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AVGX – Defiance – 30-Min Long Trade Setup!📈 🚀 🔹 Asset: AVGX (NASDAQ) 🔹 Timeframe: 30-Min Chart 🔹 Setup Type: Falling Wedge Breakout + Support Bounce 📊 Trade Plan (Long Position) ✅ Entry Zone: Around $15.00 (breakout confirmation + retest bounce) ✅ Stop-Loss (SL): Below $14.55 (recent low & demand zone) 🎯 Take Profit Targets 📌 TP1: $15.99 (gap-fill zone / supply area) 📌 TP2: $17.12 (strong resistance zone) 📊 Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation 📉 Risk (SL Distance): $15.00 - $14.55 = $0.45 risk per share 📈 Reward to TP1: $15.99 - $15.00 = $0.99 → (2.2:1 R/R) 📈 Reward to TP2: $17.12 - $15.00 = $2.12 → (4.71:1 R/R) 🔍 Technical Analysis & Strategy 📌 Falling Wedge Pattern: Breakout from falling resistance trendline 📌 Support Confirmation: Price held near $14.55 before bouncing 📌 Retest Validated: Breakout zone retested with a bullish reaction (yellow circle) 📌 Momentum Shift: Squeeze indicator showing recovery potential ⚙️ Trade Execution & Risk Management 📊 Confirm bullish candle close above trendline breakout 📉 Trailing Stop Strategy: Move SL to breakeven after TP1 hits 💰 Partial Profit Booking Strategy ✔ Book 50% at TP1 = $15.99 ✔ Let the rest ride to TP2 = $17.12 ✔ Adjust SL to protect profits ⚠️ Breakout Failure Risk ❌ Setup fails if price breaks below $14.55 ❌ Wait for solid breakout candle before entering 🚀 Final Thoughts ✔ Falling wedge breakout signals reversal potential ✔ Strong support base around $14.50 ✔ High R/R setup with potential up to 4.7:1 🔗 #AVGX #NASDAQ #BreakoutTrade #ProfittoPath #ETFTrading #SwingTrading #TechnicalSetup #FallingWedge #SmartMoneyMoves #ChartPatterns
NASDAQ:AVGXLong
by ProfittoPath
$SPY Short position.To add context, I am an average joe in his 20's who graduated high school with a 1.6 GPA.. Prior to my current employment at a financial institution, I worked as a gas station clerk. I am not someone who sees himself as a genius, but I am somebody who identifies patterns not only in people, but charts as well. I've worked for a bank on the credit card side coming up on 5 years. Day in day out, people are struggling to keep up with their credit card payments. 750-830 FICOs struggling to keep up with bills. Keep in mind, I only work with what we deem our 'high value', cliental. If our card holders who we deem to be good or great consumers are struggling to keep up, I can only imagine what it looks like for those who don't qualify to get to my department (which is a rather big pool of people). This thesis is centered around a possible correction in the short term, that may lead to a long-term reset based off of 4 things: human behavior, Federal Reserve Data, inflation, and credit. The market as we know it has been propped on lies, fraud, and negligence. This is not a political post, but if you look at Federal Reserve Reports through FOMC under the previous administration, over 48% of job reports specifically, were revised downwards. During the duration of March of 2021 to September of 2024, approximately 808,000 jobs were "added", to the economy. One can make the argument that these numbers were there to, 'fluff, reportings to hide one of the worst economies in history. The Dollar has been a concept and an asset since 1785. Since 2020, we've printed over 60% of all dollars circulating. Over 200 years and it only took the U.S. a little under 5 years to print over 60% of all U.S. currency circulating. The inflation never left; it was hidden by false or fraudulent data. Americans have been squeezed from their hard-earned dollar for the last 4 years, between higher interest rates, higher inflation and cost of living. Remember how I mentioned I work for a bank on the credit card side? Minimal payments, easily $6500 dollar balances on average, being carried month to month between 24-27% APR. Americans DO not have money. Over the last month, one of the most common statements I've heard is, "The only way I can pay this off is I cash out on assets.". Delinquencies are sky rocketing to levels not seen since '07 - '08. People are slowly getting the same thought. The first week of April in my opinion is do or die. Trump is set to announce new tariffs as of April 2nd. If Trump decides to really lay down the tariffs and kick off a real trade war, markets will react in a manner of uncertainty. If in that same week, the Federal Reserve forecasts a lower GDP, a higher CPI, a decrease in forecast in employment, that could be the kick that takes the stool out from under the market. If you've made it this far, thank you for taking the time to consider my first publication. -ScG
AMEX:SPYShort
by ScG462
5
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-28-25 EOD Review : Brutal SellingI sure hope all of you were able to profit from this big selling trend today. And I also hope you didn't get trapped in the potential for a base/bottom rally off the recent lows. This move downward reminds me of the 2022-2023 downward trending pattern when the Fed was raising rates. What Trump is doing with tariffs is very similar. It is slowing the economy in a way that will not break it - but it will result in slower, more costly, economic function. Watch this video and I sure hope all of you have great (profitable) stories to share with me today. I know I do. And, I'm positioned for the weekend. Ready to profit no matter what the markets do. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
20
MSTUTalking heads like Tom Carreras put out knowingly false statements against MSTR. That’s called “scienter” and it’s a crime what he just did. Tom said that MSTU ETF may have to “sell MSTR” if times get tough. That is a false statement. Nowhere in the MSTU prospective does it say that MSTU has to buy or sell the underlying. I think they explicitly say that they do not, and that MSTU is a synthetic option vehicle. Correct me if I’m wrong. So, what he said was completely false and misleading. He wanted to threaten you against owning MSTU, but he failed to identify the primary risk in MSTU, which is a 50% drawdown in the underlying in a single day. That would completely wipe out MSTU holders, but no mention of it from Tom. Tom fails to understand where all of the value is coming from to “buy the dip” as he says. As least he is astute enough to realize it is the dip. Degens saw their position go up by 600%, and other degens noticed it, and they want in. Where is the money coming from? Bonds.
CBOE:MSTU
by Shammus01
2
SPY Bearish wave count The only one !The chart posted is that of the spy updated for the bearish wave structure . I have now exited my 125 % long position as the formation is forming SO FAR an ABC rally up with two legs if equal we should top today in cash at 5796 5805 in spy 575/577.9 IF the beasish count is correct we should see a 3 wave drop to retest the low or make a small new low for wave B then I will enter the long calls once again for a 5 wave rally under the bearish count the limit is .786 but based on history dated back to 1902 we should peak at .618 to .66 if The bearish wave count is were we are in the Cycle . But if we rally from here and close above 5805 I would see the market making New all time Highs .Best of trades WAVETIMER 1
AMEX:SPY
by wavetimer
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-28-25 : Carryover in Counter TrendToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move downward in early trading. The SPY may possibly target the 564-565 level before finding support. The QQQ may possibly attempt to target the 475-476 level before finding support. Overall, the downward trend is still dominant. I believe the SPY/QQQ may find some support before the end of trading today and attempt to BOUNCE (squeeze) into the close of trading. Gold and Silver are RIPPING higher. Here we go. Remember, I've been telling you of the opportunities in Gold/Silver and other market for more than 5+ months (actually more than 3+ years). This is the BIG MOVE starting - the BIG PARABOLIC price rally. BTCUSD has rolled downward off the FWB:88K level - just like I predicted. Now we start the move down to the $78k level, then break downward into the $58-62k level looking for support. Love hearing all of your success stories/comments. GET SOME. Happy Friday. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
7
SPY’s Epic Crash: Bearish Flag Unleashed!Buckle up, trading fam, because the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) just pulled a move so wild, it’s giving Keeping Up with the Kardashians a run for its money. We’re talking a bearish flag breakdown on the 4-hour chart that’s got more twists than a Game of Thrones finale, more drama than a Bachelor rose ceremony, and more profit potential than a Shark Tank pitch gone viral. If you’re ready to laugh, learn, and maybe make some cash, then grab your popcorn—this 2,500-word rollercoaster is about to take you on a ride you won’t forget! 🎢 Act 1: SPY’s Golden Era—Living Its Best Barbie Life Let’s set the scene: it’s late October 2024, and SPY is strutting its stuff like it’s Margot Robbie in Barbie. The price climbs from $570 to a dazzling $607.98 by mid-January 2025—a 6.5% glow-up that’s got traders swooning harder than Ken at a Dreamhouse party. SPY’s basically saying, “I’m not just an ETF—I’m iconic,” as it basks in the glow of a bull market hotter than a Love Island villa. But here’s the tea: even the shiniest stars can fall. By mid-January, the Stochastic Oscillator at the bottom of the chart is flashing “overbought” signals louder than a Real Housewives reunion meltdown. It’s the first sign of trouble—like when you realize the DJ at the club just played “Sweet Caroline” for the third time, and the vibe’s about to go south. SPY’s living large, but the party’s about to get crashed, Jersey Shore style. Act 2: The Flagpole Plunge—SPY Sinks Faster Than the Titanic Cue the dramatic music, because mid-January 2025 is when SPY decides to pull a full-on Titanic. The price plummets from $607.98 to $566.77 in a matter of days—a $41.21 drop, or 6.8%, that’s got traders screaming “I’m not okay!” louder than a Euphoria episode. This sharp decline is the flagpole of our bearish flag pattern, and it’s a doozy. SPY’s sinking faster than Jack and Rose’s ship, and the bulls are left clinging to the wreckage like there’s no room on the door. 🚢 The Stochastic Oscillator dives into oversold territory (below 20), confirming the bearish momentum is stronger than the Hulk after a double espresso. It’s a bloodbath on Wall Street, and SPY’s the main character in this tragic plot twist. But just when you think the drama’s over, SPY decides to play coy—like a Bachelor contestant who says “I’m not here for the right reasons” but sticks around for the drama anyway. Enter the consolidation phase, aka the “flag” part of the bearish flag pattern. Let’s break it down, shall we? Act 3: The Flag—SPY’s Tease Game Is Stronger Than a Love Island Bombshell From late January to mid-February 2025, SPY enters a consolidation phase that’s more tantalizing than a Love Island bombshell walking into the villa. The price bounces between $566.77 and $577.74, forming a sneaky little upward-sloping channel. It’s like SPY’s playing hard to get, teasing traders with a “Will I rally? Will I crash?” vibe that’s got everyone on edge. The Stochastic Oscillator hovers below 50, like a villa couple who’s “just talking” but definitely not coupled up yet. This consolidation is the “flag” in the bearish flag pattern, and it’s a classic setup. Think of it as SPY taking a quick breather after its big fall, sipping a cocktail by the pool before diving back into the drama. Bearish flags are continuation patterns, meaning the price is likely to keep falling after this little flirt-fest. It’s like when you’re watching The Masked Singer—you know the reveal’s coming, but the suspense is what keeps you glued to the screen. And trust me, you won’t want to miss the next act. Act 4: The Breakout—SPY Says “I’m Out!” Like a RuPaul’s Drag Race Exit Mid-February 2025 arrives, and SPY decides it’s done with the games. The price breaks below the lower trendline of the flag at $566.77, and it’s like watching a RuPaul’s Drag Race queen sashay away after a lip-sync battle: dramatic, fierce, and leaving the bulls in the dust. The breakout confirms the bearish flag pattern, and the bears are strutting their stuff like they just won the crown. 👑 The price doesn’t just dip—it plunges to $546.33 by late March 2025, a further drop of $20.44 (or 3.6%) from the breakout point. The Stochastic Oscillator dives back into oversold territory, confirming the bearish momentum is back with a vengeance. SPY’s basically telling the bulls, “You better work—because I’m not!” as it leaves them gagging on the runway. Let’s talk about the measured move—the price target for this bearish flag. We take the length of the flagpole ($41.21) and project it downward from the breakout point ($566.77). That gives us a target of $525.56. SPY doesn’t quite hit that mark—it bottoms out at $546.33—but it gets close enough to make traders sweat harder than a Chopped contestant with 30 seconds left on the clock. It’s a solid performance, even if it didn’t stick the landing perfectly. Pop Culture Parallels: SPY’s Bearish Flag Is a Reality TV Showdown Let’s take a step back and look at this chart through a pop culture lens, because SPY’s bearish flag is basically a reality TV showdown. The initial uptrend from October to January is the honeymoon phase—think The Bachelor contestants on their first group date, all smiles and champagne. 🥂 The flagpole drop in mid-January is the drama bomb, like when a contestant gets caught kissing someone else in the hot tub. The consolidation phase is the confessional montage, where everyone’s talking smack and plotting their next move. And the breakout? That’s the rose ceremony—SPY’s handing out its final rose to the bears, and the bulls are sent packing with nothing but a suitcase and some tears. Trading Tips: How to Slay This Bearish Flag Like a Drag Race Superstar Now that we’ve had our fun, let’s get down to business. How can you trade this bearish flag like a Drag Race superstar? Here’s the tea, served piping hot: 1. Short the Breakout (Sashay, Don’t Shantay) When SPY broke below the flag at $566.77, that was your cue to short the stock faster than you can say “Sashay away!” A short position here could’ve netted you a $20.44 gain per share as the price dropped to $546.33—enough to buy yourself a new wig for the next challenge. 2. Set a Stop-Loss (Don’t Get Read for Filth) To avoid getting read for filth by a fake-out, set a stop-loss above the flag’s upper trendline at $577.74. That way, if the breakout flops harder than a Drag Race comedy challenge, you’re safe. 3. Target the Measured Move (Go for the Crown) The measured move target of $525.56 was the goal, but SPY stopped at $546.33. That’s still a win—like making it to the top 4 but not snatching the crown. If you’d shorted at the breakout, you’d be serving looks and profits. 4. Watch for a Bounce (Don’t Sleep on the Comeback) As of late March 2025, SPY’s at $546.33, and the Stochastic is oversold. This could mean a short-term bounce is coming, like a Drag Race queen returning for an All-Stars season. Keep an eye on resistance at $566.77 and $577.74—if SPY breaks above those, the bears might be in for a shady twist. The Bigger Picture: Is SPY’s Downtrend the New Black? Let’s zoom out for a hot second. Before this bearish flag, SPY was in a strong uptrend for months, living its best life like a Vogue cover star. This pattern marks a potential trend reversal, like when skinny jeans went out of style and baggy pants became the new black. If the downtrend continues, the next support level could be around $540—or even lower if things get really messy. But here’s the million-dollar question: is this the start of a bigger bear market, or just a temporary dip? It’s like trying to predict the winner of Survivor—nobody knows, but everyone’s got a theory. The Stochastic being oversold suggests a bounce might be near, but the overall trend is still bearish. So, keep your wits about you, because this market’s shadier than a Real Housewives dinner party. Why This Chart Is More Addictive Than a Love Is Blind Binge If you’re still here, you’re officially obsessed—and I don’t blame you! This SPY chart is more addictive than a Love Is Blind binge because it’s got all the elements of a great reality show: drama, suspense, and a cast of characters (the bulls and bears) who can’t stop fighting. The bearish flag is the villain we love to hate, and the price action is the love triangle we can’t stop watching. Plus, trading is a lot like reality TV. You’ve got your highs (the uptrend), your lows (the flagpole drop), and those messy in-between moments (the consolidation). But when the breakout happens, it’s like the finale episode where someone finally gets engaged—or in this case, the bears get their moment in the spotlight. 💍 Final Thoughts: Don’t Miss the Next Episode of SPY’s Reality Show SPY’s bearish flag breakdown is a masterclass in technical analysis, wrapped in a package of drama and sass that’d make even the most stoic trader crack a smile. Whether you’re a Wall Street pro or a newbie just here for the tea, this chart has something for everyone. So, what’s next for SPY? Will it hit that $525.56 target, or will the bulls stage a comeback like a Love Is Blind couple at the altar? Only time will tell, but one thing’s for sure: you won’t want to miss the next episode of this reality show. Keep your eyes on the chart, your finger on the trigger, and your sense of humor intact—because in the world of trading, you’ve got to laugh to keep from crying. 😜 Join the Trading Villa! If you loved this recap of SPY’s bearish flag drama, don’t ghost me like a Love Island ex! Drop a comment with your thoughts—are you shorting SPY, or are you waiting for a bounce? And if you want more trading tea, puns, and reality TV references, hit that follow button faster than you can say “I’m here to make friends.” Let’s spill the tea and make some money together! 🍵
AMEX:SPY
by RoadToAMillionClub
QQQ: Bearish Reversal Likely — Weak Buyer Conviction at Key ResiQQQ may be setting up for a bearish reversal, as several technical confluences suggest the recent rally is losing steam. Despite a short-term bounce, price is approaching a critical decision zone, and buyers appear to lack conviction. 🔺 1. Price Testing Upper Boundary of Descending Channel QQQ has rallied into the upper boundary of the descending channel (yellow lines) that’s been in place since late December. This often acts as resistance—and the price has yet to break above it with strength. 🔵 2. Hitting the Edge of Rising Regression Channel The current price is tagging the upper edge of the blue rising regression channel, an area that has previously triggered sell-offs. Unless there’s a decisive breakout, this could mark a local top. 📉 3. Volume Divergence – Weak Buyer Interest Despite the recent rally attempt, volume is declining, showing clear divergence. This is a warning sign: while price moves up, momentum is fading, and buyers don’t appear to be stepping in strongly. It’s often a precursor to a reversal. 🟩 4. Lower Boundary of Rising Channel Still Intact... For Now Price remains near the long-term rising channel’s lower support, but failure to hold this level could trigger accelerated downside. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: 🔻 Resistance 490.13 – 494.67: This zone is packed with prior support-turned-resistance and coincides with the descending and regression channel boundaries. A rejection here would confirm the bearish thesis. 499.44: A psychological and historical resistance level. Bears would likely pile in if price fails here again. 🔺 Support 488.15: Immediate minor support. Weak defense here could quickly lead to further selling. 477.59: Next key level below current price. If breached, it could validate a more extended correction. 🧠 Summary: QQQ is at a technical crossroads, with several overlapping resistance levels and a clear lack of buying volume. Until buyers show conviction above 494–495, the setup favors a bearish reversal from current levels. 🔔 Watch for a rejection around 490–495 with increasing sell volume for confirmation. 💬 What’s your outlook? Do you see further downside or a breakout brewing?
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by brownian
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 28, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 Core PCE Inflation Data Release: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February is set to be released. Economists anticipate a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a 2.5% year-over-year growth, aligning with previous figures. As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, this data could influence monetary policy decisions.​ 🇺🇸🛍️ Consumer Spending and Income Reports: February's personal income and spending reports are due, with forecasts indicating a 0.4% rise in personal income and a 0.5% increase in personal spending. These figures will provide insights into consumer behavior and economic momentum.​ 🇺🇸🏠 Pending Home Sales Data: The Pending Home Sales Index for February is scheduled for release, with expectations of a 2.0% increase, following a 1.0% rise in January. This index offers a forward-looking perspective on housing market activity.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, March 28: 💵 Personal Income (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.4%​ Previous: +0.9% Measures the change in income received from all sources by consumers.​ 🛍️ Personal Spending (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.5%​ Previous: -0.2%​ Tracks the change in the value of spending by consumers.​ 📈 PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% month-over-month; +2.5% year-over-year​ Previous: +0.3% month-over-month; +2.5% year-over-year​ Reflects changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.​ 🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: +2.0%​ Previous: +1.0%​ Indicates the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao