ETF market
Copper Nearing a Important DecisionCopper price began forming a negative move, activating with the negativity of the main indicators, to settle near the extra support at $4.5000, facing negative pressures will increase the chances for breaking the current support, to open the way towards targeting extra negative stations, which might begin at $4.4500 reaching $4.3100.
The failure to break the current support might push the price to form mixed trading, and there is a new chance for targeting 50%Fibonacci correction level near $4.6600.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.4500 and $4.5600
VAGX ETF: A Hidden Gem in an Era of Economic UncertaintyIn a world of shifting economic tides, investors are constantly searching for assets that offer both stability and growth potential. The Vanguard Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF (VAGX) may be one such opportunity, quietly accumulating strength amid global economic fluctuations.
Understanding VAGX ETF’s Accumulation Phase
VAGX tracks the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Float Adjusted and Scaled (CHF Hedged) index, which includes a diversified mix of corporate and government bonds. Since its inception in September 2021, the ETF has steadily grown, accumulating assets and reinvesting interest income to enhance long-term value. With 8,891 holdings and a low expense ratio of 0.10%, it offers broad exposure to global fixed-income markets.
Macroeconomic Landscape: Tariffs, Inflation, and Interest Rates
The global economy is at a critical juncture, with policy shifts and trade tensions shaping investment strategies. Key factors influencing VAGX’s potential include:
Tariffs & Trade Tensions: Recent tariff escalations have heightened uncertainty, impacting global trade and economic growth. This environment makes bond-based ETFs like VAGX attractive as investors seek stability.
Inflation Trends: Inflation is projected to moderate slightly in 2025, but remains a concern for central banks. Bond ETFs, particularly those with investment-grade holdings, can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures.
Interest Rate Outlook: The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates has been influenced by inflation and trade policies. While rate cuts may be delayed, fixed-income assets like VAGX can provide a reliable store of value in uncertain times.
Why VAGX Could Be a Strong Long-Term Holding
Diversification: Exposure to global bonds mitigates risk compared to single-market investments.
Accumulating Nature: Interest income is reinvested, compounding returns over time.
Hedged Against Currency Fluctuations: CHF hedging reduces volatility from exchange rate movements.
Low Expense Ratio: At 0.10%, it remains cost-efficient for long-term investors.
Final Thoughts
As the global economy navigates inflationary pressures, trade uncertainties, and interest rate shifts, VAGX ETF stands out as a stable, accumulating asset with strong long-term potential. Investors looking for a reliable store of value and gradual appreciation may find this ETF an attractive addition to their portfolios.
SIX:VAGX INDEX:BTCUSD SP:SPX TVC:DXY OANDA:XAUUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD $ EURONEXT:N100 SIX:SMI TVC:SXY
IHAK ETF remains a BUY for meAccording to this site Americans 60 and older lost $4.8 billion to cyber-crime in 2024......
That is a lot of money LOST. In the cyberspace, more digital information is stored online be it hard disk or using the cloud space. Hackers or digital criminals skilled in computer skills are able to access to private and confidential information of hospitals, government agencies and banks. There have been many cases being exposed online.
This gives the CEO sleepless nights as such sensitive information like medical records, financial information should be kept confidential. In comes the cyber security companies to help prevent this from happening.
So, in a big picture, all I need to know is more cyber crimes are happening worldwide as internet penetration gets deeper from desktops, laptops to mobile phones and people are almost unable to live without one device or multiple. Call it withdrawal symptom or addiction, the more people use, the more data/information is being stored and the more it needs to be protected.
That is why I like both the IHAK ETF . Since this is a pretty concentrated sector, I would prefer buying the blue chips cybersecurity company than to cherry pick the companies. This way, I have the best of both world and a margin of safety as well.
Of course, buying a broad based ETF , you cant expect the returns to beat the individual company so managing your own expectations is important.
As usual, please DYODD
IWM: Could Be a Gap Fill Day Today🔍 Posted by WaverVanir International LLC
Looking at IWM on the 15-minute chart, price action remains ambiguous — we’re caught in a range where traditional technical indicators are providing limited directional clarity.
However, our proprietary Decision Support System (DSS) is signaling a potential move based on LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model outputs. While human sentiment and chart structure may hesitate, machine learning is beginning to lean bullish.
🔹 Key Notes:
No clear breakout yet from this consolidation zone.
Volume remains subdued, signaling indecision.
LSTM forecasting engine from our DSS suite is tilting slightly bullish over the next 1–2 hours.
Awaiting confirmation from VWAP and liquidity sweeps before a higher conviction entry.
⚠️ Short-term traders: stay nimble. Machine guidance suggests preparing for a breakout, but price confirmation is critical.
🧠 “When human emotion falters, data continues.”
— WaverVanir DSS
THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT!🔥 THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT! 🔥
Can you see the shift?! VOLUME IS HERE—AND IT'S MASSIVE. 💪💰
Unlike those weak, fleeting rallies that got crushed under waves of red, this one is packed with bullish buyers and offside hedge funds READY TO SEND IT HIGHER. 🚀📈
Not to mention the last time we had this level of above average volume for this long was in October 2023 when we were coming out of a bear market and it was only the beginning of our ascent higher!
I'm not saying we can't have a pullback soon...I'm just simply saying the volume is here and it looks like dips will indeed be shallow.
ATH retest INBOUND!
Are you positioned for the move? 👀
AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ
XME eyes on $57.40: Golden Genesis a MAJOR barrier already felt XME recovering nicely from the tariff tantrum.
$57.40 is the exact level of the Golden Genesis.
High Energy object whose heat is clearly noticed.
It is PROBABLE that we orbit this object a few times.
It is POSSIBLE that it rejects to the retest fibs below.
It is PLAUSIBLE that bulls could blow thru it this time.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-19 : Gap Breakaway In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will start with an opening price GAP (downward in this case) and could continue to move into a Breakaway pattern.
Given the recent news of a US Credit Downgrade, I'm suggesting all traders prepare for what may become a period of sideways price volatility over the next 3-5+ days.
I've highlighted a potential breakdown range on the SPY/QQQ on my charts that I believe acts as a solid confirmation level related to any potential reversal/breakdown in trend.
Currently, the trend is still BULLISH. If price falls below my breakdown range (the angled rectangle on my charts) - then I believe price will have broken this upward FLAGGING trend channel and will begin to move downward - targeting lower support levels.
This is a critical time for the markets. If we fail to move higher at these levels, we have a long way to go (downward) before we attempt to find any support.
Gold and Silver appear to be attempting to break the FLAG HIGH of an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. This could prompt a strong rally phase back above $3300/$33 for Gold/Silver over the next few days. Time will tell how things play out.
BTCUSD appears to be REJECTING the recent highs within a consolidation range. If this rejection continues, I see BTCUSD moving downward - trying to reach the $95k (or lower) looking for support.
Remember, we are still generally BULLISH and moving upward within the FLAGGING channel. If we do get a breakdown in price over the next few days, it will become clearly evident on the charts and we'll have to begin to change our expectations.
Right now - HEDGE.
Get Some...
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SMH watch $212.82 above 209.43 below: Proven zone to form Trend SMH showing the recovery process of the chip sector.
Now testing a well proven zone defined by major fibs.
Golden Genesis fib at $209.43 and Covid fib at $212.82.
Look for a Break-and-Retest a Rejection.
If rejected, look for support at $191.23/85
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Europe’s Center is CRUMBLING: VGK on the Brink? 🚨 Europe’s Center is CRUMBLING: VGK on the Brink? 🚨
Europe’s elections just lit a FUSE! 💥 Poland (May 18), Portugal (May 18), and Romania (May 4 & 18) held off populists, but the center’s hanging by a thread—50% in Poland went right-wing, Portugal’s Chega is shaking things up.
Immigration and globalization fury could rattle EU trade & policy. 📉 VGK ($75.53) is inches from its yearly high ($75.56)—ready to crash or soar?
💡 Trade Idea: Plot VGK price action with election dates (May 4, May 18, June 1, 2025) to spot volatility breakouts. Watch for support near $70 or resistance at $76.
❓ Your Move? Will VGK tank or rally on Europe’s chaos? Drop your trade below! 👇
SPY | RANGE TRADE | Dark Pool Activity | (May 19, 2025)SPY | RANGE TRADE | Dark Pool Activity + Structural Shift | (May 19, 2025)
1️⃣ Insight Summary:
SPX is still trading near a key sell zone, and recent dark pool activity suggests a possible shift in market structure. A correction from here wouldn’t be surprising.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Neutral with Short Bias
Entry Zone: Watching current highs as a potential area to fade
Stop Loss: Above recent highs (tight and reactive)
TP1/TP2: Targeting lower support zones if correction unfolds
Alternative Setup: If support holds and structure flips, I may look for reactive longs
3️⃣ Key Notes:
✅ Notable dark pool prints showed up on Thursday, indicating potential distribution — this has changed how I view the market structure
✅ I’m preparing for a “sell the highs, buy the lows” scenario inside the current range
❌ A clean breakout above the current resistance zone would invalidate the short bias
💡 I’ve outlined both long and short scenarios — it's all about reacting to what price gives us
4️⃣ Follow-up Note:
If things start moving sharply, I’ll post an update with chart visuals and refined zones. Also, let me know if you'd like my dual-path trade planning template — it’s great for these types of setups.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible.
Disclaimer: This is not a financial advise. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK): FAQ guide before investing🚀 Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK): A Deep Dive into Holdings and Hypothetical Returns
🌟 The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) is a popular exchange-traded fund offering investors access to some of the largest and most dynamic growth-oriented companies in the U.S. market. MGK closely tracks the CRSP US Mega Cap Growth Index, emphasizing mega-cap stocks.
🎯 Key Features of MGK
💰 Expense Ratio: 0.07%, a cost-effective choice for investors.
📊 Assets Under Management: Around $25.42 billion.
💵 Dividend Yield: 0.44%, distributed quarterly.
🏆 Top Holdings:
🍎 Apple Inc. (AAPL): 14.34%
🖥️ Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): 11.93%
🎮 NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): 10.70%
📦 Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): 7.63%
📱 Meta Platforms Inc. (META): 4.33%
🔌 Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): 3.54%
🚗 Tesla Inc. (TSLA): 3.22%
💊 Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY): 3.20%
💳 Visa Inc. (V): 2.76%
🔍 Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): 2.31%
📌 Sector Allocation:
💻 Technology: ~52.8%
🛒 Consumer Discretionary: 15.9%
📡 Communication Services: 11.0%
📈 Performance Overview
MGK has consistently demonstrated strong returns:
🗓️ Year-to-Date (YTD): 0.96%
📅 1-Year Return: ~21.09%
📆 3-Year Return: ~23.26%
📊 5-Year Return: ~19.26%
💸 Hypothetical Investment Scenarios
Assuming an average annual return of 19.26%, here's how various investments might grow over five years:
💲 $10,000 Investment:
Year 1: $11,926
Year 2: $14,219
Year 3: $16,951
Year 4: $20,207
Year 5: $24,070
💲 $100,000 Investment:
Year 1: $119,260
Year 2: $142,190
Year 3: $169,510
Year 4: $202,070
Year 5: $240,700
💲 $1,000,000 Investment:
Year 1: $1,192,600
Year 2: $1,421,900
Year 3: $1,695,100
Year 4: $2,020,700
Year 5: $2,407,000
⚠️ Note: These returns are hypothetical and assume consistent annual performance, which may not reflect actual market volatility.
🔑 Considerations for Investors
🎯 Concentration Risk: MGK heavily invests in technology and a few major stocks, tying its success closely to these specific companies.
📉 Market Volatility: Although historically strong, MGK can be highly volatile, particularly during tech-sector downturns.
📈 Long-Term Growth: Ideal for investors seeking significant long-term capital appreciation through prominent U.S. growth firms.
📌 In Summary: MGK provides focused exposure to U.S. mega-cap growth stocks with a strong track record. Investors should consider portfolio diversification carefully due to its sector concentration.
S&P500 2022 into the Bear Market. Same Pattern 2025In 2022, before the bear market began, we saw the same pattern that we're seeing now:
1. Sine wave pattern
2. Fake recovery
3. Break above the sine wave top
4. Sharp decline
Last week, right after the sine wave top was broken, U.S. bonds were downgraded AFTER OFFICIAL MARKET SESSION!
It’s no surprise that rating agencies are losing confidence in the U.S. government's ability to repay its debts.
Just look at the rising interest payments — if that’s not a wake-up call, I don’t know what is. 😕
I don’t live in the U.S., but I’m genuinely concerned that a collapse — which now seems nearly inevitable — will impact the entire world.
Going long in U.S. markets under these technical and fundamental conditions? Putting all your eggs back into that basket? Really?
I hope this gives some perspective.
Trade safely, trade small, and keep your risks minimal.
Spy Road To?Weekly Thesis for SPY
Weekly High: $594.50
Weekly Low: $589.28
Weekly Close: $594.20
52-Week Range: $481.80 – $613.23
Critical Breakdown Level: 581
Why 581 matters:
It sits well below S₃ (585.60) and aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the past four-week swing (High 594.50 → Low 566.76), which calculates to roughly 581.10.
A decisive weekly close below 581 would breach both pivot-derived supports and this Fibonacci zone, opening the door to deeper pullbacks toward the May 9 low near $564.34
Potential Sell-Wall at 604
Why 604 is a resistance cluster:
It sits just above R₃ (601.26), a confluence of weekly pivot resistance and likely profit-taking levels.
A series of limit orders tend to cluster near these round-number extensions, forming a “sell wall” that may cap any rally unless broken on strong volume.
4. Strategy & Outlook
Caution advised: SPY must hold above 581 on a weekly close basis. A failure to do so would invalidate the recent up-move and likely lead to a test of lower support zones around 587 and 585, then potentially the mid-560s.
Bullish breakout: Only a sustained weekly close above 604—ideally on above-average volume—would signal renewed upside conviction and pave the way toward the 52-week high at $613+.
Action plan:
Wait for confirmation – don’t enter new longs until either 581 holds convincingly or 604 is cleared.
Use tight risk controls – if deploying swing trades, place stops just below 581 for longs or just above 604 for shorts.
Monitor volume – validate any breakout/breakdown with volume spikes to confirm institutional participation.
Im Waiting On Confirmation as Always Safe Trades & JoeWtrades
Equities VS Bonds, why the current divergence?Introduction: should we finally go back to buying bonds? While the equity market has rebounded vertically since mid-April and the start of a period of trade diplomacy between the USA and its main trading partners, bond prices have remained at a low level.
Although both realized and implied volatility have fallen sharply in recent weeks (see our bearish analysis of the VIX at the end of April), how can we explain such a divergence between the recovery in US stock prices and a bond price still at the bottom?
For bonds, is this an opportunity to position at an attractive price?
1) First of all, take a look at the two charts below, which show the underlying trend and the recent trend of the S&P 500 (for the equities market) and the 20-year US interest rate contract (to represent the bond market)
Chart showing weekly Japanese candlesticks on the S&P 500 future contract
Graph showing monthly Japanese candlesticks on the US 20-year bond contract
2) The reasons for the outperformance of equities versus bonds are numerous and fundamental
The underperformance of bonds versus equities is based on a combination of fundamental factors:
- Firstly, corporate profit forecasts remain optimistic for the next 12 months, creating a favorable arbitrage for the equity market (see our previous analysis of the S&P 500 index).
- The Federal Reserve's (FED) intransigence in the face of the risk of a rebound in inflation against the backdrop of the trade war. The market does not expect a resumption of the US federal funds rate cut before the monetary policy decision on Wednesday September 17. The inverted correlation between interest rates and bond prices is therefore a factor putting pressure on prices.
- Beyond monetary policy, the United States' fiscal trajectory is also a topic of debate. The Republican bill to massively lower taxes could further deepen the federal deficit and add to an already colossal public debt, keeping long-term interest rates high. All the more so since, according to the Peterson Foundation, nearly $9.3 trillion in debt will mature over the next 12 months, adding to the estimated $2 trillion in deficit financing needs.
- The new all-time high in global liquidity is creating a favorable arbitrage for risky assets in the stock market, due to the positive long-term correlation between the S&P 500 index and global liquidity
3) Even so, current bond prices are in a technical zone of long-term interest, and forward-looking fundamentals could allow bonds to rebound in the coming months
The latest macroeconomic indicators confirm a loss of momentum in the US economy. In April, producer prices suffered their sharpest contraction in five years, suggesting that companies are absorbing some of the higher costs associated with trade tensions. At the same time, retail sales stalled, as consumers cut back on purchases in the face of persistent inflation on imported goods. If confirmed, these signs of a slowdown could lead to a “flight to quality” phenomenon, i.e. arbitrage in favor of the bond market over the coming months.
The chart below is a reminder that the US bond market is currently at a major technical support level.
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