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SPY potential pullback With USA elections looming, geopolitical instability and wars intensifying in the middle east looking at the price action on SPY, currently retesting 570.00 region after swinging in the past two weeks between 574.00 - 565.00. Technical indicators show a possible buyer exhaustion and now a sellers market with investors taking profits therefore possibly driving price action downward. looking to retest support at 550.00 - 545.00. Our main resistance currently is 570.00 if not broken we could see price move to test support levels and below.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Ruli1690
TLT Daily Falling Wedge Just FormedFalling Wedge When a security's price has been falling over time, a wedge pattern can occur just as the trend makes its final downward move. The trend lines drawn above the highs and below the lows on the price chart pattern can converge as the price slide loses momentum and buyers step in to slow the rate of decline. Before the lines converge, the price may breakout above the upper trend line. When the price breaks the upper trend line, the security is expected to reverse and trend higher. Traders identifying bullish reversal signals would want to look for trades that benefit from the security’s rise in price. NFA. Trade at your own risk. Golden cross 50/200 EMA The golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses over a major long-term moving average to the upside. This happens when the short-term average trends up faster than the long-term average until they cross. This is interpreted by analysts and traders as signaling a definitive upward turn in a market. There are three stages to a golden cross: A downtrend that eventually ends as selling is depleted. A second stage where the shorter moving average crosses up through the longer moving average. Finally, the continuing uptrend, hopefully leading to higher prices.
NASDAQ:TLT
by FlyingWiener69
2
SPY: 2007 vs. 2024 Rate Cut CyclesEconomic Indicators Comparison (2007 vs. 2024): In both 2007 and 2024, several key economic indicators show notable similarities, suggesting the market faces comparable macroeconomic challenges: Unemployment Rate (September 2007: 4.7%; September 2024: 4.2%) US Inflation Rate YoY (September 2007: 2.5%; September 2024: 2.5%) US Housing Starts (September 2007: 1.238M; September 2024: 1.235M) US Leading Economic Activity (September 2007: 100.4; September 2024: 100.4) US Existing Home Sales (September 2007: 4.5M; September 2024: 3.95M) These parallels reinforce the notion that the 2024 market may experience similar stress as 2007 unless significant positive economic developments occur. Overview: The charts and additional data provided give a compelling comparison of two major market cycles: 2007 and 2024. Both cycles show striking similarities in market behavior, particularly surrounding the first rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. We see a top in the S&P 500 (SPX) in July of both years, followed by corrections, recoveries, and rate cuts in September. 2007 Market Behavior: July 17, 2007 - SPX Tops: The S&P 500 peaked in mid-July 2007, reaching new highs as the economy, on the surface, seemed stable. -9.5% Correction: Shortly after the top, the market corrected, declining by 9.5% in response to growing concerns about the subprime mortgage crisis. Full Recovery: The market briefly recovered as investors expected the Federal Reserve to step in with supportive policies. September 18, 2007 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in September 2007, sparking optimism that monetary easing could prevent further economic deterioration. Market Collapse: Despite the rate cuts, the crisis deepened, leading to a full-scale market collapse as the global financial crisis unfolded. 2024 Market Behavior (So Far): July 17, 2024 - SPX Tops: Once again, we see the S&P 500 peak in mid-July 2024, a period marked by inflation concerns and economic uncertainty. -8.6% Correction: Similar to 2007, the market corrected by 8.6%, driven by fears of a potential economic slowdown and the anticipation of monetary policy adjustments. Full Recovery: The market saw a brief recovery, as investors anticipated rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures. September 18, 2024 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates on September 18, 2024, echoing the 2007 scenario. However, whether the market will collapse, stabilize, or recover remains to be seen. Comparative Analysis: Topping Patterns: Both 2007 and 2024 show a clear topping pattern in July, followed by sharp corrections and subsequent rate cuts in September. This parallel highlights the cyclical nature of market reactions to monetary policy. Rate Cut Effects: Historically, the first rate cut has not always led to an immediate market recovery. In 2007, despite initial optimism, the market eventually collapsed as the underlying economic problems, specifically the subprime crisis, worsened. The question now is whether the 2024 market will follow the same path, especially considering ongoing inflation and potential economic stagnation. Key Observations: Corrections and Recoveries: Both markets experienced similar corrections post-top. The 8.6% correction in 2024 mirrors the 9.5% drop in 2007, showing that investor sentiment and market behavior can repeat under similar macroeconomic pressures. Rate Cut Timing: In both years, rate cuts followed periods of market instability, with the hope that monetary easing would stabilize the economy. However, uncertainty looms in 2024, as it is yet unclear whether these cuts will prevent a deeper recession or lead to further volatility. Potential for Market Collapse in 2024: While the 2007 market collapse was driven by the subprime mortgage crisis, the 2024 market faces different challenges, such as inflationary pressures, geopolitical instability, and evolving global trade dynamics. There remains a risk that the 2024 market could experience a sharp downturn if these issues worsen.
AMEX:SPYShort
by alcoholic-semen-thrower
SPY: A Critical Inflection Point! (D&W charts)In our last analysis last week, we had already identified a critical support point around $565, which is once again acting as a support, as expected. However, in the light of new evidence, we have to update the central point of the idea, and draw up possible scenarios for us to work on next. The link to our prevous analysis on SPY is below this post, as usual. Daily Chart (Left): Previous Top at $574.71: This level represents the recent all-time high, which has become a point of resistance after the price failed to maintain above it. Current Support at $565.16: The price is testing the $565.16 support area, which was previously a resistance level. It is now, for the second time, a crucial level to hold for the continuation of the uptrend. This is the most important inflection point for the SPY. 21-day EMA Support: The price is hovering around the 21-day EMA, adding more significance to this support zone. A daily close below this line could indicate a deeper pullback. Weekly Chart (Right): Possible Evening Star Pattern: The recent weekly candles form a potential evening star pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal signal, especially after a strong uptrend. This pattern is characterized by a small-bodied candle (potential reversal sign) followed by a bearish candle. Key Support Areas: The first support to watch is $565.16, aligning with the daily timeframe, followed by a more significant support at $539.44 if the evening star pattern confirms. Trend Continuation: If the pattern fails to confirm, a weekly close back above $574.71 would invalidate the bearish scenario and signal strength in the current trend. Conclusion: The SPY chart is at a critical juncture. The daily chart shows support holding at $565.16, which is a critical support level and inflection point for the SPY, as a break below this line could trigger a sharper sell-off. The potential evening star pattern on the weekly chart adds bearish pressure, and we should closely monitor the $565.16 level for further clues. If the evening star confirms, the $539.44 support could come into play as a downside target. For bullish continuation, holding above $565.16 and reclaiming the $574.71 level are essential. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
AMEX:SPY
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-3 : Reversal Rally DayOver the past few days, I've posted 4-5+ videos highlighting my SPY Cycle Patterns and how these help traders plan and prepare for future price action/trades. Today's Reversal Rally pattern should prompt a moderately strong upward price move in the SPY/QQQ. I'm expecting the SPY to attempt to rally up into the 572-573 range today - maybe a bit higher. The QQQ may attempt to rally up into the 487-489 range today. Gold and Silver are working through a Temporary Bottom pattern today. This pattern usually starts with a moderate downward price move (setting up a base) and then rolls upward. So, I expect Gold to attempt to move back up to the 2680-2685 level today, and I expect Silver to rally up to the 32.12-32.25 level today. BTCUSD is stuck in the Excess Phase Peak setup's downward (rolling base) pattern. This rolling base will likely take more than 2-4 days to resolve before we'll start to see BTCUSD move into the FLAGGING stage of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. This suggests BTCUSD will struggle over the next 4 to 7 days before resolving into a moderate uptrend (the FLAGGING stage) - leading to a make-or-break price move sometime near October 15-19 or so. That make-or-break move could be huge depending on how BTCUSD resolves the end of the FLAGGING phase. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
$SPY October 3, 2024AMEX:SPY October 3, 2024 15 Minutes. As expected, AMEX:SPY was in sideways sort out the two long bars of 1st October. For the fall 574.38 to 565.27 AMEX:SPY had retraced 61.88 around 570 levels. For the rise 565.27 to 569.9 AMEX:SPY had again retraced 61.8% of that move to 567 levels. Now AMEX:SPY made a low at 565.27 and we can see oscillator divergence. Hence this number is important to hold now. If we draw an extension for the move 567.27 to 569.9 to 567.58, we can see 570 - 572 as initial target. At the moment AMEX:SPY below 100 and 200 averages in 15 minutes. Hence a long only above 571 with the close of bar near the top. On downside I expect strong support around 562 563 levels being 200 averages in 60 Minutes time frame. So, we are stuck between 563 to 571 today most probably for a buy above or sell below trade. I expect to have a trade tomorrow, Friday.
AMEX:SPY
by RiderTrader
For tomorrow's SPY Technical Analyst (October 3, 2024)The market sentiment is leaning towards bearish following recent weakness due to a slight pullback in the broader market. Currently, SPY is trading around $568 with some volatility. Technical Analysis: Support Levels: Immediate support is seen around $565, which was tested recently. If it breaks below this, $560 could be the next significant support level. Resistance Levels: On the upside, resistance is around $570, which also aligns with where sellers have been active. Breaking above this level could target the next zone around $574. Price Action & Trend: There seems to be consolidation between $565 and $570. A move above $570 could indicate bullish continuation, while a drop below $565 may signal further downside​( markets.businessinsider.com). Entry/Exit Points: Potential Entry: Look for a bounce off $565 for a long position, but watch for confirmation of a strong support hold (e.g., candlestick patterns like a bullish engulfing on the 1-hour chart). Potential Exit: If going long, target $570 and then $574. For shorts, breaking below $565 could aim for $560 as an exit target. Risk Management: Keep stop losses tight around $562 to minimize downside risks if the market moves against your position.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
TMF Swing Trade and Long-Term HoldConfluence 1: On the 4H Chart, TMF has been respecting the upper channel. Back on 8/1, TMF broke out of the resistance trendline and then re-tested it on 8/8. That trendline is now acting as support which we recently bounced off of. Confluence 2: On 9/24, TMF touched into the fair value gap highlighted in gray. From there, we showed some signs of bullishness. This is where I initiated a starter position in TMF. Confluence 3: On 9/26, we came back to sweep liquidity (stop out initial longs) and tap into the order block (the red shooting star candle before the big green candle) on 9/3. On the Daily chart, we see the trendline was not broken (did not close below, only wicked through) Confluence 4: RSI also hit 25 (<30) on the 4H on 9/24, and a bullish MACD crossover occurred on 9/26. Take Profit : At the top of the channel AKA upper trendline which is currently acting as resistance. I plan to trim some of my position and begin to sell covered calls to generate income. Stop Loss : A close below the lower trendline in the low 50s. If the middle support trendline is broken, I will add to my position. If you are looking to swing trade this (not long-term hold), I would exit if we close below this line at around 56-57. From a macro standpoint - there is economic and geopolitical uncertainty due to Middle East tensions. There are several factors that could put us into a recession, so TMF, TLT, or BND are good holds to hedge a equity-heavy portfolio. TMF is 3x leveraged so please do your own due diligence before trading this! My positions: [ ADDED TODAY ] 100 shares of TMF @ 59.70 100 shares TMF @ 57.61 100 shares TLT @ 98.61 Sold 2 Cash-Secured Puts for 10/18 @ 57 This is in total (including CSP collateral) makes up roughly 5-10% of my portfolio.
AMEX:TMFLong
by TaiwaneseTrader
1
MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF)... Time to BUY? YES!!The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF offers equal weight exposure to the “Magnificent Seven” stocks – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. MAGS is the first-ever ETF to track the Magnificent Seven. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NASDAQ:MAGSLong
by RT_Money
MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF)... Time to BUY? MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) Weekly TF shows price has pulled back into the +FVG after displacing above the intermediate swing high, completing an External to Internal move. That high intersects the +FVG nicely as confluence of support. Daily TF shows a Daily +FVG nested within the Weekly +FVG, serving as more confluence of support. The idea here is if the +FVG holds, price will seek the buy side liquidity highlighted. This would be an Internal to External liquidity movement. The local high at **48.00** is nice round number to draw price. **50.00** is the longer term draw on liquidity. *The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF offers equal weight exposure to the “Magnificent Seven” stocks – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. MAGS is the first-ever ETF to track the Magnificent Seven.
NASDAQ:MAGSLong
by RT_Money
XLE: Rising Wave PatternTechnical analysis chart of the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), with Elliott wave analysis overlaid. Let's break down the analysis based on the chart and labels: Overall Analysis: The chart suggests a bullish trend for XLE, based on the Elliott wave structure. It indicates that we have completed wave ((4)) of wave V and are now in the unfolding wave ((5)). Within wave ((5)), we have started wave (1), and are currently in wave (3) of (1). Wave Counts and Labels: V Red: This represents the fifth and final wave of a larger Elliott wave pattern. ((4)) Black: The fourth corrective wave within V. ((5)) Black: The fifth and final impulsive wave within V. (1) Blue: The first impulsive wave within ((5)). 1 Red: The first wave within (1). 2 Red: The second corrective wave within (1). 3 Red: The third impulsive wave within (1) (currently unfolding). Price Projection and Invalidation as per Waves: Bullish Projection: The chart suggests a potential target of 105 for wave ((5)). Invalidation Level: A break below 83.02 would invalidate the current bullish analysis. Educational Notes: Elliott wave theory is a technical analysis tool that identifies patterns in price movements based on a series of five waves. Impulsive waves (1, 3, 5) move in the direction of the overall trend, while corrective waves (2, 4) move in the opposite direction. Wave labels use brackets to indicate different levels of analysis. For example, ((5)) is a larger wave than (1). Colors are often used to visually differentiate between different waves and patterns. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
AMEX:XLELong
by RK_Chaarts
SPY Advanced Analysis by Deno Trading: What’s Next for the S&P 5Let’s dive into the SPY analysis across multiple timeframes, looking for key insights on where the market could be headed. I’ll break it down step by step so it’s easier to follow along. 30-Minute Chart Overview: Current Price Action: We’re sitting around $569, and what’s really interesting is that SPY has been consolidating after hitting a recent high of $570. The market is in a bit of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and we’re right at a pivotal level. Key Resistance: The $570 - $574 zone is a major resistance level. Every time we’ve tested it recently, we’ve seen the market pull back, indicating strong selling pressure. This zone is critical, and we’ll need to break above it with volume to see any further upside. Support: On the downside, the first level of support is around $565, followed by $561, which aligns with the 50-period moving average on the 30-minute chart. If the price breaks below this level, we could see further downside pressure. 4-Hour Chart Insights: Moving Average Support: On the 4-hour chart, we’re seeing strong support at $561, where the 50-period moving average has been acting as a floor for recent price action. As long as SPY holds this level, the bulls still have a chance to regain control. Potential Bullish Scenario: If the price holds $561 and pushes higher, a break above $574 could take us to new highs for the year, potentially testing levels above $580. Bearish Case: If we fail to hold $561, I’d expect a move down towards $552, where the next level of support lies. This level has acted as both resistance and support in the past, making it an important area to watch. Daily Chart Breakdown: Longer-Term Uptrend: The daily chart shows that SPY is still in a broader uptrend, holding above the 200-day moving average, currently sitting around $552. This level has provided a solid base throughout the year, so as long as we remain above it, the long-term trend remains bullish. Current Resistance: The $570 - $574 resistance zone is evident here as well. This level marks the highs from September, and breaking it would signal the market’s willingness to push towards $580 and beyond. Weekly Chart for Perspective: Larger Timeframe: The weekly chart tells a similar story. We’re hovering around $570, right at a major resistance level. The 50-week moving average, sitting around $512, is well below the current price, suggesting we still have a cushion before a significant breakdown would occur. What to Watch: If we break $574 on the weekly chart, we could see a massive bullish continuation. However, failure to break this level could lead to a bigger pullback to $550 or even $530 in the weeks ahead. Conclusion & What I’m Watching: Bullish Breakout Scenario: If SPY breaks above $574 with strong volume, we could see a rally towards $580 or higher. This would confirm that buyers are back in control. Bearish Rejection Scenario: On the flip side, failure to break this resistance could lead to a pullback towards $561 or even $552. If we break below those levels, the bearish case strengthens, and we could see further downside. Final Thoughts: Right now, we’re at a pivotal point. The next few trading sessions will determine whether we’re gearing up for a breakout or a more significant pullback. I’m watching the $570 - $574 level closely for signs of either bullish continuation or rejection.
AMEX:SPY
by Deno_Trading
$XLE Downtrend I have wanted to be bullish on the energy sector, but this chart tells me it is in a downtrend. We have a series of lower highs and lower lows. There seems to be some horizontal support around $86. However, that has been violated on the last lower low. I am terrible at shorting stocks, so I’ll stay on the sidelines unless or until the AMEX:XLE puts in a higher low AND breaks above the upper downtrend line. All TBD. (I took a trade on AMEX:XLE on Sept 16 when it both broke above the horizontal resistance line AND moved above the low set on Aug 5th. I closed it yesterday for a 3% gain as I could see it struggling to get up and over the DT Line.) Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
AMEX:XLE
by jaxdog
SPY is about to complete its blow-off topThe current atmosphere is of extreme fear. However VIX has not spiked as much as anticipated and a significant amount of assets are either completely oversold or seemingly getting ready to short squeeze (see GME, DJT, BTC). Looking at the chart, the top also seems incomplete. US elections are forthcoming, and global M2 supply is rising. I cannot currently see the bear case yet, but with the amount of shorts and puts that have accumulated in a panic-driven fashion during last week any upside move would lead to immediate and violent upside continuation. Extreme R:R for those who dare. Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
AMEX:SPYLong
by variable_not_defined
1