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The "Bearish" Short-term Outlook on the marketI apologize - this video was made mid-market yesterday and took a while to download for some reason. So we did subsequently close below the gap and continue downward wherein we closed the multi-day cup at the former low. I am shorting this overnight and allowing for the subsequent liquidity build to happen (if necessary) before shorting again. There is plenty of more room to the downside if our strong selling was proven (which it seems it was with the incoming gap down). Happy Trading :)
AMEX:SPYShort
by ReigningTrades
Possible gold (GLD) tradeSo apparently the reason why gold fell this morning is because gold has 8% tariff premium built in, that is what the March pump was all about. Turns out gold is exempt from tariffs, and so is silver, so silver dumped the entire March pump. So the fact that gold is exempt from tariffs basically means that it basically got pumped 8% today because it didn't drop like silver did. Yeah, tariffs were a shock but not 8% gold pump shock. Also, teh demand for physical gold will go down because apparently there was a lot of pre-buying in anticipation of the tariffs, plus people will have less disposable income. The play here is that if GLD posts a red bar or falls below today's open, then I'm buying puts. Futures are green so I'm not sure if that will be tomorrow or Monday.... though there may be a drop Monday regardless as people actually read news over teh weekend. I should have yesterday before I posted, lol. My bad.
AMEX:GLD
by hungry_hippo
25
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 9, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 Implementation of New U.S. Tariffs: As of April 9, the U.S. has imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese goods, escalating trade tensions and raising concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. 🛢️📉 Oil Prices Decline Sharply: In response to escalating trade tensions, oil prices have fallen nearly 4%, reaching their lowest levels since early 2021. Brent crude dropped to $60.69 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined to $57.22. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, April 9: 📦 Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.3%​ Previous: 0.8%​ Indicates the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers, reflecting supply chain dynamics.​ 🗣️ Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speaks (11:00 AM ET): Remarks may shed light on economic conditions and policy perspectives.​ 📝 FOMC Meeting Minutes Release (2:00 PM ET): Provides detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy deliberations from the March meeting.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY Technical Breakdown & Macro Context1. Big-Picture Narrative There’s increasing talk of a “104% China Tariff,” bringing back memories of Donald J. Trump’s 1988 loss in a piano auction to a Japanese buyer—an event some speculate influenced his later calls for high import taxes. Fast-forward to today, and concerns about renewed tariff escalation add extra pressure on the markets. The user’s view: unless there’s a political shift—where Republicans become more concerned about broader voter sentiment than aligning with Trump—this could drive the S&P 500 down to 3000. While that is quite a distance from current levels, it underscores how aggressive policy moves (tariffs, trade wars) can weigh heavily on equities. 2. Hourly & Daily Chart Overview Short-Term (Hourly) Price has trended steadily downward, with each bounce finding new sellers at lower highs. Key Levels on the chart include: 510.84 (L. Vol ST 1a) – A noteworthy pivot-turned-resistance. 498.01 (L. Vol ST 2a) – Important resistance-turned-support level that recently broke. 485.18 (H. Vol Sell Target 1a) – Currently acting as near-term support. 472.35 (Weeks High Short) – Further support below 485. Longer-Term (Daily) The broader trend remains bearish, with high-volume selling in the last few sessions. RSI on the daily is dipping into the 30s, indicating oversold conditions—but remember that oversold can persist in a strong downtrend. Elevated ATR (14) around 16 suggests volatility remains high; large intraday swings can occur. 3. Possible Trade Setups A) Bearish Continuation (Primary) Entry Trigger: A failure to reclaim 498 (L. Vol ST 2a) or a decisive break below 485.18 on strong volume. Profit Targets: First Target: 472.35 (Weeks High Short) Second Target: 459.52 (Half 1 Short) for a larger downside move Extreme Target: If policy missteps intensify and no political moderation occurs, the user foresees a slide to S&P 3000—an extreme scenario but a reminder of how macro risks can extend a downtrend. Stop Loss: Just above 500–502 if you’re entering on a breakdown, to protect against whipsaw should SPY manage a strong recovery above key resistance. B) Oversold Bounce (Alternative) Entry Trigger: A strong reclaim of 498–500 and at least one hourly close above it, indicating buyers have stepped in. Profit Targets: First Target: 510.84 (L. Vol ST 1a) Second Target: 523.67 (Best Price Short level) if bullish momentum accelerates Stop Loss: Below 485 to limit risk in case the rally fails and downtrend resumes. 4. Macro & Political Watch Tariffs & Trade Policy: New or increased tariffs can rapidly shift market sentiment. Keep an eye on headlines for abrupt policy changes or legislative updates. Political Dynamics: If Republicans shift their stance or emphasize broader voter concerns over aligning with Trump’s trade approach, it might calm markets. Conversely, unwavering support for tariff policies could amplify market downside. Economic Indicators: In addition to politics, watch earnings releases and consumer data. If the economy shows unexpected weakness amid tariff concerns, selling pressure could intensify. 5. Final Thoughts Volatility is Elevated: Intraday whipsaws are common; stay disciplined with stop-loss placements. Bearish Bias Persists: The trend is clearly down unless bulls can reclaim key resistance levels with conviction. Manage Risk: Always size positions appropriately given the current volatility, and remain prepared for sudden news-driven moves. In summary, tariffs and politics remain a focal point, with historical anecdotes highlighting how personal experiences can shape trade policy. Whether SPY crashes all the way to 300 (S&P 3000) depends on how severe and prolonged these headwinds become. Keep a close eye on technical levels, watch for policy announcements, and maintain a vigilant approach to risk management.
AMEX:SPY
by HispanicHedge
SPY: TA-Market Chaos Calls for Smart Eyes, Not Just Smart ChartsThe market isn't playing fair lately. Classic TA setups are getting invalidated. Support zones crumble in seconds. Even golden cross setups fizzle out. But this isn’t the time to quit—it’s the time to get tactical. When technicals break, the silent signals from the options market become louder. That’s where Gamma Exposure (GEX) step in. This week, we saw aggressive institutional repositioning, unexpected volatility, and coordinated rotations into both risk and safety assets. Let’s talk about SPY, our macro compass. Then we’ll dive into stock-specific GEX sentiment and options setups that still offer alpha. 🔎 SPY – Institutional Tug-of-War Trend: SPY is forming a falling wedge, which could break either way. Price is sitting just above $500, after tagging the Highest Negative GEX / PUT Wall around $505–$502, which held on Friday. GEX & Options Flow: * PUTs at 84.7% dominate the board. * IVR is 121.8, showing high implied volatility demand. * Strong support from PUT walls at $502, while CALL resistance at $547–$551 could suppress any upside. Outlook: * If $502 breaks, momentum could drag us toward $490 or even $475. * Bulls need to reclaim $520, flipping the key Gamma Wall. Strategy Suggestion: For options, consider SPY put spreads if below $505, or long SPY calls above $520 for quick squeezes—preferably with tight expiry (0DTE or 2DTE) to ride the gamma wave.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 4-8 : Absolute PerfectionThank you. Thank you to all of you who follow my videos and believe in my research. The last few days/weeks have been absolutely incredible. My SPY Cycle Patterns, on average, are about 70-80% accurate over a 12-month span of time. There are things, like news and big events (elections, outside forces, big news) that can disrupt any market trend and completely invalidate my SPY Cycle Patterns. But, when the markets are generally left to their own accord, the SPY Cycle Patterns play out almost perfectly. Yes, traders need to learn to adopt a PLAN A vs. PLAN B mentality with my SPY Cycle Patterns. If Brad is right - this will happen. And if Brad is wrong, the opposite will likely happen. But, the comments I've been receiving over the past 20+ days have been incredible. Thank you. Knowing that I'm reaching a larger group of people now (than when I started doing these videos about a year ago) and knowing that some of you are really seeing some BIG GAINS following my research is simply incredible. I started doing these videos to prove my research and tools were incredible solutions for traders. But, at the same time, I started doing this to combat some of the scammers that are out there. In my world, watching people (or hearing from them) after they've been scammed a couple of times is heartbreaking. Most people put a lot of time and effort into trying to become skilled traders. I get it. That's why I'm doing this - to show you the right path and to show you that price is the ultimate indicator. Again, thank you from the bottom of my heart. Keep sending me those success stories and... GET SOME. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
19
Foundation of Technical Trading: What Makes a Chart Tradable?The Foundation of Technical Trading There is an abundance of information on price charts, technical methods, indicators, and various tools. However, the required first step is to understand basic market structure. Without this foundational knowledge, technical applications risk becoming inconsistent and disconnected from broader market behavior. It is also important to question whether technical charts and tools are effective at all. What makes the market responsive to a trendline, a pattern, or an indicator? And why, at other times, do these tools seem entirely irrelevant? Is the market random? If certain events are predictable, under what conditions can such occurrences be expected? Experiment: Random Charts Here is an illustration of four charts; two showing real price data and two randomly generated. While some visual distortion gives away subtle differences, there are more refined methods to construct this experiment that makes telling the difference between real and random almost impossible. All these charts show viable patterns and possible applications. When presented with these, even experienced people tend to construct narratives, whether or not structure is present. This raises a fundamental question; how can one distinguish real occurrences from coincidental formations on a chart? In case all movements are considered random, then this should indicate that applied methods perform no better than coincidence? Bias and Distortion It’s also important to comprehend the influence our perception. As humans we are wired to find patterns, even in random data, which can lead to various cognitive biases that distort our interpretation. For example, confirmation bias may lead us to focus only on evidence that supports our expectations, while apophenia causes us to see patterns where none exist. Similarly, hindsight bias can trick us into believing past patterns were obvious, which can develop overconfidence in future decisions. Awareness of these biases allows us to approach technical tools and charts with greater objectivity, with more focus on probabilistic methods and calculated risks. Experiment: Random Levels Perform the following experiment; open a chart and hide the price data. Then draw a few horizontal lines at random levels. Then reveal the price again. You’ll notice that price can touch or reverse near these lines, as if they were relevant levels. The same thing can happen with various indicators and tools. This experiment shows how easy it is to find confluence by chance. It also raises an important question, is your equipment and approach to the markets more reliable than random? Market Disorder Financial markets consist of various participants including banks, funds, traders and algorithmic systems. These participants operate with different objectives and across multiple timeframes resulting in a wide range of interpretations of market behavior. Trades are executed for various reasons such as speculation, hedging, rebalancing, liquidation or automation; directional intent could be unclear. For instance, the prior may serve to offset exposure, and portfolio rebalancing could require the execution of large orders without directional intent. Technical and chart-based trading likely makes up a minor segment of the overall market; even within this subset, there is considerable variation in perception and interpretation. There could be differences in timeframe, reference points, pattern relevance and responses to similar information. The market is broader, more complex and less definitive than it appears. The point is that markets contain a high degree of structural disorder, which means most assumptions should be questioned and perceived as estimative. The effect of buying and selling pressure on multiple timeframes sets the foundation for oscillation in price movements, rather than linear and monotonic movements. This pattern of rising and falling in a series of waves sets the points for where the current structure transitions between balance and imbalance. An overall equilibrium between buying and selling pressure results in consolidative price movement, whereas dominance leads to trending or progressive movement. Volatility Distribution To answer the main question: What differentiates real market behavior and charts from random data, and ultimately makes it tradable, is the distribution of volatility. This forms the basis for the phenomenon of volatility clustering, where periods of high volatility tend to follow high volatility, and low volatility follows low volatility. It is rare for the market to shift into a volatile state and then immediately revert to inactivity without some degree of persistence. Research supports the presence of this volatility persistence, though with the important caveat that it does not imply directional intent. Volatility Cycles These phases tend to occur in alternation, known as volatility cycles, which set the foundation for tradable price structures. This sequence consists of a contractive phase, marked by compression in price movements, followed by an expansive phase, characterized by increased volatility and directional movement. The alternation reflects shifts in underlying buying and selling pressure. This behavior offers a practical approach to interpret market behavior. A more detailed explanation of the concept could be explored in a future post. Conclusion While the idea of profitability through technical trading is often questioned, it remains a viable approach when based on sound principles. The edges available to the average trader are smaller and less frequent than commonly presumed. The concepts of volatility and the ability to locate areas of imbalance forms the basis for identifying conditions where market behavior becomes less random and more structured. This sets the foundation for developing technical edges. The content in this post is adapted from the book The Art of Technical Trading for educational purposes.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by StockLeave
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update 4-8 : Counter Trend Bottom/RallyThis video was created to help you better understand why it is important to WAIT for the SPY Cycle Patterns to setup efficiently. It is critically important that all of you learn the three basic rules of trading. 1. Never try to force a position/trade. If your research tells you some type of price event/trend is likely - don't jump into the trade too early. Wait for confirmation and wait for price to confirm your analysis is correct. 2. Start with a small position. Never GO BIG on your initial trade. If you are wrong, you can manage the trade with a small win/loss. If price moves in the direction you expect, you can add more once you get confirmation the trend will continue (potentially). 3. BOOK PROFITS early and keep BOOKING PROFITS as the trend continues higher. You can always get back into the trade with CALL/PUT options - but if you don't learn to BOOK PROFITS EARLY (20-30% profits in the trade), then you'll very likely FAIL to build your account efficiently. (Trust me, #3 is VERY IMPORTANT) Beyond these three simple concepts, one of the most important aspects of trading with my SPY cycle patterns is to learn to WAIT for the pattern to setup efficiently. Today is a great example. The BOTTOM/Rally Start pattern was in Counter-trend mode. Thus, I expected it to be INVERTED - turning it into a TOP/Selloff Start pattern. In order for that pattern to play out, we needed to see the markets open higher (and potential trend higher for a bit of time), then roll over into a top pattern. After that tops pattern setup, the markets should continue to move into a moderate selloff trend (downward). Think about it. Were you smart trying to SELL INTO the rally this morning or were you smart to wait for the ROLLOVER and sell into the breakdown trend? IMO, smart traders waited for the top to setup/confirm and started selling as we got into the breakdown trend phase. Again, I'm trying to help you learn to become a better trader. I hope this video helps. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
13
Trade with me! Walkthrough as I short SPY on a 1 min chartThis is a long video and unfortunately we got cut off at the 1 HR mark right before the ensuing dump toward our TP level (currently 5 minutes after the video up 30% on the position). Recommend watching on 2x, 3x, 4x speed if you want but also a lot of insights as to what I'm looking out for through my typing. I would have liked to do this with a mic but I'm in a loud environment and wanted to get this out to you. Hope you enjoy and aren't bored (which sometimes, trading is just boring!) Happy Trading :)
AMEX:SPYShort
by ReigningTrades
2
Understanding the Downside Market and who controls priceA downtrend starts with Dark Pool Buy Side Institutions slow rotation to lower inventory of a stock or ETF. The rotation bends the trend into a rounding pattern that is visible on the stock or ETF chart. The goal of the Dark Pool rotation is not to disturb the uptrend while they are slowly selling shares of stock over several months time. The bending of the price is a signal that the Dark Pools are in rotation. If a chart has Peaks and Valleys trendline pattern that is NOT Dark Pools. Controlled TWAP orders are automated and controlled by the events of that day. At some point professional traders and the Sell Side Institutions will recognize the hidden rotation and start setting up sell short trades. The upside requires more and more buyers to keep the trend moving upward. However, the downside does NOT require more and more sellers. All that is required is a void of buyers and the stock will start a downward correction on the short term or intermediate term trend. A void of buyers also creates the opportunity for High Frequency Trading companies who are Maker/Takers to sell short. The sell short orders fill the queues of the market before it opens and then the computers of the stock exchanges gap the stock down to a first level of some buyers. HFTs, Hedge Funds and Big Money Center Banks Sell short and place their automated buy to cover order way below causing the stock price to plummet. Then smaller funds VWAP orders trigger and the stock collapses. What I am trying to teach is the sell side and the buy side are totally different. They are NOT mirror images of each other.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
24