SPY at Critical Support! Reversal Incoming or More Downside? 📊 Technical Analysis (TA):
Trend & Structure:
SPY is in a clear downtrend, with multiple Break of Structure (BOS) signals confirming bearish dominance.
A recent Change of Character (ChoCH) attempt suggests a potential reversal, but confirmation is needed.
Key Resistance: ~598-610 (supply zone)
Support Zone: ~575-580 (current demand area)
Indicators Suggesting a Possible Reversal:
MACD: Showing signs of flattening, indicating potential momentum shift.
Stochastic RSI: Deeply oversold, increasing the likelihood of a short-term relief rally.
Volume Spike: Large volume at support, suggesting potential accumulation.
🔹 GEX & Options Flow:
Call Walls (Resistance) 🚧
610-615: Strong resistance area where gamma positioning is high.
620: Major call wall, indicating an upper limit if a strong rally occurs.
Put Walls (Support) 🛑
575: Highest negative NETGEX, meaning a break below this level could accelerate selling pressure.
570-560: Next major support levels if 575 fails.
IV Rank & Skew:
IVR 44.4, indicating mid-range implied volatility.
Puts are heavily favored at 112.2%, showing strong downside hedging.
Implied move ±0.33%, suggesting possible large swings.
📌 Trading Plan & Suggestions:
Bullish Reversal Scenario:
If SPY holds 580-585, we could see a bounce toward 598-610.
Ideal trade: April 590C or 600C, targeting a relief rally.
Bearish Breakdown Scenario:
If SPY loses 575, downside targets extend to 570-560.
Ideal Put Play: Buy March-April 580P or 570P, targeting 560.
⚠️ Key Warning: If SPY does not reclaim 590 quickly, expect continued selling pressure.
🔥 Conclusion: SPY at a Make-or-Break Level – Watch 575!
SPY is testing a key support zone with early reversal signals forming, but strong put positioning still favors downside risk. The next sessions will determine if bulls defend this zone or if we see another leg lower. Watch 575-580 closely before making a move! 🚀📉
🚨 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
