Zero coupon bonds 🚀This is the most extreme US Treasury bond ETF. Basically pay some amount and get back face value in 25 years. Inflation would kill these, whereas deflation and falling interest rates will send this to the moon.
Interestingly this pays a dividend in line with other bonds, I looked it up and it looks like the fund has to do this for tax purposes, but the underlying security has literally a Macaulay duration of 25 years. TLT by comparison is 17 years (per iShares website), so duration risk is 50% higher.
Using fibs a modest pullback to 78, completing a IHS, would be a great place to start loading up, assuming 1) this thing doesn't just take off right here, and 2) I'm not totally wrong and inflation comes back next year.
ETF market
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 22, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 22, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📈 Treasury Yields Surge Amid Weak Bond Auction
U.S. Treasury yields continued their upward trajectory, with the 10-year yield nearing 4.6% and the 30-year yield surpassing 5%, marking the highest levels since early 2023. This increase followed a weak $16 billion auction of 20-year bonds, which attracted less investor demand and sold at higher-than-expected yields. Factors contributing to the rise include fading recession fears, persistent inflation concerns, and growing fiscal worries related to potential tax cut extensions.
📉 Stock Market Declines as Tech Stocks Retreat
The stock market experienced significant losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.9%, falling below its 200-day moving average. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.6% and 1.4%, respectively.
💼 Snowflake ( NYSE:SNOW ) Reports Strong Earnings
Snowflake Inc. reported record quarterly revenue of $1.04 billion, surpassing expectations. Product revenue increased 26% year-over-year to $996.8 million. The company raised its full-year forecast to $4.325 billion, reflecting a 25% year-over-year increase. Despite a GAAP net loss of $430 million, Snowflake posted an adjusted profit of 24 cents per share, exceeding the 21-cent estimate.
📊 Morgan Stanley Turns Bullish on U.S. Stocks
Morgan Stanley has shifted to a bullish stance on U.S. stocks and bonds, raising its outlook due to signs of market stabilization and improving growth conditions. The bank maintains a base target of 6,500 for the S&P 500 by mid-2026, with a bullish scenario projecting 7,200.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, May 22:
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Services PMI for May
10:00 AM ET: Advance Services Report (First Quarter 2025)
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
**Trade Update Post: BITx**Trying something new here for the community to follow along with me.
This is an update to my ongoing CBOE:BITX trade showing my ‘Fibonacci Triangle’ standing strong in the wake of some minor consolidation. I have highlighted by arrow during this run the last trend bounce we made before continuing upwards. I am okay with the same type of price action even with potential retracement down to the lower HV10 weekly range of $48.
Due to leverage decay on top of time decay I have set an exit path of May 22nd if I do not see the same type of bounce off my retracement trend line. This mark is Thursday next week. PT is still $58-$60
Cheers!
The 'Fibonacci Triangle' and Historical Volatility Along with the harmonic I just posted to the community showing confluence with HV63 regression that started to take place last week, I wanted to include my 'Fibonacci Triangle' with my predictive volatility range idea.
I see HV10 (bi-weekly) resonating off HV21 (monthly) to enter the week. This would create roughly a $4.92 range if correct for tomorrow. From there we can continue to increase in volatility into the week until full means regression to quarterly trending averages are met.
This can be reflected in the daily candle through the trending bi-weekly daily volatility print on the day, then calculated into range. Of course as always, my ranges are weighted to the current IV environment.
If my target range of monthly volatility is reached tomorrow, which holds confluence in the 78.60% retracement value from selling off with BTC for 70 days..i'd say there is probability to move another $2.21 in regression, putting us just below $60.00.
CBOE:BITX
Ugly SP500 Reaction to Treasury YieldsUnlike other headline news, long term interest rates breaking out to the upside is an immediate threat to equity prices especially if it's driven by bond vigilantes rather than strong economic news. This will immediately compress valuations and particularly hurt high growth and small caps the most. In addition, this is not a one-off headline where equities markets can easily shake it off and continue to rally. I think we're going to test the gap ~$567 on AMEX:SPY after breaking down from a rising wedge and triggering the PSAR flip.
SPY Trading Opportunity! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for SPY is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 594.29
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 563.56
My Stop Loss - 611.99
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ about to FLUSH?! Let's talk about it!I'm not saying it's over but you have to admit it does feel like we are going to see a decent size pullback...2-6% over the next few weeks on the NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY
- TVC:VIX back over 20
- US20Y hit 52 week high
- USDJPY starting to creep towards April lows
- $491.54 GAP to fill on NASDAQ:QQQ
- $447.58 Bigger GAP to fill on NASDAQ:QQQ
- Credit starting to become and issue
- Banks/ Credit companies tanked today
There is bullish pieces as well but we do look extended here and a healthy 2-6% would be welcomed...A break of $475 level spells trouble on QQQ.
Trend Line in Play - Imminent Advance in Small Caps?Small Caps look the least extended in this equity rally and I really like the tight ranges before it advances to it's next box. My analysis puts IWM imminent on its next advance upwards. Put this trade idea under: "The trend is your friend until it bends".
SPY Intraday Breakdown | Will the Fill Zone Hold?🕰️ 15-Min Chart | May 21, 2025
🏢 Posted by: Wavervanir_International_LLC
A textbook ascending wedge breakdown has triggered intraday, breaching dynamic support right at the edge of the VWAP envelope. This breakdown aligns with a higher time-frame rejection seen near 598.22 (0.886 retrace zone).
🔍 Intraday Observations:
Structure Break: Rising wedge support snapped → suggests momentum shift short-term.
Next Liquidity Pools:
📍 567.51 – Prior HVN zone and VWAP mid-band
📍 559.30 – Golden pocket + historical positioning from April
Volume Spike: Bearish confirmation on rising sell-side volume.
🧠 Strategic Context:
Macro Tone: Market breathes as participants await key inflation data + Fed speak. Liquidity is not risk-on.
Risk Flow Watch: Options OI building around 560/570 strikes — could magnetize toward there if flow accelerates.
🛡️ Tactical Setup:
Short-Term Bias: Bearish to neutral into 567.5–559.3 zone
Mean Reversion Setup: Watch VWAP / 3-day anchored VWAP cluster around 559 as a potential reload zone
Invalidation: Quick reclaim and hold above 590 with strong volume flips intraday tone bullish again.
📌 Message to Traders:
Major buyers may be lurking below. The market is deciding whether to reward trapped longs or give value buyers their fill at better risk-adjusted zones. We remain liquidity-aware and flexible.
—
🔗 #SPY #IntradayTrading #VolumeProfile #Wavervanir #LiquidityMapping #VWAP #Orderflow #SMC
SPY | Liquidity Engineering or Reversal?🕰️ Daily Chart | May 21, 2025
🏢 Posted by: Wavervanir_International_LLC
“Major buyers are lurking... but will the market deliver the fill they want?” That’s the question.
We’re currently watching a tactical rejection near 598.22, the 0.886 Fib retracement of the prior high-volume breakdown. This level historically serves as a liquidity sweep zone before decision-making candles emerge.
🔍 Technical + Volume Profile:
Liquidity Zones:
Resistance: 594.4–598.2 = prior supply + Fib confluence
Demand Zones:
567.5 → anchored VWAP / trend channel midpoint
559.3 → 0.618 Fib + major positioning cluster
Volume: Distribution volume into prior highs = possible short-term exhaustion
EMA Structure: Bullish stack but extended from mean; room for reversion to VWAP bands.
🧠 Macro Overlay:
Risk Events: Debt ceiling headlines are muted, but upcoming PCE inflation and labor data could dictate short-term gamma positioning.
Options Skew: OTM put volume rising; VIX curve remains steep in front-end → suggesting hedging or prep for pullback.
Macro Setup: Real yields are sticky, and the Fed is not signaling dovish pivot yet — any continuation will need confirmation via breadth and credit spreads.
🛡️ Risk Framework:
Reclaim 598.2: Bias flips bullish with upside into 613–644
Break Below 567.5: Opens doors for deeper retest at 559 or even 533
Neutral Range: 567.5–594.5 → Let market structure show intent before deploying size.
📌 Game Plan:
Let price come to you. Patience > Prediction. Market is deciding whether to reward early breakout traders or punish late longs via mean reversion. Watch the 567–559 cluster—that’s where smart money may reload.
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🔗 #SPY #MacroTrading #VolumeAnalysis #RiskManagement #Fibonacci #Wavervanir #SP500 #LiquidityMap
India 50 Major Market Caution Signs Emerging!Any time you see multiple head-and-shoulders patterns forming on the chart often signals serious trouble ahead.
Stay vigilant for a break in the right shoulder of this massive head-and-shoulders pattern currently developing.
As a macro trader, I focus on the big picture—economics and long-term trends. While markets like India and long-term trading don’t get much TV coverage, my aim is to shift your perspective and enhance your trading strategy.
Follow this post to track how multiple head and shoulders patterns and a rising bearish wedge evolve over time.
Let’s ignite your curiosity and elevate your overall trading and investing.
Like, follow, and subscribe to join me in tackling these wild markets. Let's get to 5,000 followers!
SPY and SOXX...kinda a big issue of realitySo if the SPXL tracks the SPY and is pretty chuck at the ATH....
And the SOXL tracks the SOXX and is at the ATL....
What am i missing that others get....cause when your semiconductors are said to the AI backbone and its our future.....
Why is SOXS and SOXL relatively close in price...
I mean SPXL (SPY long) is like 155 and SPXS (SPY short) is like 5 something
So how does that graph not say what you see if fake...hmmm
SPY trend reversal linear analysis, with parallel stackingAll the annotations speak for themselves...
but just a simple idea to see if there are levels that make sense if the descending line were to be reversed and applied to the ascending trend.
Have to follow those rules, and if too cluttered on choppy weeks- then hold the bottom line and only increase the newest line if you have price chopping greater than the height of the biggest candle in said chop.
ergo, if the biggest candle is say 4 point up from the last trend line off the inception permanent line ascending trend, then hold that line at the high of that day until price breaks above it. If chops continues above it, then draw another parallel 4 points (the height of that largest candle before the chop started) above the original line and hold it there until the chop continues up or is reverts and heads back down.
If you want to see if chop is a flag formation, then take the above example of a big candle up marking a new parallel line high and see if price for 3-4 days stays within it, pull down another parallel from that high and put it on that low...will allow for visual where the flag boundaries may be...
BTC 4hr examples:
Copper Nearing a Important DecisionCopper price began forming a negative move, activating with the negativity of the main indicators, to settle near the extra support at $4.5000, facing negative pressures will increase the chances for breaking the current support, to open the way towards targeting extra negative stations, which might begin at $4.4500 reaching $4.3100.
The failure to break the current support might push the price to form mixed trading, and there is a new chance for targeting 50%Fibonacci correction level near $4.6600.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.4500 and $4.5600
VAGX ETF: A Hidden Gem in an Era of Economic UncertaintyIn a world of shifting economic tides, investors are constantly searching for assets that offer both stability and growth potential. The Vanguard Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF (VAGX) may be one such opportunity, quietly accumulating strength amid global economic fluctuations.
Understanding VAGX ETF’s Accumulation Phase
VAGX tracks the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Float Adjusted and Scaled (CHF Hedged) index, which includes a diversified mix of corporate and government bonds. Since its inception in September 2021, the ETF has steadily grown, accumulating assets and reinvesting interest income to enhance long-term value. With 8,891 holdings and a low expense ratio of 0.10%, it offers broad exposure to global fixed-income markets.
Macroeconomic Landscape: Tariffs, Inflation, and Interest Rates
The global economy is at a critical juncture, with policy shifts and trade tensions shaping investment strategies. Key factors influencing VAGX’s potential include:
Tariffs & Trade Tensions: Recent tariff escalations have heightened uncertainty, impacting global trade and economic growth. This environment makes bond-based ETFs like VAGX attractive as investors seek stability.
Inflation Trends: Inflation is projected to moderate slightly in 2025, but remains a concern for central banks. Bond ETFs, particularly those with investment-grade holdings, can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures.
Interest Rate Outlook: The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates has been influenced by inflation and trade policies. While rate cuts may be delayed, fixed-income assets like VAGX can provide a reliable store of value in uncertain times.
Why VAGX Could Be a Strong Long-Term Holding
Diversification: Exposure to global bonds mitigates risk compared to single-market investments.
Accumulating Nature: Interest income is reinvested, compounding returns over time.
Hedged Against Currency Fluctuations: CHF hedging reduces volatility from exchange rate movements.
Low Expense Ratio: At 0.10%, it remains cost-efficient for long-term investors.
Final Thoughts
As the global economy navigates inflationary pressures, trade uncertainties, and interest rate shifts, VAGX ETF stands out as a stable, accumulating asset with strong long-term potential. Investors looking for a reliable store of value and gradual appreciation may find this ETF an attractive addition to their portfolios.
SIX:VAGX INDEX:BTCUSD SP:SPX TVC:DXY OANDA:XAUUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD $ EURONEXT:N100 SIX:SMI TVC:SXY
IHAK ETF remains a BUY for meAccording to this site Americans 60 and older lost $4.8 billion to cyber-crime in 2024......
That is a lot of money LOST. In the cyberspace, more digital information is stored online be it hard disk or using the cloud space. Hackers or digital criminals skilled in computer skills are able to access to private and confidential information of hospitals, government agencies and banks. There have been many cases being exposed online.
This gives the CEO sleepless nights as such sensitive information like medical records, financial information should be kept confidential. In comes the cyber security companies to help prevent this from happening.
So, in a big picture, all I need to know is more cyber crimes are happening worldwide as internet penetration gets deeper from desktops, laptops to mobile phones and people are almost unable to live without one device or multiple. Call it withdrawal symptom or addiction, the more people use, the more data/information is being stored and the more it needs to be protected.
That is why I like both the IHAK ETF . Since this is a pretty concentrated sector, I would prefer buying the blue chips cybersecurity company than to cherry pick the companies. This way, I have the best of both world and a margin of safety as well.
Of course, buying a broad based ETF , you cant expect the returns to beat the individual company so managing your own expectations is important.
As usual, please DYODD