QQQ To Be DeterminedUsing the Potterbox strategy, we can see that we successfully bounced off the 4HR cost basis, or median at about $505.60 and closed above the top of the box at about $507.77.
I believe that to continue to the upside, we'll have to first secure the floor above at $511.50 with a 4 hour candle close. At that point, we'll have a chance to punchback with a candle close above cost basis at about $513.84. With that, we can look to head to the upside and use $522 as a price target.
On the other hand, if we drop below the top of the box that we closed above, we could retest cost basis at about $505.60 and if we get a candle close at that end, then we can look to continue downwards towards a $497 price target.
ETF market
Bond Market Crisis - Opportunity?Pay close attention to the bond market, particular to the 20 Year Treasury yield which is creeping back up. This is really bad news for the markets, yields could spike higher which could send the market tumbling. This cascade effect could provide an optimal entry into TLT - which is an inverse play on interest rates.
There is currently no reason for the Fed reserve to reduce interest rates. Inflation is creeping back up and the cost implications of tariffs are yet to truly felt in the inflation readings. Meanwhile, the US has lost its perfect credit rating and the debt burden continues to grow. The Fed will not reduce rates if inflation shows no sign of abating. Note that in the UK inflation is back up and I expect this to also be the case in the US.
My plan is to watch this play out and look for opportunity in TLT. I don’t want to get caught up bag holding stocks if there is a major bond crisis. As far as the chart is concerned, I expect a double bottom pattern and bullish confirmation with a break of the neckline.
None of this is financial advice, do what’s best for you.
SPY at a CrossroadsUsing the Potterbox strategy on the 4 hour time frame I can see that we are at a huge level of support that is holding at $578, which I think will be crucial in deciding whether we break down or make an attempt to try and head to the upside.
$571 and then $568.50 are downside targets, if we end up breaking down below the $578 support.
Above us, there is a box where price consolidated that we retested the bottom of back on Friday. If we are able to hold support at $578, we are likely to retest and try and secure the floor at $581. With a $582.75 break, which is cost basis, or the median of the box, we are likely to head to the bottom of the next box above us at $588.
05-25-25 Risk Containment & Trading Strategy ExamplesSkilled Traders have learned to manage risk levels using techniques that allow them to preserve capital and move their assets towards future successful traders.
Some beginner traders get stuck trying to swing for the fences.
In this video, I try to share a common Fibonacci price/strategy technique where traders can attempt to limit risks while learning to identify efficient successful trade triggers.
Remember, taking a trade is the easy part. Protecting and growing your capital is much more difficult.
Please use the techniques in this video to learn how to protect and manage your capital.
Get some.
Happy Memorial Day.
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QQQ Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear friends,
QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 509.27 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 514.96
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Market Update - 5/25/2025• Clear leading sectors are batteries, nuclear and alternative energy, material and metal names especially gold
• Breadth is declining, XLU, XLP outperforming, stocks lower, IWM rejected from the 100dma.
• These are all clear signals to me that we are in a bad environment. Last week I was 109% invested, but now down to only 10%, and only risking 0.3% on my trades. I'm fully in defensive mode. I'm only focusing on the best of the best setups in the above mentioned leading industries. I'm expecting weakness ahead
Technical Signals Point to Potential Downside: Key Gaps and IndiThe MACD on the daily chart is nearing a bearish crossover, signaling a potential sell-off. There's a gap from April 22nd aligning with the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone. Additionally, the gap from May 9th remains to be filled, which coincides with the 100 and 200 EMA levels.
SPY LONG FROM SUPPORT
SPY SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 579.16
Target Level: 596.01
Stop Loss: 567.94
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 3h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Chart Pattern Analysis Of MSTZ
From K1 to K3,
It is a bullish three soldiers advancing pattern,
But unfortunately, it still failed to close upon a nearest resistance.
K3 start with a bull gap and break up a downtrend line of a large scale consolidation range.
If the following candles break up the resistance or consolidate around it,
It will be a good place to buy it there.
On the other hand,
If the following candles successfully retest the downtrend line,
It is also a good place to buy it then.
Long-4.75/Stop-4.35/Target-10
SPY Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
This week with AMEX:SPY bi-weekly trends have risen to just below our monthly values and are currently expansive over the markets IV prediction. Right now as I see it, HV10 is going resonate alongside our monthly values showing continued strength over IV. We could full regression to quarterly means as we move our of corrective territory then see consolidation to cool the markets down.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
Russel 2000 Weekly PotentailVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
This week with AMEX:IWM you can see that last week trending bi-weekly markets were more volatile than our monthly trending values. This could indicate regression to quarterly means, but for now shows a 15.02% premium advantage over current IV per move.
Bi-weekly, is as of now, only 10.81% off it's quarterly trend. However, it's important to observe that volatility can still consolidate under monthly in a poetic dance to coil up the monthly more on it's path in regression.
This is why in my charts you will notice a 'coiling' value under both HV10 and HV21 values.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
QQQ Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
This week with NASDAQ:QQQ we see that the shorter term trending volatility is resonating like SP:SPX and AMEX:SPY just under our monthly values. Range seems to be expanding allowing for cheaper premium capture per move happening. With any luck, we reflect and increase in volatility with up to quarterly means.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
iBIT Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
Now we move on to the world of BTC with a look at NASDAQ:IBIT
Here, as we have been observing an ongoing regression, you see that HV10 has expanded past HV21 and now IV is predicting more range expansion leading toward the volatility at quarterly means. Stay tuned, and I hope this helps visualize what I do.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
BITx Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
Now we move on to the world of BTC with a look at CBOE:BITX
Here, as we have been observing an ongoing regression, you see that HV10 has expanded past HV21 and now IV is predicting more range expansion leading toward the volatility at quarterly means. Stay tuned, and I hope this helps visualize what I do.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
TLT Is Yelling at UsYou typically see a migration to TLT when people are looking for a safe haven from troubled markets
I posted about TLT previously and thought we were about to see a rush to the trade because of potential market weakness
Well as we know this Bull market continued to show legs and subsequently TLT has been grounded on the launching pad
The market is yet again showing classic signs of topping
Are we saying that the market is about to crash? NO..not yet
What we are saying is that liquidity is leaving the equities markets in droves and TLT will most likely be a place where that liquidity finds a home
So pay close attention to TLT over the next 6 months because its going to tell you everything you need to know about this bull market
This is how ChatGPT would write the marketNVDA earnings will not disappoint
PCE will be doable
big money has rebalanced and will let it drift higher (along with yields)
This week was just a nice healthy dip and markets will just shrug off negative news until the tipping point, in which case another sharp repricing will happen. Followed by a relief rally in August but then bitter disappointment in September.
I pause but then I'm sadly strangled to agree... 3Y/5Y hasn't inverted, sentiment is a bit too skittish, and according to chatgpt, this was not a break of the long term pattern and short of super ugly surprises in the original 3 points above, it will not end in capitulation. And again, I might just agree. Even in the midst of the Liberation Day shocks, we barely got into a bear market, there was no massive retaliation and dumping of foreign held treasuries.
Basically we built a pretty good nation. Even when the government takes a chainsaw to itself and companies have to pull out their own arms to import supplies and are pausing any capital expenditures until the picture clears up, financial markets are like, meh, it'll be fine. I thought we'd have a earnings ratio collapse by now, but we're even still higher than our Shiller average....
QQQ What Next? SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on QQQ and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 521.53 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 492.15
Safe Stop Loss - 535.10
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK