LABU needs some love, i think it will get it soon.This setup is looking pretty nice. Has bounced almost every time at this support, I think it shall for the accumulation highs at my top line.
ETF market
$SPYLooking to sweep the CRT lows to swipe Liquidity, then wait for our Long entry, looking for a FVG or retest OB.
$IWM Tradespoon - Long Entry $222.60Tradespoon model generated long signal for AMEX:IWM with key support at $222.60 and resistance at $226.90. Favorable macroeconomic conditions and cooling inflation support small-cap growth. Predicted range: $222.60–$224.65. AMEX:IWM
12/22/24 Weekly Watchlist + NotesAMEX:SPY - Huge sell off across the board from FOMC news on Wednesday. SPY sold off down through previous Broadening Formation range reclaiming previous downside pivot just below 684. So with that in mind, we expand out of the BF below that pivotal low, or come back through range above it. With SPY currently setup to potentially go 3-2 daily, we look to see whether fridays high or low gets taken out. Being above the pivot at 684, we are looking to come back through that BF range and make new ATHs as of now. Of course this can all change depending on whether our W is green or red, but for now we are closer to making a daily HH than a LL. With Christmas being this week, the markets close 2 hours early on Tuesday, and re open on Thursday. Being a short week like this, we need to be extra cautious as there will be lower than normal volume, and simply less time for the weekly candle to form, so expectations on a large move this week as most seem to be predicting, may not happen for the prior reasons. Personally will not be trading Tuesday and possibly not at all this week if I don't see absolute A+ setups.
Watchlist:
Bullish:
NASDAQ:NVDA - Pot. 1-3-2U Daily to trigger failed 2D hammer week. Swept BF lows this past week. Looking to come back through range. This is a big name for the markets, so I expect that if the markets are recovering, this will lead the way or follow with it
NASDAQ:MU - 2-2U reversal potential daily to target gap fill from ER. We took out weekly BF mag on friday, hitting exhaustion levels after finally escaping the motherbar it was stuck in for the last 11 weeks. One side gets toasted, magnitude is hit for W and M. All the ingredients for a big recovery. Only issue is being stuck in last weeks range
NASDAQ:PLTR - potential 3-2D for a simultaneous weekly 2-1-2U trigger. Nuclear green on all TFs. Slight room to go to target ATH again, but mainly looking for the weekly inside up measured move, meaning if we go 2-1-2U, we can expect the same move up as we had in the week prior to last weeks inside bar week.
Cruise Lines: NYSE:CCL + NYSE:NCLH Weekly hammers. NYSE:RCL Not a clean weekly AS, but similar daily to other names in the industry.
Bearish:
NASDAQ:TSLA - 3-1 4Hr to trigger MoMo shooter Daily to trigger Shooter Weekly 2-2. Daily PMG to target from ATH Exhaustion. (Big green day for most names Friday, why was TSLA so bearish with such relative strength lately?)
NASDAQ:AVGO - Shooter 2U Day to trigger 2-2 shooter week. Huge gap up from earnings. Looking to attack the gap.
NYSE:KO - MoMo Shooter 2D day to trigger 2-1-2D week. Having issues making range lately, but daily BF is targeting lower still, and weekly 2-2d has yet to be negated. Inside week will confirm more downside to target our BF magnitudes on the D and W, or it will be negated by a 2U week. Simple plan here. Short under prev week low, exit if back above.
NYSE:UBER - MoMo shooter 2d Weekly to reconfirm M 2D and Q 2U going 3. Check Monthly for the BF. Wanna see continuation lower to Q mag at 54.84. No daily AS but 3-1 4HR. May be a slower mover on the list. Basing all my decisions on the weekly as the momo shooter should simply just trigger and work
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) About To Go Down - TIMBER!📉 Overview:
The S&P 500 (SPY) is signaling a bearish reversal with technical and momentum indicators aligning for a potential decline. A completed 5th wave top, coupled with a breakdown from the bearish wedge, hints at deeper corrections in the coming sessions.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Elliott Wave Count:
SPY has likely completed its 5th wave top, marking the end of the bullish cycle.
Bearish Wedge Breakout:
Price has decisively broken below the rising wedge's trendline, a historically reliable bearish signal.
Momentum Indicators:
- RSI Divergence: Clear bearish divergence as price created higher highs while RSI formed lower highs.
- MACD: Loss of upward momentum, with the MACD histogram turning negative.
Fibonacci Targets:
- Retracement Zone (B): $598–$606 (61.8%–88% retracement of recent decline).
- Target 1 (C): $570.35 (1.0 Fibonacci extension).
- Target 2 (C): $559.67–$553.07 (1.382–1.618 Fibonacci extension).
🌐 Macro Sentiment:
Interest Rate Concerns:
Continued hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could weigh on equities, particularly as valuations remain elevated.
Economic Slowdown:
Weakening macroeconomic data and potential earnings downgrades in early 2025 could amplify selling pressure.
Seasonality and Risk-Off Trends:
End-of-year profit-taking and increased geopolitical risks may favor defensive positions.
⚡ Trade Plan:
- Short Zone: $598–$606 (retracement of recent sell-off).
- Stop-Loss: $606.82 – Above the 88% Fibonacci retracement and resistance.
Targets:
- Target 1: $570.35 (solid risk-reward).
- Target 2: $553.07 (extended move aligning with wedge breakdown projection).
🔍 Considerations:
Monitor economic data, including inflation, GDP growth, and job numbers, for additional confirmation.
Watch for further MACD weakness and RSI failing to reclaim bullish momentum levels.
Do you think SPY will see a sharper correction, or are bulls likely to regain control? Share your insights! 🚨📊
Some loading points you might be interested inThe red lines are from the monthly that show QQQ in a tight channel since 1/23.
The white lines show some recent support and resistance levels.
It broke resistance on the second attempt and resistance has now become support. I think $517 is a crucial level and will probably be revisited seeing how overbought my indicators show. It's 50% of wave 3 and I think a good loading level (plus a gap close) with the previous resistance level serving as a stop loss and short entry. If I'm correct I am expecting a 15 point gain from $517 in approximately 3 weeks (give or take a few trading days). Let me know how you see it, would love added perspectives
QQQ to $600 part 3 and final video (it's been a pleasure)Last week was amazing and I hope more of the same this week coming up.
Key levels to long $525 with your preference of stop loss.
Key levels to short $511 with your preference of stop loss.
Traders BEWARE! Extreme Volatility In 2025-26. LOOK OUT!I just completed a deep dive into my Adaptive Dynamic Learning modeling system, and I'm here to tell you that 2025 and most of 2026 will be highly volatile.
If you do not attempt to stay ahead of these market trends, you could suffer a loss of 35% to 45% (or more) over the next 18 months or more.
If you want to learn how to navigate these trends, I suggest you find someone you trust to help you identify the best opportunities for your investments and trading.
This is no joke.
This is the type of event that destroys trader's accounts and disrupts global economies.
If you are not prepared for this, get busy trying to find someone to help you.
Merry Christmas. Buckle up.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
DIA - Daily Bullish L2 Exhaustion SignalAMEX:DIA has triggered a daily bullish level 2 exhaustion signal. This signal has triggered 13 times over the past 20 years with a win rate of 84.6% and average move of +3.6%.
SPY: Growth & Bullish Forecast
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the SPY pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move up.
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QQQ: Expecting Bullish Movement! Here is Why:
The price of QQQ will most likely increase soon enough, due to the demand beginning to exceed supply which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair.
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QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF) – Breaking Down in the Future📉 Overview:
QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, is showing signs of exhaustion at the $535.55 resistance zone. A corrective pullback is anticipated as the ETF completes its 5th wave, aligning with overbought conditions and broader macroeconomic headwinds.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Resistance Zone:
- Key Levels: $527.78–$535.55 (88% Fibonacci retracement).
This zone has capped recent bullish attempts, with a potential reversal into a bearish wave structure.
Elliott Wave Count:
- Wave 5: Likely complete, with a corrective wave (A-B-C) unfolding.
A break below the support trendline could signal the start of a more significant decline.
Targets:
- Target 1: $515.55 – Near-term pullback zone aligned with Fibonacci confluences.
- Target 2: $498.58 – Corresponds with the 1.0 Fibonacci extension of the corrective wave.
- Extended Target: $480.28 – Major support zone and 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
- Stop-Loss: Placed above $535.55 to avoid false breakout risks.
🌐 Macro Analysis:
Tech Sector Challenges:
- Rising interest rates are a headwind for growth-oriented sectors like technology, which dominate QQQ.
- Valuations appear stretched, leaving little room for error as earnings season approaches.
Economic Data:
Market sentiment is fragile amid concerns over slowing economic growth and potential Fed tightening in early 2025.
Nasdaq-100 Dependency:
Heavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech stocks makes QQQ vulnerable to concentrated risks.
⚡ Trade Plan:
- Short Entry Zone: $527.78–$535.55.
Risk-Reward Setup:
- Stop-Loss: $535.55.
- Target 1: $515.55 (RR ~ 2:1).
- Target 2: $498.58 (RR ~ 4:1).
- Extended Target: $480.28.
🔍 Considerations:
Look out for Nasdaq-100 earnings reports, which could act as a catalyst for volatility. Monitor economic releases, such as inflation and jobs data, which could shift sentiment.
Is QQQ poised for a reversal, or could the bulls defy the odds? Share your thoughts in the comments! 🚨📉
Market Update - 12/22/2024• still only 14% invested, the week was quite bad, most stocks sold off
• however, some stocks, especially space names, tech and retail are holding up very well
• given we are quite oversold short term and we could get an aggressive rebound next week, these stocks might be good breakout candidates
• will still stay small in terms of position sizing (5% max) until we get more traction
Singapore STI ETF (EWS) WipeoutOne week to wipeout the last five and a half weeks, at leasst 70% of the rally gains.
What does that tell you?
Very strong and surprising large bear.
So the EWS (Singapore Straits Times Index ETF) is telling us so...
MACD has a lower high, obviously weak, and now a cross down. The Rate of VolDiv custom indicator is pointing to continued lower inflows since April (despite a strong rally) and was earlier warning of an unsustainable rally.
The week's breakdown also broke the modified SuperTrend trailing stop (support) line.
What does this mean?
A break back into the Decision Boxm, and a breakdown through to the lower side all the way to the mid-2024 lows. BUT in order for this to happen, it probably needs the new year rally to make a weak attempt to get a lower high then the breakdowns come in waves in 2025.
Heads up... herein have been warned.
VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) – Going Down SoonOverview:
VTI is currently facing resistance at the $301.85 level, where bulls need a breakout to reverse the bearish momentum. However, the recent price action suggests a potential continuation of the bearish wave structure, aligning with broader market uncertainties.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Key Resistance Zone:
The resistance zone at $301.21–$301.85 is derived from the 88% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downtrend. This area is critical for the bulls to reclaim control.
Bearish Elliott Wave Setup:
- Wave W: Completed, marking a significant decline.
- Wave X: Nearing completion at the resistance zone, with a bearish reversal expected.
- Wave Y: Targeting lower levels as part of the corrective wave sequence.
Targets:
= Target 1: $289.76 – This aligns with a key support area and the 1.0 Fibonacci extension.
- Target 2: $280.81 – Corresponds with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and aligns with historical support.
Stop-Loss: Placed above $301.85 to account for false breakouts while maintaining a favorable risk-reward ratio.
🌐 Macro Analysis:
Economic Conditions:
1. Rising interest rates and a cautious Federal Reserve stance are weighing on the broader market, including total market ETFs like VTI.
2. Persistent inflation concerns and slowing economic growth create additional headwinds.
Sector Rotation:
3. Defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare are gaining traction, suggesting risk-off sentiment in the broader market.
Investor Sentiment:
Investors remain wary of market volatility, with a shift toward bonds and cash as safe-haven assets.
📌 Trade Plan:
- Short Entry: Between $301.21–$301.85, contingent on bearish confirmation at the resistance.
- Risk Management: Stop-loss at $301.85.
- Profit Targets: First target at $289.76 and second target at $280.81, ensuring a robust risk-reward ratio.
⚠️ Risk Considerations:
Watch for macroeconomic events, such as Federal Reserve announcements and inflation data, that could impact market direction.
Monitor VTI’s reaction at the resistance zone for potential invalidation of the bearish setup.
Do you agree with this bearish outlook on VTI, or do you see a different trend unfolding? Share your thoughts! 🚨📉
VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) – Bearish Wave ContinuationOverview:
This analysis on VOO highlights a possible short opportunity as it completes a corrective wave structure. Utilizing Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci retracement, we anticipate a reversal within the resistance zone leading to further downside continuation.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Elliott Wave Structure:
- Wave W: Completed with a significant drop, signaling bearish momentum.
- Wave X: Retracement phase nearing completion at a critical resistance zone ($550.77–$551.54).
- Wave Y: Expected continuation lower, targeting key Fibonacci extensions.
Fibonacci Analysis:
- Resistance Zone: $550.77–$551.54 (between 61.8% and 65% retracement).
- Stop-Loss: $557.91 (just above the 88% retracement for protection).
- Target 1: $538.66 – Previous support level aligning with the 1.0 extension.
- Target 2: $526.78 – Confluence of the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and structural support.
Bearish Confirmation:
Price rejection within the resistance zone will confirm the setup.
Look for increased volume and bearish candlestick patterns before entering the trade.
🌐 Macro Overview:
Market Sentiment:
Continued market uncertainty driven by inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate policies may dampen bullish sentiment.
Economic Data:
Weakening consumer sentiment and declining corporate earnings expectations suggest potential downside for the S&P 500 ETF.
Sector Impact:
Tech-heavy sectors and growth-oriented stocks within the S&P 500 are likely to face pressure due to rising yields.
📌 Trade Plan:
- Short Entry: Between $550.77–$551.54 within the resistance zone.
- Risk Management: Stop-loss at $557.91.
- Profit Targets: Target 1 at $538.66 and Target 2 at $526.78, offering a solid risk-reward ratio.
⚠️ Risk Considerations:
Monitor economic events such as CPI releases or Federal Reserve statements, as they could affect the broader market trend.
Would you take this trade, or do you see the market moving differently? Let me know in the comments! 🚨📉
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) Short Setup – Retracement OpportunityOverview:
The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) shows a potential short opportunity, leveraging a confluence of Elliott Wave and Fibonacci resistance. This setup aligns with a bearish corrective pattern, presenting a chance to capture downside momentum amidst macroeconomic uncertainties.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Elliott Wave Structure:
Wave W completed with a sharp decline, followed by a retracement in Wave X.
Anticipating the continuation of Wave Y lower, targeting Fibonacci extensions.
Fibonacci Levels:
Entry Zone: $598.33–$599.23 (between the 61.8% and 65% retracement).
- Stop-Loss: $606.64 (above the 88% retracement to account for false breakouts).
- Target 1: $585.78 – Aligns with prior support and Fibonacci extensions.
- Target 2: $570.14 – Extended target toward the 1.618 projection.
Short Zone Confirmation:
The short zone aligns with key resistance levels that previously rejected bullish attempts.
🌐 Macro Overview:
Economic Indicators:
Rising treasury yields and persistent inflation concerns are weighing on equities, particularly large-cap indices.
The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates adds pressure to SPY's bullish outlook.
Seasonal Trends:
Historical December pullbacks in risk assets during rate-hike cycles favor bearish scenarios.
Market Sentiment:
Investor sentiment remains cautious, with increasing volatility indicating indecision in the broader market.
📈 Trade Plan:
Short Entry: Wait for price action to retrace into the short zone ($598.33–$599.23).
Risk-Reward: Targeting a 3:1 risk-reward ratio with both short-term and extended profit targets.
Caution: Monitor fundamental announcements such as labor market data or Federal Reserve statements, as these could drive volatility and invalidate the setup.
📌 Final Thoughts:
SPY offers a clean technical setup supported by a bearish macro narrative. This trade allows for tight risk management while capturing a potential extended downside move.
Let me know your thoughts or if you'd trade this setup differently! 🚨📉
Stock Market Analysis | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOGL MSFTStock Market Analysis | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOGL MSFT
Interesting trend line confluence on QQQ: Bull CaseNobody knows what is going to happen, but this confluence of trend lines is at least interesting.
There is a short term uptrend since the August low that converged pretty perfectly with a longer term trend line that seems to have had some weight as resistance since summer of 2023. It has been broken at times, but price has always come back in and has spent a lot of time respecting it.
This month we broke above it again and then on Friday we opened below both lines, only to rally back up and close above them.
There is also a resistance line that along with the short term support line can be seen as a rising wedge that was broken on December 4th. This latest drop took us down through the front of that wedge but on Friday we closed back above it.
Now the market of course does not have to follow any of these lines, but I thought the confluence was interesting. Could this all just be a retest of the wedge we just broke out of to the upside? Could the longer term resistance line finally be flipping to support? In that case, we could be at the beginning of a much bigger upside move.
To be clear, I do also see credible downside possibilities, but there is some confluence and some strength worth noting here.
SPY to $650 in January?SPY recently retraced to the bottom of our Magic Linear Regression Channel with a large 3%+ move. Today, there was a nice bounce bounce from the channel bottom, back up to yesterday's open. So, what's next for SPY. The Magic Linear Regression Channel shows upside potential to it's baseline back at its recent all-time highs, and the potential for a higher move to the $630-$650 range. However, there is also the potential for it to fall back through the channel. Since we've been in a bull market for awhile now, that channel break would have to happen more definitively in order for that to be a likely scenario.
We've recently introduced the Magic Candles PRO indicator, which shows high volume candles that have very little price movement. When paired with the Magic Linear Regression Channel on a 1 day chart, it tends to show reversals at key levels on the Magic Linear Regression Channel. However, because we had a large move down on Weds, Dec. 17th 2024, and a large move up on Friday, Dec. 20th 2024 and ended up at the open of Thurs., Dec. 18th 2024, we get a doji on the 2 day chart that shows a massive "volume hammer" signal not seen since 2019, 5 years ago.
This signals that we are on the verge of a large sustained move. Again, because we've been in a bull market, and there aren't any very strong signs that it is over, we suspect that the large sustained move will be to the upside, because of the signal. If the price breaks down out of the channel, then we'll be in for a nice downward ride. Until that happens, though, we're bullish as we approach the all-time high again, and all the way to the $630-$650 range.
