late day updateBefore I go shopping. Bulls have everything to prove into the close. Some indexes are showing triangles and rising wedges. Nothing is certain this will be a bullish breakout yet.
ETF market
$QQQ Looks to Be in a Do or Die AreaNASDAQ:QQQ For a bull case, I need to see this get above both the horizontal area of resistance and the downtrend line on this 65 minute chart.
It looks like it could be forming yet another bear flag. All TBD. If it breaks the flag down, I would expect another leg lower.
So what we have here is a case of do or die. Hope this helps
Where were these, "the world is about to end" folks during 2022?I've seen waaaaaaay to many posts recently on multiple sites/apps regarding the stock market and how it's crashing under Trump... I dreaded politics when I was younger because it was always so divisive and more importantly, in my eyes, neither party was transparent. As I've gotten older, my feelings aren't as bad regarding politics as a whole but my feelings, towards each party in regards to the divisiveness they create and carry on has gotten worse. These feelings sometimes carry over to my network of friends, family, and community because a lot of times differences of opinion or feelings toward a political party or person also create a divide.
The main reason for this post is to point out a few reasons why people shouldn't have your panties all in a bunch regarding Trump... I included a screenshot of the stock price action for AMEX:SPY in 2022. As you can see, there were 4 different occasions, from Jan to Oct, where the market dropped double digit percentage points. Let's recap...
1/4/22 to 2/24/22, in 51 trading days the price dropped over 14%
3/29/22 to 5/20/22, in 52 trading days the price dropped over 17%
6/2/22 to 6/16/22, in 14 trading days the price dropped almost 13%
8/16/22 to 10/13/22, in 58 trading days the price dropped 19%
With that being said, from Jan to Oct of 2022, the market tumbled almost 27%. I don't recall seeing as many frantic posts, news commentators dragging and blaming the president everyday, or the POTUS supporters or non-supporters of the democratic party pointing fingers as much as I have recently.
I say this with all due respect to everybody and their individual opinion towards a party or person... I have never nor will I, ever attach my beliefs or moral compass to any specific political party or person so much that I need to block a friend (maybe not a friend to begin with), family member, or anyone else just because they disagree with me. I always loved diversity and it seems to be have become a distant memory to some just because of a difference in opinions. Obviously, this is a conversation that can go on for awhile but I just wanted to get that off my chest while also reminding some to reserve their panicking of a stock market crash or that the world is about to end because of the price of eggs or talks of changes in tariffs.
Again, just take a look back at the market in the year 2022 and remind yourself... the market has always had corrections throughout it's history and every time, it has rebounded and continued to evolve.
CRPTlong -term investment with this stock and a little return on dividends.Also i'm looking to hold long on this position
QQQ: What lies ahead for the Tech SectorWhat does the QQQ graph tell us about the current situation?
The QQQ is not trending upward within the channel that began in 2023 and is currently in a correction phase. The recent decline has weakened the previous momentum, making a significant short-term upward price movement less likely.
Does this correction damage the overall long-term upward trend that started in 2009?
There is no indication that the long-term upward trend has ended. As long as QQQ holds within the key support area of 400 to 415, the broader bullish trend remains intact.
At what level is the technology sector likely to start rebounding?
The critical area to watch is 450 to 455. If this level holds, the market has a chance to stabilize and perform better in the second half of the year.
However, if the 450 level fails to provide support, the worst-case scenario for 2025 suggests that the technology sector may begin its rebound near 415. In this case, due to weaker momentum, the potential upside would likely be limited, with a peak expectation around 540.
$DIA - Trading Levels for March 12 2025
Our trading range today here is completely underneath the Weekly 35EMA.
That is big. You know what happens when we close under that on the week, right 🫣
Ok I'm being a little dramatic but still - watch for a cross up on the indicator, looks like it could be a little divergent to give us a swing up today. maybe to the 200DMA
$IWM - Trading Levels for March 12 2025
30min 35EMA still holding as resistance - 198 support.
196 bottom of the implied move, and a bear gap above.
Wow I really did that in no particular order, huh?
GL, y’all - I put an iron condor on this 194/196/206/207 at 1.97
$QQQ - Trading Levels for March 12 2025
30min 35EMA IS the level to watch. Looks like QQQ is trying to find support there.
I did just sell 482/487 bear call spreads - that is a 5 dollar wide spread.
Bear gap at the top of the trading range. If you’re thinking of that spread let me suggest 1.75 as the first entry - then 2.25 if we keep moving up.
$SPY - Trading Levels for March 12 2025
30min 35EMA attack right at open. That level is a BEAST!!! It needs to be on your chart. 566/568 Bear call spreads if we pop up, order in at .90
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 12, 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above.
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Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change.
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Need any other charts daily, comment on this.
NVDL covered callBuy low, sell high? Great premium. NOT that much time really..? Strong resistance. I'll hold this one until expiration because I really wouldn't mind selling at $65
TQQQ. Did we just find a top ?Did we find a top in the stock market ? Will the bulls be able to reclaim their support line ? Let's see !
www.tradingview.com
SPY daily chart for March 12, 2025Hey traders! Checking out the SPY daily chart for March 12, 2025, and it’s looking like a critical moment. We’re sitting in a reversal zone ($556-$562), with the downtrend still in play via that sloping trend line (~$560-$565). MACD’s bearish, but the histogram is flattening, and Stochastic RSI is oversold—hinting at a possible bounce. Key levels: support at $556 (break below targets $540-$545), resistance at $562, $571.36, and $577.05, with $606-$607 as the big hurdle.
My plan: Long if $556 holds with a strong bullish candle, stop below $554, targeting $562 then $571. Short if we break $556 with volume, stop above $558, aiming for $545. Risk-reward 1:2, and I’ll watch volume closely—low moves can fake you out. News today could shake things up, so I’m staying flexible. What do you think—bullish bounce or more downside? Let’s discuss!
* Key Levels:
* Green resistance: ~$606-$607
* Red support/resistance zones: ~$562, $571.36, $577.05
* Current reversal zone: ~$556-$562
* Downward-sloping trend line intersecting around $560-$565
* Current Price: Appears to be in the $556-$562 range, near the lower end of the reversal zone.
* Indicators: MACD shows a bearish crossover with declining momentum, while Stochastic RSI is oversold (below 20), hinting at a potential bounce.
Technical Analysis
The SPY chart reflects a clear short-term downtrend, marked by the downward-sloping trend line and a series of lower highs and lower lows. The price has recently entered a reversal zone ($556-$562), which could serve as a support area. The MACD’s bearish crossover suggests continued selling pressure, but the widening histogram is starting to flatten, indicating a possible slowdown. The Stochastic RSI being oversold is a strong signal that a bounce or consolidation might be on the horizon, though it’s not a guaranteed reversal without price confirmation.
Key levels to watch include:
* Support: $556 is the critical level. A break below could push toward $540-$545.
* Resistance: $562 (top of the reversal zone), $571.36, and $577.05, with the trend line acting as dynamic resistance around $560-$565.
* Major Resistance: $606-$607, where prior resistance held firm.
Potential Scenarios
* Bullish Case: If SPY holds $556 with a strong bullish candle (e.g., hammer or engulfing pattern) and the Stochastic RSI begins to rise, we could see a move to $562 or even $571.36. Volume confirmation would be key.
* Bearish Case: A decisive break below $556 with high volume could accelerate the downtrend, targeting $540-$545. Watch for MACD to reinforce bearish momentum.
* Consolidation: The price might range between $556 and $562 if momentum remains indecisive, especially given the oversold conditions.
Game Plan for Today’s Trading Session
* Entry Points:
* Long: Enter long if the price respects $556 with a bullish reversal signal (e.g., a strong green candle). Set a stop-loss below $554. Target $562 initially, then $571.36 if momentum builds.
* Short: Enter short if the price breaks below $556 with confirmation (e.g., high volume, bearish MACD). Set a stop-loss above $558. Target $545, with a stretch to $540.
* Risk Management:
* Aim for a 1:2 risk-reward ratio. Risk $2 to make $4 per trade.
* Monitor volume—low volume moves are less reliable.
* Be cautious of macroeconomic news (e.g., FOMC updates or inflation data) that could sway the market today.
* Execution Tips:
* For day trading, consider a 1-hour or 15-minute chart to fine-tune entries.
* Watch the trend line rejection around $560-$565 for bearish confirmation or a potential bounce.
My Thoughts and Suggestions
I’m keeping a close eye on this reversal zone ($556-$562) as it feels like a make-or-break point. The oversold Stochastic RSI gives me hope for a bounce, but the downtrend isn’t done until we see a clear reversal signal. I’d lean toward a cautious long if $556 holds, but I won’t chase it without volume backing it up. On the flip side, a break below $556 could signal more pain, so I’ll be ready to short with tight stops. Today’s market moves might hinge on news, so staying flexible is key. Let’s see how it plays out—any thoughts from you all?
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 3-12-25 : Rally111 PatternToday's Rally pattern in Carryover mode may prompt a powerful base/bottom move in the SPY/QQQ.
In today's video, I explain in great detail how I read these charts and why the Excess Phase Peak (EPP) patterns are so important.
We are moving into the Consolidation Phase of the EPP patterns for the SPY/QQQ.
We are already into the Consolidation Phase of an EPP pattern for Bitcoin
Gold and Silver are a bit mixed. Yet Silver has already broken above the upper EPP Peak, rallying into a new EPP Peak level. Meanwhile, Gold is still struggling to find momentum for a bullish breakout.
While I don't believe the US markets are poised for a big downward price move, today's video shows you what may be likely 4 to 12+ months into the future.
So, pay attention to today's video. It clearly illustrates how to use the EPP patterns with Fibonacci and shows you what I believe could happen over the next 6 to 12+ months.
If the SPY/I continues to try to rally higher today, it will be interesting. This means we have potentially found our consolidation base and are now moving into a very volatile sideways consolidation phase.
Get some.
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Has the Market Been Shitting On You?It's no secret that markets are tough to navigate right now. That is why I have been finding sectors with potential and direction. While this one only has one of those characteristics, it is waiting for volatility expansion, and all signs point to the downside.
We don't need to trade everyday but, we should be able to identify stocks and ETFs that have potential and place those on our watch list. That is today's lesson.
Chart to watch DBC/SPYCommodities are left for dead even though they outperformed during 2021. This is a chart to watch for the long term imo. We could get a break out sometime in 2027
Time for EWJ outperformanceI do think the best way to play the US underperformance story is through Japanese equities. Europe has moved too fast in a short time frame, China seems to me like a short term story whereas Japan seems to be the best way to play it.
Corporate earnings growth has been present in Japan post GFC unlike China and Europe to a lower extent.
Japanese valuations are great and the economic story is starting to be interesting.
S&P underperformance against global marketsIn addition to previous post on spy/efa we can see the spy/urth actually testing the historic support and breaking down. The valuation differential + The destruction of US competitiveness as a result of tariffs would be tailwinds for the continued outperformance of row equities over the US
Multi decade asset allocation shift in the process?Rest of world equities (in particular europe) had been underperforming the US for essentially the post GFC era. It seems we are close to getting a test of the support for this decade+ trend. If we get a clear breakdown it might mean its time to bet on equities outside the US.
A few months ago we have gotten a gold breakout against the S&P which seems to me to be the start of a multi year trend.
If rest of world equities outperform that should mean that value would outperform growth. There is value in the US market in particular in the Energy, Healthcare and Small cap financials.
Staples performance against discretionary needs to correctThe rate at which staples had outperformed discretionary in this market correction calls for a short term bounce for discretionary against staples.
Historic gold/spy breakoutThis is going to be a multi year gold outperformance over s&p. S&P staring valuations are high and global geopolitics favoring gold reserves over usd reserves will likely help. Think of all the non western government that had billions/trillions parked in usd slowly change a portion of that into gold
Material SectorLooks to be time for a clear bounce in the materials sector. Seems to be a lagging sector the past few years being range bound. I do think we get a test of the channel resistance.
SPY S&P 500 etf Oversold on the RSI ! 2025 Price Target ! The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is flashing a major buy signal, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sitting at 28.33 — firmly in oversold territory. Historically, every time SPY has entered oversold levels on the RSI, institutional buyers have stepped in aggressively, driving sharp rebounds in the following weeks and months.
The last time SPY dipped below the 30 RSI threshold was during market pullbacks in 2022 and 2023 — both of which were followed by significant rallies as institutions capitalized on discounted valuations. The current setup is no different. With earnings growth stabilizing, inflation cooling, and the Federal Reserve signaling a potential shift toward rate cuts in the second half of the year, the backdrop for a recovery is aligning perfectly.
Technically, SPY is also approaching key support levels that have held strong in past market corrections. The combination of an oversold RSI and strong institutional appetite at these levels creates a compelling case for a bounce.
My price target for SPY by year-end is $640, representing over 15% upside from current levels. With sentiment stretched to the downside and technical indicators flashing green, SPY looks primed for a sharp and sustained rebound. Now could be the perfect time to position for the next leg higher.
