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From Keynes to Adam Smith: SPY & TLT React to Policy Crossroads NASDAQ:TLT and AMEX:SPY have experienced significant declines at the open today , with the latter signaling a market shift away from a Keynesian economy—dependent on government spending that favors a handful of well-connected corporations—toward an Adam Smith-inspired liberal economy guided by the invisible hand. Could this transition, amid all the talk of tariffs, potentially drive inflation? The future direction of NASDAQ:TLT will hinge on how these new policies are implemented, particularly given that $2.2 trillion from the Fed’s 2020–2022 quantitative easing still lingers in the system. Pushing for interest rate cuts at this stage would certainly be a hasty move. Today’s rejection of technical resistance at $94.86 speaks volumes
NASDAQ:TLT
by YardCharts
SPY at the Edge! Will Buyers Step Up or Is More Blood Ahead?🔥 🚨 Market Structure Insight
SPY is currently in a sharp descending channel, respecting both the upper and lower trendlines. After a clean Break of Structure (BOS) at 546.97 and a failed CHoCH attempt, the price accelerated downward and is now hovering just above a key psychological round level near $500. The most recent BOS confirms a bearish continuation, but the current price is sitting at the bottom of the channel, where a short-term bounce may occur if momentum slows down. We're in the discount zone—a key area Smart Money often targets for reversals. Smart Money & Technical Zones * Resistance zone: $546.97 (last BOS area) * Support zone: $502.19 (recent swing low) * Channel bounds: Top near $550–560, Bottom near $500 MACD is starting to curve upward while Stoch RSI is lifting from the oversold zone — potential signs of a short-term relief rally. However, there’s no CHoCH yet to confirm a structural reversal. GEX & Options Sentiment Breakdown * IV Rank: 121.8 → Elevated implied volatility, prime for option premium selling. * IVx avg: 53.1 → Still rising, shows fear entering the market. * PUTS Dominate: 84.7% of options flow are puts. * GEX Bias: Strong negative gamma exposure, indicating dealer selling accelerates downside moves. * Key Support Walls: * $520: Highest negative NETGEX / Put Support. * $500: Second Put Wall with -76.41% pressure. * Resistance Walls: * $547: HVL and minor call resistance. * $560: 3rd CALL Wall, minimal resistance at 1.26%. Dealers are heavily short gamma, suggesting large directional swings and continued volatility. Trade Setups
Scenario 1 – Dead Cat Bounce (Bullish Relief Rally) * Entry: Above $510 with confirmation of strong volume or CHoCH. * Target 1: $520 (first structural test). * Target 2: $546–$551 HVL rejection zone. * Stop Loss: Below $502 Scenario 2 – Bearish Continuation * Entry: Rejection at $510–$520 zone or breakdown of $502 * Target 1: $495 psychological level * Target 2: $485–$475 (overshoot flush level) * Stop Loss: Above $522 Investor Strategy Insight
Long-term investors should remain cautious until SPY shows structural strength above $546. Until then, dollar-cost-averaging with tight capital allocation could be safer. This environment favors option sellers due to elevated IV, or high-conviction intraday scalping on well-defined levels. Outlook & Mindset
This week is dominated by uncertainty—rising global tariffs, geopolitical risk, and credit tightening all weigh on risk-on sentiment. SPY may enter a volatile range-bound phase between $500–$550, until new macro data shifts sentiment. If you’re trading SPY this week, don’t try to catch the knife. Wait for confirmation candles or volume shifts, and be nimble with risk. Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-7 : POP In Counter Trend ModeToday's POP pattern in Counter Trend mode suggests the markets will find support and attempt to POP upward a bit. I expect the SPY to attempt to reach levels above 505 today. Possibly trying to peak near 510. The same thing will happen with the QQQ - a potential rally (POP) higher targeting the 420-425 level. Watch this video TWICE if you really want to understand what is taking place in the markets right now. The tariff issue will settle over the next 15+ days. The SPY/QQQ are moving into the EPP Consolidation Phase (just like I've been telling you for months now). BTCUSD is moving into a BREAKDOWN phase and will likely target $63k over the next 30+ days. Gold and Silver reacted to the breakdown of the SPY/QQQ as they always do - PANIC SELLING. Now that the panic selling pressure appears to be subsiding, Gold and Silver should build a base and begin an explosive move higher - targeting $4200-4500 for gold and targeting $41-44 for silver. We live in exciting times and I still believe the US markets will DOUBLE or TRIPLE over the next 5-10+ years. Get Some.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by BradMatheny
13
YINN Massive drop, hold! Today’s drop on AMEX:YINN was brutal — no sugarcoating it. But in every downturn lies opportunity. This isn’t the first time we’ve seen this kind of volatility, and it won’t be the last. Why I’m holding: Long-term China exposure still holds strategic value. 🌱 Patience = Power If you believed in the long thesis yesterday, a dip doesn’t change the fundamentals overnight. The storm may be rough, but clear skies follow. ✊ Not financial advice, just conviction. Let’s ride this out.
AMEX:YINNLong
by Blakeeml
Spy Bear Market Territory Spy need's To Hold $482 Or Its even lower as go as low as $474ish..... I would like to see us hold $482 to possibly take the long to $495, Theoretically speaking if we actually open up Monday in this range that's exactly what i would be looking for call etc..... But because the market is so volatile i most likely wait a whole hour to decide when and where to take my position, But other than that if we hold $482ish i would long short term day trades ext if lower than $482 I'm short.... AS always good luck and safe trades traders
AMEX:SPYLong
by JoeWtrades
QQQ Crashes to Demand Zone! Market on Edge After Tariff Shock🔻 Market Context
The Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) took a severe hit after Trump’s proposed tariffs rattled the broader market. Investors fled risk-on assets, dragging tech-heavy indexes into a sharp sell-off. This capitulation-type flush aligns with the "risk-off" tone the options market has hinted at for days. Technical Analysis (1H + SMC)
QQQ broke structure decisively (BOS) and formed a bearish flag within a descending channel. Current price is hovering near the $420 support—this level acted as a major BOS zone, and we’re now testing it again from above. The Smart Money Concepts (SMC) show multiple CHOCHs failing to reclaim higher liquidity zones around $475–$480, marking this area as a strong distribution zone. MACD and Stoch RSI are near oversold levels, showing momentum exhaustion, but no clear bullish divergence yet. A small consolidation box is forming just above the demand zone. If this zone holds, a short-term relief bounce to retest $440–$448 could be in play. However, a breakdown below $419 would trigger further downside into the $405–$400 region. GEX-Based Options Sentiment (1H) * Highest Negative NET GEX / PUT Support is currently at $420, aligning perfectly with our price action floor. * GEX10 at $434 and GEX9 at $440–443 form resistance blocks for any short-term bounce. * The HVL at $475 (04/07 expiration) remains a major gamma magnet only if bulls reclaim $450+ levels. From a flow standpoint: * IVR: 101.8 – Options are relatively expensive. * IVx Avg: 56.7% – Increasing volatility confirms fear. * PUT$: 23.5% dominance – Bearish pressure is heavy. * GEX is deep in the bearish zone, with multiple red markers suggesting downside continuation risk is still high. Scenarios to Watch Bullish Scenario * Price holds $420 and forms a higher low. * Breakout above $440 opens door to $457 → $475 zone. * Risk-on confirmation if we reclaim $457 with strong volume. Bearish Scenario * Breakdown below $420 = major flush trigger. * Price could cascade to $405–$400 near previous fair value gaps. * Put support levels are likely to absorb some of the sell-off, but sentiment is fragile. Final Thoughts
This is a high-volatility week. Institutions are hedging heavily. Don’t fight the trend—watch for clear reclaim above $440 to go long. Otherwise, trade level to level and protect your capital. QQQ is not yet safe for investment—wait for reclaim above $457 and improving options sentiment before considering entries. For traders, short-term scalps off $420 with tight risk management are in play, but be prepared for violent swings. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
Is it time to short Tesla? If so TSLQ might be of interest.Tesla's ongoing turbulence is getting harder and harder to ignore even amongst some of the permabulls. Notably, Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives, a long-time Tesla bull, recently slashed his 12-month price target by a whopping 43% reduction noting concerns over CEO Elon Musk's political entanglements and the impact of new tariffs under President Trump's administration. If you think TESLA is likely to keep going down, you might want to consider NASDAQ:TSLQ a leveraged short position. TSLQ aims to deliver twice the inverse (-200%) of Tesla's daily performance. Its important though to understand that these types of leveraged trades are really only meant to be shorter term and if the stock starts to go up, then you will be losing at 2x the rate as well. Overtime, any wiggle up and down tends to work against you - even if the stock continues to go down. Definitely not trading advice, but something I was asked about today, and the current climate doesn't look overly positive for Tesla or Elon. TSLA article: finance.yahoo.com TSLQ info: www.tradretfs.com
NASDAQ:TSLQ
by zAngus