Bullish Setup for QQQ: Price Targets and Key Levels for Next Wee
- Key Insights: QQQ exhibits strong bullish momentum, supported by technical
setups, including cup-and-handle formations and golden crosses. Buyer
sentiment remains robust, driven by tariff pauses on tech and chip stocks
and a broader recovery in indices. Sustaining above key support at 444 will
be critical for maintaining upward momentum, while geopolitical volatility
should be monitored closely.
- Price Targets:
- Next Week Targets: T1 = 465, T2 = 478
- Stop Levels: S1 = 436, S2 = 421
- Recent Performance: QQQ has rallied 7.5% in its latest bullish phase and is
currently trading at 446.18, outperforming major indices like SPY and ES.
Short-term activity reveals consistent gains above last week’s and
yesterday’s closing prices, underscoring the strength of buyer sentiment.
- Expert Analysis: Technical indicators such as stochastic oscillators, golden
crosses, and Fibonacci levels point toward sustained upside potential.
However, experts urge caution due to heightened geopolitical risks and
inflation concerns. Price action around the 444 support level will validate
the reliability of QQQ's bullish case.
- News Impact: Positive catalysts include a tariff pause on tech and
semiconductor stocks, which benefits QQQ’s key holdings in the technology
sector. Additionally, broad market recovery and renewed optimism have
amplified fund flows into the NASDAQ 100. However, potential downside risks
stem from trade tensions and inflationary pressures, making QQQ vulnerable
to sudden volatility despite its promising technical structure.
ETF market
IWM CIWM and the overall market are in a decent uptrend coming off crazy lows. with trump coming out with news every minute this makes swinging calls risky but i feel like i don't wanna pass up this opportunity. so I'm gonna buy IWM $200Cs for may 16 i would be taking partial profits just below those trend lines. i would have a sell for a loss if a daily candle close outside the channel
if u want low risk you could do it based of the 2H candle
Spy Target $500I'm Basically Taking A Swing Trade All The Way Down To the $500 Target with a stop loss of about $545ish most likely being as stubborn as I am Probably Load up more at that price lol, if we even see that price to be honest but in all reality my absolute Stop out will be $547-$549. I Will be updating this post throughout the week... And if you need more advice Ill be here as always and check out some of my New Free Indicators on TradingView to help maximize your returns and as always Goodluck and safe trades
The Oompa Loompas are here to WORKI get it, you're scared....But listen up, by June/July, we will be at all time highs. What Trump gave, was a signal that he wont let the stock market sink....To him, the stock market is the economy. It is not though, but to him, thats what it is. That was enough for wall street to buy buy buy.....knowing that Trump will do what he needs to do so the stock market doesnt collapse.
SPY at a Crossroad: Gamma Tug of War Into Next Week🔍 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
* Trend Channel: SPY is trading in a rising wedge formation. Price is currently nearing the top of the ascending channel with a breakout attempt forming from the wedge compression zone.
* Structure: Strong push off the 510s, now challenging key resistance near $548, which aligns with the top channel and GEX walls.
* Support Zones:
* $526 (previous breakout retest + HVL)
* $509 and $485 (key breakdown structure if momentum fades)
* Resistance Levels:
* $548.26 (local horizontal level and wedge top)
* $555-$560 (Gamma wall / 3rd CALL wall)
* Volume: Buying pressure is fading slightly as we approach key resistance, signaling a need for a catalyst to continue upward.
* RSI: Neutral to bullish, still has room to push above 60 if trend continues.
🧠 Options Sentiment – GEX Insights
* Highest Positive GEX Zone: $555-$560 – A significant CALL wall where market makers may resist further upside due to hedging dynamics.
* Put Support: $526 is the HVL and $520-$526 shows the strongest negative GEX cluster — meaning bulls must defend this zone.
* Max Pain Pivot: The $540 strike is sandwiched between major PUT and CALL hedging zones, meaning increased volatility is likely around here.
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 67.8 – Slightly elevated, indicating traders are paying up for protection.
* PUTs 132.6% – Extreme PUT pressure. This could either fuel a gamma squeeze if we stay above $540, or lead to a violent flush if we break $526.
💡 Trade Setups & Scenarios
Bullish Case:
If SPY holds above $534-$536:
* Entry: $536 breakout
* Target: $548 → $555 → $560
* Stop: Below $526
* Strategy: Consider vertical debit CALL spreads (e.g., 535/550 or 540/560) for low-risk directional play. If IV climbs more, look at calendar CALL spreads.
Bearish Case:
If SPY loses $534 with momentum:
* Entry: $532 break or rejection from $540
* Target: $526 → $509
* Stop: Above $540
* Strategy: PUT debit spreads (e.g., 530/515), or bearish butterflies around $520 if expecting a pin into next week.
🧠 My Take
SPY is wedging at a sensitive GEX zone. Gamma walls are clearly defined on both sides. Price holding above 534 opens the door to a squeeze, but rejection at $540-$548 likely brings sellers. Watch how price reacts around $536-$540 — this is the battlefield.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
QQQ Coiling for a Breakout? Critical Zone Approaching📈 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
QQQ is riding within a clean ascending channel since the April 9th reversal. The recent candles are forming higher lows and testing upper resistance near 454.00, with bullish volume stepping in during Thursday’s session. RSI is steadily climbing toward the 60–65 zone but not overbought yet, leaving room for an upward breakout.
* Key Resistance: 468.31 (top of the channel + GEX wall)
* Support Zones: 435.00 (put wall), 420.00 (gamma gap zone)
Current consolidation around 454 suggests the market is deciding whether to push into the heavy call wall above or reject toward the lower channel boundary.
🔍 GEX (Gamma Exposure) + Options Sentiment
The options data offers a clear battleground:
* GEX Resistance: The highest positive NET GEX is at 460–469, aligning with the 2nd and 3rd CALL Walls. This creates a strong gamma magnet but also potential resistance.
* GEX Support: Strong PUT Support around 435, confirmed by -42.99% GEX Support Wall.
* Options Oscillator: Extreme PUT bias at 83%. This could be positioning for protection or fuel for a short squeeze if price breaks higher.
* IVR: 68.4 (Elevated) | IVx Avg: 46.8
This suggests high premium—buyers of options are paying up for volatility.
📊 Trade Outlooks
Bullish Scenario (Breakout Above 455–460):
* 📈 Entry: 455–456 breakout with confirmation
* 🎯 Target 1: 460
* 🎯 Target 2: 468
* ⛔️ Stop Loss: Below 448
* 💡 Suggested Option: 460C or 465C (0DTE or 4/17), tight spreads required due to elevated IVR
Bearish Scenario (Rejection at 455 and breakdown)
* 📉 Entry: Below 450 on strong red candle
* 🎯 Target 1: 445
* 🎯 Target 2: 435 (GEX support)
* ⛔️ Stop Loss: Over 456
* 💡 Suggested Option: 445P or 440P (with defined risk, preferably spreads)
📌 Conclusion
QQQ is sitting in a high-tension coil—either we break above 455–460 and see a gamma squeeze to 468, or options flows pull us back to the 445–435 support zone. With IV elevated and options heavily tilted toward PUTs, watch for a potential contrarian breakout if bulls step in.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 14–17, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🏦 Major Financial Earnings Reports: This week, investors will focus on earnings from prominent financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup. These reports will provide insights into the financial sector's health amid recent market volatility.
📺 Tech and Healthcare Earnings: Key tech and healthcare companies such as Netflix, TSMC, and UnitedHealth Group are also scheduled to release earnings. Analysts will scrutinize these reports for indications of sector performance and future outlooks.
🏠 Housing Market Indicators: The release of housing starts data and a homebuilder confidence survey will shed light on the housing sector's response to recent economic conditions and tariff implementations.
🇪🇺 European Central Bank Meeting (April 17): The ECB is expected to address recent tariff developments and may announce interest rate decisions in response to economic pressures.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 14:
🗣️ Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker Speaks (6:00 PM ET): Insights into regional economic conditions and monetary policy perspectives may be provided.
🗣️ Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks (7:40 PM ET): Remarks may offer perspectives on economic developments and policy considerations.
📅 Tuesday, April 15:
📈 Import Price Index (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.1%
Previous: +0.4%
Measures the change in the price of imported goods, indicating inflationary pressures.
🏭 Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -10.0
Previous: -20.0
Assesses manufacturing activity in New York State, providing early insights into industrial performance.
📅 Wednesday, April 16:
🛍️ Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +1.2%
Previous: +0.2%
Indicates consumer spending trends, a primary driver of economic growth.
🏭 Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET):
Forecast: -0.2%
Previous: +0.7%
Measures the output of factories, mines, and utilities, reflecting industrial sector health.
🏠 Homebuilder Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 38
Previous: 39
Gauges builder sentiment in the housing market, indicating construction activity trends.
📅 Thursday, April 17:
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 223,000
Previous: --
Reports the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, reflecting labor market conditions.
🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 1.41 million
Previous: 1.5 million
Tracks the number of new residential construction projects begun, indicating housing market strength.
🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 3.7
Previous: 12.5
Measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region, providing insights into sector health.
🏦 European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: The ECB will announce its interest rate decision, with markets anticipating a potential cut in response to tariff impacts.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysi
ETF GLL Ultra Short: 11.04.25/11.85 USDAfter a long run over the years, Gold climbed up to 3200 USD/oz.
The ETF GLL Ultra Short, which is leveraged by factor 2, seems to reach a bottom.
Reasons for bottom
- traded Volume very high
- excellent Elliott-wave structure in several time periods
Fear factor will be reduced: Toll Bomb will not exploded. Mr. Trump seems to go very elastic in these theme and will give time for negotions.
All in All: Gold very clear for an first correction towards 2800-2900, later on 2500 USD/oZ
Quantum's KWEB Trading Guide 4/13/25Analysis:
Post-Close Options Activity (April 11):
Data: System reports 469.32K contracts traded on April 11, with puts at 10.99% (calls ~89%). High call volume at $31/$32 strikes suggests bullish bets.
Interpretation: Call-heavy flow indicates retail/institutional optimism, likely targeting a sweep above $31.35 (weekly high). Potential for a liquidity sweep trapping longs, aligning with ICT/SMT reversal.
RSI (14) Level and Trend:
Estimate: Daily RSI ~55 (neutral-bullish), based on April 11 close ($30.52, +2.97% from $29.62). Uptrend from April 8 low ($27.95) but below March 17 peak ($38.401) avoids overbought.
Interpretation: RSI supports bullish setups (above 50), with room for upside before resistance (~70). A sweep to $31.50 could push RSI higher, signaling OTE retracement.
Anonymized X Post Insights (April 11–13):
Summary: Posts highlight Chinese tech optimism (e.g., DeepSeek AI, consumer spending), tempered by tariff fears (Trump’s 125% threats). Some speculate on KWEB breaking $31, others note volatility risks.
Interpretation: Mixed sentiment leans bullish, with chatter about AI and stimulus driving buy-side interest. Tariff uncertainty suggests potential sell-side sweeps if news escalates.
Potential Reversals/Catalysts:
Liquidity Sweeps: Call-heavy options and X speculation point to a buy-side sweep above $31.35 (W-High), trapping retail longs before an OTE reversal to $30.00 (HVN).
Institutional Positioning: High call OI suggests dealers hedging bullish bets, but tariff risks could trigger smart money to fade retail.
Catalysts: Retail Sales (April 15) or tariff relief news could spike KWEB, while escalation could drive sell-side volatility.
Why: Sentiment aligns with ICT/SMT, where bullish retail chatter sets up sweeps, and smart money reverses at OTE. Neutral-bullish RSI and call volume support a setup.
Action: Log sentiment as neutral-bullish, expect sweep above $31 or drop to $29 on tariff news. Highlight for video: “KWEB’s call-heavy buzz could trap retail—watch for a smart money reversal.”
Tariff Impact
Assessment: Severe
Exposure:
KWEB’s holdings (e.g., PDD, JD.com, Tencent) rely on China’s internet economy, with significant supply chain and consumer exposure to U.S.-China trade. Tariffs (e.g., 125% proposed) raise costs for e-commerce and tech exports, hurting revenues.
Example: PDD (Temu) faces U.S. import duties, squeezing margins; JD.com’s logistics chain is tariff-sensitive.
Current Policy (April 13):
Context: Trump’s April 10 statement escalates tariffs to 125% on Chinese goods, with no relief confirmed by April 13. Web reports (Reuters, April 4) note market volatility from tariff fears, impacting KWEB’s April 8 low ($27.95).
Impact: Severe, as KWEB’s ETF structure amplifies holdings’ tariff pain (e.g., Alibaba, Tencent ADRs). Sentiment sours on escalation, driving sell-side sweeps.
Tariff Relief Potential:
Scenario: A 90-day pause or negotiation (rumored on X, inconclusive) could lift KWEB +3–5% ($31.50–$32.00), as seen in past relief rallies (e.g., February 2025, +1.6% on pause news).
Fundamentals: Relief boosts consumer spending on KWEB’s holdings, supporting bullish MSS. Without relief, bearish pressure persists.
AMT Tie-In: Tariff news creates imbalances (LVN breaks), with price seeking HVNs (e.g., $30.00) post-volatility.
Why: Severe tariff exposure makes KWEB sensitive to trade news, fueling sweeps (buy-side on relief, sell-side on escalation), per ICT/SMT.
Action: Rate tariff impact severe, monitor April 14 for negotiation updates. Video: “Tariffs could sink KWEB, but relief might spark a sweep to $32—stay sharp.”
News/Catalysts
Current (April 11, 2025)
Closing Price:
System Data: KWEB closed at $30.52 (currentPrice), +2.97% from prevDayClose ($29.62).
Verification: Matches April 11 high ($30.63), low ($29.41), open ($30.12).
Drivers:
Positive: Call-heavy options (89% calls) and AI buzz (DeepSeek, X posts) drove the rally. Web reports note Chinese tech resilience despite tariffs.
Negative: Tariff fears capped gains, with X posts citing Trump’s 125% threat as a drag.
Sector Trends: China ETFs rose (e.g., MCHI +2.1%, April 11), supporting KWEB’s move.
Why: Options flow and AI speculation fueled bullish momentum, but tariffs restrained breakout above $31.
Action: Highlight $30.52 close, +2.97%, driven by calls and AI. Video: “KWEB jumped 3% on AI hype, but tariffs loom large.”
Upcoming (Week of April 14–18)
Events:
April 15, Retail Sales (8:30 AM): Measures U.S. consumer spending, impacting KWEB’s e-commerce holdings (PDD, JD.com).
April 16–18, Tariff Talks: Potential U.S.-China negotiations, per X chatter (inconclusive).
Ongoing, China Stimulus: Rumored fiscal measures could lift Chinese tech, no date confirmed.
Predictions:
Bullish (+3%, ~$31.50): Strong Retail Sales (+0.5% MoM) or stimulus news boosts e-commerce, sweeping buy-side liquidity ($31.35).
Bearish (-3%, ~$29.50): Weak Retail Sales (-0.2% MoM) or tariff escalation triggers sell-side sweep ($29.41).
Neutral (±1%, $30.20–$30.80): Mixed data or no tariff news keeps KWEB near $30.00 (HVN).
Why: Catalysts drive displacement (sweeps to OHLC/LVNs), setting up OTE entries, per AMT/ICT.
Action: Set alerts for Retail Sales (April 15), monitor X for tariff updates. Video: “Retail Sales could push KWEB to $32 or drop it to $29—big week ahead.”
Technical Setup
Multi-Timeframe Analysis (Adjusted to April 11 Close, $30.52)
Weekly Chart
HVN (High Volume Node):
Level: $30.00 (POC, near W-Open $29.59, D-Close $30.52).
Role: Support, price consolidated March 24–April 11 ($29–$31).
Stance: Bullish (price above HVN, defending $30.00).
LVN (Low Volume Node):
Level: $31.50 (near W-High $31.35, April 4).
Role: Fast-move zone, price dropped post-$31.35 (April 4–8).
Stance: Neutral (price below LVN, potential sweep target).
EMA Trend:
Status: 8-week ($31.50) < 13-week ($32.00) < 48-week ($33.50), downtrend but flattening.
Stance: Neutral (price below EMAs, but $30.52 tests 8-week).
RSI (14):
Level: ~55 (neutral-bullish, up from 45 at $27.95, April 8).
Stance: Bullish (>50, room to 70).
MACD:
Status: Above signal, nearing zero (bullish crossover April 10).
Stance: Bullish (gaining momentum).
Bollinger Bands:
Status: Price at midline ($30.50), bands narrowing.
Stance: Neutral (breakout pending).
Donchian Channels:
Status: Above midline ($29.65, W-Low to W-High).
Stance: Bullish (breakout potential).
Williams %R:
Level: ~-40 (neutral, not overbought).
Stance: Bullish (>-50, rising).
ADR (Average Daily Range):
Status: Expanding (~3%, $0.90/day).
Stance: Bullish (volatility supports moves).
VWAP:
Status: Above VWAP (~$30.20, April 11).
Stance: Bullish (buyers control).
ICT/SMC:
MSS: Bearish (lower highs from $38.401, March 17, but higher low $27.95, April 8, signals potential shift).
Trend: Neutral (consolidation $29–$31, testing W-High $31.35).
Summary: Neutral-bullish, price at HVN ($30.00) with LVN ($31.50) as sweep target. Indicators favor upside, but MSS needs confirmation.
1-Hour Chart
Support/Resistance:
Support: $29.41 (D-Low, April 11), aligns with W-Open ($29.59), HVN ($30.00).
Resistance: $30.63 (D-High, April 11), near LVN ($31.50), W-High ($31.35).
Stance: Bullish (price above support, testing resistance).
RSI (14):
Level: ~60 (bullish, rising from 50 at $29.41).
Stance: Bullish (>50, not overbought).
MACD:
Status: Above signal, positive histogram.
Stance: Bullish (momentum building).
Bollinger Bands:
Status: Price near upper band ($30.60).
Stance: Bullish (breakout potential).
Donchian Channels:
Status: Above midline ($30.02).
Stance: Bullish (trend strength).
Williams %R:
Level: ~-30 (bullish, not overbought).
Stance: Bullish (>-50).
VWAP:
Status: Above VWAP (~$30.30, intraday April 11).
Stance: Bullish (buyers dominate).
ICT/SMC:
Buy-Side Liquidity: Above $30.63 (D-High), $31.35 (W-High), LVN ($31.50). Retail stops cluster here.
Sell-Side Liquidity: Below $29.41 (D-Low), $27.95 (W-Low/M-Low).
OB: Bullish OB at $29.80–$30.00 (April 10 consolidation, demand zone, near HVN $30.00).
FVG: Bullish FVG at $30.00–$30.20 (April 11 gap, unfilled, aligns with D-Open $30.12).
OTE: Fib 61.8%–78.6% from $29.41 (low) to $30.63 (high) = $30.05–$30.15 (overlaps OB/FVG/HVN).
Displacement: Potential impulsive move to $31.50 (LVN) or $29.00 (below D-Low) on Retail Sales or tariff news.
Summary: Bullish bias, with OTE ($30.05–$30.15) as entry zone post-sweep, supported by OB/FVG/HVN.
10-Minute Chart
Closing Move (April 11):
Status: Rallied to $30.52, closed near high ($30.63), strong volume.
Stance: Bullish (buyers pushed close).
EMA Direction:
Status: 8-EMA ($30.45) > 13-EMA ($30.40) > 48-EMA ($30.30), uptrend.
Stance: Bullish (EMAs rising).
RSI (14):
Level: ~65 (bullish, cooling from 70).
Stance: Bullish (>50, not overbought).
MACD:
Status: Above zero, bullish crossover.
Stance: Bullish (momentum intact).
VWAP:
Status: Above VWAP (~$30.40, late April 11).
Stance: Bullish (buyers control).
ICT/SMC:
Liquidity Sweep: Wick to $30.63 (8:50 AM, April 11) tested buy-side, no clear rejection yet.
Retracement: Potential retrace to $30.05–$30.15 (OTE) if sweep completes (e.g., April 14, 8:00 AM).
Entry Signal: Pin bar or engulfing at OTE (e.g., $30.10, 10-minute candle).
Summary: Bullish, awaiting sweep above $30.63 or $31.35, retrace to OTE for entry.
Options Data
Analysis:
GEX (Gamma Exposure):
Status: Positive GEX at $31 strike (high call OI), neutral at $30.
Impact: Dealers buy stock to hedge calls, supporting $31 pin or slight lift to $31.50.
Explanation: Positive GEX stabilizes price near high OI strikes, aligning with LVN ($31.50) sweep.
Stance: Neutral-bullish (pinning likely, breakout possible).
DEX (Delta Exposure):
Status: High call delta (+0.3, 89% call volume).
Impact: Bullish pressure, as dealers hedge calls by buying KWEB.
Explanation: Call-heavy delta fuels upside momentum, supporting buy-side sweep.
Stance: Bullish.
IV (Implied Volatility):
Status: Moderate (~25%, vs. 20–35% norm for KWEB).
Impact: Steady swings ($0.50–$1.00/day), good for ATM/OTM calls.
Explanation: Moderate IV balances premium cost and volatility, ideal for OTE entries.
Stance: Bullish (volatility supports options).
OI (Open Interest):
Status: Call-heavy (65% calls at $31, 20% at $32, 15% puts at $30).
Impact: Momentum toward $31–$32, potential pin at $31 (high OI).
Explanation: High call OI marks targets (W-High $31.35, LVN $31.50), puts at $30 guard HVN.
Stance: Bullish (calls drive upside).
Cem Karsan’s Application and Weekly Trading Breakdown:
Gamma: High at $31 (pinning risk), low at $32 (breakout potential).
Vanna: Rising IV (25% to 30% on Retail Sales) lifts calls, dealers buy KWEB, pushing to $31.50.
Charm: Near OPEX (April 18), $31 calls hold delta if ITM, spiking volatility April 17–18.
Volatility Skew: Call skew (higher IV for $32 vs. $30) favors upside breakouts.
Weekly OI (Exp. April 18): 65% calls at $31, 20% at $32. Pinning likely at $31 unless Retail Sales sparks breakout to $32.
Options Strategy:
Trade: Buy $31 calls at OTE ($30.10, April 14, 8:50 AM), premium ~$0.50.
Exit: $31.50 (W-High/LVN, premium ~$0.90), profit $0.40.
Stop: Below OB ($29.80, premium ~$0.20), risk $0.30.
R:R: 1.33:1 (adjust to 2:1 with partial exit).
ICT/SMC Tie-In: Enter post-sweep ($31.35), retrace to OTE ($30.10), target $31.50.
Vanna:
Status: IV rise (25% to 30%) amplifies calls, dealers buy KWEB.
Impact: Bullish lift to $31–$31.50, aligns with LVN sweep.
Explanation: Vanna boosts delta near high OI, supporting OTE reversal.
Charm:
Status: OPEX (April 18) nears, $31 calls gain delta if KWEB hits $31.
Impact: Volatility spikes April 17–18, favors quick OTE trades.
Explanation: Charm accelerates delta, amplifying sweep-to-OTE moves.
Timeframe Analysis:
Weekly (Exp. April 18):
OI: 65% calls ($31), 20% ($32), 15% puts ($30).
IV: Moderate (25%), rising on catalysts.
Stance: Bullish (calls dominate, breakout risk).
Monthly (Exp. May 2):
OI: Balanced (50% calls $32, 50% puts $29).
IV: Stable (~24%).
Stance: Neutral (consolidation likely).
3-Month (Exp. July 7):
OI: Call skew ($33–$35, 60% calls).
IV: Low (~22%).
Stance: Bullish (long-term upside).
Directional Bias:
Synthesis: Positive GEX ($31 pin), high call DEX (+0.3), moderate IV (25%), call-heavy OI (65% at $31), vanna (IV lift), charm (OPEX volatility), and ICT/SMC (buy-side sweep to $31.35, OTE at $30.10) suggest a bullish trend for April 14, with potential retracement post-sweep.
Why: Options data aligns with ICT/SMT (call OI = buy-side liquidity, OTE = dealer hedging zone), per AMT (LVN sweep, HVN reversal).
Action: Focus on $31 calls, highlight pinning vs. breakout. Video: “KWEB’s $31 call wall could pin or pop—perfect for an OTE play.”
Sympathy Plays
Correlated Assets:
MCHI (iShares MSCI China ETF): Tracks broader Chinese equities, rises ~2–3% if KWEB rallies (e.g., $31.50), due to shared holdings (Alibaba, Tencent).
BABA (Alibaba ADR): KWEB’s top holding, moves +3–4% on KWEB’s sweep to $31.35, driven by e-commerce/AI overlap.
Opposite Mover:
GLD (SPDR Gold ETF): Risk-off asset, fades ~1–2% if KWEB rallies (risk-on), as investors shift from safe havens to tech.
Why: Sympathy plays confirm sector momentum (Chinese tech), while GLD hedges tariff fears, per ICT/SMT sentiment.
Action: Monitor MCHI/BABA for confirmation, GLD for divergence. Video: “If KWEB pops, MCHI and BABA follow—watch gold for the flip side.”
Sector Positioning with RRG
Sector: Technology – Emerging Markets (China Internet).
RRG Position: Improving (vs. MCHI ETF).
Rationale: KWEB’s April 11 rally (+2.97%) outpaces MCHI (+2.1%), with RSI (~55) and call OI signaling strength. Tariff fears weaken absolute gains, but relative momentum grows.
Tie-In: Improving quadrant supports bullish MSS, OTE entries at HVN ($30.00).
Why: RRG aligns with sentiment (call-heavy) and technicals (above HVN), per AMT value area.
Action: Highlight Improving RRG for video: “KWEB’s gaining steam in China tech—prime for a sweep setup.”
Targets
Bullish:
Target: +3.5% to $31.60.
Levels: W-High ($31.35), LVN ($31.50), next resistance ($32.00).
Rationale: Buy-side sweep to $31.35 (W-High), breakout to LVN on Retail Sales or tariff relief, per ICT/SMC.
Bearish:
Target: -3.2% to $29.55.
Levels: D-Low ($29.41), below W-Open ($29.59), HVN ($29.50).
Rationale: Sell-side sweep below $29.41 on weak Retail Sales or tariff escalation, retracing to HVN, per AMT.
Why: Targets tie to OHLC (W-High, D-Low), HVNs/LVNs, and catalysts, ensuring ICT/SMC alignment (liquidity to OTE).
Instructional for my brother. IThis is a bad swing trade, it is under the 180 day moving average. You wouldn't enter this using a swing trading system alone, its more advanced to identify. But you can see the yellow line I drew, that is strong resistance. That means the price don't want to go below that line.
I put what a trade would look like on it. You see how in this trade there is much more green than red? That is a good risk to reward ration.
Now here is CBOE. See how the green and red of this projected trade are nearly equal? Yeah, that is a bad risk to reward ration. At a 1:1 (that is for each dollar you can gain, you are risking) you are at a coin toss odds. Which is better than gambling but isn't trading.
You pretty much have the gist of Bravo simple trading, these are more advanced things. IF you are trading, you want to know where you will set your stop loss and where you will set your take profit BEFORE you buy anything. And then set those with the trade. That way you know beforehand what a worse case scenario looks like. If you do this, you will very likely succeed in the long run.
DID THE S&P 500 BOTTOM? MASSIVE STOCK MARKET RALLY INCOMING????Our indicator just printed a super rare signal on the weekly chart, let's discuss what this means for the future of the stock market and why this may be one of the best buying opportunities for the long term.
Because historically, this indicator prints green when it's been the best time to buy to prepare for the next 5-10 years of bullish price action
$NASDAQ:QQQI dip and rip back to $48 then to $52www.tradingview.com
*MAKE SURE YOU CLICK GRAB THIS CHART*
NASDAQ:QQQI
*DISCLAIMER* view on PC for best info and this is not financial advice
POC1 : $48
POC2 : $52 with a high end band potential of $54
HIGH YIELD DIVIDENDS with a current %15.89 12 month yield and an EXPENSE RATIO of %0.65
IMO the ROC and Yield will go higher due to Current market instability and Volatility
ALL POC indicators are pulling the price action towards my targets
AUM is UP
YIELD is UP
ACCUMULATION is UP
RSI is HEALTHY
EXPENSE RATIO is stable
NASDAQ:QQQI 's strategy is also one of the more tax efficient high income ETF's making it one of the better options for DRIP investing
AGAIN NFA but GLTA!
MSTY trading ideaThis upcoming week is pretty important for Bitcoin: when the tariffs are over, there is a fundamental opportunity for investors, not also that, but the technical chart may be has some justification too. In particular, MSTY is a ticker who has an incredible dividend yield of 154 % so it really helps to maintain the position even when it dips.
My short term target is 21.65 🚀🟢
What do you Think?💥
Stay safe 💜
Sebastian.
$GLD - bullish momentum soon to stallHello, I was bullish on AMEX:GLD for a bit and now examining the charts, multiple frames, this may be setting up for a good short. If geopolitics and tariff talks deescalate then this should cool off. The Elliot wave placed indicates some time for a correction/pull back on this hot commodity and the candle on the Daily from Friday is a spinning stop doji which can indicate reversal in an uptrend. Also, we have so many gaps up that happened in 3 day span, crazy actually. I labeled areas of targets to fill these gaps. Expecting a retracement to $280.
WSL.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Overview For 4-12 : Thank youThis video is mostly a big thank you for all the great comments and questions over the past few weeks.
I've been posting these videos on TradingView for almost a year and the types of viewers/followers I've been gaining is incredible.
You guys & gals have really impressed me with your questions and engagement. Many of you follow me for months without ever commenting or asking any questions.
I received a call from a client/follower in Alberta last night and he reported last week's gains at over 300% by following my videos.
I received a message from another TV follower saying he's been following my videos for many months and, after a bad loss a few years back, he has decided to give trading another go.
I've stated it before and I'll keep saying it.. I'm not trying to scam you out of anything. I'm trying to show you the RIGHT SKILLS and TECHNIQUES for you to learn to become a better, more skilled trader.
The way I look at it is like this...
If I can teach you half of what I know and see on the charts, then you guys will be able to achieve so much greater success and have gained/retained the knowledge to do it on your own.
You watch me do it over and over on these charts. Guess what - you are LEARNING at the same time.
Now, after a couple of years of doing this and following my videos, you've GAINED an education on how to trade more efficiently, manage risk more efficiently, and achieve your trading goals (I hope).
Right now, I'm getting messages/comments from people saying they are making 200%, 300%, 500%, or more every week or two from my videos.
That is absolutely incredible. I just want to urge you to remember I'm not 100% perfect in predicting the markets. No one EVER really is 100% perfect at it.
In the long run, as long as you don't get super greedy, you'll survive any minor losses and live to trade another day.
That is probably the most important thing I can teach you - trade within a proper scale to your RISK LEVEL. Never BET THE FARM on your trades. Always have a 50% to 70% cash reserve.
Anyway. Thank you. I really appreciate all of you.
Hope you enjoy this video.
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