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VIX is the clear winner (UVIX)VIX made a nice spike over the weekend and we can see that volatility is back on the table with this administration. Do yourself a favor and look at this baby! Literally the easiest trade you will ever make. Follow SMA 10 on the 30min chart. Don't buy until SMA 50 is positive and close to the close price!!!!! Looking to share the love and even if you lost on other trades, this is looks real sweat. Trade your rice and beans for a nice Argentinian steak with chimichuri! Always do your own due diligence and best of luck!
CBOE:UVIXLong
by antonini2002
Need a Vacation with OOTO?This one just fired and vacation stocks likely don't care about semi-conductors. Who knows, maybe they even benefit from cheaper AI on a laptop computer! This bull flag if it breaks out has a 7% profit target based on Fib Extension, with the algo backtest saying 5% take-profit and a 3.5% stop loss. If it hits 5%, I will go ahead and protect by selling half and then set trailer for 1.75% on remainder, with the intention of selling on the way up to 7%! But for now, I will just be happy if momentum continues to the upside! The King Trading Momentum Strategy combines the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 EMA, RSI strength, favorable momentum as measured by ADX plus evaluating recent volume changes and even something that measures breakout momentum called Beta for this one! OOTO and over 100 equities are built into this script with optimal backtest take profits and stop losses and can be toggled on by simply checking a box (default they are turned off).
AMEX:OOTOLong
by KingTrading999
Opening (IRA): XBI January 17th 92 Covered Call... for a 90.47 debit. Comments: IVR/IV isn't fantastic here at 11.1/26.3%, but there is some IV skew to take advantage of on the call side -- 31.34% at the 92 call relative to 26.62% at the 92 put. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put to take advantage of the IV skew and the built-in defense of the short call. From a charting standpoint, the break even sets up nicely with the "RFK, Jr. low" in November. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 90.47 Max Profit: 1.53 ROC at Max: 1.69% 50% Max: .77 ROC at 50% Max: .85
AMEX:XBILong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TMF Feb 28th 35 Covered Call... for a 33.98 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV at 40.7/44.2, which is no surprise, since this is a bullish 3 x leveraged 20 year paper exchange-traded fund. It does have a dividend that pays out quarterly in March, June, September, and December (annualized yield of 4.71%). Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Using the February 28th expiry to keep things in that 45 DTE wheelhouse and will look to add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 33.98/share Max Profit: 1.02 ROC at Max: 3.00% 50% Max: .51 ROC at 50% Max: 1.50% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in-profit short call out to reduce my break even.
AMEX:TMFLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TLT April 17th 82 Covered Call... for an 80.60 debit. Comments: Laddering out at strikes better than what I currently have on (Feb 87's, March 84's). Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short calls. Plus, gotta be in shares to grab that divvy. Metrics: Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 80.60/shares Max Profit: 1.40 ROC at Max: 1.74% (excluding dividends) Ordinarily, I take profit at 50% max, but will wait until the dividend immediately preceding the monthly expiry drops before considering taking profit.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TLT February 21st 87 Covered Call... for a 85.97 debit. Comments: Going long at or near November lows, selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, with the built-in defense of the short call. I'm also looking to snag the January and potentially the February dividends here. This is a bit longer-dated than I ordinarily like to go, but I'm not doing a ton here besides waiting for January setups to come in/be managed. The obvious variant is to sell the standard -30 delta against: TLT Feb 21st 94 covered call, 89.72 debit, 4.28 max. 4.77% ROC at max where the short call is paying >1% of the strike price in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 85.97/share Max Profit (ex. dividends): 1.03 ROC at Max: 1.20% 50% Max: .52 ROC at 50% Max: .60% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max after at least the January dividend drops.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
SPY Will Collapse! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 607.93 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 596.16 Recommended Stop Loss - 614.42 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
2
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day TradersAll right guys this morning we opened with a gap down into a support gap that has the 30 minute two removing average and the one hour two and removing average and we just got above the 50 day moving average and the expected move on the day is between 595 and 601. I do believe it’s possible at this 50 day moving average holds us down, we do have a red signal line. It’s gonna be a wild week, so don’t feel like you need to rush into any trades, there’s lots of earnings and potentially a ton of volatility. Remember, we have an island gap underneath the tuna, removing average that still needs to be filled.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-27 : Consolidation PatternToday is an incredible day in my world. I have been warning of a major peak/top near Jan 20-23 for more than 45+ days. I have continued to warn traders of a major top/peak near the Inauguration and how I believe the markets would suddenly shift downward - targeting the Feb 9-11 Deep-V bottom. All of my predictive analysis is based on Gann, Tesla (Energy frequency, amplitude, vibration) and Fibonacci research. The reason I state this is because I want you to start thinking of price action in terms of energy expulsion and consolidation. Price is the ultimate indicator. My research proves we can attempt to predict future price moves (tops, bottoms, strength, weakness, and others) with a moderate degree of accuracy. As I continue to expand my research, tools, and resources, I will continue to improve my analysis/predictive capabilities. To me, this is very exciting. Today, I would expect the markets to consolidate in a fairly wide/volatile range. Gold and Silver will likely continue to try to recover/rally out of these flagging/pennant formations. Silver is set in more of a range-bound price channel, whereas Gold is clearly moving into a Pennant/Flag setup. BTCUSD appears to have broken the EPP Flag channel and should attempt to move down to GETTEX:92K over the next 5+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
As Goes January So Goes the YearI have written and talked about this statistical superstition born out of trading almanacs of the "January Effect" which proposes that the month of January's direction (a green bar or a red bar) will determine the final close of the year as a whole. I plugged the data into a spreadsheet this year mid-January to get the updated statistic and for the last 97 years this adage has held true 68% of the time. Like all statistics when studying markets "nothing is 100%" but it is safe to say "more often than not" this is true. The January 2025 Monthly open is -3.03% from the Friday close... SPY is going to open -2.19% as of writing this morning. We still have a whole week of trading days left in January to see how 2025 will MOST PROBABLY play out. There's a lot of "reasons" talk this morning about some Chinese AI being the culprit of the selloff. I never take heed of the need for the media to publish digestible stories to give such reasons: they are never tradable prior to the event they claim and each is a one-off so knowing the "reason" (if even true) is totally worthless for making money. The more logical answer according to price which is far more actionable to traders is the failed breakout last Friday. While SPY made a new All Time High the Weekly itself failed to close to confirm it. Not following through on such a move is a clear bearish signal going into a weekend. Now THAT is a much better "reason" to be focused on this week (and every time it happens in the future).
AMEX:SPY
by norok
3
SPY at a Key Inflection Point! Trading and Options Insights You Technical Analysis for SPY: * Current Price: $607.50 * Trend Overview: SPY is currently trading within an ascending wedge pattern. This structure is often indicative of a potential pullback, but a breakout above the upper trendline could signal bullish continuation. * Key Levels: * Resistance: $610.78 (Recent high and top of the wedge). * Support: $600 psychological support, $592 for stronger confluence with the lower trendline. * Momentum Indicators: * MACD: Showing slight bearish divergence; potential short-term consolidation or pullback. * Stochastic RSI: Oversold levels signal reduced momentum but indicate a potential reversal opportunity. Gamma Exposure (GEX) and Options Analysis: * Options Activity: * Call Walls: * $610 with 94.83% GEX Call Resistance (Key for upward breakout). * $615 and $620 as upper resistance layers for bullish scenarios. * Put Walls: * $600 with a 90.2% Put wall presence. * $590 as the strongest support with concentrated negative GEX. * IVR: 11.4, signaling lower implied volatility. * Options Strategy: * Bullish Setup: Look for an entry on a breakout above $610 with a target of $615-$620. Use $600 as a trailing stop. * Bearish Setup: Consider bearish spreads targeting $600 if price fails to sustain above $607. Actionable Trading Plan: 1. Scalping Outlook: * Monitor price action near $607-$608. Quick intraday bounces or rejections can offer opportunities. 2. Swing Outlook: * A sustained breakout above $610 can confirm bullish momentum; set targets at $615, then $620. * Below $600, prepare for a retest of the $590-$592 zone. Conclusion: SPY is showing signs of consolidation near its highs, and key levels like $610 and $600 will play a crucial role in determining its next direction. Options activity aligns with resistance near $610 and major support near $590. Stay vigilant with stops and manage risk appropriately. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
QQQ Testing Resistance Levels! Critical Zones to Watch for Jan23Technical Analysis (TA) for Trading: * Trend Overview: QQQ has shown steady upward momentum recently, forming a rising wedge pattern on the 1-hour chart. However, it's now testing the upper trendline, signaling potential consolidation or reversal. * Key Support and Resistance Levels: * Immediate Resistance: $533.82 (recent high). * Intermediate Support: $520 (aligned with the second PUT wall and historical support). * Major Support: $499.70 (a critical level and PUT support zone). * Indicators: * MACD: Displays a bearish crossover, suggesting a loss in bullish momentum. * Stochastic RSI: Dips into oversold territory, indicating a possible bounce if buyers step in. * Volume: Declining during the latest pullback, which may indicate a lack of strong selling pressure. GEX Analysis for Option Trading: * Call Gamma Walls: * Strong Resistance: $535 (60.76% GEX). * Next Resistance: $540 (47.79% GEX). * Put Walls: * Support Levels: $520 (-42.76% GEX) and $500 (-48.06% GEX). * Implied Volatility (IV): * IVR: 10.1. * IVx Average: 17.3. * Sentiment: * Puts account for 21.1%, while GEX sentiment remains slightly negative, hinting at cautious outlooks from options traders. Trade Setups: 1. Bullish Scenario: * Entry: Above $533.82. * Target: $540. * Stop-Loss: $530. 2. Bearish Scenario: * Entry: Below $528. * Target: $520. * Stop-Loss: $532. Actionable Insights: * Watch for a breakout above $533.82 with strong volume to confirm bullish continuation. * A break below $528 could signal a bearish pullback to test $520 support. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research before trading.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
The Splintering Market: Geopolitical Upheaval, Financial Innovation, and the Looming Food Crisis Abstract The global market is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by rapid geopolitical shifts, technological advancements, and the emergence of innovative financial tools. However, this transformation is not without its challenges. While sectors like artificial intelligence (AI) and electric vehicles (EVs) thrive, the food supply chain faces unprecedented stress, threatening to plunge the world into a crisis not seen since the Great Dust Bowl. This paper explores the concept of market splintering, the widening gap between social classes, and the compounding effects of weakened regulatory agencies on public health and safety. It also examines how these forces interact to reshape the global economy and society. Introduction: A Market and Society at a Crossroads The modern financial market and society are no longer cohesive entities. Instead, they are splintering into distinct sectors and classes, each responding differently to the pressures of geopolitics, technological innovation, and shifting consumer demands. This paper argues that the market is entering a new paradigm, one best described as a "horizontal hourglass," where extreme highs and lows coexist, flattening traditional indices like the S&P 500 into a thread of stagnation. Simultaneously, society is fracturing along class lines, with the looming food crisis threatening to exacerbate these divisions. The catalysts for this transformation are multifaceted. On one hand, geopolitical upheaval—exemplified by Donald Trump's recent tariffs on Colombia—disrupts global supply chains and traditional industries. On the other hand, financial innovation, such as Roundhill Investments' synthetic covered call ETFs, offers new opportunities for investors to adapt to this fractured landscape. However, the most pressing issue lies in the food supply chain, which is under immense stress due to climate change, weakened regulatory oversight, and geopolitical tensions. Together, these forces are reshaping the global economy and society in ways that demand a forward-looking approach to investment, governance, and public health. Chapter 1: The Horizontal Hourglass—A New Market Paradigm 1.1 The Traditional Market Model Historically, financial markets have been analyzed through the lens of cyclical patterns and historical data. The Great Depression, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic all followed a similar trajectory: a sharp downturn followed by a gradual recovery. However, this model fails to account for the complexities of the modern global economy, where technology, data, and geopolitics interact in unprecedented ways. 1.2 The Horizontal Hourglass Explained The "horizontal hourglass" is a metaphor for the current market dynamics. Instead of a vertical crash, where all sectors decline simultaneously, the market is bulging outward. High-growth sectors like technology, renewable energy, and electric vehicles (EVs) are reaching new highs, while traditional industries such as consumer goods and manufacturing face significant challenges. This divergence creates a flattened middle, where indices like the S&P 500 struggle to reflect the true state of the market. Top Half of the Hourglass: Dominated by innovation-driven sectors such as technology, EVs, and data analytics. Bottom Half of the Hourglass: Traditional industries, including daily consumer goods and manufacturing, are weighed down by geopolitical disruptions and supply chain vulnerabilities. Flattened Middle: The S&P 500 and other indices fail to capture the extremes, leading to a decade of stagnation. Chapter 2: The Rise of AI and EVs as Stabilizing Forces 2.1 Artificial Intelligence: The New Economic Engine AI is rapidly becoming the backbone of the global economy, driving innovation in sectors ranging from healthcare to finance. Companies leveraging AI are experiencing exponential growth, creating a stark contrast with traditional industries struggling to adapt. AI in Supply Chain Management: While AI is helping optimize supply chains in high-tech industries, it has yet to address the vulnerabilities in the food supply chain, which remains heavily reliant on manual labor and outdated infrastructure. AI and Class Disparity: The rise of AI is creating a new class of "data elites," further widening the gap between the wealthy and the working class. 2.2 Electric Vehicles: The Green Revolution The EV market is another stabilizing force in the fractured economy. Companies like Tesla and Rivian are driving growth in the top half of the hourglass, benefiting from government incentives and consumer demand for sustainable transportation. EVs and Resource Scarcity: The production of EVs relies on rare earth metals, which are subject to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. EVs and the Food Crisis: While EVs represent progress in reducing carbon emissions, their rise does little to address the immediate challenges of food production and distribution. Chapter 3: The Looming Food Crisis 3.1 A Fragile Supply Chain The global food supply chain is under immense stress, facing challenges not seen since the Great Dust Bowl. Climate change, geopolitical tensions, and labor shortages are converging to create a perfect storm. Climate Change: Extreme weather events are disrupting crop yields, leading to shortages and price spikes. Geopolitical Tensions: Tariffs, sanctions, and trade wars are exacerbating supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly in countries reliant on food imports. Labor Shortages: Deportation policies and restrictive immigration laws are reducing the availability of agricultural labor, particularly in regions like Southern California. 3.2 The Role of Weakened Regulatory Agencies The weakening of the CDC and FDA under the current administration is compounding the food crisis. Budget cuts and reduced oversight are creating a situation where food safety cannot be guaranteed, leading to widespread illness and loss of life. Foodborne Illnesses: Without proper oversight, contaminated food is more likely to enter the supply chain, causing outbreaks of diseases like E. coli and salmonella. Public Health Crisis: The lack of a coordinated response from the CDC and FDA is exacerbating the spread of illness, further straining healthcare systems. 3.3 The Impact on Society The food crisis is widening the gap between social classes, with the working class bearing the brunt of rising food prices and shortages. However, the upper class is not immune, as the lack of safe, reliable food sources affects everyone. Class Disparity: The wealthy can afford to import food or invest in private agriculture, while the working class struggles to access basic necessities. Social Unrest: The combination of food shortages and class disparity is likely to lead to increased social unrest, as seen in historical examples like the French Revolution. Chapter 4: The Intersection of Geopolitics, Food, and Financial Innovation 4.1 How Geopolitics Shapes the Food Crisis Geopolitical actions, such as Trump's tariffs on Colombia, are directly impacting the food supply chain. These policies disrupt trade, increase costs, and create uncertainty in global markets. 4.2 Financial Innovation as a Double-Edged Sword While financial tools like synthetic covered call ETFs offer opportunities for investors, they do little to address the immediate challenges of the food crisis. In fact, the focus on high-growth sectors like AI and EVs may divert resources away from critical areas like agriculture. Chapter 5: Strategies for Navigating the Splintered Market and Food Crisis 5.1 Building a Resilient Portfolio Investors must adopt a forward-looking approach to portfolio management, focusing on sectors and strategies that align with the new market paradigm. Core Holdings: ETFs focused on high-growth sectors like technology, renewable energy, and EVs. Speculative Plays: Synthetic covered call ETFs for high-yield income. Hedging Strategies: Investments in agriculture and food technology to mitigate risks associated with the food crisis. 5.2 Policy Recommendations Governments must take immediate action to address the food crisis and its underlying causes. Strengthening Regulatory Agencies: Restoring funding and authority to the CDC and FDA to ensure food safety and public health. Investing in Agriculture: Supporting sustainable farming practices and modernizing the food supply chain. Addressing Climate Change: Implementing policies to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate the impact of extreme weather events. Conclusion: A Fractured Future The global market and society are at a crossroads, shaped by the dual forces of technological innovation and systemic fragility. While AI and EVs offer hope for a brighter future, the looming food crisis threatens to plunge the world into chaos. Addressing these challenges requires a holistic approach that balances innovation with sustainability, ensuring that the benefits of progress are shared by all.
AMEX:SPY
by bcavin
$SPY All-Time Highs in FocusLooking ahead to this new trading week, I’m interested in seeing some shorts come in. We’ve returned to all-time highs , but the climb faced minimal resistance—aside from some signs of pushback on Friday. I’ll be very cautious about entering any long positions unless we see price action consolidating or trading closer to the 610-612 levels . Until then, I’ll remain hesitant and look for more clarity in the market’s direction. What’s your take on this setup? Drop your insights below!
AMEX:SPY
by ayushpanda_25
Inverse W Pattern on $QQQ: Potential Short Week?I’m keeping an eye on potential shorts as we head into the new trading week. A double top (inverse W) pattern seems to be forming here, but I’m waiting for confirmation. Specifically, I want to see a strong push below the red liquidity zone and some consolidation along the negative trendline before entering any short positions. On the flip side, if we see a confident rejection off the liquidity zone and price starts climbing toward the 534 level (white zone) , I’ll shift my focus to potential longs. Patience is key here—waiting for the market to show its hand before making any moves. Let me know your thoughts or if you’re spotting anything else in the charts!
NASDAQ:QQQ
by ayushpanda_25
VIX ready to explode higherLook at the last 2 Monthly candles. They are bullish candles and short term volatility would explode higher in Feb 2025. All the best. Marketpanda Disclaimer: The information provided is for general informational and educational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. None of the content shared should be relied upon as the sole basis for making investment decisions. Prior to making any financial or investment decisions, it is strongly recommended that you consult with a qualified financial advisor, accountant, or other professional who is familiar with your individual circumstances and risk tolerance. Any reliance you place on the information presented is strictly at your own risk, and we are not responsible for any losses, damages, or liabilities resulting from your investment or trading activities.
CBOE:VXXLong
by marketpanda123
Gold correction comingOur algo suggests a correction in physical gold prices. This might be a slow decline over a year or so. Target price is around 2300 i.e. 23 for AAAU. All the best. Marketpanda Disclaimer: The information provided is for general informational and educational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. None of the content shared should be relied upon as the sole basis for making investment decisions. Prior to making any financial or investment decisions, it is strongly recommended that you consult with a qualified financial advisor, accountant, or other professional who is familiar with your individual circumstances and risk tolerance. Any reliance you place on the information presented is strictly at your own risk, and we are not responsible for any losses, damages, or liabilities resulting from your investment or trading activities.
CBOE:AAAUShort
by marketpanda123