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SPY - RISK OF BEAR MARKET VERY REALTrumps tariffs is going to be the catalyst for a bear market that the US needs to have. I'm expecting a 30% - 40% drop at most but don't worry, it will be a good time to buy when the dust settles. The RSI is painting bearish divergence on monthly. Big sign of drop. The MACD is curving downwards. Also a big sign that we'll be dropping soon. Bear cycles typically last only 1 year. But its alright, I'll be there to buy spy when its cheap because I have confidence in the US to produce cool new things and figure out new innovations. Also intrest rates will drop, money printer go BRRR and dumb money flows back into the space.
AMEX:SPY
by HorseyTim
SPY Trade Review – Potential Pop and Flop SetupI’m tracking a potential pop and flop scenario forming on SPY. There’s a setup for a possible 5.5% move higher, followed by the opportunity for a larger short of up to 15% toward final downside targets. SPY and its key influencers, including the Magnificent Seven , are currently rebounding off significant support levels. This could allow for continued upside before running into major resistance. As highlighted in the chart, we may see a further push higher of approximately 5.5% , taking us into the weekly/daily high support lost zone at $564 . If this level acts as firm resistance and price reverses, a break below $549.83 (our trigger for adding short exposure) could lead to a significant selloff. Downside targets include: - Target 1: $502 - Target 2: $476.30 (a potential new local low) A daily or weekly close above $564.52 would invalidate this short setup. This is a high time frame setup , but I’ve shown it on the 4-hour chart for greater clarity. Now we wait and see!
AMEX:SPY
by ViciTradingSolutions
2
I SPY and link with US Debt..do you Waldo?Its not hard to find correlations in life...but this seems a little blatant. So I thought I would show that only one debt shelf ever resulted in no fall after it occurrs...an interesting finding... But just think of this logic...If the bonds are rising in a solid manner to the toon of even the 3 month going from 2022 levels of .002% to now some 4.2% or so....why does anyone think that things can keep going up when you fund everything but what you need in the country. Lets give you guys some homework: how much debt was spent on new highway improvements on bridges and tunnels(i see you lincoln), expressways etc. how much debt was used to build major power generation in Cali and NY so their brown outs aren't so bad....to which I say, those two states should just suck it up and allow more data centers so silly cat pics or anime can be generated on GPUs eh?? how much debt was actually spent on the poor condition of sports complexes or school infrastructure so to give children the ability to play...so that the NFL doesn't have to try for like 3 month to encourage play-60....only an hour of play folks...yeah, that'll keep the Coke sugars well balanced eh? Finally how much debt was spent towards improving the very secondary and neglicted hard educations...or what some call vo-tech, which you need to repair/build these mass construction projects and splice cables over 200 feet in the air on mountainsides involving high tension wires after hurricanes like Helene barrel through places. Yeah..well its about as much as the fellow "make this place great again" person has contributed their time and a bit of their NVDA or PLTR proceeds to a local community center or to a local youth developmental program for kids in rough neighborhoods....oh wait...that's for the government to do, so they can blame government for over spending on...the things above??? As two members of royalty I attended school with, both from active kings who sent a princess and prince to two of my schools said, "When they realize there are more of them then US, you begin to see a shift in attitude which makes US accountable. But when they think the few of US are more powerful then all of them combined you can see how your people believe in shadow governments or Illuminati( another name for "Deep State" back in that era..hmm where did that go eh??). Cause the whole government is made up of neighbors and the military is made up of college friends or past coworkers- but only simpletons think a title or a uniform/suit makes everything change- it doesn't". another idea later tonight and linked in the comments after posting will show the 10 year yield and its relation to following crashes
AMEX:SPY
by CYQOTEK
2nd post of I SPY no reason for Bond shock as rates riseWhy is everyone shocked about rates rising as the market moves down...its seems to fit the logic as stated and is the Newtonian force-action see-saw: You buy bonds and the interest rate goes down....you sell them and or don't purchase and they must go up in yield. How has that been broken with the chart I have shown. Well it's due to outside structures forcing a "paper trade" kind of, technical analysis wishy washy, excuse of why things are not moving as they should. Well, you didn't want to face the music after 2003 so the printer ripped right into the bank pockets, "protecting inflation from the little man". Well that caused 2008, which needed even more bank help even though they got a bunch since 2003 (see previous post and the debt rocketing after 2008) So now you need to slam more debt, circa 2008, and the bonds are being bought cause the market basically went nowhere for another 6 or 7 years.....But then there was a change to how things were run....a loosening per say: Now the banks can play in the stock market once the downturn of 16 started and the Entertainer was brought in to keep people pacified as things were turning down( almost like now, eh?). You see the magic rainbow that occurred from '15 to '16, well that was a last ditch effort to save the banks coughing up blood from terrible investments. So as I said, the Entertainer was brought in to pacify everyone to allow for the cutting of rates and "Dow to the Moon"...(kinda reminds you of "bitcoin to the moon" now, no?) and that worked until 2018...one more cut and print jober while stacking the market was attempted but now the foreign banks were going down and China refused to help the US after its initial injection in 2008. So, rates are slashed, you crash in 19 and you need something to kind of start to take people's attention off how everything is going down around them(kinda like now with tariffs or fentenyl crap, eh?)....maybe to target that big nation who refused any more bond help or financial backing...like China maybe. Hence the cough was rolled out to allow emergency powers acts to engage and the secrecy of money moving was shrouded from eyes under said act...kinda like in 2001...huh, wonder if related somehow. Well this was supposed to cripple foreign entities, especially Russia, since the US was already arming Ukraine under the Entertainer who no one cared to see what he signed off on, both his planeloads of money and weapons to the Z-man...then that Shoulder sticker which conveniently everyone has forgotten he solely pushed and claimed "beautiful responsibility for"---didn't that ruin career and cost lives...hmm, 2001 connection again, who knows, but you know. So why does this explain the bonds turning around...it's due to the countries of the East seeing the coordinated NATO response to said cough and the banking sectors getting mass injections of cash to try and undo liabilities that went bad. However, this caused them to turn that cash into working capital by pumping stocks and signing mass M&A deals and all from all the companies going under or being crippled from the cough...again, damn near as convenient as those passports being fireproof, lucky be a lady. So now you engage in the bonds climbing with the market cause there is no money in bonds yielding like 1 or less percent...but when you have unemployment money, crypto money, and payment protection plan money screaming into the market...you stop it all for midterm elections and then the crash of '22 in fall occurs. But hold on to your laces buddy, Pelosi Put is to the rescue with a Chips act which fuels all the "AI" to suddenly become a thing apparently, even though its been in every video game since like 2008-9 and was basically the Alexa and Siri,....so way to fall for that one people. Well that caused dollar stocks to rip into 100, 200, even a 3000 dollar Mexican grille stock... burritos with a 800-900 PE ratio...good analysis there guys. So the bonds feel neglected and have to hike up their skirt a little more to get attention, to which Russia catches a sniff and asked the US to hold its Beer while the Bear goes to town on their Proxy they were arming since the Entertained was slipped in, in 2016. So The Bear gets sanctioned to "hell and back" while having foreign accounts and treasuries either seized or frozen (hey, where did the 'seize not freeze' story go..hmm). So now no foreigner can trust holding US based assets and the purge begins which really moves the bonds in a fast hurry. Finally, you have the genius idea to slap the Dragon's ass while he is busy making your stuff that you agree to teach him how to make and then build for you- well everyone saw that public pissing match and reveled XI has the ability to be a sundial if its a clear day out, and he delivered the worst pain shot right back..."Sup Bra', did you say something- we forgot we even do business with you again" So now you have a country with a population that can buy the hell out of anything, not buying anything due to being a culture of savers(unlike the credit card addicts of the US) suddenly being encouraged to improve their lives and become a tiny bit American and have like heated slippers and maybe a water sprinkler for their dog. So if you think that Uncle Sam is the back breaker of the dear 'ol Dragon...you may need to visit your nearest supply house and see what is on the barcode sticker; if it says USA, see where its base metals, resins, and catalyst chemicals are from...then ask who needs who. Basically....you slashed rates rather than having like 4 recessions as of now...kinda like the Ozempic people who can't go back in their photo gallery and pinpoint the year they just suddenly were dangerously overweight...nope, just woke up to it...couldn't do a more meat heavy, low insulin driving meal..."gots to keep Frito Lays and the boys at Kraft/Nabisco employed". Well you skipped 4 recessions and you froze foreign assets for no reason and then you decided to let banks play with free money to prop the stock market up- *see JPM has ass earning outside of trading desk...PS MBS and Commercial Real Estate is dead :) >>So that's why bond yields go up and they need the fed to cut...but it seems since 2022 the 3 month bond went from 0.002% to 4.3 or so as of today....good one fellas, practically within 2 years and you scream higher causing all this debt to roll over at higher rates, like aforementioned Commercial Real Estate having to refinance every 5, 8, or 11 years per many contracts...well 5 years ago a 3 month would be cheap...even a 7 or 10 year at about a percent or less ...but not now...some of my buddies are saying 8% is a dream and 15% is becoming a nightmare in that space...but hey, be like a fat American...make everyone do stuff for you and then wonder why you are on Ozempic and now have intestinal peristalsis problems and feel like SH1t all the time :)
AMEX:SPY
by CYQOTEK
$QQQ Poised for Lift-Off: Flipping Resistance, Eyeing $470-$475!🚀 NASDAQ:QQQ Poised for Lift-Off: Flipping Resistance, Eyeing $470-$475! 🚀 As mentioned in my recent post, we’ve successfully flipped the $443.14 resistance into support—a key technical shift! 🔹 Momentum Building: - Wr% Indicator: Making higher lows and advancing steadily towards the Red Barrier. - Volume Gap: Still in play and ready to be filled. With a higher low now established, I believe we’re set up for a potential move to $470-$475 next week. 📈 Let’s see how this plays out—exciting times ahead! 💡 Have an amazing weekend, friends! Not financial advice
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by RonnieV29
Ishares 20+ Treasury Bond | TLT | Long in the $90sIshares 20+ Treasury Bond NASDAQ:TLT are particularly sensitive to interest rates: the price moves up when they are lowered and down when they rise. Locally, I'm witnessing banks lower their interest rates for CDs and shorten the duration for those with high-yielding returns. The general political rhetoric, especially due to the election cycle, is a push for the Federal Reserve to drop them. Now, despite the possible negative economic implications of lowering interest rates too soon if inflation is high, there is a good probability they may be lowered (even slightly) in 2024... perhaps September? This analysis isn't to time the bottom perfectly, though. Instead, it's a probability assessment. Personally, TLT in the low $90s is in a long-term "buy-zone". Target #1 = $104 Target #2 = $122 Target #3 = $170+ (very long-term view / economic crash... let's hope not, though)
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by WorthlessViews
iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond | TLT | Long in the $80sFor the patient, one of the "safest" investments is in long-term treasury bonds (specifically NASDAQ:TLT ). For those who may not understand why, bond prices move inversely to yields. If interest rates drop (which the Federal Reserve has stated is going to happen this year), NASDAQ:TLT will rise. If interest rates rise (like what happened in early 2022), NASDAQ:TLT will fall. But all information from the Federal Reserve points to interest rate cuts starting this year *or* in the near future. As of April 1st, 2025, the dividend yield for NASDAQ:TLT is 4.52%. That interest rate beats the vast majority of savings accounts right now. I don't think we will see NASDAQ:TLT prices in the $80's longer than a year or two. A contrarian may argue "inflation is rising!", but the data continue to point to it actually stabilizing. Yes, prices are higher compared to 4-5 years ago for just about everything... but the higher prices are "stable". Tariffs may put a slight wrinkle in this stability in the near-term, but I think the economy is already slowing and the Federal Reserve will be pressured to start dropping interest rates sooner than later. I believe a global economic bust is inevitable - but no one knows when. Anyone who says they can time it is a charlatan. If/when a global economic bust occurs, the Federal Reserve will drop interest rates (like what happened in 2020) to get the economy juiced up again. NASDAQ:TLT will double in price or go further. My general point is I *believe* NASDAQ:TLT is nearing a low and any future declines (especially below $80) are personal opportunities for buy-and-hold. It's a solid hedge with a good dividend. Options don't give you that and timing events is a guessing game for every retail trader. So, as someone who tries to think beyond the "now", I am gathering shares, enjoying the dividend, and not touching them until a global economic bust occurs. Currently holding positions at $85, $86, $87, and $90. Targets: 2027: $100.00 2028: $105.00 2029: $110.00 2030: $115.00 Bust (unknown timing): $170+
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by WorthlessViews
04/07 GEX + Historic VIX Highs: Extreme Volatility with OptionsWow, where to begin? We’ve just come through a week that even the most thorough analysts found surprising. Last Friday’s brutal sell-off triggered such a massive margin call rally that even the hedge funds were forced to exit gold—which is usually considered a safe haven—on Friday. The VIX is at a historic high — no joke. We last saw levels like this during the 2008 crisis and the COVID panic in 2020. 📌 High IV = High Theta When implied volatility (IV) is high, theta (the time decay of options) is also high. This means that maintaining long put protection becomes extremely expensive. From a broker’s hedging perspective, if they are short expensive put options, they can gradually buy back their futures positions over time (all else being equal). As IV rises, this buyback becomes increasingly attractive for them. Let’s look at our weekly SPY analysis using GEX Profile (Gamma Exposure) indicator first: It’s definitely not a cheerful chart! * Below 520: We have strikes dominated by puts. The largest negative GEX “profit-taking zone” sits at 490. If price reaches that level and the support fails (the previous major bottom from April 2024), we could move even further down into a very wide negative squeeze zone, possibly as far as 445. * HVL zone: 520–546: A choppy area around the gamma flip. * Above 546: This would signal a +10-15% rally, putting us in a positive gamma zone. However, such a scenario currently seems unlikely—at least based on the gamma levels we see right now. I won’t sugarcoat it: we’re at levels now where the market could easily move 10% in either direction. So, in my view, forget about conservative option strategies with flat delta exposure. 🤔 What Can We Do? Important: This analysis reflects my personal opinion only. It’s primarily for those looking to speculate in this highly uncertain environment. If you’re holding put options strictly as a hedge, then this may not be directly relevant to you. In these conditions, the number one rule is to survive—hedges are meant to protect assets or guard against margin calls, not to make profit. Currently, IV (implied volatility) and VIX are at historic highs. For them to stay this elevated, we’d need new negative headlines and further major market drops. While that could certainly happen, statistically it becomes less and less likely as time goes on. Buying Put Options …. no way? First off, there are plenty of challenges if you plan to buy put options right now—most of all their cost. Put options are nearly twice as expensive as calls in many cases. Does this mean I recommend selling puts or put spreads? I’m not saying you shouldn’t, but be aware: this isn’t for the faint-hearted or for beginners (the risk is high!). It might be worth exploring butterfly or vertical debit spread strategies, as our goal remains the same as always: to maximize the risk–reward ratio. 🐂 If You’re Bullish This might sound like a ninja move, but one possibility is to buy call butterfly spreads. Yes, the market could still drop—that’s absolutely possible. But statistically, it’s becoming less likely that we’ll see another huge leg down without some form of rebound. - Slight Move Up: In the event of a mild rise, call spreads and call butterfly strategies can significantly outperform a simple long call. The short legs in a spread/fly offset high theta costs and mitigate the negative effects of falling IV. - Even with a +10% Move: A long call is often still not the best choice in this environment—even if the option goes deep in the money. Where Call Spread/Butterfly Can Fail If stocks rally 15–20% or more and IV also increases (which would be unprecedented in just a few days). If the market crashes and VIX spikes above 100 (IV would skyrocket, raising the cost of all options further). Cheap Bullish Calendar Spread In a situation like this, even a cheap calendar spread can be a good play — the risk is relatively low, especially if managed well and the breakeven range is wide. Of course, if implied volatility drops, the spread could narrow, but that would likely come with a market rally, which theta can help capitalize on. 🐻 If You’re Bearish I strongly advise against buying single-leg puts, even on a 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiration) basis. If you’re convinced the market will keep dropping, I’d only consider debit spreads, aiming for a solid risk–reward ratio (in my case, I look for at least 1:2 risk-to-reward). ⚖️ If You Want to Stay Neutral / Omni bullish If you prefer not to pick a direction, you could try to capitalize on historically high IV with a May-expiration Iron Condor. This is the classic TastyTrade approach, with the caveat that you must monitor GEX levels and IV daily and adjust the far side as needed. Risk Management: If the spot price threatens one of your short strikes, you probably shouldn’t wait around in this volatile environment. It’s usually better to close the position and take a small loss than to hope for a reversal—hoping can become very expensive! Conclusion The market is extremely volatile, and expensive options mean traditional strategies may not work as well as they usually do. Stay cautious, manage risk meticulously, and don’t be afraid to close out losing trades quickly. As always, surviving to trade another day is the most important rule.
AMEX:SPY
by TanukiTrade
5
Learning The Excess Phase Peak Pattern : How To Identify/Use ItThis new tutorial video is for all the new followers I have on TradingView who don't understand the Excess Phase Peak pattern (EPP) yet. I received a question from a new follower yesterday about the EPP patterns. He/She could not understand what they were or how to use/identify them. This video should help you understand what the EPP patterns are, how to identify them, how to trade with them, and how to identify/use proper expectations with them. I hope this video is informative and clear. Remember, price only does two things... FLAG or TREND - NOTHING ELSE And the EPP pattern is the CORE STRUCTURE of price that happens on all charts, all intervals, and all the time. The second pattern, the Cradle pattern, is part of the EPP pattern, but it acts as another price construct related to how to identify opportunities in price action. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by BradMatheny
DUST in Buy ZoneMy trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell when at three of these events happen: * Price tags the top or bottom of parallel channel zones * Money flow spikes beyond it's Bollinger Bands * Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at near oversold overbought level * Price at Fibonacci levels So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price in buying zone at bottom of channels Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level Money flow momentum is spiked negative and under at bottom of Bollinger Band Price near Fibonacci level Entry at $29.15 Target is upper channel around $36
AMEX:DUSTLong
by chancethepug
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-11 : Break-Away in CarryoverToday's Break-away pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move (break) away from yesterday's Body range. I believe this trend, after the recent Ultimate Low in price, will be to the upside. I know a lot of people are asking, "why do you think the markets are going to rally now - after you suggested the markets would trend downward?" Things have changed now that we have a 90-day pause in the tariff wars. Yes, China is still an issue - but the rest of the world seems to have a pause on the tariff wars as negotiations continue. I believe the removal of the tariff pressure on the markets will result in a moderate upward trend as we move into Q1:2025 earnings season. Still, I don't believe we will see new ATHs anytime soon. But I do believe the 580+ level on the SPY is a potential high price level that can be reached before the end of April 2025. Gold and Silver are moving into a GAP trend move today. I believe the GAP will be to the upside and I believe Gold and Silver will continue to rally. Silver is really low in terms of comparison to Gold. Silver could make a very big move to the upside over the next 30+ days. BTCUSD is still consolidating into the narrow range I suggested would happen before the bigger breakdown event near the end of April (into early May). Everything is playing out just as I expected. The big change is the removal of the tariffs for 75+ nations (for now). That will give the markets some room to the upside and we need to understand how price structure is playing out into an A-B-C wave structure. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by BradMatheny
22
SPY Analysis: Navigating Tariff-Induced VolatilityContinuing from my last update, market volatility remains high due to Trump's unpredictable policy decisions. After initially folding and offering economic relief, Trump pivoted sharply with a sudden 145% tariff announcement. Today, China countered strongly with a 125% tariff. These escalating tariff exchanges continue to create significant uncertainty and market fluctuations, highlighting the critical need for careful analysis and precise trade management. Technical Breakdown (4-Hour Chart) Current Price Zone: Around $528.45 Key Resistance Levels: - Immediate Resistance: $536.50 (L.Vol ST 1b) - Critical Resistance: $549.33 - $549.60 (L.Vol ST 2b) - Major Resistance Zone (Liberation Day): Approximately $562.16 Support Levels: - Initial Support: $523.67 (Best Price Short) - Secondary Support: $510.84 (L.Vol ST 1a) - Important Lower Support: $498.01 (L.Vol ST 2a) - Strong Support Level (Trump Folded area): ~$485.18 Trading Scenarios Bullish Scenario (Potential Tariff Tension Relief): - Entry Trigger: Confirmed breakout and sustained hold above resistance at $536.50. Profit Targets: - Target 1: $549.33 (next strong resistance level) - Target 2: $562.16 (major resistance) - Stop Loss: Below immediate support at $523.67, carefully managing downside risk. Bearish Scenario (Ongoing Tariff Escalation or Increased Market Fear): Entry Trigger: Inability to reclaim $536.50, or a decisive breakdown below support at $523.67. Profit Targets: - Target 1: $510.84 (nearest significant support) - Target 2: $498.01 (secondary critical support) - Target 3: $485.18 (robust support area) - Stop Loss: Above resistance at $536.50 to protect against potential reversals. Thought Process & Final Thoughts The SPY currently trades within clearly defined resistance and support bands, heavily influenced by unpredictable tariff-driven headlines. Trump's volatile policy shifts and China's assertive retaliations amplify short-term market risks. Maintain flexible trading strategies, adhere strictly to established levels, and practice disciplined risk management. Continuous monitoring and swift response to evolving market sentiment will be essential for navigating this challenging environment effectively.
AMEX:SPY
by HispanicHedge
1
"Disbelief Rally" back to 52 week HighsPrior plunges below this custom weekly Keltner channel have a good track record of highlighting buying opportunities. In simile terms.. when markets plunge too much and too fast, a great accumulation occurs with wild oscillations. After the accumulation will come a "disbelief rally" where the market will continue to rip higher in a concave down curve to the previous 52 week high leaving market participants in disbelief that we didn't retest the plunge levels again. Each dip in this "disbelief rally" becomes a great opportunity for long-style trades.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Audacity618
7