearish pressure. For SPY, this candle is important because it often sets the tone for the first trading hour of the day. How to Use the 6:15 Candle: Range Breakout Strategy: Mark the high and low of the 6:15 candle. Use these as breakout or breakdown levels for the regular session. Pre-Market High/Low Alignment: If the 6:15 candle aligns with pre-market highs or lows, it reinforces the importance of those levels. Volume Confirmation: Check if the 6:15 candle has significant volume compared to previous candles. A spike in volume confirms institutional interest. EMA Relationship: Notice if the 6:15 candle is above or below key moving averages like the 8 EMA or 15 EMA. This gives insight into short-term sentiment. In Summary: The 6:15 pre-market candle acts as a pivotal reference point: High and low levels often dictate intraday trading strategies. It reflects liquidity shifts, news reactions, and institutional activity. Use it alongside volume, EMAs, and resistance/support zones for more accurate predictions.
AMEX:SPY
by thedarkpooltrader
2024 Santa Rally and More - Up/Down/SidewaysIt's that time of year again. The final trading weeks of 2024 and the technical "Santa Rally" (trading through Christmas and New Year's) is upon us. Unfortunately the FED put a bit of a cap on the extremely optimistic and borderline euphoria that was bubbling over going into the FOMC Rate Decision. 100 bps of cuts, yet the US10Y (10 year yield) has virtually moved in the exact opposite direction. Inflation is now a concern and this is a big reason for the FED's "hawkish cut" in December. The market will have to figure out how 1-2 cuts in 2025 looks compared to 4-6 cuts that was anticipated. I don't think the 1 day FED move is enough of a correction to justify loading up on longs, so I'm looking for 200 EMA tests and better prices all around. If I don't get them, I suppose I'll just wait longer :) Happy Holidays to everyone Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
SPY Technical Analysis for Tomorrow - Dec. 231. Key Levels * Resistance Levels: * $594.00: Immediate resistance level based on recent price action. * $600.00: Psychological resistance and critical test zone. * $608.50: Longer-term resistance from prior highs. * Support Levels: * $588.00: Current consolidation support zone. * $582.30: Intermediate support level based on prior rejections. * $577.74: Major structural low and critical support from the recent bounce. Observations and Price Action 1. Trend: * SPY bounced strongly from $577.74, creating a higher low, indicating short-term bullish momentum. * Price is consolidating under $594.00, which could act as a key pivot point for the next move. 2. Stochastic RSI: * The Stochastic RSI is entering overbought territory, suggesting potential slowing momentum or a pullback before another leg up. 3. Volume: * The recent move off $577.74 was accompanied by rising volume, signaling buying interest at key support. My Thoughts on SPY’s Direction * Bullish Bias: SPY is likely to retest $594.00 and potentially break higher toward $600.00 if buying momentum continues. * Bearish Risks: If $594.00 holds as resistance, a pullback to $588.00 or even $582.30 could occur. I lean slightly bullish, but a breakout above $594.00 is essential for further upside. Watch for rejection signals if SPY struggles to clear this level. Trade Scenarios Bullish Scenario: * Entry: On a breakout above $594.00 with strong volume. * Targets: * Short-Term: $600.00. * Extended: $608.50. * Stop-Loss: Below $592.00 to minimize risk. Bearish Scenario: * Entry: On rejection at $594.00 or breakdown below $588.00. * Targets: * Short-Term: $582.30. * Extended: $577.74. * Stop-Loss: Above $595.00 for rejection trades or $589.50 for breakdown trades. Key Focus Areas * $594.00 Resistance: Watch for a breakout or rejection. * Volume Confirmation: Ensure volume aligns with the direction of the move. * Momentum Shift: Monitor the Stochastic RSI for signs of a reversal or continuation. Conclusion SPY is consolidating near a critical resistance level at $594.00. A breakout would open the door to $600.00, while rejection could lead to a pullback toward $588.00 or lower. The direction tomorrow will largely depend on how SPY reacts to the $594.00 level. ----------- Option Trading Scalping and Long/Short Strategy for SPY ------------ 1. Scalping Strategy for Options Key Observations from GEX Levels and Chart * Resistance Levels: * $593.00: Strong resistance, aligns with the 3rd Call Wall (53.16% GEX). * $598.00: Another key resistance from the 2nd Call Wall. * $600.00: Psychological resistance and CALL Resistance level (93.35%). * Support Levels: * $587.00: High Volume Level (HVL) and critical support zone. * $583.74: Highest negative gamma exposure (Put Support). * $577.74: Recent swing low and major structural support. * Options Oscillator Insight: * IV Rank is moderate (27.6%), indicating stable implied volatility. * Puts outweigh Calls (48.3%), showing slight bearish sentiment. Scalping Call Options (Bullish Setup): * Entry: If SPY breaks above $593.00 with volume confirmation. * Target: $598.00 (short-term target) and $600.00 (extended target). * Stop-Loss: Below $592.00 to manage risk. Why It Works:
The breakout above $593.00 aligns with gamma-driven resistance at $598.00 and $600.00, signaling momentum to the upside. Scalping Put Options (Bearish Setup): * Entry: On rejection at $593.00 or breakdown below $587.00. * Target: $583.74 (short-term target) and $577.74 (extended target). * Stop-Loss: Above $593.50 for rejections or $588.00 for breakdown trades. Why It Works:
Failure to hold $587.00 would push SPY toward negative gamma zones, with increased bearish pressure targeting the next support levels. 2. Long/Short Strategy Long Strategy (Bullish Case): * Entry: Above $593.00 with sustained price action and volume. * Targets: * Short-Term: $598.00. * Extended: $600.00. * Stop-Loss: Below $591.00 to minimize downside risk. Why It Works:
Breaking $593.00 indicates bullish momentum with gamma resistance weakening as the price moves higher. Short Strategy (Bearish Case): * Entry: On rejection at $593.00 or a confirmed breakdown below $587.00. * Targets: * Short-Term: $583.74. * Extended: $577.74. * Stop-Loss: Above $594.00 for rejection trades, or $588.50 for breakdown trades. Why It Works:
A failed breakout or breakdown aligns with bearish sentiment from the options flow, targeting downside gamma zones. 3. Additional Notes * Volume Confirmation: * Monitor volume spikes near $593.00 for breakouts or rejections. * Timeframe: * Use the 1-minute or 5-minute chart for scalping. * Strike Selection: * Focus on at-the-money (ATM) options with 7–14 DTE for scalping. Conclusion * Bullish Scenario: Breakout above $593.00 targets $598.00 and $600.00. * Bearish Scenario: Rejection at $593.00 or breakdown below $587.00 targets $583.74 and $577.74. Keep a close eye on price action, volume, and gamma levels to guide your entries and exits effectively. 🚀 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please trade responsibly and manage your risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-23: BreakAway PatternToday's pattern is a Break Away pattern. I'm not expecting much to happen just before Christmas, but this is when surprises may happen. If you have not already protected your capital - now is the time to do it (almost too late at this point). You should be prepared for anything that happens and move into a position of safety related to the holidays. Remember, the markets will always be here. Get through the holidays and get busy trying to enjoy your life. I suspect the markets will stay very flat over the next 3 to 5+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
IBIT | Be PatientThe market is declining rapidly, and Bitcoin remains highly volatile, making it dangerous to take risks in the current environment. I have marked the HTF (High Time Frame) demand zones as critical areas to monitor. Trades should be based on the reactions observed in these demand zones on lower timeframes. This approach helps minimize risk while identifying potential entry points with stronger confirmation. I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by XU99
Traders BEWARE! Extreme Volatility In 2025-26. LOOK OUT!I just completed a deep dive into my Adaptive Dynamic Learning modeling system, and I'm here to tell you that 2025 and most of 2026 will be highly volatile. If you do not attempt to stay ahead of these market trends, you could suffer a loss of 35% to 45% (or more) over the next 18 months or more. If you want to learn how to navigate these trends, I suggest you find someone you trust to help you identify the best opportunities for your investments and trading. This is no joke. This is the type of event that destroys trader's accounts and disrupts global economies. If you are not prepared for this, get busy trying to find someone to help you. Merry Christmas. Buckle up. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
Again TLT, again 108 targetI’m still supporting 20+ bonds, and this time I’ve chosen the technical approach. I’m not entirely sure if I’ve made the correct calculations using the XABCD pattern, but the picture seems accurate. When the market has concerns about tax reductions, strict measures against migrants, sanctions, etc., and how all of this will affect prices and, specifically, inflation, don’t forget to consider the opposite side of reality. Before all these factors fully materialize, it will take years. During those years, the Trump administration is preparing to make aggressive cuts in public spending, introduce new optimization plans, and more. This can have a direct negative impact on both inflation and the labor market.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by gorgevorgian
SCHD Long-Term Outlook - 40%+ in the Next 3 YearsTicker: SCHD (Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF) Timeframe: 1M (Monthly) Analysis: SCHD has consistently shown strong performance since its inception, benefiting from a diversified portfolio of dividend-paying stocks. The chart highlights a classic Elliott Wave structure: Wave (1): Initial growth phase after inception. Wave (2): Consolidation during the 2015-2016 market slowdown. Wave (3): Long-term bullish rally, supported by broader market trends and stable dividends. Wave (4): Recent pullback due to macroeconomic headwinds (rising rates, inflation concerns). Wave (5): Forecasted bullish continuation toward $36.63 (Target 2), with an interim target at $32.64 (Target 1). The ETF's resilience through economic cycles and its consistent dividend growth make it an excellent candidate for long-term portfolios. Key Levels - Entry Zone: Current price around $27.37. - Target 1: $32.64 (+19% from current levels). - Target 2: $36.63 (+33% from current levels). I- Invalidation: A breakdown below $24.00 would negate the bullish wave structure. Fundamentals - Dividend Yield: ~3.5% (Varies slightly due to reinvestments). - Macro Outlook: Dividend-focused ETFs like SCHD are attractive in high-rate environments due to their steady cash flow. This complements a balanced portfolio seeking growth and income. - Sector Weighting: Heavy allocation toward financials, healthcare, and consumer staples—stable industries in uncertain markets. Conclusion SCHD presents a compelling long-term growth opportunity with solid dividend reinvestment potential. Investors looking for a buy-and-hold strategy should consider adding this ETF to their portfolios, especially for retirement-focused accounts like Roth IRAs. 📈 Let me know your thoughts! Are you holding SCHD in your portfolio?
AMEX:SCHDLong
by MrStockWhale
12/22/24 Weekly Watchlist + NotesAMEX:SPY - Huge sell off across the board from FOMC news on Wednesday. SPY sold off down through previous Broadening Formation range reclaiming previous downside pivot just below 684. So with that in mind, we expand out of the BF below that pivotal low, or come back through range above it. With SPY currently setup to potentially go 3-2 daily, we look to see whether fridays high or low gets taken out. Being above the pivot at 684, we are looking to come back through that BF range and make new ATHs as of now. Of course this can all change depending on whether our W is green or red, but for now we are closer to making a daily HH than a LL. With Christmas being this week, the markets close 2 hours early on Tuesday, and re open on Thursday. Being a short week like this, we need to be extra cautious as there will be lower than normal volume, and simply less time for the weekly candle to form, so expectations on a large move this week as most seem to be predicting, may not happen for the prior reasons. Personally will not be trading Tuesday and possibly not at all this week if I don't see absolute A+ setups. Watchlist: Bullish: NASDAQ:NVDA - Pot. 1-3-2U Daily to trigger failed 2D hammer week. Swept BF lows this past week. Looking to come back through range. This is a big name for the markets, so I expect that if the markets are recovering, this will lead the way or follow with it NASDAQ:MU - 2-2U reversal potential daily to target gap fill from ER. We took out weekly BF mag on friday, hitting exhaustion levels after finally escaping the motherbar it was stuck in for the last 11 weeks. One side gets toasted, magnitude is hit for W and M. All the ingredients for a big recovery. Only issue is being stuck in last weeks range NASDAQ:PLTR - potential 3-2D for a simultaneous weekly 2-1-2U trigger. Nuclear green on all TFs. Slight room to go to target ATH again, but mainly looking for the weekly inside up measured move, meaning if we go 2-1-2U, we can expect the same move up as we had in the week prior to last weeks inside bar week. Cruise Lines: NYSE:CCL + NYSE:NCLH Weekly hammers. NYSE:RCL Not a clean weekly AS, but similar daily to other names in the industry. Bearish: NASDAQ:TSLA - 3-1 4Hr to trigger MoMo shooter Daily to trigger Shooter Weekly 2-2. Daily PMG to target from ATH Exhaustion. (Big green day for most names Friday, why was TSLA so bearish with such relative strength lately?) NASDAQ:AVGO - Shooter 2U Day to trigger 2-2 shooter week. Huge gap up from earnings. Looking to attack the gap. NYSE:KO - MoMo Shooter 2D day to trigger 2-1-2D week. Having issues making range lately, but daily BF is targeting lower still, and weekly 2-2d has yet to be negated. Inside week will confirm more downside to target our BF magnitudes on the D and W, or it will be negated by a 2U week. Simple plan here. Short under prev week low, exit if back above. NYSE:UBER - MoMo shooter 2d Weekly to reconfirm M 2D and Q 2U going 3. Check Monthly for the BF. Wanna see continuation lower to Q mag at 54.84. No daily AS but 3-1 4HR. May be a slower mover on the list. Basing all my decisions on the weekly as the momo shooter should simply just trigger and work
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alanger17
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) About To Go Down - TIMBER!📉 Overview: The S&P 500 (SPY) is signaling a bearish reversal with technical and momentum indicators aligning for a potential decline. A completed 5th wave top, coupled with a breakdown from the bearish wedge, hints at deeper corrections in the coming sessions. 📊 Technical Analysis: Elliott Wave Count: SPY has likely completed its 5th wave top, marking the end of the bullish cycle. Bearish Wedge Breakout: Price has decisively broken below the rising wedge's trendline, a historically reliable bearish signal. Momentum Indicators: - RSI Divergence: Clear bearish divergence as price created higher highs while RSI formed lower highs. - MACD: Loss of upward momentum, with the MACD histogram turning negative. Fibonacci Targets: - Retracement Zone (B): $598–$606 (61.8%–88% retracement of recent decline). - Target 1 (C): $570.35 (1.0 Fibonacci extension). - Target 2 (C): $559.67–$553.07 (1.382–1.618 Fibonacci extension). 🌐 Macro Sentiment: Interest Rate Concerns: Continued hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could weigh on equities, particularly as valuations remain elevated. Economic Slowdown: Weakening macroeconomic data and potential earnings downgrades in early 2025 could amplify selling pressure. Seasonality and Risk-Off Trends: End-of-year profit-taking and increased geopolitical risks may favor defensive positions. ⚡ Trade Plan: - Short Zone: $598–$606 (retracement of recent sell-off). - Stop-Loss: $606.82 – Above the 88% Fibonacci retracement and resistance. Targets: - Target 1: $570.35 (solid risk-reward). - Target 2: $553.07 (extended move aligning with wedge breakdown projection). 🔍 Considerations: Monitor economic data, including inflation, GDP growth, and job numbers, for additional confirmation. Watch for further MACD weakness and RSI failing to reclaim bullish momentum levels. Do you think SPY will see a sharper correction, or are bulls likely to regain control? Share your insights! 🚨📊
AMEX:SPYShort
by MrStockWhale
Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting SeasonaliHenry Hub Natural Gas (US LNG) prices have surged 46.2% since November 2024, driven by colder weather forecasts, rising European gas prices, increased feed gas to U.S. LNG facilities, and expectations of stronger domestic and European demand. US LNG prices typically climb in winter as U.S. heating needs spike, with the December-March period marking a net drawdown in storage. However, the recent rally has been volatile. Shifting weather forecasts triggered fluctuations, including a sharp 7.6% one-day drop on 27/Nov. Source: CME CVOL Turbulent fundamentals, choppy weather, and uncertain geopolitics have forced implied volatilities on US LNG to spike to levels of 99.47 on 20/Dec, unseen over the last 12 months. Supply concerns in Europe have further supported the uptrend. In reducing reliance on Russia, EU’s demand for US LNG has intensified, which accounted for 48% of the imports in H1 2024. US LNG exports increased to 14 bcfd in December, up from 13.6 bcfd in November, reflecting strong activity. For 2024, US LNG shipments are projected to reach 86.9 million metric tons, about 720,000 tons (0.8%) higher than in 2023, reports Reuters . Trump’s re-election has fired up optimism of accelerated LNG project approvals, increased drilling, & relaxed pipeline regulations, potentially boosting US LNG exports. DATA CENTRES TO DRIVE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION GROWTH The growing adoption of AI-driven technologies and the expansion of data centres are significantly increasing electricity demand, placing utilities at the forefront of powering the tech industry's rapid evolution. Source: IBISWorld Deloitte projects U.S. data centre electricity demand to rise sharply reaching 515–720 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030 (up from 180–290 TWh in 2024; CAGR of 17%). Tech giants are turning to renewables and nuclear energy to meet rising energy needs. However, challenges with wind and solar intermittency, alongside the delayed rollout of modular nuclear reactors, make natural gas indispensable. Source: EIA STEO US LNG remains dominant, generating 43% of U.S. electricity. It is solidifying its role as the backbone of tech energy needs. MIDSTREAM GAS COMPANIES PRIMED TO BENEFIT FROM TRUMP’S SECOND TERM Trump’s support for US oil & gas is expected to push production up. LNG exports surged under his administration, rising from 186.8 Bcf in 2016 to 2,390 Bcf in 2020. Source: EIA While increased supply could exert downward pressure on US LNG prices, particularly as winter demand wanes, lower gas prices benefit utilities by improving cost efficiency. Additionally, rising electricity demand supports pipeline, LNG infrastructure, & midstream gas companies, which are less exposed to price fluctuations than drillers. Performance of midstream energy stocks is a function of production volumes & pipeline capacity rather than energy prices. Record U.S. oil production has kept pipeline utilization rates high, supporting midstream revenues. However, infrastructure deficits in key regions have created transportation bottlenecks, leading to backlogs. The completion of new pipelines, storage units, processing facilities, and export terminals will ease these supply constraints. A Trump presidency could expedite the approval of LNG transport infrastructure. LNG exports remain a key growth driver as new terminals and processing plants come online. Even if US LNG prices fall to USD 2/MMBtu, producers will remain profitable due to higher global LNG pricing. The US is the largest LNG exporter and is set for further growth. The EIA projects LNG exports to rise by 15% to nearly 14 Bcfd in 2025, driven by increased capacity. MLP ETFs CAPTURE US ENERGY OUTPUT GROWTH WITH REDUCED EXPOSURE TO PRICES To capitalize on the expected growth in natural gas production, exports, and supply infrastructure, there are many alternatives. Investing into listed Master Limited Partnership (MLP) is one among them. An MLP is a publicly traded entity that combines the tax benefits of a partnership with the liquidity of listed stocks. MLPs manage midstream infrastructure like pipelines, storage, & processing facilities for transporting and processing oil & gas. The main drawback of MLPs is their complex tax form, potentially leading to higher taxes upon investment exit. To address this, an MLP ETF, which invests in a diversified group of MLPs focused on energy infrastructure, offers convenience of trading, diversification, high dividend yields, and simplified tax reporting. The low correlation to underlying energy prices has made MLP ETFs increasingly attractive to investors over the past year. These ETFs are the only one in energy segment to attract inflows in 2024, while broader energy and other subsectors faced outflows, according to ETFTrends.com . The largest MLP ETF in the U.S., the Alerian MLP ETF ( AMEX:AMLP ) recorded USD 1.30 billion in net inflows over the past year, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) saw outflows of USD 3.24 billion and 745.2 million, respectively. Since 2015, on average, AMEX:AMLP has gained 2.7% in January, while $Henry Hub has increased by 6.8%. Additionally, the ETF has exhibited a lower standard deviation, indicating less volatility. AMEX:AMLP tracks the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index ( LSE:AMZI ), which comprises North American-based energy infrastructure MLPs generating most of their cash flow from fee-based midstream activities. With an AUM of USD 9.6 billion, AMEX:AMLP is the second-largest energy ETF. The ETF has a yield of 7.87% and an expense ratio of 0.85%. The ETF’s largest holdings are major MLPs, such as ENERGY Transfer, NYSE:MPLX , and ENERGY Products Partners, among others. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The AMEX:AMLP gained significant investor attention post-Trump’s re-election, with net inflows of USD 518.2 million from 06/Nov to 20/Dec, including USD 152 million on 06/Nov—the highest in the past year. Its appeal lies in a healthy yield, low sensitivity to interest rates, and a fee-based model that stabilizes cash flows, making it less volatile than other energy subsectors. Looking ahead, MLP yields are expected to remain attractive as interest rates decline. However, since the start of December, AMEX:AMLP fell sharply while the $Henry Hub gained 17%. This correction in the AMEX:AMLP prices offers a compelling entry-level, given the favourable macroeconomic conditions and positive seasonality going into January. Bullish drivers aside, risks to the downside exist from policy shifts and weather linked price volatility. Portfolio managers who wish to invest into AMEX:AMLP ETF could consider hedging the downside risk using CME Micro Natural Gas Futures. Each lot of Micro Natural Gas Futures represents 1,000 MMBtu. CME Micro Natural Gas Futures contract expiring in February 2025 (MNGG2025) settled at 3.412/MMBtu last Friday. On that basis, each lot of MNGG2025 represents a notional value of USD 3,412. For the spread trade to be effective, a portfolio manager will require 72 shares of AMLP ETF to hedge against one lot of CME Micro Natural Gas Futures. This paper posits a hypothetical trade setup consisting of long 72 shares of AMEX:AMLP and short 1x CME Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas February Futures Contract (expiring on 01/Feb). An entry at 13.9 coupled with a target at 16.1 and stop-loss at 12.6 delivers a 1.27x-1.62x in reward-to-risk ratio. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
AMEX:AMLPLong
by mintdotfinance
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12/24/2024 : Rally111Please pay attention to this video. Today, I share some vital data related to how I plan on helping all of you become better traders in 2025 and what you need to do to try to improve your own trading results. Trading is not gambling. It is not about throwing money at trends and hoping to catch a few winners. Trading is about trying to time market trends when the best opportunities are ready for profits - then getting out of those opportunities as profits start to mature. Trading is about honing your skills to be able to target 35% to 55% or more every 15 to 25+ days. If you can do that efficiently every 15 to 25+ days, then you are SET. You can turn $1000 into more than $300k in less than a year trading like that. Then, you can turn that $300k into more than $10 million in another year. Can you imagine that happening to you and your family? It is all about having the right tools, gaining proper knowledge and experience, and putting that to practice/use. And that is what I've been trying to teach you for the past 6+ months - the knowledge and skills to be able to see/time the biggest market moves. I know many of you have followed me for many months. I appreciate all of you. Now, as we close out 2024, let's make a commitment to really focus on gaining the success we desire for ourselves and our families so we can enjoy 2025 as a better year. I challenge all of you to a straightforward goal: Learn, Practice, Gain experience, and Execute better trades so you can grow your accounts and move into the "Trader Life" you have always desired. Trade 2-4 times a day (when opportunity strikes) and try to grow your account by 35 to 55% every 15 to 25 days. That's all it takes. Are you ready? Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny