SPY Trading Plan 10/11Today we opened at 576.05. Today, ATR will be from 570.51 to 581.59. With a high base break out, need to stay bullish regardless of bias. The target for today will be 581. Trade is live.
ETF market
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-11 EOD UpdateOverall, this week has been rock solid. Even though the markets moved downward after the US Treasury auction early this week, the recovery and rally on Thursday and Friday were right on schedule.
Remember, I've highlighted my SPY Cycle Patterns more than three weeks into the future before the beginning of October. Mapping Daily price action like this is impossible for almost anyone.
The idea that I can identify price patterns weeks and months in advance and attempt to identify where and when trade opportunities may exist based on these advanced patterns is of real value.
I'm not waiting for price to move in some formation or setup, I know where price will likely base/bottom, or peak/top, and I know where opportunities should exist for profitable trades days or weeks in advance.
Now, you've seen how these patterns work and how I use other advanced TA techniques to identify real opportunities.
What are you waiting for...
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BTC The last short...October is historically a bearish month for the stock market, but a supposed bull period for crypto defined by many as Up-tober.
Because bitcoin is more so related to the global markets now than ever, and overly bullish sentiment may give the bears an opportunity to capitalize on liquidity, as well as potential uncertainty leading into the American elections.
This may be the last chance to buy Bitcoin before the real bull market begins. A drop below the previous low of GETTEX:49K would not only trigger massive fear, but likely many stops that can flush the price straight into the mid 40k zone of liquidity.
In other words, the gap at approx $50 on SBIT may be where liquidity sits, before entirely dumping back down to new lows.
This would be an overall good hedge to my portfolio this month.
Opening (IRA): SPY Oct 18th 515 Covered Call... for a 511.00 debit.
Comments: After taking profit, re-upping here out in October, selling the 84 call against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Going lower delta here, since I've already realized gains for (basically) September.
There is a divvy to be had in Sept, with the last distribution being 1.76, so this will improve the unsexy ROC %-ages somewhat ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 511.00/share
Max Profit: 4.00 ($400); 5.76 ($576) with dividend, assuming a 1.76 distribution.
ROC at Max: .78% ROC at max; 1.13% ROC (with dividend)
50% Max: 2.00 ($200); 3.76 ($376) (with dividend)
ROC at 50% Max: .39% ROC. 74% ROC (with dividend)
Will generally look to take this off at >50% after the dividend drops or look to roll out in-profit short call to maintain net delta at +25 or less.
Opening (IRA): IWM October 18th 199 Monied Covered Call... for a 196.80 debit.
Comments: Re-upping with a monied covered call in the October 18th cycle. I left some money on the table by taking profit early. However, I don't want to be as aggressive as I usually am from a delta standpoint, since I already made money in the cycle, albeit after somewhat of a rollercoaster July/August.
Instead of selling the -75 delta call against as I usually do, I'm selling the -84 against, resulting in a net delta metric of around 16. The 16 delta strike is associated with 2 x the expected move, which is why I'm choosing that short call strike ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 196.80
Max Profit: 2.20
ROC at Max: 1.12%
50% Max: 1.10
ROC at 50% Max: .56%
I'll generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll in-profit short call out if and when the setup converges on +30 delta.
Opening (IRA): EWZ July 19th 31 Monied Covered Call... for a 30.31 debit.
Comments: Decent 30-day IV at 34.0%, but I'm primarily looking to position myself to grab the June dividend. IV is skewed to the put side in this underlying, so the general go-to would be short put, but to grab the dividend, you have to be in stock.
Because I want the extrinsic in the short call to exceed any dividend, I'm basically going at-the-money/slightly monied with the short call and will look to manage the position after the dividend drops. Unfortunately, the distribution has been wildly variant, so it's hard to tell how much extrinsic to keep in the short call to diminish the prospect of being called away early due to some dick exercising their long call early to grab the dividend.
Metrics (Sans Dividend):
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 30.31
Max Profit: .69
ROC at Max: 2.28%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.14%
75% gains BUY/HOLD IWM/RUS2K C*H trade setup🔸Hello traders, today let's review 2daily chart for IWM . Entering re-accumulation stage now, expecting range bound trading during next fer months. We've hit heavy overhead resistace / limited upside currently.
🔸The speculative chart pattern is bullish C*H in progress, expect more range locked price action for a few months as we re-accumulate and get ready to clear the ATH. Measured move price projectiong for the C*H structure is 350 USD, 75% upside from the recommended BUY ZONE.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: wait for IWM to re-accumulate in the sliding
bull flag formation and get ready to BUY/HOLD low near 200 USD, target
based on measured move projection is 350 USD. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Milking buyers similar to 2008? TheoryJust an interesting comparison, these trends might intuitively show the possibility of slow liquidity exit.
Energy vs Tech : Analyzing Sector Performance and Market TrendsIntroduction:
The comparison between the energy sector (XLE) and the technology sector (XLK) provides valuable insights into current market trends. As the largest sector in the S&P 500, XLK often serves as a barometer for broader market strength. Conversely, when XLE outperforms XLK, it may signal caution, as XLE's smaller size limits its impact on the overall index.
Analysis:
Sector Comparison: XLK's performance is crucial in indicating market health. When XLK outperforms, it generally suggests a robust market outlook. On the other hand, if XLE starts to outperform XLK, this may indicate potential weakness in broader market conditions.
Inflationary Pressures: This ratio between XLE and XLK also reflects inflationary trends. A strong performance from XLE relative to XLK may signal rising inflationary pressures, which investors should closely monitor.
Charting the Pattern: The energy sector has formed an inverted saucer pattern. A breakout from this pattern could signify a positive upward trend and possibly a return to inflation.
Trade Setup:
Entry Point: Monitor the XLE/XLK ratio for a potential breakout confirmation.
Stop Loss: Consider setting a stop loss below the recent support level identified on the chart.
Target Price: Set a target based on the measured move from the breakout point of the inverted saucer pattern.
Conclusion:
The comparative performance of XLE and XLK offers essential insights into market dynamics and inflationary pressures. Traders should keep an eye on the potential breakout from the inverted saucer pattern in XLE, as it may indicate a shift in market trends. What are your thoughts on this analysis? Share your insights in the comments!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the XLE/XLK ratio and the inverted saucer pattern)
#Energy #Technology #MarketTrends #Inflation #XLE #XLK
My Watchlist: GDXGDX, I have a green setup signal(dot Indictor). It has an excellent risk-to-reward ratio(RR:). I'm looking to enter long near the close of the day if the stock can manage to TRADE above the last candle highs(white line). If triggered, I will then place a stop-loss below(red line) and a price target above it(green line).
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Note: The above setups will remain valid until the stock CLOSES BELOW my set stop-loss level.
$SPY October 11, 2024AMEX:SPY October 11, 2024
15 Minutes.
575 was protected yesterday.
Now we have 9,21,50 averages converged in 15 minutes.
For the rise 566.63 to 577.71 holding 573.5 to 575 uptrend will continue to 579 levels.
For the fall 577.58 to 574.59 need to cross 576.5 - 577 for 579 levels.
The longs opened around 575 yesterday will be closed around 579-579.5 levels.
For the SL will be 573 levels.
$IWM Tomorrow’s Implied Move for PPIAMEX:IWM Tomorrow’s Implied Move for PPI
Alright, IWM. We had the bearish cross down in the first week of Oct and since then we’ve seen the 30min 200MA as resistance as we make our way back to the 50DMA.
Implied move for tomorrow is 214 - 219, 35EMA is above us and so is the 1hr 200MA and they both acted as resistance today. If we get above that duo then the next target is the 30min 200MA which has been a clear resistance since we crossed down. If we do get to that level I would be looking at 220/221 or 221/222.
And then if it holds as resistance then look to the 50Day Moving average. The momentum there is pulling us down. 214 is sitting right on the 200DMA and if we get down there I would be looking to sell 213/212 bull put spreads since the DMA acted as support today for a technical bounce.
— Storm update: I’m so good, but I don’t have power so I can’t make videos until that’s fixed. Until then I’ll be posting charts here when I can. 🙌🏼
$SPY Tomorrow’s Implied Move for PPI
Alright, y’all. We have a fully bullish setup here with the 35EMA underneath us and the 30min 200MA under that for support. ATH’s right above.
Play both sides…
Here we are also holding above the rate cut gap after FOMC. It’s my opinion that we need to go in there and test it for real support but so far we’re bullish - watch Stupid Willy here for either a return to the green or a breakdown here to the 30min 200 on the day.
— Storm update: I’m so good, but I don’t have power so I can’t make videos until that’s fixed. Until then I’ll be posting charts here when I can. 🙌🏼
$DIA Tomorrow’s Implied Move for PPI
Alright, y’all. So we consolidated back to the 35EMA and we still have a bullish setup here. We either bounce on it tomorrow and make new all time highs, or we drop to the 30min 200MA
We do have support on top of the Bull gap that we made after rates were cut. So the top of the rate cut gap is at 418.
— Storm update: I’m so good, but I don’t have power so I can’t make videos until that’s fixed. Until then I’ll be posting charts here when I can. 🙌🏼
$SPY is Spying on You This is a very simple and straightforward technical analysis on AMEX:SPY of price action VS the Moving Averages.
A tried, True and Valid method of analysis is knowing when we have become to extended from the moving averages and determining that a return to the mean is appropriate.
In the case of the AMEX:SPY , SP:SPX or CAPITALCOM:US500 we are more and more extended by the day.
For comparison I have included an image from the Dot Com Bubble Crash when we moved 47% away from the 20 Year Moving Average. Again in 2022 when we moved nearly 32% away from the 20 year moving average. The NDX for reference was almost 75%!!!! Off it's moving average in the Dot Com Bubble.
We currently sit at nearly 33% away from the 20 Year Moving Average.
To Say we are extended is an overstatement. Things will return to normal.
But will we have a spectacular blow off top first?
QQQ for Friday (11/10/2024)Price Action:
Current Resistance: QQQ is encountering resistance near the 493.71 - 494.47 level. This zone has been tested several times but hasn't been broken, suggesting possible overhead supply.
Support Levels: Strong support is evident around 479.90 - 483.34, indicated by the green order block zone. Buyers have shown interest in this region on previous pullbacks.
Trendline: There is an upward trendline providing support, showing that the ETF is maintaining an overall bullish structure. Any pullback to this trendline could act as dynamic support.
Direction:
Bullish Scenario: If QQQ breaks above 494.47 with increased volume, it could continue its upward trajectory. Look for a breakout confirmation before entering a long trade.
Bearish Scenario: A failure to break above the resistance could push QQQ toward its support at 483.34 or even further down to 479.90. If the price closes below the trendline, it may signal a reversal or correction.
Order Block:
Bullish Order Block: The green order block around 479.90 - 483.34 shows significant buying interest. A pullback to this area may result in a bounce as buyers step back in.
Bearish Order Block: No immediate bearish order block visible in the upper range, but rejection at resistance could form one in the near term, especially if volume increases.
Volume and Indicators:
Volume: Volume seems steady but not surging, which could indicate caution among participants as price approaches resistance.
Momentum Oscillators: The oscillators show mixed signals with slight volatility. Watch for momentum shifts that may indicate a reversal or continuation.
Strategy:
For long positions, look for a breakout above 494.47 with higher volume and momentum confirmation. Target higher resistance zones or ride the trend if volume spikes.
For short positions, a failure at resistance or a break below 483.34 could open short opportunities, especially toward the 479.90 support zone.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
SPY for Friday (10/11/2024)Price Action:
Current Resistance Zone: SPY appears to be hovering around a resistance zone near 577.64 - 577.71. These levels have seen multiple tests but no breakout. The market has consolidated in this region.
Support Zones: There's a visible support area at 565.31, marked by a green order block on the chart. The price has previously bounced from this level.
Trendline Support: There's a rising trendline suggesting that the overall structure still remains bullish, provided the price continues to respect it.
Direction:
Bullish Bias: The price is still in an uptrend as it hasn't broken below the trendline support. However, if SPY fails to break above the 577.71 resistance zone, it might pull back toward the trendline or the lower support near 567.50.
Bearish Potential: A break below 574.47 could lead to further downside toward 573.34 and potentially lower to the 565.31 area if selling pressure increases. Watch for a confirmation of trendline break or further rejection at resistance.
Order Block:
Bullish Order Block: The green block area around 567.50 to 565.31 represents an accumulation zone where buyers have previously stepped in, creating a support base. If price retraces to this zone, it's likely to see buying activity again.
Bearish Order Block: If the price fails to break above the 577 region and reverses, it could set up a lower high, pushing it back toward the trendline or the green block. Monitor how price behaves in this resistance zone.
Indicators:
Volume: Volume seems to be decreasing in the recent rally, which could indicate weakening bullish momentum, especially near resistance.
Momentum Oscillators: The oscillators below the chart seem to show volatility spikes, indicating a potential shift in momentum soon.
Strategy:
For scalping, you may consider shorts near 577.64 with a stop just above 577.71, aiming for a retracement to the order block around 567.50.
For long trades, look for a bounce or consolidation at the lower trendline or support block near 565.31 for potential entries.
Disclaimer:
This technical analysis is based on historical price data and does not guarantee future performance. Always consider external factors, such as macroeconomic data and market conditions, when trading. Risk management is essential to limit potential losses.
SPY 10/10 Trading PLanToday, we opened at 575.77 with a current ATR of 5.80. The range for today will be between 581.57 to 569.97. VIX at 21. Let's see if it wants to continue higher to test 581. I think it may just base here. But if it does climb up to 580 or 581 ill look at price action there and see if I enter a short position. If we come down to 569ish, I look to get into the upside. In the meantime, I'll sit on my hands. I don't think much is going to go on today. Lets see what happens.
A longer term entry for short VNQ via DRVI will be dabbling with DRV until this Monthly goes back to a buy. I think this is a position of maximum opportunity to enter short real estate.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-10 : Carryover in Carryover ModeToday's cycle pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ price action will be very similar to yesterday's price action. I believe the markets are starting to move away from the basing/bottoming phase and moving back into trending phase.
Thus, I believe the SPY & QQQ will begin a rally up to highs reached before October 20-21, then form a top, and toll downward just before the US elections.
Gold needs to find some support and move higher - away from the 2625 price level. It is critical that Gold stay above 2620 at this stage. if Gold falls below 2620 - there is a very strong chance Gold will move into deeper consolidation and fail to rally above the 2750++ level I expect.
BTCUSD has already reached my lower support zone. I do expect Bitcoin to consolidate a bit near this lower price channel, but the next move is to either revert higher, or breakdown even further. Currently, I suggest waiting 20 to 48 hours with Bitcoin to let price settle on a new trend.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
FXI Still Time to Capitalize on the China Stimulus RallyThe recent surge in Chinese stocks following China’s central bank stimulus announcement signals a promising opportunity for those looking at the iShares China Large-Cap ETF. The stimulus package, part of a series of aggressive moves from Chinese policymakers, reflects a significant shift in their approach to economic management. For years, China hesitated to implement large-scale stimulus measures, fearing the long-term risks. However, the latest actions show that this cautious mindset has been abandoned, with the government now prioritizing immediate economic recovery.
This newfound willingness to deploy powerful monetary tools suggests that China’s central bank is prepared to act decisively to combat the economic pressures the country is facing. With this level of commitment, it’s reasonable to expect that the stimulus will have a meaningful impact, potentially accelerating growth in key sectors. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF, which tracks some of the largest Chinese companies, stands to benefit significantly from this shift. As these companies often reflect the broader health of China’s economy, investors could see strong gains in the near term as the effects of the stimulus ripple through the markets.
Given the central bank's proactive measures and the potential for further interventions, the iShares China Large-Cap ETF presents a compelling opportunity for bullish investors who want to capitalize on China's economic rebound.
