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Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 17–21, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📉 Anticipated Federal Reserve Rate Decision 📉: The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, March 19. Markets widely expect the Fed to maintain the current rates between 4.25% and 4.5%, following favorable inflation data. Investors will closely analyze the Fed's quarterly economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for insights into future monetary policy. 🇨🇳📈 China's Economic Stimulus Measures 📈: China has announced plans to implement measures aimed at reviving domestic consumption. This initiative is expected to bolster global markets, including the U.S., as increased Chinese consumption can lead to higher demand for international goods and services. ​ 🇯🇵🏦 Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Decision 🏦: The Bank of Japan is set to announce its interest rate decision on March 20. While specific expectations are not detailed, any changes or guidance provided could have implications for global financial markets, including currency and equity markets. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Monday, March 17: 🛒 Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET) 🛒:This report measures the total receipts of retail stores, providing insight into consumer spending trends. Forecast: +0.2% month-over-month​ Previous: +0.3% month-over-month​ 📅 Wednesday, March 19: 🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏠:This data indicates the annualized number of previously constructed homes sold during the previous month, reflecting housing market conditions. Forecast: 5.50 million annualized units​ Previous: 5.47 million annualized units​ 📅 Thursday, March 20: 🏦 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (2:00 PM ET) 🏦:The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its decision on short-term interest rates, influencing borrowing costs and economic activity. Forecast: No change, maintaining rates at 4.25%–4.50% Previous: 4.25%–4.50% ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY Prediction.Here's my SPY breakdown using top-down charting from the 1Hr and 15min timeframes. On the 1Hr TF, there was a lower low (LL) created last Thursday around ($549.62). For the downtrend to continue, price needs to stay below ($564.02) to form a lower high (LH) and possibly go back to test that Thursday low. Now switching to the 15min TF, you can see that the ($562 - $564) level was tested four times, and each time price rejected and pushed lower. But remember what happened Friday around 2 PM — price spiked to ($563.83), then sellers stepped in and brought it right back down. So for Monday, if SPY gaps up over ($564), I’m looking to take calls for a push toward ($570 - $573) (just like the moves we saw on October 31 and November 5). But I would only scalp that move — personally, I wouldn’t be fully bullish unless SPY turns ($568 - $570) into support like it did back in November. If SPY does not gap up ($564), then I expect more downside pressure with a possible re-test of that ($549.62) low. This is just my opinion, make sure to chart it out yourself.
AMEX:SPY
by J-Weaver01
2
SPY at Key Inflection Point! Big Move Soon? Mar17 Week 🔥Hey traders! Quick update on SPY's 4-hour chart setup. 📈 Technical Analysis (TA): * SPY broke above the descending trendline signaling possible bullish momentum. * Immediate resistance overhead between $562–$582, which is critical for confirming a bullish trend reversal. * Recent Break of Structure (BOS) established a clear support zone around $545-$550, an essential zone for potential reversals. * Higher resistance around $607–$610 could come into play if bullish momentum builds. 📊 GEX & Options Insights: * Highest negative NET GEX at $550, marking a critical PUT support level; key to watch if prices dip. * Strong CALL resistance at $582, significant gamma wall here. Breakout could accelerate price upwards quickly. * IV Rank is moderate at 42.8%, creating opportunities for both debit and credit options strategies. * High PUT ratio (92.9%) indicates heavy bearish sentiment in options positioning—stay cautious. 💡 Trade Recommendations: * Bullish Play: Confirmed break above $582 could trigger a bullish push toward the $607–$610 range. Stops tight under $570. * Bearish Play: Watch for a clear rejection at $582; puts could target $550 support, potentially even down toward $545. * Neutral strategies: Consider selling premium via Iron Condors or credit spreads between the clear boundaries ($550–$582). 🛑 Risk Management: Maintain disciplined trades with clear risk control due to volatility at key levels. Stay focused and good luck! Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BullBearInsights
QQQ at Crossroads! Big Move Incoming? Mar17 WeekQuick update on QQQ with a look at the 4-hour chart. 📈 Technical Analysis (TA): * QQQ is at a critical resistance zone around $479-$480—key decision level here. * Recent Change of Character (CHoCh) suggests bulls might take control if price breaks higher. * Strong support formed at a Break of Structure (BOS) around $466; keep this level on radar if price pulls back. * Watch closely the next resistance zones around $495 and a major overhead barrier at $502. 📊 GEX & Options Insights: * High negative NET GEX at $466 marks critical PUT support—a strong floor area. * CALL resistance appears clearly around $495-$510, with a significant gamma wall forming. * IV Rank moderate at 42.8%, indicating reasonable premium—suitable for spreads or moderate premium selling strategies. * PUT sentiment at 32.5% signals bearish bias, keeping bulls cautious. 💡 Trade Recommendations: * Bullish Play: Wait for a confirmed breakout above $480 for a bullish run to $495 initially, and possibly higher towards $502. Set stops tight below $475. * Bearish Play: Look for a clear rejection at $480 to enter puts targeting the support at $466. * Neutral traders might explore credit spreads or Iron Condors between clear zones ($466–$495). 🛑 Risk Management: Ensure disciplined stop-loss placement, especially in this range-bound scenario. Stay safe and trade wisely! Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
$QQQ WARNING! April Fool's Market a Joke this year at SUB $400Is this happening? I'm going to have to bet my money on yes. I have been doing this for a long time. Pattern Chart Trading . This has a high probability of happening imo. Is it absolute? Of course not. Is it better to be prepared? Absolutely. Now for the technicals of it.. I'm trying to do better with this... If we take a bearish perspective on the fib from the previous high in December , and the most previous lower low mid January , we have ourselves at the 1.61 Golden Pocket below. I have a Bullish perspective if we hold here and move above the 1.00 Fib Level, mid January Lows at $499.70 . Last defense would be a 50% retracement to the .786 FIB at the $508 area. Currently, I expect a rally to the 50 day SMA for a retest, then a SLAM to $380s in April . This is the possibility. Take it with a Grain of Salt. The possibility is there. I have one Bullish outlook.. I will post after this...
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by TazmanianTrader
IwmInteresting spot here near 200.00 Honesty it's the most oversold Stock/Index on my watchlist. Actually price has been trading inside this channel here After finishing up a H&S pattern Over the next 2weeks I think we can see a move back to 214 channel top and H&S neckline I don't think that move will be straight V shape either, maybe a pop to 206 or 207 gap close then a pullback ; if that pullback at holds 199 support then we could see 214, if we break below 198 then the move up is done and we keep sliding The bigger picture is this, IWM is headed back to trendline support of 15yr channel around 175-180
AMEX:IWM
by ContraryTrader
1
SPY Market Outlook - Week and Month ahead (Mar - Apr 2025)With SPY rejecting off the July ’24 and August ’24 resistance zone, combined with low volume into the close, we need to assess the technical setup, economic landscape, market psychology, and potential institutional strategies to predict where SPY may move next. ⸻ 1️⃣ Technical Analysis – Recent Price Action & Key Levels 📌 Friday’s Price Action & Rejection at Resistance • SPY rallied throughout the day but stalled at a key historical resistance (~563-564). • The last 10 minutes of trading saw a rejection off resistance, signaling institutional selling or profit-taking at that level. • Low volume into the close suggests a lack of aggressive buyers at these elevated levels. 📈 Key Resistance Levels (Upside Risks) • 563.91 - 565.02 → Major resistance from past highs. • 568 - 570 → Psychological level; breaking above this could trigger an upside squeeze. 📉 Key Support Levels (Downside Risks) • 553.89 (S1 Pivot) → First support level. • 550 - 548 → Stronger support, where buyers might step in. • 540-535 → If macro conditions weaken, this could be tested. 🔹 Bias for next week: Short-term caution. A rejection off a previous resistance with low volume suggests a possible pullback before another attempt higher. ⸻ 2️⃣ Economic & Fiscal Factors Influencing SPY 🏦 Federal Reserve & Interest Rates • March 2025 FOMC Meeting: The Fed’s next decision on interest rates will dictate short-term direction. • Current market expectation: Fed holds rates steady, but any hawkish stance (no rate cuts) could push SPY down. • Rate cut speculation: If economic data weakens, the Fed may pivot towards rate cuts, fueling another SPY rally. 🛒 Inflation Data & Consumer Spending • CPI/PCE Inflation Reports: If inflation data is hotter than expected, SPY could sell off on rate hike fears. • Retail Sales Data: A slowdown in consumer spending would indicate weakening economic strength. 📉 Fiscal & Geopolitical Concerns • U.S. Debt & Fiscal Policy: • Treasury issuing more bonds? Yields could rise, causing stocks to fall. • Government spending cuts? Negative for growth stocks. • Global Risks (China Slowdown, Middle East Tensions): • Any geopolitical escalation could cause a flight to safety (bonds, gold, USD), hurting SPY. 🔹 Bias for next month: If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, SPY could see a deeper pullback toward 540-550. However, if inflation cools and rate cuts are expected, SPY could attempt another breakout. ⸻ 3️⃣ Market Psychology & Institutional Strategies 🎰 The “Casino” Effect: Retail Traders vs. Smart Money How Market Makers & Algorithms Trap Retail Traders The stock market operates like a casino, using psychological tactics to keep traders engaged and induce poor decision-making: • “Near Miss” Effect: Just like slot machines keep gamblers playing by showing near-wins, market makers drive SPY close to resistance before a rejection, making traders believe a breakout is coming. • “Dopamine Trading” & FOMO: Market structure induces FOMO, encouraging retail traders to buy at the worst times (tops). • “Liquidity Hunts”: Institutions push prices just above resistance to trigger retail stop-losses before reversing. 🔹 Current Setup Psychology: • Retail Bulls feel confident after last week’s rally, believing a breakout is imminent. • Smart Money is likely selling into strength, creating a liquidity trap. • If volume stays low, it indicates institutions are not supporting higher prices. 📉 Where Institutions Could Take SPY Next 1️⃣ Shakeout Before a Move Higher (Most Likely) • SPY pulls back to 550-553 early next week to trap weak-handed longs, then reverses higher. 2️⃣ True Reversal (Less Likely Unless Macro Shifts Bearish) • Failure at 550 → Drop to 535-540. 3️⃣ Parabolic Breakout (Only If Fed Signals Rate Cuts Soon) • If Fed hints at rate cuts, SPY breaks 565 and runs toward 570+. ⸻ 4️⃣ Trading Plan for the Week & Month 🎯 Short-Term (Next 1-2 Weeks) 🔻 Bearish Bias Until SPY Proves Strength Above 565 • Trade Idea: • Sell SPY 565 Calls & Buy SPY 555 Puts (Credit Spread) • Target: 550-553 • Stop-loss: If SPY holds 565 with strong volume. 📉 Aggressive Short Play (Only if SPY loses 550) • Buy SPY 545 Puts, target 540. 📈 Medium-Term (Next 3-4 Weeks) • Bullish Reversal Levels: • If SPY holds 550 & reclaims 560 → Go Long. • Buy SPY 560 Calls, Target 570. ⚠️ Risk Management & Key Triggers • Watch CPI & FOMC Meeting: Macro news will determine if SPY sells off further or breaks resistance. • Volume Confirmation: If low volume continues, expect more chop & fakeouts. • Biggest Bullish Catalyst: Fed signaling rate cuts earlier than expected. ⸻ 📌 Final Summary – What to Expect for SPY? 1️⃣ Short-Term Pullback Likely (550-553), Then a Decision Point. 2️⃣ SPY Must Break 565 With Volume for Bulls to Win. 3️⃣ Watch Institutional Behavior – Smart Money Might Be Distributing. 4️⃣ Key Catalysts: CPI, FOMC, & Market Psychology Will Dictate Direction.
AMEX:SPY
by ReadyFor401k
1
Market Update - 3/16/2025Going through my trading stats in a bit more detail. Strong rebound in Friday, but we are still well in a correction, I will need much more proof to get aggressive, and here are a few reasons why. 1) in general there are not that many good setups 2) most bases are quite wide and loose 3) most previous leading stocks are well off their highs and what is working recently are miners, energy, healthcare names, which typically work in defensive / recessionary periods. as long as growth and tech names are not leading, it's not worth getting aggressive Besides, most setups that look solid are not in the US, but in China. Things like NASDAQ:TIGR , NASDAQ:YY , NYSE:DAO , NASDAQ:EH are the ones I'm watching closely. Already in NASDAQ:LX and $ATAT. All small positions so I want to either scale up or down depending how the next days evolve. In general still cautious, at 42% invested, will stay below 50%, my average losses are at 0.15% of my account and will keep it that way until we get more traction.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BenedekBokor
SPY: Update for Week of March 17Hey everyone, A bit of a longer idea, but I had lots to talk about about, I guess. Here is the summary information for next week: Summary Most likely high target 568.21 (probability assigned 18%) Most likely bear target 552.74 (probability assigned 64%) Retracement target 557 (probability 71%) Expected return -0.11% (very conservative this week interestingly enough). EMA 200 average target 533 range Weekly Levels Weekly Forecast Thanks for watching and reading and as always safe trades! 🚀And not advice!🚫
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
57
SPY to Crash to $350s by MayPeople fail to realize how dramatic market crashes can be. Historically bear markets have seen 30%+ declines from peak. We are going to see a 40%-50% decline from peak down to 350s by May. With 1 or 2 exceptions, rate cutting cycles have always coincided with bear markets, which are 30%+ declines from peak in the S&P 500. We have the largest spike in unemployment since covid, largest drop off in real estate sales, massive AI bubble in tech stocks, Q1 GDP falling off a cliff to -2.8%, the list goes on and on.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ARX713
2
$SMH/$NAS100 is clearly in a bearish patternThe semiconductor sector was the poster child of the 2023 & 2024 bull market. The cap weighted index is a momentum play with heavy weights like NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:AVGO outperforming and hence the ETF gives more than 100% return in 2 years. NASDAQ100 index is also cap weighted and momentum oriented. But the index provides diversification to a certain extent. NASDAQ:SMH hit an ATH in June 2024. In this chart we are plotting the ratio of NASDAQ:SMH vs $NAS100. The ratio peaked in June 2024. The ratio is making new lower lows and lower highs. If we plot the inverse head and shoulder, we see that the ratio can probably hit the neckline which lies at 0.01. This will indicate a 10% more downside in NASDAQ:SMH compared to $NAS100. Currently NASDAQ:SMH is at 226 $. This will indicate a low of 200 $ and then it might indicate a bounce back from those levels. Consolidation of NASDAQ:SMH around 220 $ - 200 $.
NASDAQ:SMH
by RabishankarBiswal