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The pivot circa: SPY $551.50 WAS FREE - NO STRINGS ATTACHED - MARKET = SUPER OVERSOLD PRIMED FOR A MASSIVE SHORT SQUEEZE THE TRIGGER? LIQUIDITY FROM TARIFFS - THAT IS NEXT TRUMP PLANNED IT. AND HERE IT WILL COME On the technical side - yes, everyone sees this as voodoo magic - but it is a property of dynamic systems. What do you mean? Ahhhhh, measure and measure well from the previous move... it is a secret!!! Don't underestimate the smartest president we have ever had... It takes finance-trained people to forecast properly... Wharton is a great school (Trump) - hehehe, not the school of hard knocks (or maybe rocks). The move fits, time range, volume and positioning. Be observant ... we need you wealthy. Some clues just because I am nice: "Moniac Model of the economy - it is in new Zealand. that will help you visualize. The guy was Phillips". They are all short - when you buy now you buy IOUs What does it mean? hahaha, well a line of buyers that must buy ..... Save this post - and reference it later. The pivot circa: SPY $551.50 Now, this is a nice post, what do you say? Remember this post was made 31 minutes ago, that was 1.09 PM on Tuesday March 11, 2025 The concept of the Random Walk is a fallacy promoted by water cooler talkers - and you know there are so many of these troglodytes. This one is the biggest water cooler talker of all times (my opinion). I call this practice bullshiting Richard D. Wolff A prominent contemporary Marxian economist, Wolff is known for his critique of capitalism and advocacy for worker cooperatives. He is the founder of Democracy at Work and author of Understanding Socialism One more edition to this post: The relationship between liquidity, interest rates, and tariffs. I wanted you to visualize the Moniac (representation of the economy developed by Phillips the famed economist, that uses water to represent capital flows, you should really learn this model it will help you tremendously in the future). Thinks of rates ruled by liquidity, The FED sells T Bills to get cash, it promised to pay interest and return the money latter. Well the Tariffs come in to banks galore, and then the FED has excess liquidity and has to sell less T-Bills so the Fed lowers the rate it will pay and that is that, so simple, and so COMMON SENSE, and yet, the crowd can't conceptualize it. No matter, the Tariffs will have this effect and rates likely will be required to come down. See now how tariffs are much better than income tax revenue, and all other taxes in reality? According to my estimations, if we go to a tariffs based tax revenue collection, the economy in the USA stands to gain 4% points just because of this switch. Wink wink, get smarter ....
AMEX:SPYLong
by imcnf5c4ff
1
S&P 500 is gearing up for a drop to $348.11 or even $218.26.SP:SPX AMEX:SPY are gearing up for a potential crash. Markets and indices seem aligned for a downturn. What will trigger it? Hard to say, but watching the stock and crypto markets, it certainly looks that way. My expectations for SPX / SPY: ➖ Fibonacci 161.80% targets have been reached. ➖ Key downside levels: $348.11 and $218.26. TVC:DXY The dollar index is leaning towards growth for now. I think it might follow this scenario. Let’s keep an eye on how things develop.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SergioRichi
4
Europe’s defence awakeningThe race to bolster European defence capabilities is well underway. Since the invasion of Ukraine, European leaders have intensified calls for increased defence spending. The continent, long reliant on US security guarantees, is now facing a critical inflection point. Recent moves by the US administration to engage with Russia without consulting its European allies or Ukraine have underscored the urgent need for Europe to take charge of its own defence. This geopolitical reality has forced European leaders to acknowledge that relying on US support is no longer a guaranteed strategy, accelerating discussions on independent military capabilities and funding mechanisms. Why is European defence spending rising? For decades, the US has outspent Europe on defence, contributing more than two-thirds of NATO’s1 overall budget. However, NATO estimates that in 2024, 23 out of 32 members met the 2% GDP2 defence spending target, compared to just seven members in 2022 and three in 20143. More ambitious goals are being discussed. Poland is leading the way with a 4.12% of GDP2 defence budget, while discussions at NATO suggest some countries may need to increase spending to 3% or higher1. Adding another layer of complexity is the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative, which is beginning to reshape US defence priorities. The shift from cost-plus to fixed-price contracts under DOGE is putting financial pressure on defence companies most exposed to the US, which may see constraints on long-term spending commitments. This could have two contrasting effects: while it may limit US capability to fund European defence through NATO, it could also drive European nations to increase domestic procurement and reduce dependency on US defence systems. Additionally, emerging security threats, including cyber warfare, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven military technology, and the growing presence of authoritarian regimes, have reinforced the need for increased defence investments. Europe’s reliance on outdated Cold War-era military equipment is another critical factor, pushing leaders to modernise their arsenals. How will Europe fund its defence expansion? Ramping up defence spending is a monumental task, especially given high sovereign debt levels across Europe. Yet, leaders are exploring creative solutions to secure the necessary funding. One approach is to reallocate existing European Union (EU) budgets, with discussions centring on repurposing unspent Cohesion Funds and Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) loans. However, legal restrictions within EU treaties may limit their direct application to military expenditures. Another potential route is the issuance of European Defence Bonds, mirroring the successful NextGenerationEU pandemic recovery fund. By pooling resources at the EU level, this could offer a coordinated and cost-effective funding mechanism. At the same time, private investment and public-private partnerships are gaining traction. Defence contractors and institutional investors are increasingly seen as strategic partners in financing large-scale projects, particularly in weapons systems, cyber defence, and artificial intelligence. Governments may leverage these collaborations to accelerate procurement and technological advancements. Despite these options, one thing is clear—Europe must find a sustainable funding model to support its defence ambitions without derailing economic stability. Whether through EU-level financing, national budget reallocations, or private-sector involvement, securing long-term defence investment will be paramount in ensuring Europe’s security and strategic autonomy. Impact on defence stocks: can the strong run continue? European defence stocks have had a strong run since 2022, driven by surging order books, government contracts, and the realisation that military spending is no longer optional. Over the past year, Europe defence stocks rose 40.8%, outpacing broader European equities (+11.4%)4 . Defence stocks trade at a historical P/E5 ratio of ~14x, slightly above the long-term average, though still below peak multiples6 There are three key trends fuelling defence stock momentum: Backlogs at record highs: European defence contractors are sitting on unprecedented order books, with consensus forecasting 2024-29 CAGRs7 of ~11% for sales and ~16% for both adjusted EBIT8 and adjusted EPS9. These growth rates compare to just 8%, 11% and 12%, respectively, for the 2019-24 period10. Government commitments: with long-term contracts locked in and additional spending likely, demand visibility remains strong. EU’s push for strategic autonomy: The European Commission has proposed a European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS), aimed at spending at least 50% of procurement budgets within the EU by 2030 and 60% by 203511. Conclusion: a new era for European defence The European defence sector is entering a new era of investment and strategic autonomy. With rising geopolitical risks and uncertainty over US support, European nations are taking proactive steps to build a more robust and self-sufficient military ecosystem. While funding challenges persist, the momentum behind higher budgets, technological investments, and NATO commitments makes this shift not just necessary, but inevitable. With the EU backing structural shifts in procurement, defence stocks remain well-positioned, particularly those with exposure to land (for example, ammunition, vehicles) and air (for example, air defence, missiles, drones) domains. 1NATO = The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (an intergovernmental transnational military alliance of 32 member states). 2GDP = gross domestic product. 3NATO 2023 Vilnius Summit Declaration. 4Bloomberg, Europe defence stocks are represented by the MSCI Europe Aerospace & Defence Index and European Equities represented by MSCI Europe Index. 5P/E = price-to-earnings. 6Bloomberg as of 31 January 2025. 7CAGR = compound annual growth rate. 8EBIT = earnings before interest and taxes. 9EPS = earnings per share. 10Company data, Visible Alpha Consensus, WisdomTree as of 31 January 2025. 11European Commission: Joint communication to the European Parliament, the Council as of August 2024. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees, or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
CBOE:EUAD
by aneekaguptaWTE
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 11, 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above. Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning. Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions. Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change. If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 10 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support! Need any other charts daily, comment on this.
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
1
SPY: Deep Pullback or the Opportunity of the Year?The market has spoken, and SPY has taken a deeper dive, breaking key levels and raising the big question: Will it keep dropping, or are we looking at the best opportunity of 2025? Seasoned traders know that sharp declines aren’t just moments of panic—they are moments of opportunity. With SPY reaching 558, 545, and even 525, this could be the perfect setup for a strategic, tiered entry ahead of a potential rebound. Key Recovery Levels: 🔹 570: First profit target, capturing an initial bounce. 🔹 590: A second take-profit zone if the momentum continues upward. 🔹 607: If recovery gains traction, this could be the level where many look to lock in gains. The market may continue to dip, but every drop presents a potential golden opportunity. What looks risky today could turn into the trade of the year tomorrow. As always, risk management and disciplined execution are key. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risks, and each investor should conduct their own analysis and manage risk responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by Robert_V12
$MAGS Monthly Chart Signals Caution: What’s Next for the MagnifiMacro Outlook Based on the Monthly Chart ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️ The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF CBOE:MAGS has had an incredible run, but the monthly chart is sending some cautionary signals. December closed with a massive sell-off wick, followed by a weak January close. This kind of price action suggests potential exhaustion in the near term. The last time we saw a similar setup was in July, when a sharp sell-off wick led to a 23% drop before the market resumed its upward trend. Does this mean CBOE:MAGS has to plummet again? Not necessarily, but with market uncertainty around the tariff war and the monthly chart showing signs of stagnation, a steeper retrace could be on the horizon before any further upside. It’s possible we’re seeing a temporary top for now. Short-Term Outlook: As long as price holds above the yearly open, I expect a retest of the $57 resistance level. However, for the macro trend to turn bullish again, we’d need to see strong momentum and a solid close above $57 by flipping this level from resistance to support. Until then, the current price action feels more like a dead cat bounce than a sustainable recovery. Expecting volatility in the near term.
CBOE:MAGS
by ZelfTrade
$DIA - Trading Levels for March 11 2025 So we are AT the 200DMA, and under it. So if we continue this momentum down and it becomes resistance than the next support is at 400. Ok with that out of the way, today’s trading range is between 409 and 431 based on Fridays contract. That is UNDER the weekly trading range with that low of 418 We still have some upward momentum on the 200DMA which makes me think we stay flat-ish (as flat as you can with volatility so high) You typically don’t want to go short at an upward facing moving average.
AMEX:DIA
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-11-25: BreakAway PatternToday's Breakaway pattern offers a fairly strong potential the SPY/QQQ will attempt to find support today. I know I've been telling everyone the markets should find support and are seeking support for the past 3+ trading days. But, the SPY has recently crossed the 50% Fibonacci pullback level and the QQQ has recently crossed the 61.8% pullback level. These levels will act as moderate support. So, I'm urging traders to patiently wait out the early morning volatility. Today could be incredibly volatile while the markets attempt to hammer out critical support. BTCUSD has moved to consolidation lows and will likely attempt a moderate rally up to consolidation highs. This is another reason I believe the SPY/QQQ are attempting to base/bottom near current lows. Gold and silver have recovered from recent lows very aggressively and are moving into a CRUSH pattern. I believe that the CRUSH pattern will resolve to the upside for metals. At this point, I believe the markets are relatively well exhausted to the downside. But, we must let price be the ultimate dictator of trending and opportunity. Thus, it is essential to let the markets FLUSH OUT this potential base/bottom in early trading today before getting aggressive with any trades. Ultimately, we need to see the markets identify support in this downtrend. If we don't find any support before the end of this week, then we are going to see a very large downward price move that will invalidate many of my expectations, potentially leading to a very large breakdown in US/global markets. Buckle up. The markets are nearing the DO or DIE phase due to how these Excess Phase Peak patterns are playing out. I see support setting up and a base/bottom building. If I'm wrong, we'll see a continued downward price trend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
Qqq So .. Keep things simple.. Qqq has support at 468-470.. below that support at 450 comes... Qqq 1st resistance is at 477, over 477 and 483 comes. .. The technicals say we should bounce up to 483-485 if Jolts come in decent today.. The bad news is Until post Opex we are in a Bearish seasonality.. The structure on one of the biggest sectors XLC (Meta,NFLX) tells me that the selling isn't done and we could see 450 by end of April.. Overall Qqq Top was in like posted back in Dec.. Here's Qqq weekly chart log scale.. Notice it only broke this once in 16yrs and that was because of the stimulus liquidity.. Now zoom in here and notice the 2 red arrows the first Arrow was back in July when QQQ tagged that weekly resistance, price corrected but they bought it up for the sake of distribution.. the evidence of that distribution is on your RSI weekly chart. Look at your RSI and notice How it's has diverged as price went higher also notice How NVDA and MSFT pretty much traded sideways since last July. Lastly JPM pretty much said that they liquidated most of their tech longs last summer. Notice the blue line ? That was our uptrend from 2022 lows, that uptrend combined with the weekly channel has made a rising wedge. We broke that rising wedge last week but I think in April we will rally back up to retest it around 510-515 before a sell in May event that takes us to the bottom of this channel Around 400.. The bigger picture is this, the channel of 16yrs support has never been broken so if you do get that 400 price this summer it will likely be a buying event like what happened at 2022 lows. I don't think Qqq makes a new high until 400 is tested . But to focus on today's trade, wait until Jolts numbers are released, if we push over 477 then they will melt this back up to 483.. if we flush then don't short this until you see 467 cause it could be a trap.. below 468 and you short this to 462 then 450.. The WEEKLY 50 SMA is at 485 so it will take CPI to get over that Had to post this for my friends since X is down 😂 .. I'll update here
NASDAQ:QQQ
by ContraryTrader
End of hibernation for the bears?AMEX:SPY is at a pivotal point and could potentially be at the top of the bullish cycle that began in October 2022. If this prediction proves accurate, I think we could see a maximum low of $510 for this year. There are a couple of caveats, including one that will be a clear indicator of whether or not this wave count is accurate, which I will explain later. On the 1000R chart ($10), this uptrend was confirmed by Supertrend and volume activity. Volume drastically increased at the start of Wave (3) in March 2023 and did not taper off until the start of Wave (4) in July 2024. This was the strongest impulse in the trend, which is common for Wave 3. You can also see the ADX line of the DMI indicator (white line) was at its highest level during that period. Assuming Wave (5) is already complete, we can observe that the volume in Wave (3) was considerably less than Wave (5). Other observations supporting this wave count: - Wave (4) retracing into the territory of Wave 4 of (3) - Alternation in corrective patterns between Wave (2) and Wave (4); flat in (2) and straight down in (4) - Wave (5) extending to nearly 1.618 of (1) While the points I’ve made so far suggest that the market may be on the verge of a crash, the image gets more complicated when you take a closer look on the 250R chart ($2.50). I’ll start with what I’m counting as Wave 4 of (5). The price ended at ATH in Wave 3 and then corrected in an unmistakable five wave descending wedge pattern. This can only be a fourth wave of a larger impulse, so we can conclude with a fair amount of confidence that the wave that follows will be the last. Here is where things get interesting. The price moved from $575 on January 13th to a slightly higher ATH of $609.24 on January 24th before being rejected again. This uptrend unfolded in a typical bullish pattern and left a notable gap at $584, which is the only gap still left unfilled. The trend change is confirmed on the moving averages. Notice the serious drop in volume that followed as well. Despite the shift in volume, there are two issues I have with this wave count that are preventing me from calling this a confirmed correction: 1. Wave 5 of (5) was awfully short and only extended roughly $2 above the end of Wave 3 of (5). This does not break any rules, but it is unusual. 2. What I have labelled as Wave B of Wave (1) or (A) of the correction made a new ATH on Friday February 14th, which should invalidate this wave count since the end of Wave 5 of (5) should be the peak. The second point is why some may think that we are about to resume the larger bull trend, however there is a possibility that they are mistaken based off the PA on the actual index SP:SPX and futures CME_MINI:ES1! . On the SP:SPX chart, we can see that the index did not break the ATH at $6128.18 set on January 25th, and instead rejected at $6,127.24. CME_MINI:ES1! also failed to notch a new ATH on Friday and I have observed the price action create a nearly perfect bearish butterfly pattern. Also notice how the volume is significantly lower than in the uptrend that began on January 31st. So the question remains: are we at a tipping point or will the bulls regain control? Right now it’s unclear, but I will keep my bearish sentiment until SP:SPX makes a new ATH, which will invalidate this theory. Since only the ETF that tracks it only made a slightly higher high on low volume, I’m skeptical of the PA on AMEX:SPY at the moment. This is why I entered puts on Friday. If the trade plays out, I expect the price to quickly move to fill the gap at $584, which is still conveniently located at what I cam considering the 1.236 extension of Wave A, which is a common target extension in flat corrections. I will keep my puts open until this idea is invalidated, as the Wave C drop will likely be caused by a news event that could come at any time. Let me know if you guys are seeing the same thing or something different. Good luck to all!
AMEX:SPYShort
by ap769
3
SPY Possible next movesOrange Line - Trendline since November 2024 Blue Line - Trendline from 2020 SMA - Red (200) as a moving floor SMA - Yellow (100) as a moving floor 1st Strong Floor - Resistance range 562 - 555 2nd Strong Floor - Resistance range 518 - 511 Downtrend Channel between blue lines If the downtrend channel is broken with strength and volume, we could experience a retracement to the 584 - 595 range and then wait. However, if it is not broken and the strong downtrend continues, breaking the first floor range (wait for candlestick confirmation with bearish volume) and/or experiencing a false breakout (breakout without volume to the upside), we could expect a drop to the second floor range. It is important to wait for confirmations and execute the corresponding trades accordingly. -------------
AMEX:SPY
by dondanicorleoni
$SPY #RisingWedge #BreakDOWN #ReTest #RecessionI highlighted the potential topping formation that could for especially if we see a rejection around 598-601 on XMas EVE via #XMasAlert. This morning I am seeing signs of momentum wearing off PLUS what looks like a #BreakDOWN-ReTEST of a rising wedge look to the AMEX:SPY , check my TSLA to 420.69 Chart for conceptualization of this break out BELOW; In my post 2 days ago () I mentioned Strikes TBD. Well here are my favorites; SPY 560P 3.21 (Bigger Risk Reward) SPY 600P 3.21 (Essentially ATM Short w some Leverage) -Prophecies PS; 1) "I LOVE GOLD" - Fat BastarD 2) DONT OVER LOOK GOLD SAFETY HAVEN VIA CRYPTOCAP:BTC Headwinds? 3) And Don't Overlook NASDAQ:TSLA momentum... TO UPSIDE STILL (500Cs will be a play at somepoint this year #StayTuned)
AMEX:SPYShort
by Prophecies_R_Us
3