Get started

ETF market

MSTUMy original position, which I still have, was entered around $4.50, but well before the stock split. I bought some more after the peak, but before the dip after the dip. That's always the one that gets you. So that second position is a tad underwater, but hopefully not for long. If BTC can hold $100,000, that's nice to see. BTC can decide to do a massive inverse H&S off the top of the all-time BTC linear fib channel, which would take the price to $93,000. This would be totally fine. You just don't want to see that level fail.
CBOE:MSTULong
by Shammus01
1
SPY Macro Analysis: Premium-Discount Dynamics, Trade Setup etc..Macro Perspective: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is currently consolidating in a critical premium zone, with a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Economic uncertainty and broader market sentiment suggest a cautious approach, particularly with upcoming economic events (e.g., Fed policy updates, inflation data). The equilibrium level (~599) appears to be pivotal for directional bias. Technical Breakdown Premium Zone (599.80–606.19): Price is testing key resistance levels near Fibonacci 0.886 and 2.618 extensions. A failure here could signal a bearish reversal. A sustained breakout beyond 606.19 would open doors to higher targets (612–617.50). Discount Zone (585–577): A retracement into this zone could attract buyers looking for value entries. Key support: 565.51 (swing low, potential liquidity grab). Volume Dynamics: Noticeable spikes at resistance levels, suggesting potential liquidity sweeps before a decisive move. Trade Setup Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation Entry: Upon breakout and close above 606.19. Stop-Loss: Below 604 (to avoid fakeouts). Targets: 612 (initial), 617.50 (extended). Risk-Reward: Maintain at least 1:3. Scenario 2: Bearish Reversal Entry: Upon rejection from the premium zone (~599–606). Stop-Loss: Above 607. Targets: 585 (initial), 577 (secondary). Risk-Reward: At least 1:4. Scenario 3: Discount Rebound Entry: Bullish price action confirmation within the 585–577 range (e.g., engulfing candle, double bottom). Stop-Loss: Below 575. Targets: 599 (initial), 606.19 (secondary). Risk-Reward: Adjust based on entry levels. Risk Management Position Sizing: Use no more than 2% of your account per trade. Confirmation: Wait for clear price action signals or key volume levels to confirm entries. Trailing Stop: Consider trailing stops to lock in profits during trending moves. Macro Insights Keep an eye on macroeconomic drivers like inflation data, job reports, and Federal Reserve commentary. Correlation with bond yields and volatility (e.g., VIX) could provide additional cues for market sentiment. 💡 Pro Tip: Patience pays—let the price come to you. Always stick to your plan and maintain discipline in both entries and exits.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
$AAPL 1 minute ago I PUBLISHED THIS SAME CHART BUT WITH NO INDICATORS. (NOW INDICATORS INCLUDED. APPLE CONSOLIDATING LOOKING LIKE A POSSIBLE REVERSAL MAY HAPPEN SOON BUT if the market becomes bearish and S&P break local key support we became bearish. APPL has been a late boomer, latest to give us a nice bounce to the upside ... if we break down from here we have either a fast liquidity grab or a slow leg down where I would surely add more. See bothe trend support and indicators. If you enjoy please let me know and I will start sharing more clean looking charts as this.
NASDAQ:AAPBLong
by Tradesandtruths
AAPL - AAPB ETF - NEUTRAL TURNING BULLISH APPLE CONSOLIDATING LOOKING LIKE A POSSIBLE REVERSAL MAY HAPPEN SOON BUT if the market becomes bearish and S&P break local key support we became bearish. APPL has been a late boomer, latest to give us a nice bounce to the upside ... if we break down from here we have either a fast liquidity grab or a slow leg down where I would surely add more. See bothe trend support and indicators. If you enjoy please let me know and I will start sharing more clean looking charts as this.
NASDAQ:AAPB
by Tradesandtruths
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-6 : Inside-Breakaway Counter-TrendToday's pattern suggests the markets may attempt a Counter-trend type of Inside Breakaway pattern. I read this as a downward price trend (counter to the current upward price trend). The markets seem to have bounced overnight - prompting a potentially strong opening price level. If my Inside-Breakaway shows up today, things could get very interesting if a breakdown in price sets up. Many of you know I've been expecting a broader market breakdown to take place - sending the SPY/QQQ down about 7% to 13% or more. It hasn't happened yet and the SPY/QQQ continue to try to push a bit higher - but, until we break to new highs, the breakdown event is still possible. Let's see how things play out today. Platinum is showing that the global markets are entering an extreme speculative phase (very similar to 2000-2008). Transports are stalling, showing the US economy is expected to weaken over the next 3+ months. Imagine that. Speculation is ramping up while the US market may move into a recession in H2:2025. Wow. We certainly live in interesting times. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
3
BITx - Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood afternoon -- Here is my weekly perspective for CBOE:BITX IV (86.99%) entering the week sits in the 3rd percentile for the year. HV10 (60.22%) has been lowering towards it's yearly lows of 47.87% showing a coiling of bi-weekly values at 87.65% from this -- and a divergence from IV of -26.77% . IV is chasing the sinking bi-weekly volatility trends. We generally could see a volatility bounce within this range or continue to grind to new volatility lows. I always expect and prepare for both, Lewis Pastor once said, "in a scientific setting, chance favors the prepared mind". I hold that true in a lot of situational settings not just scientific, but find it to be very true with BITSTAMP:BTCUSD volatility and risk management. Moving deeper into the week; what can we expect? Well, I think that the final shakeout may be here as we consolidate more into the beginning of the week finalizing on Tuesday, June 3rd. I find significance on this date being the extension in time from selling off for 45 days after the initial 'W' distribution off the top -- potentially the start of the volatility swing back towards long-term trending means and maybe the start of another impulse run to track into..stay tuned to find out in observation. If this week we find regression to HV63 (99.73%), it will be a swift and quick move showing lots of strength. The ability to capture premium between the difference of stated IV from lowering HV10 values to the volatility swing back up above IV to quarterly means, is what it is all about! This capture can be upwards 12.74% as a volatility metric read and beyond, because when a volatility regression occurs, it moves past means until having to consolidate back downwards again. Rinse and repeat. For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.
CBOE:BITX
by splitmyIVandmelt
$UVXY target still +$100, different path to get thereWe've seen an incredibly large rally in stocks, which has taken UVXY lower than I expected, but as long as we bounce at support here, the idea is still valid. The support on the chart is retesting the move that we broke out from end of March. There was a lack of balance on the chart as we saw a 130% move over a 5 day period. So we're going back to retest that region. I think once we retest the region we broke out from, we'll base for a few days and then start the last leg higher. I think this is going to be the biggest move yet and this move will get us to break the lows in SPY. I'm looking for $437-441 to mark the low in the market with an extreme low at $400. I think VIX will see new highs and UVXY will go to $100+ with the resistance targets on the chart. Not sure what the catalyst will end up being for this one, but all of the positive news around tariffs seem to be priced in after today. Most of my UVXY options are stacked from 6/6-6/20 as I think we'll see this move play out by then. Let's see what happens.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by benjihyam
11
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 6, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 6, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 U.S. Labor Market in Focus Investors are closely watching the upcoming May employment report, which is expected to show a gain of 125,000 jobs, down from 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.2%. These figures will provide insights into the labor market's response to recent economic pressures, including tariff impacts . 🇮🇳 RBI Expected to Cut Rates Amid Low Inflation The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is anticipated to announce a 25 basis point cut in the repo rate on June 6, marking the third consecutive reduction. This move aims to support economic growth amid persistent low inflation and global uncertainties . 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, June 6: 8:30 AM ET – U.S. Employment Report (May): Analysts expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 125,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month. These figures will be critical in assessing the health of the labor market and potential Federal Reserve policy actions . 3:00 PM ET – U.S. Consumer Credit (April): The Federal Reserve will release data on consumer credit, with forecasts predicting an increase of $10 billion. This report will shed light on consumer borrowing trends and financial health . ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) – Premium Rejection & Gap Fill Probabili🕐 1H Chart | Smart Money Concepts | Volume: 362.69K 📍 Price: $525.82 (as of June 5, 2025) 📌 Market Context: Nasdaq-heavy ETF reacting near historical highs 🧠 Technical Outlook 🔴 Weak High formed at the Premium Zone around $530–533 — an area of prior liquidity hunts and seller reactivation 📉 BOS + CHoCH (Break of Structure + Change of Character) confirm potential short-term bearish rotation 📦 Multiple Inefficiencies / FVGs stacked below $520, with visible Gap Fill Zones targeting $510 → $490 ⚖️ Equilibrium Area: $480–485, where institutional rebalancing may occur 📊 Risk Management Plan Short Entry Zone: $526–530 (upon confirmation of weak high rejection) Initial Target: $510 (gap fill) Secondary Target: $485 (EQ zone) Stop-Loss: Above $533 (invalidates the rejection thesis) 📌 Risk-Reward: Approx. 3.2R depending on entry 🔒 Position Sizing: Use no more than 1.5% of capital per trade due to macro catalysts (see below) 📈 Probabilistic Outcomes 🟢 Bearish Play (65% Probability): High likelihood of price returning to fill imbalance zones & tap EQ block 🟡 Sideways Chop (25%): If macro remains indecisive, range may form between $515–$530 🔵 Invalidation Bull Rally (10%): Break and hold above $533 invalidates this trade setup 🌐 Macro & Catalysts to Watch 📉 Semiconductor Drag: QQQ is heavily exposed to tech; semis are still underperforming YTD (–17.53%) 🛃 Trade Tensions: Rising tariffs and protectionism (China–US) may weigh on large-cap growth names 🧾 ETF Inflows: While QQQ saw +$571M inflows in early June, positioning could be crowded 💬 Upcoming Events: FOMC rate decision (June 12) NVDA + AAPL earnings over the next 10 trading days 🧠 Strategic Insight Short-term liquidity has likely been swept at highs. Institutions could drive price lower to mitigate risk exposure ahead of major macro events. Expect volatility spikes near economic data releases. 🛡️ This is a tactical swing-to-intraday short opportunity with defined parameters. Trade the levels, not the hope. #QQQ #SmartMoneyConcepts #GapFill #PremiumZone #RiskManagement #ETFStrategy #MacroTrading #LiquiditySweep #VolumeProfile #WaverVanirInternational
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
$SPY bearish, to break April lows?Most people are thinking that we'll see a correction that goes back to the $560 area and then from there, we'll go to new highs. They also don't think it's likely that we'll retest the lows from April and think it's nearly impossible that we'll break the lows. However, my base case is that we will break the lows. Yes, in the past, most dips like the one in April were good buying opportunities, but the chart looks different here. You can see that ever since April, all we've done is consolidate up into a rising wedge. We look set to break down from that in the coming days. If we do break down and are unable to reclaim the highs, then I think my base case will become the highest probability outcome. I think it's likely that the move down will take us to the $424- 402 levels. Let's see what happens.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
56
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-5 : Inside BreakawayToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is an Inside Breakaway pattern - which indicates the markets want to try to break away from the sideways range I've been sharing with you. Gold and Silver are making a very big move higher this morning - which may be indicative of some crisis or military conflict move throughout the world. I see this move in Metals as a bit of a warning to the global markets. Metals hedge global risk levels. A rise in metals suggests traders fear some crisis event and are banking on Silver/Gold as an efficient hedge. BTCUSD is still trading within the sideways channel as well. I see BTCUSD less as a hedge and more as a technology/Block-chain asset. No matter how you slice it, BTCUSD is not really an alternate currency, it is a Technology asset. We could see some big moves over the next 2-5+ days because of how the markets are setting up and how Gold/Silver are reacting. Buckle Up. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
3