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S&P500 2022 into the Bear Market. Same Pattern 2025In 2022, before the bear market began, we saw the same pattern that we're seeing now: 1. Sine wave pattern 2. Fake recovery 3. Break above the sine wave top 4. Sharp decline Last week, right after the sine wave top was broken, U.S. bonds were downgraded AFTER OFFICIAL MARKET SESSION! It’s no surprise that rating agencies are losing confidence in the U.S. government's ability to repay its debts. Just look at the rising interest payments — if that’s not a wake-up call, I don’t know what is. 😕 I don’t live in the U.S., but I’m genuinely concerned that a collapse — which now seems nearly inevitable — will impact the entire world. Going long in U.S. markets under these technical and fundamental conditions? Putting all your eggs back into that basket? Really? I hope this gives some perspective. Trade safely, trade small, and keep your risks minimal.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
Spy Road To?Weekly Thesis for SPY Weekly High: $594.50 Weekly Low: $589.28 Weekly Close: $594.20 52-Week Range: $481.80 – $613.23 Critical Breakdown Level: 581 Why 581 matters: It sits well below S₃ (585.60) and aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the past four-week swing (High 594.50 → Low 566.76), which calculates to roughly 581.10. A decisive weekly close below 581 would breach both pivot-derived supports and this Fibonacci zone, opening the door to deeper pullbacks toward the May 9 low near $564.34 Potential Sell-Wall at 604 Why 604 is a resistance cluster: It sits just above R₃ (601.26), a confluence of weekly pivot resistance and likely profit-taking levels. A series of limit orders tend to cluster near these round-number extensions, forming a “sell wall” that may cap any rally unless broken on strong volume. 4. Strategy & Outlook Caution advised: SPY must hold above 581 on a weekly close basis. A failure to do so would invalidate the recent up-move and likely lead to a test of lower support zones around 587 and 585, then potentially the mid-560s. Bullish breakout: Only a sustained weekly close above 604—ideally on above-average volume—would signal renewed upside conviction and pave the way toward the 52-week high at $613+. Action plan: Wait for confirmation – don’t enter new longs until either 581 holds convincingly or 604 is cleared. Use tight risk controls – if deploying swing trades, place stops just below 581 for longs or just above 604 for shorts. Monitor volume – validate any breakout/breakdown with volume spikes to confirm institutional participation. Im Waiting On Confirmation as Always Safe Trades & JoeWtrades
AMEX:SPY
by JoeWtrades
Equities VS Bonds, why the current divergence?Introduction: should we finally go back to buying bonds? While the equity market has rebounded vertically since mid-April and the start of a period of trade diplomacy between the USA and its main trading partners, bond prices have remained at a low level. Although both realized and implied volatility have fallen sharply in recent weeks (see our bearish analysis of the VIX at the end of April), how can we explain such a divergence between the recovery in US stock prices and a bond price still at the bottom? For bonds, is this an opportunity to position at an attractive price? 1) First of all, take a look at the two charts below, which show the underlying trend and the recent trend of the S&P 500 (for the equities market) and the 20-year US interest rate contract (to represent the bond market) Chart showing weekly Japanese candlesticks on the S&P 500 future contract Graph showing monthly Japanese candlesticks on the US 20-year bond contract 2) The reasons for the outperformance of equities versus bonds are numerous and fundamental The underperformance of bonds versus equities is based on a combination of fundamental factors: - Firstly, corporate profit forecasts remain optimistic for the next 12 months, creating a favorable arbitrage for the equity market (see our previous analysis of the S&P 500 index). - The Federal Reserve's (FED) intransigence in the face of the risk of a rebound in inflation against the backdrop of the trade war. The market does not expect a resumption of the US federal funds rate cut before the monetary policy decision on Wednesday September 17. The inverted correlation between interest rates and bond prices is therefore a factor putting pressure on prices. - Beyond monetary policy, the United States' fiscal trajectory is also a topic of debate. The Republican bill to massively lower taxes could further deepen the federal deficit and add to an already colossal public debt, keeping long-term interest rates high. All the more so since, according to the Peterson Foundation, nearly $9.3 trillion in debt will mature over the next 12 months, adding to the estimated $2 trillion in deficit financing needs. - The new all-time high in global liquidity is creating a favorable arbitrage for risky assets in the stock market, due to the positive long-term correlation between the S&P 500 index and global liquidity 3) Even so, current bond prices are in a technical zone of long-term interest, and forward-looking fundamentals could allow bonds to rebound in the coming months The latest macroeconomic indicators confirm a loss of momentum in the US economy. In April, producer prices suffered their sharpest contraction in five years, suggesting that companies are absorbing some of the higher costs associated with trade tensions. At the same time, retail sales stalled, as consumers cut back on purchases in the face of persistent inflation on imported goods. If confirmed, these signs of a slowdown could lead to a “flight to quality” phenomenon, i.e. arbitrage in favor of the bond market over the coming months. The chart below is a reminder that the US bond market is currently at a major technical support level. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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NASDAQ:TLT
by Swissquote
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 19–23, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 19–23, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 Moody's Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing concerns over rising national debt and interest payment ratios. This move aligns Moody's with previous downgrades by Fitch and S&P Global, potentially impacting investor sentiment and increasing market volatility. 🛍️ Retail Earnings in Focus Major U.S. retailers, including Home Depot ( NYSE:HD ), Lowe’s ( NYSE:LOW ), Target ( NYSE:TGT ), TJX Companies ( NYSE:TJX ), Ross Stores ( NASDAQ:ROST ), and Ralph Lauren ( NYSE:RL ), are set to report earnings this week. Investors will be closely monitoring these reports for insights into consumer spending patterns amid ongoing tariff concerns. 💬 Federal Reserve Officials Scheduled to Speak Several Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Michelle Bowman and New York Fed President John Williams, are scheduled to speak this week. Their remarks will be scrutinized for indications of future monetary policy directions, especially in light of recent economic data and market developments. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, May 19: 8:30 AM ET: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks. 8:45 AM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams speak. 10:00 AM ET: U.S. Leading Economic Indicators for April. 📅 Tuesday, May 20: 8:30 AM ET: Building Permits and Housing Starts for April. 10:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks. 📅 Wednesday, May 21: 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales for April. 10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report. 📅 Thursday, May 22: 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims. 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI for May. 📅 Friday, May 23: 10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales for April. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY Daily Chart Taz Plan - May 2025 into June-July Breakdown📉 SPY Daily Chart Trading Plan — May 2025 Thesis: Price has returned to the exact level ($594.20) where the February impulse breakdown began. This zone is acting as a Lower High rejection within a broader bearish structure. A clean rejection here opens the door to multiple inefficiency fills below. 🔍 Structure Breakdown: Feb High (ATH): $613.23 Feb Open: $592.67 Feb Close (last green candle before impulse): $594.20 Current Price: $594.20 Marked LH: $592.50 This is a rally back into rejection, not strength. 📉 Key Zones & Gaps: 🔺 Gap Supply: $566.48 – $578.50 🔺 Wick Gap: $558 – $566 → Needs a full-body candle to initiate fill 🟥 FVG (4/22): $528 – $541.52 🧱 Major Support: $481.80 🧠 Trade Plan: Short Entry 1 (Confirmation-Based): 🔻 Red candle rejection under $592.50 = starter short 🔻 Watch RSI and MACD for momentum fade Short Entry 2 (Gap Breach): 🔻 If $578 is broken and retested → scale in 🔻 Gap fill expected quickly once triggered Short Entry 3 (Wick Gap): 🔻 Body close through $558 = last add 🔻 Sets up for final flush to FVG 🎯 Targets: $578.50 → $566.48 (Gap Fill) $558 → $541.52 (Wick Gap & FVG Top) $528 – $530 (FVG Close) $481.80 (Long-Term Panic Target) ❌ Invalidation: Daily close > $595.50 = Pause thesis Weekly close > $600 = Structural shift, short squeeze zone 🧠 Final Thoughts: This isn’t just a gap fill play — it’s a structural fade from a lower high back into memory. The Feb impulse wave left behind layers of inefficiency, and price just tapped the origin of the breakdown. Momentum is peaking. If this is a trap, the downside should begin immediately. Let the chart prove it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TazmanianTrader
3
US Downgrade, 3-5-10% Pullbacks But Still Bullish on S&PHappy Sunday!!! US Futures open lower after Friday's close and Moody's downgrade. Last time this occurred in 2011, the S&P dropped around 10% from the "news." This is all interesting timing but I'm still liking pullbacks for opportunities to position bullish in the US indexes (S&P, Nasdaq, Dow) Because the melt-up continues to run (US/China gap last week and drift higher), I'm trying to stay patient for a pause or pullback Trump and Bessent are still chirping about Tariffs and a government "detox" so a round of trade war related news may help calm the market's red hot advance post April 7 lows I'm selling calls on owned positions for income. I'm waiting for more favorable levels to add new positions, but within 3-4% of all time highs for the S&P and Nasdaq I don't think anybody will be surprised to see the all-time highs revisited in the near to medium-term Let's have a great week - thanks for watching!!! -Chris Pulver
AMEX:DIA
by ChrisPulver
SPY volatility this weekI'm posting the rest of the readings I did for each week this month on SPY. This week I'm expecting a drop into Wed. I get all my info from dowsing, btw. I noticed all last week it kept suggesting to sell rallies, which makes me thing we're going to pull back. The weekly (done at the beginning of the month) did suggest over 5% down this week. But my dowsing now says to watch for a bounce Wed. with a look below & fail. Move up to some extent Wed. & reverse down Thursday (implies gap up or some up). Then Friday up. Short term watching the $575 area for the bounce or resumption of trend. Next week's reading of down more is a bit of a head scratcher, so that's why I think things could just be really volatile. Low on QQQ I'm looking for is 498.
AMEX:SPYShort
by JenRz
I was early, but not wrong - 571 target still standsHello Traders, We can clearly see a top signal as SPY has started to play out a bearish divergence at the 594 level. The 594 level seemed to fade during after hours upon the announcement of Moody's US credit downgrade as the price sliced through the 590 level all the way down to 588. I believe the price will rapidly cascade down sub 580, down to 571 Monday - Tuesday. The gap fill is at 565.13. The gap fill level is too obvious, therefore I would be surprised if the price perfectly reversed (although, expect a reaction at this level). My target for this downturn is 561.63, which is the 38.2% fib level, as low as 551.48. This would offer a great pullback and buying opportunity for the long term, for the bullish case. I personally believe that the stock market won't make all time highs, but does not mean I will miss out on bullish opportunities, if the trend does truly reverse. As always, we will have to see what Monday brings us.
AMEX:SPYShort
by gencollado
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) Weekly Technical Analysis4H Chart (Short-Term View) Trend: Ongoing bullish momentum with dominant green candles. Key Breakout: Strong breakout above the $594–$596 resistance zone, which now acts as support. Volume Profile (VPVR): A low-volume area between $595 and $610 suggests potential for a swift move higher. Indicators: The Ichimoku Cloud shows rising support, with positive band compression. Projection: As long as the price holds above $594, there is potential to test the $610–$615 area. Daily Chart (Medium-Term View) Fibonacci Levels: The 0.786 level was broken decisively, indicating strong bullish momentum. Trend: Clearly bullish, supported by declining volume on pullbacks and steady upward movement. Volume: Consistent increase in buying volume since April strengthens the bullish case. Upcoming Resistance: $610–$615 (previous highs). Weekly Chart (Long-Term View) Recovery: A solid rebound from the March lows. VPVR: The high-volume node between $455 and $475 has been left behind, now acting as a structural support. Macro Trend: Price has returned to a previous consolidation area from the prior bull market. Risks: While there is room for further upside, the $610 area could act as both technical and psychological resistance. Key Levels Immediate Resistance: $610–$615 Technical Support: $594–$596 Structural Support: $560 (significant volume cluster) Conclusion SPY maintains a strong bullish structure across all timeframes, with sustained upward momentum and room to challenge previous highs. The reaction around the $610 zone will be critical. As long as price holds above $594, the structure remains favorable for buyers. However, given the lack of historical volume in this price range, short-term volatility or pullbacks are possible. Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation. Always assess your own risk profile and consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
AMEX:SPYLong
by tradingbauhaus
GLD where to?My dowsing work suggested a high around $288 on GLD, which obviously worked out (see prior idea). There's often a decent reversal opportunity once levels are hit. This one was golden... Wah-wah. I'm trying not to over ask on things because with my work, I think it opens the door for misleading information or confusion on my part. Simply put, the guidance was to get a date from the past, which was Jan. 10th. Look to revisit that price, which happens to correlate with the area of the 200 sma. When I asked what price from the H/L of that day, I get $249. I drew a line to show the reference candle from January. I ask what date this may occur by & get May 15th, but another date came of July 26th. There's some big stuff I think happening in indexes too in June/July. Dates are often reversals, but can be nothing. You just never know, but odds are more often they are something.
AMEX:GLDShort
by JenRz
2
GDXJ short to $44Using my dowsing readings on GDXJ as confirmation was helpful for the long GLD idea, so why not use it for the move down idea? Only this time, I'll post what I get :) As I mentioned, I'm a dowser & all my ideas and levels come from that. There's not much to this idea other than it shouldn't go much above 54. I do have a bit higher on GLD, and then a significant correction, which on GDXJ gives me a target of $44. Levels hit well before, so hopefully, we can get lucky again.
AMEX:GDXJShort
by JenRz
Why Traders Chase — and Always LoseHard truth: You don’t miss opportunities. You chase noise. Let’s break down the real reason you keep “missing moves”: 1. FOMO is not urgency — it’s confusion. When you enter because “everyone’s talking about it,” you’re not trading a setup. You’re reacting to social proof. 2. Volatility ≠ opportunity. Big moves look attractive, but if they’re not in your plan — they’re distractions, not trades. 3. The market rewards patience, not activity. Every click, every chart, every refresh feeds your dopamine — not your edge. 🚫 Solution? Stop scanning. Start filtering. Use tools that prioritize structure over noise. That’s why we built TrendGo — to give clarity in chaos and help you avoid traps masked as opportunity. 📌 Don’t chase. Build your edge.
AMEX:GLDEducation
by TrendGo_Official
4
SPY or SPX vs 3 month Treasury yieldLets just few the picture and let it tell us a 1000 words. Everyone says to the moon...Just like 2009, up we go....Just like 2020, up we go But let us view it another way...eh? You "stole/froze" whatever you label it...Russian Assets and kicked them from Swift, which they return the favor by arguing that the ceasefire deal cant be done cause they don't like the style of pen you brought that day.... You decided to show the the world that you will turn a certain area of the Mediterranean into a French Plaza with beach front hotels, and may...maybe give the inhabitants vouchers to move away- one can say its a booming deal for them. You decide to demonstrate to the world that on a tweet's notice you will change policy without official announcements and policy update for the rest of the world. Then you decide...well I think that picture is becoming clear- Japan just bit the hand of Uncle Sam and said 'if you step any closer the treasuries get it' So in all, the rally to ATH is literally exactly like 2009 and 2020, since there is literally nothing that has changed and everything above was equally going on, just change the dates and the people/places involved but exactly the same right. Except for that weird number 0...0% which seemed to occur in 2009 and 2020- no coincidence there and todays 4.3% means absolutely nothing...just slight inflation, roughly 12-13k % increase...but its no issue. So what can we surmise here....: Well you were dropping for a good amount of time in 2009- ~504 days and in 2020 you basically turned the lights off and then on again...so that seems to fit with what just happened here right>> you had 282 days of drop in 2022, which is 56% of 2009 and you literally made up a number of tariffs, then made up a lower number a month later and bingo-bango back up you go.... butttt...one of these things in pink just doesn't quite fit...so honestly it will be a delight to see how the see-saw theory works: I call it a theory cause there is no proof on the chart that when the market goes up- yields go up, no case for it and not visible on the chart anywhere....So we should be good. Ergo.... As the market makes ATH and keeps charging up, the yields will go back down to 0% or so on the 3month and stay there cause that follows the see-saw theory. You don't keep money in the markets for too long as they rise, you rotate it into the treasuries cause you get a better stable return. So...Trump and Bessent win...getting lower yields and a higher stock market- cause just look at the Technical Analysis everyone- there is only emotion in people saying Yields go up as the S&P goes up, its not cold hard logical facts right...only emotional people think stocks make yields go up..jeez ---- If you agree with the last bit there...you may need to check your local big city, over 2-3million inhabitants, to see how you are doing in these ATH markets....you may find that when treasuries are up....you arent doing so well on the street.. You can lie to a Tiger and say according to the charts you are more advanced than him and you will, according to the charts, beat him due to your superiority. He however lives in reality and wonders why you are talking to him and showing him a paper- so he offs you and walks away- feeling nothing cause you were the emotional one trying to use a chart to tell nature what it isn't. :) be careful out there...cause V-bottom explosions need a 0 or close to 0% interest rate...and 4.3 isn't 0, so study an elliot wave guy and see if this isnt what is called the "B-wave" where you may settle back in the 400 range soon..and low 400 at that.
AMEX:SPY
by CYQOTEK
2
SQQQ | Im Very Bearish the Markets Going into Q1 - 2025How I see It: (The commentary is purely my own thoughts based on my research comparing it to what I've seen in the media and other social media sites) SQQQ smooths out the noise and shows me if we are in a bearish scenario in the technology sector. This ETF has been in a bullish divergence for the last 6 months, and it showing signs its time to pop higher. That equates to the QQQ's going into a correction mode over the next 3 - 6 months. Be careful as profit taking will come hard, and margin calls will run crazy. ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times the inverse (-3x) of the daily performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index. The fund invests in financial instruments that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns consistent with the fund's investment objective. The index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. The fund is non-diversified.
NASDAQ:SQQQLong
by DivergenceSeeker
2