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Change in market theme. Bullish Variables in Favor: +2 rate cuts probabilities now above the 0 rate cuts. 3 rate cuts 100% increase. Reversal in trend from Jan 13 +TLT has breakout the downtrend coming from DEC, correlated too with the US10Y failing to break 2024 Highs. +PPI lower than expected 0.2 vs 0.4 m/m +CPI 2.9 as expected / Core lower 0.2 vs 0.3 +Risk On Assets Turning, Total2 ( Crypto marketcap excludingBTC) is up 15% from Jan 13 +Risky sectors outperfoming ARKK. +Vix -30% from Jan 13 +DT possesion on Monday 20 Techinal variables: + Failed breakdonw in market indexes levels Cat 8-9 + RSI at 30 in the 4h plus cross of the MA, positive. + Squeeze momentum to the downside over, near 0 +Reclaim above of the monthly vwap on QQQ-SPY Still in look: +Downtrendline coming from DEC ATH, Market testing now +Retail sales tomorrow In my case because I'm long from yesterday it will be easier to hold into tomorrow, but for a position opened today I'm less sure. Because of the retail sales and the trendline, can be normal to have a pullback, and pick momentum on friday into monday.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by AJTRADER84
1
Possibly Breaking out of down trendI see a somewhat double rejection at 500-501 on the Daily. Right now, we are hovering around the Upside of this trend Channel & resistance level 516. I’m looking for a buy up to 519 then a reversal To 516 for double bottom to Break out of the trend we’ve been in. If we fail to a double bottom at 516 And Sell through 516 we remain in a Weekly down trend for . 519 is the level to get on the other side of. Also keep in mind Donald Trump will be inaugurated on Monday. I think this will affect the markets volatility. We May see Strong buys.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by MuggaMatrix
EEM - LongFundamental Analysis: The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) tracks the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which includes stocks from developing economies like China, India, Brazil, and South Korea. These economies often experience higher growth rates than developed markets due to industrialization, increasing consumer spending, and favorable demographic trends. Here are some fundamental reasons to consider buying EEM: Growth Potential in Emerging Markets: Emerging markets are expected to grow faster than developed markets, driven by factors like expanding middle-class populations, urbanization, and increasing adoption of technology. The IMF projects strong GDP growth for countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index over the next few years, which could support corporate earnings growth. Valuation Discount: Emerging market equities currently trade at a discount to developed markets, such as the U.S., on a price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) basis. This presents an attractive entry point for long-term investors. Weakening U.S. Dollar: Emerging market assets tend to benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar, as many countries in the index rely on exports priced in USD. Recent signals from the Federal Reserve about slowing interest rate hikes or potential rate cuts could lead to dollar depreciation, boosting emerging market equities. Commodity Strength: Many countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index are resource-rich, and rising commodity prices due to global infrastructure spending and energy transitions could support their economies. China Reopening and Recovery: As the largest weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, China's post-COVID recovery could be a significant tailwind for EEM, supported by stimulus measures and a rebound in domestic demand. Technical Analysis: From the chart provided, several technical indicators suggest now may be a good time to initiate a position in EEM: Support at Regression Channel: The chart shows a multi-year linear regression channel with price currently testing the lower end of the channel (red zone). This lower boundary acts as strong support, suggesting a potential reversal to the upside. Fibonacci Support Level: EEM is holding around a key Fibonacci retracement level, a zone often associated with buying interest. Historically, this level has acted as a reliable support zone. Oversold Conditions: Price action appears oversold relative to the broader trend within the regression channel. The recent pullback provides an opportunity to buy near technical support rather than chasing prices higher. Volume Confirmation: The volume profile indicates a higher level of activity around the current price range, signifying potential accumulation by institutional investors or long-term buyers. Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Initiating a position near the bottom of the regression channel provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Upside potential extends to the mid or upper parts of the channel, while downside risk is limited by nearby support. Bollinger Band and Mean Reversion: Although Bollinger Bands are not explicitly visible in this chart, prices appear to be in an extended move toward the lower range of the regression channel, which typically precedes a mean-reversion move higher. Strategy: From a fundamental perspective, EEM is attractive due to its valuation discount, expected GDP growth, and macroeconomic tailwinds (e.g., a weaker dollar, commodity strength). From a technical perspective, the ETF is at a strong confluence of support levels, providing an excellent entry point with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Investors can consider initiating a position now and scaling into it further if EEM confirms a reversal upward. Setting a stop-loss just below the lower regression channel boundary will help mitigate downside risk. You said: I like this but remove the fibonocci entry. ChatGPT said: Here’s the revised analysis without mentioning Fibonacci levels: Fundamental Analysis: The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) tracks the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which includes stocks from developing economies like China, India, Brazil, and South Korea. These economies often experience higher growth rates than developed markets due to industrialization, increasing consumer spending, and favorable demographic trends. Here are some fundamental reasons to consider buying EEM: Growth Potential in Emerging Markets: Emerging markets are expected to grow faster than developed markets, driven by factors like expanding middle-class populations, urbanization, and increasing adoption of technology. The IMF projects strong GDP growth for countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index over the next few years, which could support corporate earnings growth. Valuation Discount: Emerging market equities currently trade at a discount to developed markets, such as the U.S., on a price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) basis. This presents an attractive entry point for long-term investors. Weakening U.S. Dollar: Emerging market assets tend to benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar, as many countries in the index rely on exports priced in USD. Recent signals from the Federal Reserve about slowing interest rate hikes or potential rate cuts could lead to dollar depreciation, boosting emerging market equities. Commodity Strength: Many countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index are resource-rich, and rising commodity prices due to global infrastructure spending and energy transitions could support their economies. China Reopening and Recovery: As the largest weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, China's post-COVID recovery could be a significant tailwind for EEM, supported by stimulus measures and a rebound in domestic demand. Technical Analysis: From the chart provided, several technical indicators suggest now may be a good time to initiate a position in EEM: Support at Regression Channel: The chart shows a multi-year linear regression channel with price currently testing the lower end of the channel (red zone). This lower boundary acts as strong support, suggesting a potential reversal to the upside. Oversold Conditions: Price action appears oversold relative to the broader trend within the regression channel. The recent pullback provides an opportunity to buy near technical support rather than chasing prices higher. Volume Confirmation: The volume profile indicates a higher level of activity around the current price range, signifying potential accumulation by institutional investors or long-term buyers. Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Initiating a position near the bottom of the regression channel provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Upside potential extends to the mid or upper parts of the channel, while downside risk is limited by nearby support. Bollinger Band and Mean Reversion: Although Bollinger Bands are not explicitly visible in this chart, prices appear to be in an extended move toward the lower range of the regression channel, which typically precedes a mean-reversion move higher. Strategy: From a fundamental perspective, EEM is attractive due to its valuation discount, expected GDP growth, and macroeconomic tailwinds (e.g., a weaker dollar, commodity strength). From a technical perspective, the ETF is at a strong confluence of support levels, providing an excellent entry point with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Investors can consider initiating a position now and scaling into it further if EEM confirms a reversal upward. Setting a stop-loss just below the lower regression channel boundary will help mitigate downside risk. Entry Price $41.50 - $42.50 Lont Term Price Target $47.00
AMEX:EEM
by tynichols
Next target around $62The last few days showed a clear retest of the the upwards channel. Moneymakers, algo's and the big boys showed that the previous weekly and daily demand levels held very firmly as they didn't even enter the zone, but rather stayed/behaved nicely in the channel. With Trump and team talking office in about 5 days, we have a very compelling set of rule changes that are going to be implemented shortly (and play out at least over the next 2+ years!) that will benefit all businesses including the small caps, and in anticipation of the this, the truck was backed up and loaded to the brim. We were lucky enough to participate both in the first zone, and the second zone below that, to load up. Always good to buy in 1/3 increments to keep your powder dry. The upper test of the $54 area showed that there is heavy selling pressure there, but we have weakened the supply zone substantially as we stayed there for quite a few days. Expectations are that this move will play out over the next several months, possibly into the summer and ultimately end somewhere around the $62 range as highlighted by the green circle. There is another supply zone above that, which we've never retested, so that means it will bounce hard off that selling pressure. Good luck to all, and do your own due diligence. This post is for entertainment purposes only. And for me to document my own journey in this trade for my kids to see how it works, then call me out as either a dad than knows what they're doing, or call my bluff.
AMEX:TNALong
by ep7
Not great for bulls, but whose trying to short a hole?Lot of gap downs, lot of rallies getting faded. Bears are cautiously in control. News can change things in an instant. I do believe we are closer to the end of this correction, but geopolitical issues are starting to come up that may keep things suppressed or sideways. Biggest risk/reward is aiming for a rally up by EOM. Perhaps when bad news takes a break. We do have an inflation reading release next week, could be nail in the coffin. Overall, I am starting a bullish position. More likely we see pops a relief gap ups from here. Maybe/probably wrong, but anyone opening a short position down here is clearly chasing and may find themselves becoming liquidity for overnight moves where all they can do is watch...
AMEX:SPYLong
by Tstevesminus3600
12
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 1-15 Followup: Rally Into Jan 20-23This video was started to highlight the incredible predictive capabilities of my SPY Cycle Patterns and longer-term Cycle Research. It seems almost impossible to be able to somewhat accurately predict future price moves - but I'm able to do it with moderate success - sometimes months and years into the future. What does that mean to you - well, it should mean you want to pay attention to my research/videos and learn how to take advantage of my continued research. This video highlights why the Doom-sayers are wrong. The markets will continue to trend upward until the 2030-2033 peak. That's when traders need to be prepared for a broad market downtrend. But, it sure is fun getting emails and announcements from all the people that are now calling for a "great reset" to take place. It may happen in certain countries, but this is a market of economies - not a single economic market. What happens in some countries does not always happen to all countries. As the old saying goes - this is a market of stocks, not a stock market. Get ready - the next 5+ years should be full of incredible opportunities for skilled traders. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
The chart I am posting is The road map for QQQ The chart I am posting is that of the QQQ and what should be the pattern if We are going to see a Final 5th wave to 561 plus or minus 2 . I called for a major turn 11/29 to 12/5 from this we should see a panic or a corrective wave structure I have a grouping of 6 spiral turn from jan 19 to the 25th .I have sold All my longs as we hit price targets for the first leg up and to form the ABC rally .What next possible pattern is abc up for wave 1 or A we should see now a pullback in an abc decline back to 50 % from this we should see wave C up in the form of 12345 a 5 waves rally and break Above the down trend line as Most everyone will then get on board . The MATH projection IF and I say IF the turn of 11/29 to 12/5 was just the top of wave 3 of 5 then we will see the HIGH for 2025 at 561 plus or minus 2 I have dates of FEB 14 and march 13th As MAJOR turns based on the fib cycles and Spirals . You should wait to see conformation . in the pullback before buying longs again . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
NASDAQ:QQQ
by wavetimer
Opening (IRA): URTY February 21st 41 Covered Call... for a 39.07 debit. Comments: Adding in at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. I would prefer using TNA, since it's more liquid and has more expiries available, but already have a position on in TNA where the short call strike is at or above the -75, so don't want to add here. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 39.07/share Max Profit: 1.93 ROC at Max: 4.94% 50% Max: .97 ROC at 50% Max: 2.47% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call if the setup doesn't hit my take profit.
AMEX:URTYLong
by NaughtyPines
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-15 : Inside BreakawayToday is going to be a very interesting day. Mortgage data came in very strong, while CPI data came in moderately weaker. That is setting up a very strong GAP RALLY phase in the markets. Shorts are going to get SQUEEZED HARD this morning, and I suspect we may see a carry-through rally lasting most of the day. Be cautious of a pullback after the big GAP opening (higher) this morning. Gold and Silver are attempting to move higher - which is perfect if the US Dollar weakens moderately. Overall, Gold and Silver are attempting to hedge risk factors into 2025. Bitcoin will likely run into resistance just below $100k and attempt to fall downward again. This is a very exciting week because it appears the markets are shaking off the debt/credit/yields concerns and moving back to normal. Remember, where else will investors place their capital for Growth and Returns - other than the US? As I see it, the US markets are still the 900lb Gorilla in the global markets simply because of the ability of the US economy to rebound and recover much quicker than other foreign economies. Get some. BIG SHORT SQUEEZE this morning. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
$SPY January 15th, 2025AMEX:SPY January 15th, 2025 15 minutes As the numbers are below 200 averages in 15 minutes, I will short. For the fall 595 to 575 we have ascillator divergence, therefore, taking 575.35 as the low, drawing extension for the move 575.5 to 585 to 578.35, we have a first target of 588 and second target of 594 levels For the fall 597.75 to 575.35 we have 0.618 retracement at 590 - 591 levels. That is the level I will short. However, we have 200 averages at 588 levels, therefore the short will give us only $2 profit. Since the risk to reward is not good, we have to wait for the first 15 minute bar to form to see how the close is located, either near top or near bottom. As written many times, gaps which are unfilled are strong, therefore if we get the first bar close near top, keeping the low of the bar as stoploss, we have to go long. The reason is the values become above 200 averages, therby triggering a buy.
AMEX:SPY
by RiderTrader
4