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Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 7–11, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 New U.S. Tariffs Begin April 9: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs — 10% on all imports, 25%+ on key sectors — could stir volatility. 🇨🇳📦 China Retaliates April 10: A 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods raises trade war fears and inflation concerns. 🏦💰 Big Bank Earnings Kick Off: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock will report. Markets will watch closely for financial health signals. 📉📊 March CPI Report Coming April 10: Inflation data could sway the Fed’s rate path. Forecasts call for a 0.1% increase. ⚠️ Volatility Alert: Piper Sandler projects a possible 5.6% move in the S&P 500 this week — up or down. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, April 7: 🗣️ Fed Gov. Kugler Speaks (10:30 AM ET) 💳 Consumer Credit (3:00 PM ET) — Forecast: $15.5B | Prev: $18.1B 📅 Tuesday, April 8: 📈 NFIB Small Biz Optimism (6:00 AM ET) — Forecast: 100.7 🗣️ Fed’s Mary Daly Speaks (8:00 AM ET) 📅 Wednesday, April 9: 📦 Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.4% | Prev: 0.8% 🗣️ Fed’s Barkin Speaks (11:00 AM ET) 📝 FOMC Minutes (2:00 PM ET) 📅 Thursday, April 10: 📉 Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 219K 📊 CPI (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.1% | Prev: 0.2% 🗣️ Fed Gov. Bowman Testifies (10:00 AM ET) 📅 Friday, April 11: 🏭 PPI (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.2% | Prev: 0.0% 🗣️ Fed’s Musalem Speaks (10:00 AM ET) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Quantum's Premium IWM Weekly OutlookSentiment Overall Sentiment: Bearish with potential for reversal. Options Activity: Recent data shows elevated put volume over calls (e.g., 8 puts Ascending Triangle DEX suggests a bearish directional bias. Posts on X indicate traders are eyeing short setups, reinforcing this sentiment. 1 OTM Premiums: 0DTE (April 7 expiration): Call: $182 strike, premium $1.20 (moderate IV, ~35%). Put: $180 strike, premium $1.35 (moderate IV, ~35%). Weekly (April 11 expiration): Call: $182 strike, premium $1.45 (moderate IV, ~32%). Put: $180 strike, premium $1.40 (moderate IV, ~32%). Notes: Premiums are kept under $1.50 for cost efficiency in 0DTE and weekly trades. IV levels are moderate, reflecting recent volatility spikes but not extreme conditions, making these contracts attractive for short-term plays. Technical Indicators: Weekly EMAs (8/13/48): The 8-week EMA ($198.50) is below the 13-week ($202.10) and 48-week ($208.30), confirming a downtrend. RSI (14-week): 32, nearing oversold territory, hinting at a possible bounce. Market Context: Small-cap stocks like IWM have been under pressure due to tariff fears and a hawkish Fed stance. However, oversold conditions and seasonal strength in April could signal a relief rally. Potential: Continuation of the downtrend is likely unless a catalyst reverses sentiment, but a short-term bounce to $185–$190 is plausible given oversold readings. Tariff Impact Exposure: Moderate to severe. Analysis: IWM tracks the Russell 2000, comprising small-cap U.S. companies, many of which are domestically focused (e.g., manufacturing, retail). A 10% universal tariff, 25% on Canada/Mexico, or 46% on Vietnam could raise input costs for these firms, squeezing margins. Sectors like industrials (20% of IWM) and consumer discretionary (15%) are particularly vulnerable. However, tariff impact may be overstated—rising interest rates and a strong dollar are likely stronger drivers of recent weakness. Critically, the narrative around tariffs often amplifies fear beyond fundamentals, offering contrarian opportunities if panic subsides. News/Catalysts Recent News: Trump’s tariff rhetoric intensified last week, with small-caps hit hardest (IWM down 9.5% in 1M). The Fed’s hawkish December stance continues to weigh on risk assets. Upcoming Events: April 8: Consumer Credit data release—could signal consumer health, critical for small-cap earnings. Mid-week: Potential tariff policy updates—speculative but impactful. Speculative Catalysts: X posts highlight short interest in IWM and oversold conditions, suggesting a squeeze potential. A surprise Fed pivot or tariff rollback could spark a massive rally. Alignment: Small-caps are sensitive to economic data and policy shifts, making IWM a prime candidate for volatility-driven moves. Technical Setup Weekly Chart: Key Levels: High Volume Node (HVN): $195–$199 (prior support, now resistance). Monthly Open: $199.78 (resistance). Weekly Low: $176.67 (support). Trend: Downtrend since March peak ($208.52), testing year-lows. One-Hour Chart: Support: $179–$180 (confluence with weekly low). Resistance: $182.50–$184 (prior consolidation zone). 10-Minute Chart: Entry/Exit: Bullish: Break above $181.50 (8-EMA) with a hammer candle for a long to $183. Bearish: Breakdown below $180 with volume for a short to $177. EMAs (8/13/48): 8 ($181.20) > 13 ($181.00) < 48 ($182.30)—choppy, no clear trend intraday. Indicators: RSI (14): 38 (10-min), neutral but rising—watch for divergence. MACD: Near zero line, flat—momentum stalling. Options Data Weekly Overview Gamma Exposure (GEX): Bearish—pinning near $180–$182, dealers hedging accelerates downside below $180. Delta Exposure (DEX): Bearish—put-heavy activity signals directional selling. Vega Exposure (VEX): Neutral—moderate volatility potential, no extreme IV spike expected. Implied Volatility (IV): Moderate (~32–35%)—elevated but manageable, favoring sellers over buyers. Open Interest (OI): Bearish—high OI at $180 put and $185 call strikes, capping upside. Potential Price Targets Bullish: $185 (+2.2%)—tests weekly HVN; $190 (+5%) if momentum builds. Bearish: $177 (-2.3%)—revisits year-low; $170 (-6.2%) on tariff escalation. Trade Idea Bullish 0DTE (April 7): Trade: Buy $182 Call @ $1.20. Entry: Break above $181.50. Target: $183 (profit $0.80, +66%). Stop: $180.50 (loss $0.70, -58%). Bearish 0DTE (April 7): Trade: Buy $180 Put @ $1.35. Entry: Breakdown below $180. Target: $178 (profit $0.65, +48%). Stop: $181 (loss $0.85, -63%).
AMEX:IWM
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
SPY with the cluster resistance rection! boost and follow for more 🔥 spy continues to break below the 557 level pivot level, I sold all my shares on the first break below last friday and have not added any back this week. that reclaim of 557 pivot level this week only led to a cluster resistance rejection which was another bearish sign, I dont like longs right now unless we reclaim 446. for now bearish action can continue. we will see I will keep monitoring SPY as always! GLTA
AMEX:SPYShort
by Aura_Trades
14
SPYAs investors, we must understand that in order for consumers to access cheaper products, sacrifices will be required in several key areas. Adjustments in Federal Reserve monetary policy (changes in the federal funds rate and balance sheet reduction) will directly impact GDP and real income. Likewise, consumer prices will reflect the impacts of inflation (CPI) and fiscal policies. Increases in labor costs (adjustments in wages and employment costs) will also play a crucial role in these changes. Private consumption (PCE) will be pressured by these dynamics, and businesses will have to decide between maintaining profit margins or passing these costs onto consumers. The key will be how these adjustments in prices and wages are negotiated, as the market seeks a new equilibrium between supply and demand. Prepare yourself, as these adjustments are part of a long and challenging process, but they are inevitable. #SPY #SP500
AMEX:SPY
by Ozy_Target
Market Update - 4/6/2025Was contemplating selling some puts to bet on a rebound next week given how oversold we are on all measures, but decided to pass. We are in uncharted territory and you never know how steep these markets can fall before they find support. After all, I'm not in the falling knife catching business. As for my active account, I only had a few small trades booking a small loss for the week. Still flat for the past month. Overall likely cash will continue to be king for a while. I'm always on the lookout for high RS names though, but now things are extremely shaky to be buying breakouts.
AMEX:IWM
by BenedekBokor
SPY: Week of April 7Hey everyone, Sharing the levels for next week. I don't have much of a forecast tbh, the thing is, in bullish markets its harder to forecast the long term, easier to forecast the short term. In bearish markets its easier to forecast the long term, harder to forecast the short term. Each week we have been up and down, taking out all highs and lows for the past few weeks owning to the volatility, and that is what makes it difficult to really adopt any forecast when most times we are just hitting all targets with the volatility. Here are some things for the short term: About 78% chance spy Retraces 528 507 is the reference target Based on the EMA 21, there is an 89% chance of seeing a bounce on SPY. Based on the EMA 50, there is a 69% chance. POC from last week is at 537. Will it bounce? Yes, I mean like I said, we take both highs and lows out each week, I don't really foresee this week to be any different, haha. And the longer term? So the real interesting stuff I guess is the longer term, but not that interesting. SPY is rapidly mean reverting. Right now the mean for SPY is around 481. This is actually within the forecasted levels for next week, so that's curious. In 2022, the mean was 350. It took exactly 10 months (from January to October) before we finally hit it (and went 2 points lower). At this pace, we are hitting it this month. Which is a concern. Why? Well let me tell you. There are corrections that are required to happen generally, just a general mean reversion, not necessarily fundamentally driven. That was the example of 2022. Then, there are corrections/crashes and cycles that are fundamentally driven. An example of this, for SPY, would be 2008. In the fundamentally driven crashes, for SPy those would be COVID, 2008 Financial Crisis, those surpassed means and let to a stark sell. COVID was pretty quick, but 2008 was really drawn out owning to the unfolding of economic events. The reason the 2 require distinction, is because technical and analysis are useless during fundamental corrections. You could draw fibs to the cows come up in 2008 and you would be bankrupt by month 3. However, in 2022, technicals and such worked fine because we were just doing a basic correction from getting too far from the mean. Interestingly enough, my comparison algorithm that compares the current year to similar years, for both SPY and SPX, has indicated that 2008 is the most similar year as of right now. This is a huge change from the results it gave even just a month ago. For fundamental sells, it doesn't stop until stuff gets resolved. As was the case in 2008 with the required bailouts, and once the dust settled from the multiple industries and businesses that went under. Then the market started a slow and painful recovery. The situation here is more similar to 2008 than the COVID crash. The reason being the main concern with COVID was economic shut down as a result of the pandemic. However, this was quickly curbed with modification of the work routine (industries working from home where applicable), the continuation of industries functioning and the huge stimulus that the government injected into the economy. Right now, the issue is a global trade war. In 2018, Trump only tariffed random items (mostly metals) on a few random countries. Right now, he is blanket tariffing the global economy. He doesn't even stop there and has to bring in my favourite animal, the Peunguins. God, Trump, what did they ever do to you? Leave the penguins alone! This is incredibly bad, its actually unprecedented. It is essentially a world war from an economic standpoint. And we are still waiting for the verdict on some bigger nations retaliatory tariff results. The global tariff war extends beyond just increase the cost of things, it actually may lead to a decrease in the US money supply, a rise in inflation and a huge cut to GDP for the US and other countries impacted. Trump could lift them, ease them or something. This would probably lead to some initial reaction to the market, but it seems the market doesn't even trust him anymore because when he kept playing those "just kidding" games into the beginning of the year, the market just stopped reacting to them. It is kind of funny. So the result is, it could be much worse than most anticipate, even myself. As of right now, my plan is to go long in the 480s, kind of on most things. Rebuild a portfolio. But as we progress, it seems that 480 may not indeed be the end. It just depends on Trump's mood at the time I suppose. From a purely math analysis: 481 is the mean for spy, we are following the annual bear market path which has as low as 468. Here is where we stand now on the annual assessment: And then in terms of mean reversion, SPX is the most interesting to take a look at: 4,791 is the mean. The last mean correction it has had was in 2022, same as spy: In addition, SPX just signaled a top/mean reversion signal. On the prospects of a bottom formation: None of my stuff indicates a bottom formation. In fact, we have some top signals just newly triggering, which is nuts I know but the reality. So that's .. good? Maybe, haha. Anyway, those are my thoughts. My suggestion is to continue to position defensively in anticipation of both up and downside next week. Safe trades! Also, for more deep diving into the fundamentals, sort of, consider reading this post from me if you haven't already:
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
29
Trading UVIX for Effective Hedge📊 Trade Idea: UVIX Multi-Layered Entry Strategy (Scalping Volatility Spikes) The current market environment presents a unique opportunity to trade the Volatility Shares 2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX), which has surged nearly 50% on Thursday and 124% over the last week. With ongoing fears surrounding President Trump's reciprocal tariffs, volatility is expected to remain elevated. 🔍 What Is UVIX? UVIX is a leveraged ETF designed to provide twice (2x) the daily return of the Long VIX Futures Index. Unlike the VIX itself, which measures expected market volatility, UVIX holds futures contracts on the VIX, aiming to profit from both upward spikes in volatility and the structure of the futures market. Pros of UVIX: High Return Potential: Can deliver significant gains when market volatility spikes. Effective Hedge: A powerful tool to offset losses during broad market declines. Liquidity: Offers easy access to volatility exposure without directly trading VIX futures. Cons of UVIX: High Volatility: Amplified moves can result in large gains or substantial losses. Decay & Compounding Issues: Daily rebalancing and futures roll costs can erode value over time. Not Suitable for Long-Term Holding: Designed for short-term plays, not buy-and-hold investing. Here’s my detailed risk-managed trading plan to profit from continued volatility. 🚀 Entry Strategy: Layered Buy Entries with Trailing Stops 🎯 Initial Entry: Entry Price: 80.00 (Just above the breached Supply Zone 0: 56.80 - 66.38) Stop Loss: Below the lower trend line from the recent parabolic move (For example, around 70.00). 📈 Position Scaling: Adding to Winning Positions Use Buy Stop Orders: As the price breaks above significant supply zones, place Buy Stop Orders to add positions. Scale in positions at: Level 1: Above 89.20 (Top of Supply Zone 1) Level 2: Above 113.25 (Top of Supply Zone 2) Level 3: Above 147.24 (Bottom of Supply Zone 3) Level 4: Above 182.36 (Bottom of Supply Zone 4) Manual Entries: Alternatively, you can manually add positions on strong breakouts during or outside Regular Trading Hours (RTH) to catch volatility spikes. !!!Use Limit Orders Outside RTH!! Place limit orders during off-hours to capture sharp volatility moves when liquidity is lower. Market volatility often increases during pre-market or post-market sessions. Capitalize on these moves with well-placed limit orders. 🛡️ Risk Management: Trailing Stops & Break-Even Protection Initial Stop Loss: Set below the lower trend line (e.g., 70.00). This provides a wide margin for market fluctuations while still protecting your position. Trailing Stop Loss: As the price progresses upward, move your stop loss to higher levels to secure profits. Use a dynamic trailing stop that follows major support levels or recent lows. Break-Even : Once UVIX has moved 10-20% above your entry point (80.00), move your stop loss to break even (80.00) for a risk free trade. 📌 Profit Targets Target 1: 130.79 (Historical 350% level from July 2024 move) Target 2: 165.46 (Top of Supply Zone 3) Target 3: 210.30 (August 2024 High) Adding positions as the price moves in your favor allows for maximum profit potential while limiting risk on initial entries. Moving the stop loss to break-even creates a risk-free trade, allowing you to ride the momentum without worry. Continually adjusting stops protects profits as they accumulate, ensuring that gains are secured even if the market turns sharply. 📣 Final Thoughts The Volatility Shares 2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX) is a powerful instrument for profiting from short-term volatility spikes. Given the current geopolitical and economic uncertainty, this setup offers a strong risk-reward opportunity. 💡Advice: Avoid Greed & Gambling in Volatility Trading Trading the Volatility Shares 2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX) offers tremendous profit potential during periods of heightened market volatility. However, the same leverage that can generate huge gains can just as easily cause significant losses. Avoiding greed and gambling behavior is crucial for your long-term success.
CBOE:UVIXLong
by MESHANL
1
US Small Companies Index ‘Russell 2000’ in Critical Trend!US Small Companies Index ‘Russell 2000’ in Critical Trend! Let's take a look from a Fundamental and Technical perspective; In 2020, the middle band (main trend line) of the logarithmic rising channel was broken and the upward movement had continued since then. Today, however, the same critical support level is being tested again. If it cannot hold at this level, a long-term trend break may occur. This would significantly increase the risk perception in Russell 2000 companies. What is Russell 2000? It does not include large technology giants such as Nasdaq or S&P 500, but small and medium-sized companies that hold the real pulse of the US economy. These companies are more fragile and more vulnerable to economic fluctuations. The spread of anti-Trump protests shows that small businesses are starting to be affected both physically and economically. The prospect of no interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (FED) is crushing these companies under high borrowing costs. The contraction in consumer spending can directly hit the profits of these companies because they are dependent on the domestic market. Possible Scenarios for This Week: 🔴 If the protests deepen and the market panics: If a break below $180 comes, the $170 support level is tested. With panic sales, the $150 - $160 region, which is the lower band of the channel, may come to the agenda. 🟢If the environment calms down and economic data signals a recovery: Strong purchases come from the middle trend line. $200 - $210 band can be targeted. In short, support is now being tested, if it breaks, the risk of serious decline is on the table.
AMEX:IWM
by ugurtash
How bad will it get? Let's talk about it!🌟 My Market Probabilities: 🌟 1⃣ 15% chance of a V-Shape recovery with a bottom at $410–$425 2⃣ 45% chance of a COVID-like Flash Crash resolving at $385–$400 3⃣ 33% chance of a 2022-level bear market down to $330–$350 4⃣ 5% chance of a 2008-level crash hitting $250–$260 5⃣ 2% chance of a crazy Dot.com-level crash dropping to $90–$110 💡 No matter which scenario unfolds, it’s a blessing in disguise! These dips create incredible opportunities to invest in great companies or indexes like the AMEX:SPY or NASDAQ:QQQ paving the way for massive, life-changing wealth over the years and decades to come. 🚀 Think long-term as an investor, friends, and stay focused on the bigger picture!
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by RonnieV29
8