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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 1, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 ISM Manufacturing PMI Release: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which could influence market sentiment.​ 🇺🇸🏗️ Construction Spending Data: The U.S. Census Bureau will report on February's construction spending, providing insights into the health of the construction industry and potential impacts on related sectors.​ 🇺🇸📄 Job Openings Report: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February will be released, offering a view into labor demand and potential implications for wage growth and consumer spending.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, April 1: 🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 49.5%​ Previous: 50.3% Assesses the health of the manufacturing sector; a reading below 50% suggests contraction.​ 🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.3%​ Previous: -0.2%​ Measures the total value of construction work done; indicates trends in the construction industry.​ 📄 Job Openings (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 7.7 million​ Previous: 7.7 million​ Provides insight into labor market demand by reporting the number of job vacancies.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update : Rejecting The BreakdownDoes this big rejection bar mean the selling trend is over? I doubt it. In my opinion and experience, big rejection bars like this reflect a critical price level where the markets will attempt to REVISIT in the near future. Normally, when we get a big rejection bar, like today, we are testing a critical support/resistance level in price and you can see the difference between the SPY, DIA and QQQ charts. The QQQ price data is already below the critical support level and barely trying to get back above the rejection level. Whereas the SPY and DIA are still above the rejection lows. I see this as a technology driven breakdown and because of the continued CAPTIAL SHIFT, we may move into a broader WAVE-C breakdown of this current trend. I see the SPY already completing a Wave-A and Wave-B. If this breakdown plays out like I expect, we'll see a bigger breakdown in price targeting $525-535, then possibly reaching $495-505 as the immediate ultimate low. If you follow my research, there is a much lower level near $465-475 that is still a likely downward target level, but we'll have to see how price reacts over the next 2+ days before we can determine if that level is still a valid target. Watch for more support near recent lows tomorrow, then a potential breakdown in the SPY/QQQ/DIA. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
QQQ - Double Top BreakdownQQQ has formed a double top, a classic bearish reversal pattern indicating potential trend exhaustion. The price has broken below the neckline, confirming the pattern and signaling further downside. If selling pressure continues, we could see a move toward the target zone. This breakdown suggests that bulls are losing momentum, and unless QQQ can reclaim the neckline, the bearish bias remains intact. However, false breakdowns can occur, so it's important to watch for a potential retest of the neckline before further downside. 📊 Key Levels: 🔵 Entry: Breakdown confirmation below support 🔴 Stop Loss: 524.65 🔻 (Invalidation level if price reclaims this zone) 🟢 Target: 458.59 ✅ (Measured move from the pattern) 🔎 Watch for: 📌 A retest of the neckline as resistance 📌 Increased volume confirming the breakdown 📌 Possible continuation if sellers remain in control This setup presents a strong risk-to-reward opportunity for bears, but staying cautious of any reversals is key.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by pliesfargo
3
TLT longer term high...I do dowsing and checked on TLT today. My work is suggesting this is a longer term high and that TLT will move down to around $85. I'm not the best at getting time frames for things to occur, but I ask anyway. At a minimum dates more often than not signal some kind of reversal - though it may only be short term. Anyway, I get $85 in about 21 days, or 3/19. I like TLT options. They're cheap and if TLT can keep from any close higher than these highs, I think good odds for down.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by JenRz
4
To catch a knife... QQQOk, I'm a little bummed I didn't make an idea sooner because my dowsing (as in with a pendulum) nailed the high on both SPY & QQQ. It is documented online, however, so I'm not making this up after the fact fyi. I had mentioned at the time (around 2/23) 11 days to hit the lower target in SPY (I'll do an idea for it as well). Wednesday is the deadline, though I don't put a ton of faith in these things, dates typically are things to watch in my work and can be reversals. On 2/26 I worked on what to expect for the first week in March. The message was it goes down, but there's a "scene of the crime" trade, spike down and low on... Wednesday the 5th! When I ask what does this look like, I get "v-bottom". My dowsing now keeps repeating there will be a small move up to sell into if we get a significant move away from the 503-04 area. I did my best to get levels, but obviously this is some woo woo kinda stuff, so it can be miraculous at times, and others a complete cluster. Definitely watch Wed. & the 468 area. Ideally, the time and price align for higher odds I'm correct. If we bounce, I'll try to find an upside target. There is also a lower target around 432, but I didn't dig into that much.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by JenRz
3/31/25 - $qqq - Correlation 1... no more protection 4 me3/31/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ Correlation 1... no more protection 4 me - bought back all my (covered calls) on the "rental" book, which is NYSE:VST , NYSE:UBER , NYSE:DECK , NASDAQ:BLDE , NASDAQ:GAMB as i'd rather take the 15-20% downside on what I believe are stocks that have at least 2x this in terms of upside into YE at this pt. esp in a quarter-end tape that simply looks "scared" - and i hear you guys that r saying "Bessent" told you more pain to come and "yes", but we shouldn't be believing anyone at this stage, friends. Think critically. here are some pts: - on my S&P math, the average stock is now down 20% from it's peak. i've writtent extensively about VIX mgmt and mag7 as a component of this equation. we've seen diff sectors, stocks and most importantly mag7 rotate seats (from cold to hot) at varying points in order to smooth the index. therefore, the index is the illusion here. "only an 8% correction" is meaningful in the above context. - i've reviewed all 500 of the S&P stocks in the last month, and on my thinking, about 80% of them are pretty obvious buys from a MT (nevermind LT context), let's describe MT as 12-18 months. that's not to say there isn't more downside, but buying the index at this pt (to low-IQ and chill) means you'll probably enter pretty well here - and the narrative/ thinking around AI is probably correct that "a lot of things are going to get demonetized especially software". but the mkt is currently confusing a few things. when we are correlation 1... the market says "all AI-related plays are losers" and that's objectively false. perhaps there will be more losers than winners, because this game of scale is one we haven't seen before. but when you're, say, selling something like NVDA that can't even meet it's chip demand for the next 2 years, trading at 4% FCF yield and growing >20% a year (probably 30-40% CAGR on my conservative math) versus a 10Y being forced lower and you tack on reinvestment risk to trying to "time" the NVDA bottom (which is *probably* at most 15-20% lower)... i'd contend - you're doing it wrong - or you think you're god. nobody times the bottom. we risk manage upside and downside risks with the book. - so acknowledging tariffs matter, rates matter, short term speech drives emotion. take a step back. i'd argue we're much closer to the bottom than the MSM will let on, as they're index-only thinkers. - what i'm really looking for is an open below lows (like we had today) and a massive red to green reversal. those have marked all major bottoms. again. we might have a few of these b/c we are in a whacky tape, but that sort of move should be taken into account. - one more point. seeing my favorite position NASDAQ:NXT dump nearly 6% at the open on "flows" and get rebid basically non-stop until i'm currently writing this... tells me most of what you're seeing is quarter-end balancers, so don't lose the signal through the noise. - i bought more OTC:OBTC today to top off too, even tho volume light (i'm probably 100% of that volume today already). limits only on this thing. - most importantly keep your head screwed on. last man standing without getting emotional wins, always. been here, done this. it never gets easier. but you learn to control your emotions. so take a step back. if you're sweating, take some exposure off, you're too big. but if you've made it this far, don't give up. assets > liabilities in this world. and the USD is ultimately a liability. never forget that. the goal isn't to accumulate dollars, but assets. V
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by VROCKSTAR
Opening (IRA): TMF May 16th 37 Covered Call... for a 36.05 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 36.05/share Max Profit: .95 ROC at Max: 2.64% 50% Max: .48 ROC at 50% Max: 1.32% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, look to add at intervals if I can get in at a break even better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call when that aspect hits 50% max.
AMEX:TMFLong
by NaughtyPines
SPY - Macro-Market Overview and what the algorithms are sayingCurrently we are being guided by a strong selling teal on the LTF but we must keep in mind the HTF algorithms of red and white (which are bullish liquidity builders). Right now, we need to see who wins out in this fight between teal and red - if we break red and prove teal guidance, we are definitively in strong selling and can easily make our way toward the HTF white at the low $500's. As always, let the algorithms guide you! Happy Trading :)
AMEX:SPY
by ReigningTrades
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-31 : Carryover PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to carryover Friday's selling trend. I do believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt to find some support as we move into a Temp Bottom pattern tomorrow. So be aware that the SPY/QQQ may attempt to find support near 535-540/450-455 over the next few days. I would also urge traders to not get very aggressive in terms of trying to pick a bottom in this downtrend. In my opinion, I don't see any reason why anyone should be buying into this breakdown unless you are prepared to take a few big lumps. Just wait it out - wait for a base/bottom to setup. Gold and Silver are moving higher and I believe this trend will continue for many weeks/months. BTCUSD should continue to move downward - trying to establish the Consolidation Phase range. As we move into trading this week. Be aware that Tuesday/Wednesday of this week are more ROTATION type days. They may be wide-range days - but they are still going to be ROTATIONAL. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
8